Real Estate Today - Insights, Predictions and Fishing

Curious about the latest shifts in the real estate market and how they could impact your next big move? Join us as Pete Heim returns from his Canadian fishing adventure to share invaluable insights into the current market dynamics. From a rise in days on the market to an increase in available homes, we break down the subtle changes that could mean big differences for buyers and sellers alike. Discover the surprising 6.3% increase in average sold prices and the evolving landscape of buyer purchasing ability, including the decline of cash buyers and the rise of government-backed loans (FHA/VA). We also tackle the challenges faced with lenders, making this an essential listen for anyone navigating today's market.

Thinking about building equity through homeownership? This episode is a must. We explore how short-term ownership can yield substantial gains and delve into the nuances of national and regional equity differences, from Pennsylvania to California. Get expert predictions on home prices and mortgage rates, and learn why purchasing in a strong resale neighborhood is crucial. As a special treat, we're gearing up for our 200th episode celebration on September 19th—catch a preview of the exciting live event featuring notable guests like Stephanie Taormina, Pete Heim, Hugo Cardona, Kevin Timochenko and many more! Tune in for a lively, informative, and celebratory episode that you won't want to miss!
#realestatemarket #homeequity #peteheim #bradweisman #2024Market

"Pete is back for another INFO packed episode to update you on all the latest in the Real Estate Market!  We have Stats, Opinions and Completely Off Topic Conversations that will keep you informed about all things Real Estate and MORE... Plus it's just a fun show!  Take a listen and spread the word!" - Brad Weisman

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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show (formerly known as Real Estate and YOU), where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife #realestateandyou

Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.

Transcript

Speaker 2: 0:20

From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad Wiseman Show and now your host, Brad Wiseman. All right, we are back. We're back here in the studio with a guy that totally snobbed us off last month. You know, Pete's usually here in the studio with us every month and then last month he decided we weren't good enough, Hugo, we just weren't good enough. But no, we've got Pete Heim back here. And you know, last month we had Mark Chaknisfield in view, very nicely.

Speaker 1: 0:58

I should have had a cardboard.

Speaker 2: 0:59

So what's your?

Speaker 1: 0:59

excuse when the hell were you? I should have had a cardboard. So what's your excuse when the hell?

Speaker 2: 1:02

were you, I should have had a cardboard cut out of Mark you should have. The best part about that podcast is when Hugo goes. You look very fit. That was hilarious. That was hilarious. I'm biting my tongue right now. He goes. Pete, you look very fit. This is G-rated.

Speaker 1: 1:17

I'm not saying anything.

Speaker 2: 1:19

Well, we missed you?

Speaker 1: 1:20

Yeah, mark is. He's a stud man.

Speaker 2: 1:23

He's probably 30 years younger too, or 25, something like that.

Speaker 1: 1:27

He's who I want to be when I grow up. Exactly, absolutely.

Speaker 2: 1:30

So where have you been? Where were you? I forget oh we were in Canada. I was in Canada. Oh, I love Canada. That's right fishing.

Speaker 1: 1:36

I took my boys fishing every year in Canada year in Canada. My brother came this time, which was it was great, oh, awesome, very cool. I mean, dude, there's nothing better than going out on the water with a guide. Oh yeah, you catch fish in the morning and he cooks it for you on the shore.

Speaker 2: 1:48

I've done that same thing with my dad, actually.

Speaker 1: 1:51

Isn't that funny. Yeah, it's a great time, it's a great bonding time, awesome time.

Speaker 2: 1:55

Let's jump into some real estate here. So obviously you haven't been here for last month, here for for last month, so there's a lot that's going on the market. The market is definitely, uh, moving in a different direction a little bit. Yeah, you know, we got some extra days on the market too. Um, yeah, exactly, it's two, it's two. And also there was at one point last week we had over, we had 380, some homes on the market, 388, right, which I haven't seen in a while, and it's been hanging now in that 370s.

Speaker 1: 2:23

When did it hit four? It was over four.

Speaker 2: 2:25

I think a month or so ago Was that over a month ago, it didn't last long.

Speaker 1: 2:30

No, it didn't last long, it's 374,. You said it's 374 today.

Speaker 2: 2:33

But I am noticing some things. You're not seeing the gazillions of showings right away.

Speaker 1: 2:46

You're not seeing the offers right away.

Speaker 2: 2:47

It is and, and even though it's only two days more right now, you said on the market right, that means that's an average and that's right. So you know, obviously there's some that were higher than that and some that were lower than that, but you know it's, I'm noticing it. There's definitely some stuff going on, so let's go over some of the numbers.

Speaker 1: 2:55

It's not nine months and it's not nine hours, you know, it's somewhere in between yeah right like 23. Like 23 days or something 23 days.

Speaker 2: 3:01

Yeah, is that what it is? Yeah, exactly 25, actually.

Speaker 1: 3:04

Yeah, yeah, because we haven't been well. The timing on this is we have the first half of the year stats now, and so what I did is I compared the first six months of this year to the first six months of last year.

Speaker 2: 3:15

Okay.

Speaker 1: 3:15

And absorption rate is pretty much one.

Speaker 2: 3:17

Okay.

Speaker 1: 3:18

And it's 0.9 now. And it was one last year, which doesn't really coincide with days on market, which is 25, and it was 23 last year at this time. And our company, keller Williams, by the way, was eight days on the market. Interesting, yeah, but the industry, the Bright MLS, no, I'm sorry, it's Berks. No, it's Berks County. Yeah, berks County is 25 days on the market average. Okay, here's the big one. Yeah, the average sold price the first six months of this year is 295,307. It's just under 300. Pretty much. That's amazing. Last year at this time it was 277,106. So we're still going up and that's a 6.3% increase.

Speaker 1: 3:58

Yeah, now, that said, that is not a true appreciation figure that's the first half of a year number which includes spring and stuff like that. We won't have that until January.

Speaker 2: 4:13

Right, because what will happen is the number of like the fall is in there, then, and everything else. So we'll have that in January, we'll have the numbers that actually show that. But you know what are you seeing as far as the quality of the buyer, are you noticing any difference with that? You know we had cash for. And when I say quality, we're not saying bad buyers, you're a bad buyer, you're bad, bad, very bad, no, but I'm talking about, like, the quality as far as the type of buyers, probably we should say Cash, you know.

Speaker 2: 4:42

Is it conventional? Is it FHA? Are we seeing Back to the guvies. Are we starting to do some?

Speaker 1: 4:48

government? Yeah, I think so I. I'm seeing more of it.

Speaker 2: 4:50

I'm seeing less cash.

Speaker 1: 4:51

I'm seeing less cash, less cash. Um, there are also, um I'm not going to say names, okay, but we are receiving more challenges, um, with a buyer and they're and they're in the signed contract stage. We are running into roadblocks again.

Speaker 2: 5:10

Yes.

Speaker 1: 5:10

I've heard that With lenders some certain lenders? Yeah, okay, and so that's telling me that there, yeah, there are some marginal buyers out there that are just eking in again which we didn't have. We didn't have that for a few years, really, because you were able to pick the best deal out of 20. Absolutely. Now we're getting one or two offers on a house. You're going to get back to that.

Speaker 2: 5:30

So the cream is. We're getting off the cream.

Speaker 1: 5:34

Yeah, and I think it's more of the lower price stuff really, because those are the people who are God, love them.

Speaker 2: 5:39

I mean they're trying, they're trying hard.

Speaker 1: 5:41

They want to get in there, but you have some lenders giving them the pie in guy promises and then it you run into issues. Yeah, so I'm, we're seeing some of that, I agree.

Speaker 2: 5:49

Yeah, I'm just seeing, I'm seeing a lot of different things in our office as a whole. I've been hearing some grumblings that some deals are falling apart. Yeah, so we're seeing a little bit more of which could actually be. Why the inventory has been staying a little bit higher is because some of the stuff has been sold or pending and then it comes back on the market, which then adds back to the inventory. But I am hearing that there's some challenges both in title and in lending. We're seeing some challenges and things that are just not going as smoothly and I think it's because, like I said, we are now getting back to the more normal type of lending, normal type of everything else.

Speaker 1: 6:32

That's right. But with that said, the question of should I wait to sell my house? And the answer is no, because it's still a strong seller's market.

Speaker 2: 6:42

Oh, absolutely.

Speaker 1: 6:43

As numbers indicate.

Speaker 2: 6:44

Absolutely.

Speaker 1: 6:45

And the second half of the year predictions are really good. They're really strong to still sell, yeah, and as a buyer, if you don't do it soon, you're going to miss out on the benefits of these numbers, absolutely so it's still a good time to transact. It really is.

Speaker 2: 6:59

Yep, yep, I agree 100%. I mean, if you're thinking you're going to wait a year and things are going to change we keep saying this every time we do the show is it's not. It's you know. We're looking at probably five. I still think five to seven years of five years of of appreciation. Hugo's jumping up and down over there Cause he bought his house last year. He's like man. My realtor is fricking off, so his realtor really gosh.

Speaker 1: 7:29

He was telling me at the right time to buy I'll. That's right. I could tell by the look on his face he's smiling I saw.

Speaker 2: 7:31

I saw dollar signs above his head. That's what I saw. Yeah, so you know, and you, and you thought we brought this up before you go, you thought you were at the top of the market. Right, we really did. And everybody thinks that that's right and and then it. But it's hard to say because we can't predict the future either. You, you know. But if we say to somebody, look, we don't think it's the top of the market, you know we could be wrong, right, I mean, something could happen that we, that was definitely not planned and it could change.

Speaker 1: 7:56

But I seriously it would take something big, in my opinion it would take something really big right now.

Speaker 2: 8:00

Huge yes, yeah, so five, I still think, a position where you're going to see prices still going up.

Speaker 1: 8:06

I agree.

Speaker 2: 8:07

I don't think there'd be 10 or 15% a year. I think they're going to be that five or six, five to seven, yeah, but it's still if you look at it this way. I was just talking to somebody that said that they were going to move within the next two years and for one I said to them they're going to rent, they're going to do it in two years.

Speaker 1: 8:35

It always turns out to be in three or four or sometimes five or all of a sudden.

Speaker 2: 8:38

They get a really good job here and they stay, yeah. So I said here's the thing you're going to pay monthly payment we talk about this all the time. Why not pay it to yourself instead of to the landlord? You, why not pay it to yourself instead of to the landlord? And I said here's the thing Even if it appreciates at 5% a year and you're here for two years, okay, that's 10%. That pays for realtor fee transfer tax. You know what I mean? That pays for right there.

Speaker 1: 9:02

It pays for everything right there.

Speaker 2: 9:03

So at least you would have the one thing that would be. The huge benefit would be the tax write-off of the interest Tax write-off.

Speaker 2: 9:08

Yep you know what I'm saying. So even if you, even if you sell in two years and you're completely even in two years you didn't gain anything or anything like that, you would, you would be, you'd have that tax benefit. But what we didn't forget, what we didn't mention, is you're going to have equity too. That's right, because you're going to have a little bit of, you're going to have a little bit of equity from just paying down the payment.

Speaker 1: 9:29

That's right, the principal A lot of equity. Yes, yeah, so I have a list of people you could call, please.

Speaker 2: 9:34

Yes, exactly, but the two-year thing is really the thing. Remember, it used to be five. It used to be five. It used to be five because we were appreciating it. Two or 3%. You think you're going to stay in a place for two years, or you're here temporarily, or you think you're here temporarily two years, is it? You know? Buy a house.

Speaker 1: 9:54

Yep In a good neighborhood where you're going to have good resale. Yep, right, you know. Lean on the realtor to know the stats and where the trend is in that neighborhood, because it is micro location, absolutely, and if you buy right and then in an area where it's gonna you're, you're not gonna lose.

Speaker 2: 10:14

So free sale if it's desirable, yeah, so I agree, that's good advice.

Speaker 1: 10:16

100. So what do you got? What else you got? So the second half of this year they're saying and here we are. How do you like that print? That's, that's who. Can you read that? I'm barely on it. So here we go home. Prices will keep rising, just a more at a more normal pace. It's, you know, it's all the industries, fba, you know, and all those others you know, fanny, freddy and they.

Speaker 2: 10:35

What I love is they adjust it like every month, every month, yeah, like, oh. Here's our prediction. We know what we're doing, we're so good at this. And then next month, here's our new prediction I mean it's as low as 0.4.

Speaker 1: 10:47

Now I think someone said it was negative, like a couple months ago.

Speaker 2: 10:50

Yeah, it was at one point.

Speaker 1: 10:51

The highest is 4.8, but it averages out at just under three yeah and that's what we want yeah, that's actually, that's actually good yeah so that's price, home appreciation and mortgage rates are saying, are going to come down into the mid to upper sixes. That would be nice, we're seven ish, I think right now I think we're kind of there now.

Speaker 2: 11:06

We're high sixes right now. I think high sixes, low sevens yeah.

Speaker 1: 11:09

Remember they originally thought that was going to come down possibly into the low, low to mid sixes.

Speaker 2: 11:14

Yeah, well, it has a lot to do with, I think, with the economy and inflation and all that stuff. Yeah, I think, once we see the economy, you know, probably be a better interest rate for mortgages by the end of the year.

Speaker 1: 11:30

That's right, yeah, yep. And then the, the home sales total in the in in in the nation is going to still hover around 5 million. It's it's. It says 4.8 average, but I think I think we had five last year or just under so I think it was about the same.

Speaker 2: 11:45

Yeah, and then nothing. Nothing earth shattering no, it's not. And what's interesting too but we were talking about the equity when I was talking about that is that a year over year quarter one, 2024, the nation saw 28,000 gain in equity, as an average, $28,000 year over year. I mean, who wouldn't want?

Speaker 1: 12:03

to. I'd take that right. Try that in the market or anything.

Speaker 2: 12:06

Yeah, exactly, I mean, and for Pennsylvania, here where we are, is 24,000. So we're actually on the upper end of that average, which is really cool.

Speaker 1: 12:14

Oh yeah, because I think probably some of the short points and stuff are probably down right. Yep, yep, absolutely.

Speaker 2: 12:20

What's interesting, washington DC 14,000. So not quite the appreciation, because that's a big ticket item there. California is still at $64,000 of equity gains.

Speaker 1: 12:34

That's incredible $64,000. That skewed it up big time.

Speaker 2: 12:37

Yeah, that's amazing, Really that surprises me.

Speaker 1: 12:39

Yeah, it surprises me too, it really does. Well, you're talking, though If you talk percentage-wise, those are million homes, I mean those are million dollars.

Speaker 2: 12:46

Their average price is probably 800. That's true Percentage-wise. You take 10% of 2 million, it's a lot more money. Yeah, absolutely, it's probably that. Yeah, you're right, you're right so what else you got.

Speaker 1: 12:54

Then you got Idaho, some places in Idaho that are an average of 60,000.

Speaker 2: 12:57

They have really nice potatoes there.

Speaker 1: 13:11

Yeah, a hugo. Yeah, full service realtor. I had a potato man. He knows it all. I'll tell you they're awesome. What else do you have? Oh, we're talking about home price rises. That's just more information. It's just going to be. This one just said it was going to average out this year at 3.78.

Speaker 2: 13:15

Okay, we're thinking, but you know why. The prices are going up on houses, right? Yeah, hedge funds are buying. All that is that fake news. Come on, pete, I'm just, I'm, that's what I heard.

Speaker 1: 13:26

That's what. I heard Pete Tell me is that true, were you reading this next one here.

Speaker 2: 13:30

I think I did.

Speaker 1: 13:31

So the headline, folks for those of you listening was home prices aren't declining, but headlines might make you think they are. That's right, and oh, that's the 6. There you go. That's that average thing there. Where the 6.6 average. So where is that coming from?

Speaker 1: 13:48

It's the media saying the hedge funds right, it's the media, and I have this graphic which you guys are going to see, because I didn't give it to Hugo fast enough that are big investors really buying up all the homes today and what is it with this? So we saw that there was mentioned about that in the debate.

Speaker 2: 14:04

Here's what I think there has to be. I think there has to be this evil reason that prices are going up. It can't just be supply and demand, because some people don't think that that actually exists. I swear. But there's nothing evil going on. We have a low supply of homes and it's not because somebody's just buying them up. And if they were buying them up, they're not going to keep them vacant.

Speaker 1: 14:23

They'd rent them out. They'd rent them out and have a place to live, so then there'd be housing. Yeah.

Speaker 2: 14:27

We need rentals and purchases.

Speaker 1: 14:29

We need both Unreal. The graphic here that you guys can't see is that mega investors are not buying all the homes. That's the bottom line. There we go. This graph it's a graph of lines and it goes. So 99% are mom and pops, those types of people who want to buy. You know, get into the real estate, investing. 1% is nothing, it's nothing.

Speaker 2: 14:50

You know what it makes me want to do? It makes me want to do a shot of Magic, mind it does, absolutely.

Speaker 1: 14:55

Yeah, I think it's a great idea.

Speaker 2: 14:56

And I took mine this morning already, but you're welcome to take it.

Speaker 1: 14:59

Is that what?

Speaker 2: 14:59

happened to you? Yeah, exactly, I got to get a right a little pumped up. But I I do take magic, mind pretty, I take it every morning, yeah, and I notice when I don't have it. You do. You know. It's funny now is jess takes it, my wife, yeah, my mom and dad both take it. Do you know? Joe rogan takes it another another podcast guy there um, there's a bunch of people that are. This is becoming a very popular nootropic, wow.

Speaker 1: 15:21

And and I tried it. Yeah, you tried me that one. It was really what I'm gonna do today.

Speaker 2: 15:24

I'm going to do today. I'm going to give you three. What? Because it tells you you need three days worth. Okay, I'm going to give you three of those to try.

Speaker 1: 15:31

Okay, take them three days in a row With coffee, right With coffee, or if you don't drink coffee, you don't have to.

Speaker 2: 15:43

So what's cool? You wouldn't believe all the stuff that's in here. There's some of the stuff I can't pronounce, just so you know. So I'm going to butcher this for sure. So there's lion's mane mushrooms. That's an easy one to say Lion's mane, yeah, yeah. Turmeric, that's a really good one. Vitamin C we all need vitamin C. This is the one I always. I don't know this one. It's organic Antiseps mushrooms, vitamin D3, organic ashwagandha.

Speaker 1: 16:07

See, I said that pretty well, well, you said that pretty well.

Speaker 2: 16:09

That's pretty good, right, that's a tough one Rodeo rosea and organic matcha. And then there's this theanine. L-theanine is another thing that's in here. There's just a lot of stuff in here and you know All natural, right, all natural, and have studied this and have looked up all the ingredients. There's nothing that is in there. I mean, I take blood pressure medicine every morning and I wanted to make sure there was nothing that was going to interfere with that. But it's great, take it with your coffee, you'll love it. If you do magicmindcom backslash, brad Wiseman, if you want to order some, you can get a pretty nice discount on it. It's like 30% off.

Speaker 2: 16:44

Oh really, yeah, it's pretty cool, so I just wanted to bring it up again that's awesome.

Speaker 1: 16:47

Just so you know. You know all about it. Thank you very much, brad. I'll try that again. Yeah, you should try it again three days in a row. Give it a shot. Give one to your wife.

Speaker 2: 16:52

Maybe she'll try it.

Speaker 1: 16:53

She'll like it.

Speaker 2: 16:53

She'll love it definitely chill it and definitely um drink coffee yeah, it's, it's good stuff.

Speaker 1: 16:58

Well, I had it last time. It was delicious yeah, it is.

Speaker 2: 16:59

It's actually really good. Good, it was it looks it's horrible color green.

Speaker 1: 17:02

It's a horrendous color.

Speaker 2: 17:07

When you look at it you're like this isn't going to taste good. It looks like smashed peas to me, If you like smashed peas that's good, but it was delicious folks, it really was.

Speaker 1: 17:15

It actually is very good.

Speaker 2: 17:16

All natural, all right. So here's the thing I want to bring up again Go ahead. I love this saying, and it's something that I think we just got to keep pushing Most agents know what's happening. Okay, good agents understand what's happening and great agents can explain what's happening. And I'm telling you, make sure, if you're working with an agent today, make sure they're studying their craft, make sure they know the numbers. There's no reason that you, as a consumer, should know more than right, then your realtor, right, okay, right and that's something we do all the time.

Speaker 1: 17:50

That's our job, man, absolutely our job is to inform people what's going on in the real estate market and decipher it, and decipher it and get it break it down.

Speaker 1: 17:58

You can explain it in a positive and no, not just a positive but a true reality, reality way. Absolutely like with these national stats that come out just drive me crazy because people think the sky's falling and yeah, like we talk about all the time. It's micro local man, just stay on, stay with the realtor that knows his micro local market absolutely I agree with you 100, 100 and I think, um, I think we're gonna.

Speaker 2: 18:18

Is there anything else you want to talk about?

Speaker 1: 18:20

no, I think that's good. I think we talked about good stuff. Yeah, and I'm looking forward to you know next month and we're halfway through the year.

Speaker 2: 18:27

Yeah, hugo, halfway through, that's right oh, I know what I wanted to bring up september 19th we're gonna start pushing this like crazy september 19th, pete will be here.

Speaker 2: 18:37

Hopefully you hopefully you accepted this, but we are all gonna be here. We're all gonna be on camera at some point or another. It's gonna be at seven o'clock on sept 19th. We're going to do an actual very, very live show. I mean live, live, and it's going to be a lot of fun. So we're bringing a lot of our guests. Oh, we're definitely going to have drinks. Are you kidding me? We're going to have some wine to celebrate and some drinks. It's going to be a different show. It's going to a bunch of people.

Speaker 1: 19:04

I have.

Speaker 2: 19:05

Stephanie Taramin has already confirmed. I'm working on trying to get Chad Henney back in here. Oh, that'd be great. We got Pete coming in here. We got a bunch of guests that have been here for a while. Justin Perella's coming. He was my first guest ever.

Speaker 2: 19:18

First guest ever. Yeah, he was number one. 200th episode will be September 19th and it will be live, so it'll be a fun time, awesome. Thank you All right. There you have it. Pete was back in the office, back in the office and studio. I just can never get that right, but thanks for coming here Thursdays at 7 pm. Facebook, instagram, youtube, wherever you want to find us or wherever you listen to podcasts, we are there. All right, we'll see you real.