89: 2023 Oscar Picks

Alex and Nick break down every category for the upcoming Oscars. Narratives include: Can anything beat “Everything Everywhere All At Once”?, Cate Blanchett vs. Michelle Yeoh (vs. Instagram), Austin Butler vs. Brendan Fraser, Angela Bassett vs. Jamie Lee Curtis, a potential “Elvis” wave, and so much more.
Who will win, who should win, let’s go!
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Transcript

0:07

Here we are. Ask Vasquez. Hey, everyone. Welcome to. What are you watching? I'm Alex with Throw it. I'm joined by my best man, Nick, though. So how are you doing? They're flying, sailor. I don't know what that's in reference to, if it'll make sense at all. I know you don't. It's hard taking names as well. We just keep talking about the same damn movies. What about Nick? Nick? What about. Where's little in that Nick? You know, I feel like the suspect has gone out the goddamn window. I would consider Nicholas Maybe. Maybe Nick the prick. Oh, but not. Oh, that's all right. Someone did write something, right? Did write Dick on my car. The key that they would be the key with the key. Where? The key? How bad? Right of on my front bumper. It's unmissable where you have to, you know. Oh, they've street parking. It's just you park wherever there's available. Street parking. I think I just got a random Hollywood dick. The edge is Hollywood dick. So on my car, straight up dick. Written, keyed right on the front. Oh, that's unfortunate. I can't wait to see that. I'm looking forward to that more than anything now when I visit in a few days. Okay. 2023 Oscars. Yeah, they're almost here. We are recording this episode on Saturday, March 4th. The show is going to take place on Sunday, March 12th. I will be in Los Angeles with you, will be watching them live. We will, of course, do our reaction episode directly after. But this episode today, we're here to talk about I don't know where all the narratives are, the Hollywood narratives of each race, what we definitely what we want to win. If we were voters, what would we vote for? With note with none of these narratives in mind, just our overall picks. And then we'll throw out some what will win? I'm using that cautiously because I don't really know. I do follow this stuff closely. I don't try to follow every little detail about it. Yes, I do watch some aspects of the show to be fun. No, I don't. There's so some people go so, so hard for this stuff. But here's what I'll say about my picks. Here's what I'll say. I do love the Oscars for better or worse. I do not love every movie that is, I'm fairly certain, going to win major awards this year. That doesn't matter when you hear my will picks. I don't put my heart in it at all. Just in my head. There's no heart in this shit. That's where people mess up. People fly too close to the sun and they get their heart in it and they think crazy shit's going to win. My dad shared his picks with me. I love my dad. It's got his heart in it a little too much with some of the categories. One in particular. I hope he's right and that's in his will column. And I'm like, All right, all right. I but I think you're voting with your heart. But there's no real padding. I'm just saying we're going to fun today, that's all forecaster time. I'm excited for the show. What can I say? I don't know. I always get excited for you. We're going to we're going to see how big this is. I don't know. We're going to see. We're going to see. I've always watched the Oscars, but there was a period of time where I wouldn't say I was excited for them. And then, well, ever since I met you particularly when we started doing the podcasts, like, yeah, the first half of like the first quarter of this year is pretty much just devoted to Oscar season. Yeah. Yes, it is. And it's fun. It's very fun. Again, it's not what I mean or the best movies of the year. That's why we always do our personal picks of our favorite films of the year first and then, you know, this has never really been about what is the best art, the best movie art out there. It's a little bit popularity, it's a little bit whatever is political at the time, it's always in that way. It seems more so now, but it is always been that way. And of course, a great deal amount of this is up to how much money is spent. A.K.A campaigning, which they campaign for nominations, they campaign for these wins. So a lot of that goes into it. I factor all that in what I don't factor into my picks is my heart. It's all I'll say it's my list. No, but let's okay so we know we're excited so we're going to get started with a few icebreakers here because I do think these are genuinely kind of funny. My big one for this ceremony, which is hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, affable guy. He was there at Envelope Gate. You know, he knows how to hold a crowd. He kept kind of can't be canceled. So he's good. Will Tom Cruise show up to this? Oscar ceremony? Is a huge, huge story right now. He is a nominee. He's a producer for Top Gun Maverick, just nominated for best Picture. Will he show up? Will he be there? Is he notorious for not showing up to the Oscars now? He doesn't go to anything anymore. So this is the thing. Yeah, put this in context. The dude since, you know 2005 couch Oprah since that he's very he doesn't go out like to that level of scrutiny a lot he doesn't like to sit at these award shows because are there going to be jokes? Are there going to be I don't know anything but but he has been out there promoting the shit out of this movie. He went on Jimmy Kimmel Show. They gave him like a lifetime achievement award at the PGA's and he talked for 10 minutes and gave a really good speech. Spielberg at that event publicly thanked him for, quote, saving movies with Top Gun Maverick by holding out for cinema. So he's got a lot of clout behind him. And this icebreaker. I mean, I don't want to jump ahead, but this this icebreaker does directly have to do with a narrative I have for best picture. But yeah, you know, we don't see him out a lot. He goes to like premieres and stuff, but he doesn't do a lot of interviews anymore. He's an easy target for a lot of jokes. Right. But are they going to put him in the the front and center role? We know who was sitting front and center last year, who they wanted to, you know, kind of hold court over the entire ceremony. And we know how that went. He just stormed the fucking stage. We all know how that went. So so I don't know who who's going to be there is going to be Tom Cruise front and center. They always have a movie star. Used to always be Jack. Yeah. And his sunglasses, he was always holding court right there. I don't know. It's just something I'll keep an eye on. It'll be a lot of fun if he's sitting there. It'll be a lot of fun If he just shows up for the last award. Suddenly he's like, they're. I don't know, Tom Cruise have time to go sit there for 4 hours. Like, doesn't he have some, like, I don't know, plane jump out of or something for a movie? Well, I mean, I mean the man does everything and he does well. I think it depends on how hard he wants to rep Top gun if he feels that that's what I mean it's yeah and it's a that movie has not left theaters at least enough. That's what I mean. Yeah. Yeah. It's always been around. It's always had at least one showing somewhere. I love it. I love and for like almost a full year, it came out in May. Icebreaker number two, how big of a thing is this going to be? Are they referencing it? Is it in the opening monologue? Is this like how much is it going to be reference, if at all, by like the Oscar writers, which means people who present awards because all that stuff is written, you know, that awful banter back and forth that presenters do. Will it be reference in that? Is Kimmel going to reference it? Is there going to be a whole lame Oscar bid about the whole thing about added secure I don't know is how much of a thing are they going to make it? I think the tricky balance is like I think it should only be brought up like twice. Max Yeah, and they should be good jokes because if you make it a bit throughout the whole entire thing, like multiple references are being made now. It's actually in a weird way that will actually change the way it's viewed. It'll actually become more of like a entertaining thing as opposed to should. That was really fucked up. I think you do too early. I think you mentioned it earlier. Yeah, it's a thing. It's a joke. Then you get it out of the way, then you move on. I think it would be classy as hell to invite Questlove back on stage and essentially give his acceptance speech over or whatever new speech he wants to win. That was the award Chris Rock was presenting. And Questlove, also a resident of Philadelphia, was the one who got up on stage right after that. And I mean, no one remembers that speech. I just thought to be kind of classy. They invited him out. Maybe they'd be drawing too much attention to it, but at least inviting him out to present Best documentary would be a very classy move. That's what I think. At the very least, they need to do that. Yeah, I think that would be a good move to do. But I also don't think that many people outside of like the the of well you in the circles know the nerds care the people the nerds care. I know a lot of people may be listening don't track this stuff but the nerds care a lot of people in the audience care. They do. There are dozens of us. Dozens. Okay. Last icebreaker. I mentioned this last year, too. There are four count them, four movies nominated for Oscars this year that are deemed rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Would anyone like to take a guess? I'm laughing because when everybody hears this list, it's a doozy. Number one blond to Bardo, three Babylon four, Empire Flight. All movies we've referenced and discussed very positively on this podcast. So it's nice to see that we're just right there in line with Rotten Tomatoes, which I don't care about at all. All right. Well, can we I don't know if we publicly brought this up, but can we announce our our theory that you and I have? What are you watching about Rotten Tomatoes? Yes. Yes. It only really goes one way, which is to say that we've been talking just us in text message, that we've noticed a trend that a lot of movies that are deemed rotten have now become greenlights for us to be like, Oh, this is probably going to be good. Yeah, this is probably something we're going to be like. That doesn't mean that every movie that is quote unquote certified fresh we're going to dislike. That's what. Yes. A one way. Yes. But and that certainly doesn't mean that every rotten movie is something we're going to like. But like Magic, Mike's last dance was rotten. And I went, okay, I really don't think I'm going to dislike this as much. And I didn't. I really like that movie so much. Now more than ever, that site means nothing to me. I only bring it up because I think it's fun. I like to take the piss out of it because I loved Bardo. That was my favorite movie of the year. Love Babylon and Sorry, Love Island. Yeah, this is what I mean. It's like if there's a movie that's coming out that we know that we're interested in, we're intrigued by. We know that we're going to see it. We don't know how it's going to be received. But based on the director, based on what we know about the movie, there's always movies that they're going to come up that are going to be like, I wonder if this is going to be good. Chances are, if it gets a rotten score, it's like, Oh man, this is going to be great. Yeah, yeah, exactly. That's what we were. I mean, Babylon kind of started this force. We're like, you know, noticing something here. All right, let's get into it. All right? We're just going to go category by category. I'm going to shout out the nominees and we're going to talk about, you know, if if there is a narrative for the category, we'll kind of go through that, talk about who we want to win, who we think will win. We're going to start, of course, with the most important category of the night best sound. Yeah, you're the nominees. The what are you watching? Favor of the Western Front. That's right. What are you watching? Podcast Award of the Night Best Sound. Your nominees all quiet on the Western Front. Avatar, The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun, Maverick. We've been split a little bit. I mean, I don't even know. This is just kind of a bit at this point. It's just a joke. Like, I don't actually know if Avatar is going to win it. You think top gun's going to win it? I also have a note here. Could Elvis just knuckleball loud it with it? You here's me. I kind of do like it. It could. It really could. It really good. Yeah. Yeah. Because you're talking about your encompassing sound into so much now that it's kind of lost the specificity of what it is. Because you've got original score and you've got original song. Elvis is not on any of them. Mm hmm. Mm hmm. So good point. You're talking about a movie that's based on Elvis, which is music. So I could see a weird thing where they just give this sound. It wouldn't be that weird. People are like, Oh, yeah, I like Elvis music. Sound check. And yeah, you think that's at least some a large portion of the 10,000 people who vote for these awards don't vote like that. I mean, just trust me, they do trust me. Some of them, not all of them. Some of them do that. So that's why I'm. Where you too? Yeah, I honestly almost all of the Batman probably can't win. But no, all quiet is probably going to win some other awards. And it did very well, particularly at the BAFTAs. Avatar is it's Big Jim. So I mean, if Avatar wins everything it's nominated for, that's not going to surprise anyone. It's like, okay, hey, Avatar, one sound and visual effects. Like, Yeah, that's not going to surprise anyone. Yeah, we do have Elvis kind of lurking. And then Top Gun Maverick, similarly to Avatar, could also ride that wave of just kind of clearing the technical categories and taking them all because again, no one's going to be like, Oh, Top Gun, Maverick, one sound okay. And visual effects. Oh, yeah, duh. Like, it's just not going to be surprised. But I honestly don't know who's going to win this. I would love yeah, I would love if anything. But Elvis wins. Something tells me might, I don't know. All quiet on the Western front. It could be a real sneaky win here. It could. It could also sneak in and get a lot of those technical awards. Yep. I have a I have a my. My theory is all quiet. Might do Well. All right, let's just talk about now. That's fine. What all quiet has going for it is that it is very well-liked. It's on Netflix. People are finally seeing it. I think. I don't know what episode Around the end of the year. I was mad. I was like yelling at people. I think it was my reviews. Yeah, There was a a review to watch movies and I'm like, No one's talking about this movie. No one's watching it. That's changed. Netflix helped, the BAFTAs did very well there. One picture won. Director It did well, won some technical awards, so it could easily lean that way as well that people just go, okay, all quiet. We're not I'm not going to vote for it for picture director, screenplay. It's not nominated for any acting. Yeah, but I really like that movie. So let me check the box for a lot of these technical awards sound, you know, visual effects, maybe production, design, cinematography. It's it is a contender. It's a contender in just about everything it's nominated for, which is which is interesting. I don't know if I would vote for these things in terms of what my head thinks, but if all of a sudden all quiet started just picking up these wins, I wouldn't be surprised at all. Well, that's why while I am kind of goofing off about my will pics, what will win there is definitely something to be said for that. That kind of train that starts on Oscar night. My dad and I used to follow that really closely to be like, Oh boy, it's when a lot. A really good example of that is 1999, when it was Star Wars episode one, The Phantom Menace was up for all the technical awards, but so is this funky little movie called The Matrix in The Matrix early on to start it and checking them off. And it was like, All right, this is awesome. So you can kind of track that stuff. And we will I will say I do like that. Everything everywhere. While it did get a lot of technical nominations, it's not in all of them. So we're definitely see some love of different movies getting some wins. What a good best sound conversation. All right. We'll go straight to the top here. Best picture here, the nominees all quiet on the Western Front. Avatar, the way water, banshees, Elvis, everything everywhere. The Fable, Men's tar, the Top Gun, Maverick, Triangle's sadness in Women Talking, which is not women are talking, which is how Mark Wahlberg pronounced it at the SAGs. Jesus, Mark like two words women. He didn't prepare much for that one. He just he did not. He had trouble when he opened the envelope. He had trouble pronouncing everything everywhere all at once like he had to look it. I think he even got it wrong. He wasn't ready. It looks at the screen. He goes, Oh, I have to read them, too. All right. Yeah. You've already gone through the nominees on the nominations episode. Straight to the top narrative. Can anything beat everything everywhere? My answer, quite simply, is no. I don't think so. I think this is about a damn near lock of the night. It won the Producers Guild, the PGA. It's been checking off all the boxes, just won best cast at the SAGs. That single award, best cast doesn't typically mean a lot like the cast of Black Panther, one that wasn't going to go on to win Best picture. But in addition, it also won three fucking acting awards at the SAGs, which is damn near unprecedented. And this thing is riding a wave that is not going to fall off by Oscar night. I think this is an easy win, honestly, I agree. I would be shocked if anything won it. I think its only real competition and this goes to my first ice breaker and why I brought him up is Top Gun Maverick and I think it's very, very outside competition. But there's a reason Cruz is going all around town doing all this stuff, accepting awards when he doesn't going on Kimmel, he doesn't go on talk shows anymore. So like you take Avatar, for example, they are not promoting that to win best picture at all. They're just not they're not spending the money. They're focused on Avatar three, probably. Yeah, they're not really. So I hear they're not really trying to campaign maybe for some of the technical awards, but not that big one. Top Gun Maverick, to your point, has never left theaters in L.A., which is where a majority of voters live. It's always been in conversation and they have kept spending money just as everything everywhere has that. Believe you me, A24 has spent a shitload of money ensuring that everything everywhere has stayed in people's minds since March for a year. Yes. Even if you didn't like the film, I wasn't the biggest fan of it. It's still been around and they've paid a lot of money to ensure that. So has Cruz with Maverick. So I don't know. It's just kind of interesting if it sweeps in there and does it, because I think our next major award is also going to everything everywhere. So will they vote for everything? Everywhere Director and give maverick picture? These are huge, huge ifs then. I don't think you're going to happen. I'm just spitballing is it's part that's all I wouldn't be upset at all of Top gun maverick won best picture. I think that would be in a way like awesome. Maybe because it's just a special thing. Someone opens the envelope, they announce it, and Cruz just like storms in on a motorcycle down the aisle and he, like, goes up on stage. Hey, guys. Hey, everyone. I'm Tom Cruise. Thanks. Except I'm Tom Cruise. I love it last year. Okay. Interestingly, on this podcast episode last year, I actually ended that episode saying, If you twist my arm, I do think Power of the Dog is going to win. Picture, but buy up. By the time Oscar day came along, when we uploaded our final ballots to Twitter, I changed that. Dakota So some things can change. Like in the week between, you know, us talking here. But as far as this goes, I just don't think that's going to happen. I think there's no verses this year. It's not power. The dog verse coda, which was a legit verse. It's not that. It's just everything everywhere. That's it. Best Director Martin McDonagh Banshees The Daniels, which is Daniel Kwan and Daniel Shine Art. I'm going to refer to them as The Daniel's for Everything Everywhere. Steven Spielberg Disablement. Todd Field for Tar. Rubin Ostlund Triangle of Sadness. Yeah, that's who I would definitely want to win. I guess. I didn't technically do. I guess I technically did not do what for picture. If I voted, I would vote for Triangle of Sadness, which has no chance at winning. But that's my favorite movie on that list for best Picture. We know what your favorite is. If you want to remind everyone again, everything everywhere, all at once. Thanks very much. Thank you very much. Sorry. Yes. Best director. I love triangle sadness that's probably in last place here to win. But okay. Well, initially when these things came out, I. I did not think that Daniel's had a shot at it. I thought this was going to kind of go to Spielberg. Same, same. And now I kind of think that the Daniel's have the the biggest shot at winning this myself. Even on this podcast. I've been talking about the staying power of everything everywhere for the better part of a year and saying how it's going to be nominated for a bunch of Oscars. I also have qualified that was saying it will not win Director. Now I'm eating my words because that has changed. I did not expect this. And what changed it was the Directors Guild Awards which everything which the Daniel plan for everything everywhere. I really thought Spielberg's still had a fight and that's not to say he doesn't. I do think he's in second place. But yeah, the table means is not a movie that stuck around long. I mean, if you want to go back and include the Golden Globe Awards in your Oscar picks, I usually don't because 88 people vote on those and they're really like a popularity contest. I mean, Spielberg did win director those but that I don't think that's going to factor into a lot of Oscar voters you know decision making. So I looks like everything everywhere might take this to now again yes best director can be funky sometimes they can mix it up and give it to a more arty movie sometimes. So I think second place here would be Spielberg. But we're I don't know. I'm surprised that Burger isn't nominated for all quiet in this. I am too. If they were for a Ford nominee, I thought they would have gone with Andrew Berger for all quiet on the Western Front over Reuben. Awesome. I mean, they were both nominated for picture, which is great, but that did surprise me. Yeah. And if that was the case, I would actually maybe make a bigger argument that he would win. Yeah, good point. But. But if I had to go with my take, I'm going to go with the Daniels on this one. Same. Now what I usually groan about a lot when it comes to the Oscar telecast is that for the most part, I usually have a pretty good idea of who's going to win each acting award. It's because of all the precursor awards. Talk about this all the time, every award leading up to it. A lot of the winners are usually the same. So you can just track it. You can go, okay, I see this year only one acting award is totally sealed up. That one's just going to win in a knock off. But we'll start with the best actress here. Yeah, Cate Blanchett for Topper, Ana de Armas for Blond Girl. I love you. Just enjoy your night, Ana. Andrea Riseborough, over to Leslie. But you know that nomination that stunned Hollywood. Michelle Williams, the Fable mentors Michelle Williams yet again, no chance of winning. Like, what the hell is it going to take? And then Michelle Yeoh Everything everywhere. So what is cool about this category is this is not sealed up. This is Cate Blanchett versus Michelle Yeoh and it is a duck out and there's a lot to unpack about this that in terms of narratives, it's really exciting. But just your initial thoughts about best actress here, it's it's between those two. But what I was going to ask is along this road to the Oscars, what has Cate Blanchett won over Michelle Yeoh? How many has it been neck and neck or has Michelle Yeoh taken everything along the way? It's just the conversation has always been these two. Yeah. So, okay, let's just jump right into this narrative because Ana, Andrea and Michelle Williams, I love you, but I think the only way one of them wins is if Blanchett and Yeoh cancel each other out, which I don't think that's quite no, I don't think that's going to happen. I mean, that does happen. That's that's what I call it. BRODY Because that's how Adrien Brody won, in part when he won best Actor. Okay, so who Okay, so who would you go to then if Blanchett and you know, I'm not fucking around. If you're holding my feet to the fire, I swear to God, I think it'd be Andrea Riseborough I swear, I've never seen a campaign like that take off, and I think she's actually going to get a fair number of votes, way less than it's going to take to win. But all those people who are repping her so hard online and she got she has a lot of famous friends, they're all going to vote for her. They're going to get a lot of their friends to vote for her. So I do think she'll have the third place amount of votes. Andre Riseborough I really do. Have you seen and that it's fucking hysterical. I have seen that movie. She's good at it. It's a very I talked about it. She's given the it's a lot of acting. It's a big alcoholic and trouble performance. Marc Maron's in it. He's really good. It's a good like we talk about these kind of movies. Vera Farmiga was in Down to the Bone, which no one saw, and it was like, Damn, where do you come from? You know, they used to actually nominate performances like this, ah, Melissa Leo for Frozen River. Like they used to dig into these indie wells, but I'm not complaining. They nominated on the AMAs, which I never thought was going to happen. So what was I actually, Oh, if I voted, I would vote if I voted no. Bullshit. If I had a ballot, I would vote for Andre Riseborough. That's how confident I am in that split decision. I would vote for her, hoping that maybe I'm one other vote to just in case there's a split. She has enough. Ana's my Ana de Armas is my favorite performance on there. I love. That's what I want. I want to talk about that. But here is where my this is where I leave my heart out of it. Even in my what? Like if I had a ballot, even though de Armas is one of my favorite nominations of the entire night, I would actually vote for Andrea Riseborough for this reason. For this exact reason, because I think it would be fucking hilarious if some tiny movie that no one had heard of until Oscar nomination voting started. And then they did this. They dumped all their money into like a three day campaign. It got investigated by the Academy because people thought it was illegal. It wasn't. It was just very inventive. We're going to see this a lot more now. And I'm all for it because, like these indie movies need whatever help they can get. And I just think it would be hilarious if they knocked. If she knocked the big players out, I think it'd be great. So that's what I would do. You're crazy, man. I like you. But you're saying that it's not going to happen. It's not. I mean, I just wait that a long kind of what if road. But that's not going to happen. Well, let's get back to Blanchett verse yo. And your initial question of who's winning the most I can go back to the Golden Globes is why? This is why I hate them. Yeah, because Blanchett won drama. Lead actress Michelle Yeoh won comedy lead actress. So, okay, there's nothing really to discern. There we go to BAFTAs. Cate Blanchett won for Tar. That makes sense because, you know, they're British awards. She's Australian SAGs, of course, Michelle Yeoh won for everything everywhere. Now, here's where narratives come in. Cate Blanchett, I am certain, does not give a shit about winning this award. I genuinely, in my core, believe that. I think she would love if Todd Field won original screenplay, but I do not think Cate Blanchett is sitting in her house right now going, I have to add on for winning supporting actress for The Aviator and then best actress for Blue Jasmine. I need to add on that with the third Oscar. She's not. She's actually out in the press and accepting when she does win awards, she's accepting them with so much humility. It's exactly what Frances McDormand was doing in 2020 for Nomadland She did that. I really don't think she wanted that award. I think she wanted Viola Davis or Aldridge or Andra Day to win that award or someone younger like Carey Mulligan. But eventually Frances McDormand does win that award. So who knows the way it goes. The reason why I bring this up for Blanchett is because she won the Critics Choice Award and spent the entire time essentially saying how these awards are a bit silly and we should be looking at other performances like Andrea Riseborough, which that that literally helped her get nominated because that was during nomination time. So Cate Blanchett is like shouting other people out during her speech. Yeah. And then she did the same thing at the BAFTAs. Cate Blanchett is extremely graceful. She's extremely elegant. She's not out there like these awards suck. She is phrasing it in a way that is, again, very graceful and very endearing to whoever is giving her this award. Whatever body of BAFTAs, whatever, it's going to be Golden Globes. But she doesn't seem particularly keen in winning another one. I think she really wants Michelle Yeoh to win. I do. I think she thinks it would be important for Michelle Yeoh to win. Michelle Yeoh, on the other hand, she wants this very, very badly. Very badly. If there is a talk show, she's done it. If there's a luncheon, she has gone to it. She's out there, she's promoting herself. She really wants it. So this is going to come down to despite, I don't think, Cate Blanchett really wanting it that much. Will she get the votes anyway? That's what that's what's cool about this. That's what we're going to see. I felt. Michelle Yeoh from the beginning. I've always felt that she's going to win this, so I do think she'll walk away with it. Who would you vote for if you had a ballot once? So I have not seen Sue Leslie, so I am unfortunately, I it's an unfair assessment to make on her. But yeah, I give it Ana de armas. Goddamn right, Damn right. Well, hey, it's controversial. We know. I don't care. It's very cool that she got nominated. I still do think that what she did was incredible. Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no. Not incredible. Credible. I thought what she did was extremely credible. Yes. Look up the word people who tell you that that was you should incredible. Incredible. Have it so poorly portrayed. Incorrectly. Incorrectly, Yes. Allusions, not illusions. Not illusions. Illusions. Sorry. Do you know what I just quoted? Yeah. Are you fucking kidding me? You don't know what would say again. Illusions. Illusions, not illusions. Illusions? Yes. Illusions. Yeah, I do. I do. I do. I'm bad at this embedded when you throw it out because it lives somewhere, You do it to me. Yeah, but you're good at it. You're good at it. Van Wilder. You do like weird shit fucking right? That's good, girl. What the hell's that show called? New Girl. New Girl Card. You quote that? Also, I don't quote Jennifer Aniston. I just quoted One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. I'll have you know, that's your second favorite motion picture. Third time, third, third. Oh, yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah, that's right. Suck. Oh, like I'm supposed to remember your fucking pics. Hi. It's Alex in updated time. Okay. Nick and I recorded this episode on Saturday, March 4th, and, well, things have changed for some of these races. It is now the afternoon of Wednesday, March eight, 2023, and I'm going to chime in with five quick updates. The first one being the most significant. There's a lot to unpack here. I'm not going to get into all of it. Bear with me. Some of you are going to know what I'm talking about. If you've been online, others of you may not. Here we go. Yesterday, a Tuesday, March 7th, was the last day for Oscar voting. They have five days to vote and it all ended yesterday. However, yesterday afternoon, Michelle Yeoh reposted a snippet from a Vogue article. Here's what the headline of that article is. It's been over two decades since we've had a nonwhite Best Actress winner. Will that change in 2023? That was the original headline of the article. Here is the tech snippet that Michelle Yeoh reposted. And again, this was written by a writer for Vogue, not by Michelle Yeoh herself. Here's what The Post said. Detractors would say that Blanchett's is the stronger performance. The acting veteran is indisputably incredible as the prolific conductor Lydia Tarr. But it should be noted that she already has two Oscars for supporting actress for The Aviator her in 2005 and best actress for Blue Jasmine in 2014. A third would perhaps confirm her status as an industry titan, but considering her expansive and unparalleled body of work, are we still in need of yet more confirmation? Meanwhile, for Yeoh, an Oscar would be life changing. Her name would forever be preceded by the phrase Academy Award winner, and it should result in her getting meatier parts. After a decade of being criminally underused in Hollywood, that's what the Post said. Michelle Yeoh reposted this to Instagram with her own personal caption that read, This is not just for me. This is for every little girl that looks like me. We want to be seen. We want to be heard. This post went live on Instagram just hours before voting closed for the Oscars. Here's why this is an issue. Here's why Hollywood is losing its mind right now. And here's why I'm so shocked. This is not allowed. Per the Academy's rules, a nominee is not allowed to do this. A nominee has never been allowed to say anything negative about another nominated film or another nominated performance. You are not allowed to say anything that could potentially take votes away from another person or from another movie. When social media became a thing, they added a rule to modify this. Here's what the rules states. Social media from people associated with an eligible film casting a negative or derogatory light on a competing film or achievement will not be tolerated. So the reaction to this post, which Michelle Yeoh did take down, the reaction has been swift and seemingly merciless. If you Google Michelle Yeoh's name right now, it's just all articles about this post. I actually heard about this first from the Everything Everywhere Reddit page, and I went on Reddit and Twitter and I'm seeing actual super fans of this movie who are admitting that this was a bad move on Michelle Yeoh's part. And that's the thing right up, people in the public may care. The press. The press loves a scandal like this. So, of course, they're going to write any number of articles they live for this shit. But do voters care? Michelle Yeoh posted this with only a few hours left to vote for the Oscars. Did enough academy members see it to sway them one way or the other? It's kind of hard to say. Are thousands of Academy members waiting to the last hours of voting to submit their votes? Possibly. Now. Could enough of those people been onto Instagram to see Michelle Yeoh's post and have it change their mind? I don't know. That's all hard to say. That's all speculative. More importantly, because Michelle Yeoh doing this repost appears to be a clear rule violation. Here is the major headline of the hour, which again is about 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, March eight. The headline is Could this repost make Michelle Yeoh ineligible for the best actress Oscar year? That is not outside the realm of possibility. It is not. We could very well wake up to news on Friday or Saturday that says Michelle Yeoh is no longer eligible and all votes for her will be discarded. That can happen. We all know the Academy is walking on eggshells post Slap. They don't want to tolerate any nonsense of any kind. Andrea Riseborough, another best Actress nominee. Her nomination went under investigation by the Academy. They found no foul play, but it was investigated. I have to assume they're investigating this Michelle Yeoh repost now. Wow. Wow. Nick and I spoke on the phone earlier this morning and talked for like a half hour about this. And we will save our personal opinions for the Oscar post, show that we record. But needless to say, we're both completely and utterly baffled by this move on Jo's part. I personally have been following the Oscars very closely, like very, very closely to a very high nerd degree. Let's be honest, since 1997 and I have never seen anything like this. Never. Not in a category this big, not by a presumed frontrunner. Michelle Yeoh on Monday was the frontrunner to win this award. And if she loses or is disqualified, it could very well be because of this post. Wow. Back to the show. All right, here we go. Best actor in a leading role. Again, this is not buttoned up. Austin Butler, Elvis, Colin Farrell, Banshees. Brendan Fraser, The Whale. Paul Mescal after Son Bill Nighy Living. I wish someone would've told me Living was a remake of Kurosawa's Ikiru because I would have seen it earlier. But once I found out that bit of news, I went immediately after and quite enjoyed it. That said, Mescal and Nighy do not have a chance to win this. I firmly believe this is Butler versus Fraser. What I was referencing for my dad earlier, who I love and whose Oscar picks I highly respect, he wants Ferrell to win and he actually thinks Feral will win. He does. He's holding firm to it. Similar to Blanchett verse Yo, this is Butler versus Fraser. To me, they've been splitting the awards back and forth. So we're going to we have well, let's open it up. We'll get into it. I want more than anything in the world, Brendan Fraser to win this award for this category. Me too. Not just because I'm a fan of Brendan Fraser, because I am. I grew up with him, but this performance was one of the best acting performances I've seen in years. Yeah, like when I think about what acting is and what acting can do. Brendan Fraser personifies that with his performance in the Whale. What are you trying to say there? What are you. Oh, but. Oh, everyone will back off like a hooker. Okay. Moving now, baby. We have. We have thrown a little bit towards awesome butler, but I don't throw any shade to his performance in Elvis because in, like, the assignment was given. Mm hmm. You need to portray Elvis. Elvis fuckin Presley. And you need to do it believably. Full stop. There you go. And he fucking did it like. I mean, he did. He absolutely did to me. That the best parts of that movie are all him. Are all when he is, particularly when he's performing. But just me personally. I left the theater speechless. After Brendan Fraser. I couldn't talk, I couldn't sing, I couldn't move. I was just floored and that to me resonates more. Well, we're going to see if Oscar voters share in that sentiment because Elvis is a more beloved film than the whale. I think just in Mass. I don't know more how much more beloved, but yes, certainly more talked about. Certainly better seen. But people who don't even like the whale that much all think he gave an amazing performance, which he did. People who don't like Elvis that much like you and I, we all agree that Butler put in the work I he's not my vote to win any any award for it certainly not an Oscar but I'm not sitting here griping about that performance of anything. I've spent some time griping about how he's conducted himself in the press and the revolving narrative of the voice, which I'm not even going to not even worth going back into. But okay, let's look at the narrative, though. We have Brendan Fraser, who did win the SAG. Now got to remember screen Actors Guild Awards are only voted on by actors and I think Brendan Fraser has been around for longer. I think he's more beloved just as an actor, as an entertainer. It's a huge comeback. You know, it's wrapped up like that, a huge comeback performance, I think. Mickey Rourke for Aronofsky's film The Wrestler. Yeah, they kind of have it packaged up like that. I was so happy he won that I still thought Butler was going to win the SAG. You called Fraser out and he won. And I'm so happy. I don't know if he can repeat that for the Oscars. I don't know, because the whale is nominated for almost nothing else. It has a supporting actress nom, which is great, has a make up now, so it's definitely on there. It's just not represented like Elvis is. So that's kind of a ding against Fraser vis a vis the whale just because the whales and as widely seen now Elvis Presley as you mentioned, is Elvis fucking Presley. We all know who he is. And even casual viewers of the Oscars know they love them. A biopic performance. They love someone based on real life. My argument against this it is not an original argument, certainly, is that you're just bringing in the good will of that person. Not only does the actor have a template to work off of, which is fine, Oscar voters are bringing in the goodwill that they feel from Elvis, the goodwill that they feel from to a certain degree, Richard Williams. The goodwill they feel from Freddie Mercury, Winston Churchill, Stephen Hawking, Abraham Lincoln, certainly. I mean, no. Abraham Lincoln. Perfect. Oh, that dude. That's just since 2010. You want to keep going? Harvey Milk? No. Edelman. Truman Capote. Ray Charles What is love? Spielman, Christie Brown, My Left Foot. Jake LaMotta. Raging Bull. So Gandhi. Ben Kingsley. It's always been kind of a thing, but it is a huge thing right now among these this new Academy of Voters, because, you know, there used to be about 3000 people who voted on he's now there's about 10,000. They love them, a real person. And the Abraham Lincoln one is is good to look at because like nobody was going to beat Daniel Day-Lewis for that. He deserved to win that. Whether people like or hate Lincoln doesn't matter. He deserved to win that. I don't think Gary Oldman deserved to win for playing Winston Churchill. I think Gary Oldman should have already had an Oscar but I think he kind of won that because it's like he's playing Winston Churchill. We all know how I feel about Edie Falco at her end made waiting for the theory of everything that didn't need to happen. Rami Malik I'm sure he's hurt. I'm certainly sure he's a nice guy. I like some of his performances. I like him in the Master. I like Mr. Robot. I like his acting. I do Freddie Mercury was not the best male performance of that year, not by a long shot. He still catches a lot of shit for that. And that has now become the template of like, do we want to keep doing this? He didn't do his own singing. Like, are we really going to keep giving these types of performances Oscars? That's the only thing working against Butler that was a long explanation, but people may be having some, you know, real person fatigue. So a lot of the people who are in contention for winning Oscars year are not playing real people. So it's not like every single acting category Oscar voters are. Oh, that's a real person. Oh, it's a real person. It's not like that. It's a long way of saying this is a hard one to call my theories with Fraser Notice we haven't even fucking mentioned Colin Farrell. Bummer. I would love if he swept in and won this could be another split the vote situation that I think that's where my dad's head is that the Butler and Fraser split votes and then Ferrell sneaks in there. I still got to go with Butler. I don't really like putting that in the world. I do think he's going to pull out a win and I'm not really happy about it. And that's just how I feel. What, you know, I would be celebrating if Ferrell or Fraser or said instead, and this is I'm thinking with my heart, but I'm also thinking with my head, I am going to I'm putting Brendan Fraser down for that. Awesome. I love it. Yeah, yeah. No complaints for me. I do. I actually think Fraser and Ferrell have a chance. I do it. Yeah, they do. This is all of them. The only real have to. Yeah, this is the only real acting category. That's kind of a three way race. I mean, it is. Ferrell has a fighting chance. He does. He does. All right, let's move on to actress in a supporting role. So really interesting category that completely got flipped on its head because of the SAG Awards. Angela Bassett for Wakanda Forever, Hong Chow, the Whale, Carey Condon Banshees, Jamie Lee Curtis Everything everywhere. Stephanie Shu Everything everywhere. Okay. Carrie Condon won the BAFTA. She gave a very lovely speech. You should go and just hug that award. Hong Chow just heard you on Marc Maron's podcast. I love you. I've always loved you. I she would get my vote. That's who I would vote for, to win my want now will Angela Bassett for Wakanda forever. This is tricky because she said a good Oscar train going in her favor. She won the Golden Globe critics choice and it's she's, you know, checking off these boxes. And I think just about everyone thought she was going to win the SAG. And Jamie Lee Curtis, his name was announced, someone who has also been campaigning like Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis, been out there campaigning hard for this. She wins and she gives a speech. I text you and I said, this speech is her last performance to win the Oscar because she's really putting it. She just delivered it. So I think this is Bassett versus Jamie Lee Curtis. And that is very interesting. And I don't know. I mean, I agree. I don't know how that's going to shake out. I really don't. The Angela Bassett performance is really interesting because it comes down to really one big scene, and it's a scene that lasts for about two and a half minutes. And it's been used as her Oscar clip and I'm sure it will be used as her Oscar clip. But she stands and she gives a commanding speech. But as watched the film, I didn't see a whole lot more to latch on to. Now, I'm an Angela Bassett fan. I love this performer. She should already have an Oscar. I think a lot of people I think a lot of voters are looking at this going, she should have an Oscar. But does it does it need to be for this like that? I don't know. I don't know if we're going to push that. Then you look at Jamie Lee Curtis, who's been around in the industry for a long time. This is her first nomination. There's no one who's going to be mad. I didn't even like that movie. I'm going to be mad if she wins that because I love her. So I don't know who to say as of right now. I'm sure I will have a more firm opinion on Oscar day. You know, as we go into the ceremony, a large part of me still, says Bassett, because, okay, well, I'm going to talk about everything everywhere overdrive in a second here. A large part of me does think Bassett can still win this. I don't know, though. It could be Jamie Lee. I don't know. Gary Condon all the way back in a now we're going to move on to actor in a supporting role. This is the easiest one to talk about, but I get to expand on my everything everywhere sort of theory. Here are the nominees. Brendan Gleeson Banshees. Brian Tyree Henry Causeway loved to see it. Judd Hirsch for his 9 minutes in the fable means Barry Keoghan and Banshees. Yeah, Kiwi Coen, everything everywhere. Who has won every single award imaginable leading up to this except the BAFTA, which they gave to Barry Keoghan, which just I was great. I loved it, great bow, But speech was like, Oh, about, I think 28 seconds long, so short it was just great. But Cuan will win this award without breaking a sweat Now noting that and I'm not going back, there is no narrative. The narrative for supporting actor is Cohen will win. That's just so noting that and noting that I do think everything everywhere will win picture and will win directing even if it wins picture or directing. I'm going to jump a little ahead. I do think it'll win editing. I'm skipping screenplay for now. I do think it'll win editing. So that's three picture director editing. Those are big awards. Are they really going to give it three acting awards? That's a huge deal. Or is Michelle Yeoh going to win and Jamie Lee Curtis and Kwan, We know Kwan is going to win. So that actually, I think works against Jamie Lee Curtis and Michelle Yeoh. It's a weird thing right now because I want to say I think Michelle Yeoh, Curtis and Kwan are going to win. In fact, I did just say that in this long explanation. But then when I look over it, I go three, Are they really going to give it three and picture and Director I don't know. That seems improbable, but as I talk all this out, maybe it is probable. I think that's a lot to give this movie a lot, but that's the way it's shaping up. Yeah. Yeah, I, I can't see you're wrong is. Yeah no I know. It's just let's move to one that I maybe I need to be thinking a little more as my head and not my heart, because I want this to be open. And maybe that's just me being optimistic. Original screenplay Banshees, Everything. Everywhere. Fable Men's Tar Triangle of Sadness. And is it smart for me to be hopeful and think that the Academy could do what they used to do in the nineties? Yeah. Okay. We all know that this big movie is going to win best picture. So let's give it to the the smaller movie that that was always what at least what original screenplay. Here we go. Noting that it is going to win big awards. Can anything else walk away with this? Because I actually think Banshee is fable means and taller all have a decent shot. But maybe that's just wishful thinking. Maybe this is as buttoned up as supporting actor and it's just going to be everything everywhere. I think This is actually going to go to banshees. Yeah. Why not like it? Could it could. He hasn't won. He didn't wait, you know, for three billboards so Martin McDonagh card I think it would just be I think that's how this is going to go. I do think it's most between Banshees and everything everywhere. If I don't know, we're going to see really early on if there is an everything everywhere wave there, there will be a wave. How big that will be. I'm not even sure it we're going to see. I think it's going to do well. I just don't know if it's a screenplay picture director in three acting categories. Well, I don't know. I mean, you're right. It's crazy. I mean, the wave you're talking about, it's setting itself up to be, like, quite possibly, like, monstrous. Let's move on to the very weird category that is adapted screenplay. I this one is kind of wide open. We have all quiet. We have glass. Onion, which I am stunned is here we have a living, which again, I'm stunned this year. Top Gun Maverick for Adapted Screenplay. No, no Top Gun. Maverick Cinematography, but Top Gun Maverick Adapted Screenplay and Women talking again, not Women are talking Women talking. I think this is an all quiet win. Yeah, I do. Because I do think all quiet is going to win international and I think they'll give it to this. My fun theory for Top Gun maverick and best picture. I don't think that applies to adapted screenplay because I don't know many people who watch that were like, Yeah, that was really well-written. Yeah, I did not expect that to be nominated here or Glass Onion. I was like, stunned when, Oh, okay. Someone I don't know, someone has good agents for who who wrote these movies because I did not expect to a good on and but my personal vote would be for all quiet and this is one of the few categories where my personal vote who I want to win. I actually think it could win. I do. I think this is a lock for all quiet on the Western front. Oh, really? Okay, cool. Going in strong. The lock. Yeah, Yeah. Okay. Updates two and three here. The Writers Guild of America Awards happened over the weekend after we recorded this episode. I do now think everything everywhere is a lock to win original screenplay. It did win the WGA award. And I mean, it just sounds like this thing is going to steamroll over all the other nominees and damn near every category. If you are a fan of everything everywhere and Elvis, you are going to have a very good night. If you are not a fan of those movies, pour it up or go to bed. I guess more importantly for this update, women Talking did win the WGA award. I frankly should have been paying closer attention to this for the Oscar win. I do think Sarah Polley will win this now. Polley, she's a great filmmaker. She's been acting since she was a kid. She's directed fine films, she's respected in the community, and I think she's going to win over all quiet on the Western Front. But it is close. It is close. Just put women talking on your radar to win this. Okay. Two more updates to come. So two more tape rewinding, interruption, things back to the show animated feature before we start to get into some of these more technical categories, I do want to say I've made a concerted effort to watch all of these. I'm not there's only like five movies that left that I'm going to mention that I haven't seen, including all the shorts, and I'll call those out. But it's had a lot of fun, you know, just checking off all these boxes of all these different sorts of films, all the animated animated feature. You love it. I did. I did. Oh, yeah. I love it. Animate I'm going to have don't worry at all. We're going to have some fun stuff to say in the animated column in a in a bit animated feature. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio. Marcel The Shell with Shoes On, which I watched recently on Showtime, which is very touching and I quite enjoyed it. Puss in Boots, The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, which I Watched and Turning Red, which I watched. Guillermo del Toro is going to win another Oscar for Pinocchio. Now, are you seeing that with your now? Okay, now tell me your face like your heart. Where would that go on here? Probably Pinocchio. I mean, I don't you know, it's again, I don't have like, my heart is not huge in this category. But Pinocchio was very just very, very cool to watch that stop motion animation is so impressive to me. And it's long and it's just grand and it's Guillermo del Toro And the fact that his name is in the title, the movie, I think he's going to get a lot of a lot of votes. All right. All right. That's cool. I haven't seen any of these, so I have no stake in this game. Documentary feature, all that breathes, all the beauty and the bloodshed. Fire of love, a house made of splinters, naval me. Apologies for my pronunciation of Navalny and our Oscar nominations episode. I wasn't aware of that story. That's on HBO. Watch that really intense documentary about a guy who called out Putin and it just really intense. Good documentary. Wow. Housemate It splinters. Yeah, it's about the Russian Ukraine war. I have not seen that. Fire of Love is a documentary about two people who were married who just explore volcanoes. There's amazing cinematography in it all. The beauty and the bloodshed is actually what I think will probably win here, and it is one that I have not seen. They're putting it on a streaming service a few days after the Oscars. So after that. What the fuck? Yes, exactly. But I hear it as great reviews. To be fair, it is in theaters. I could take my ass to a theater and see it, but I just haven't had time. All the breathes is on HBO. Very touching movie about two brothers who fix some injured birds like injured crows. I loved it. I absolutely loved it. So that would probably get my personal vote. Nevada is very, very good. Like just a really good documentary. This is that's it. Looking at these Rotten Tomatoes scores, this looks like it's the highest rated category of any of the categories. There's not 94 is the lowest rated thing here. Yeah. Fun fact. Fun fact. Sure. They really do. Step up. It's the only 100 on the entire list. All the Brits. Yeah, it was. That was a really good movie. I like that movie. Huge update here. I have now seen all the beauty and the bloodshed. It is available to rent for a fee, which I highly recommend doing so before Oscar night because I do think this is going to win Best documentary. I'm going to actually talk about it just for a second here. The film is about Nan Goldin. She's a famous photographer and activist, and the documentary shows her battling the infamous Sackler family over the opioid crisis. If you watch the Hulu show Dopesick with Michael Keaton, you know all about these Sackler assholes. These are the sick fucks who started Purdue Pharma and created OxyContin knowing full well that the drug is highly addictive. And they did this all in an effort to make themselves richer and filthier in many people's eyes, including Nan Goldin's. The Sackler family are responsible for the opioid crisis in America. But the Sacklers are smart. They know how to diversify their portfolios and make themselves seem like they're actual human beings by donating massive amounts of money to the most famous art museums in the world. Nan Goldin has not had an easy life, and the documentary recounts those events in a really honest way, including Golden's own addiction to opioids that nearly killed her. All the Beauty and the bloodshed. Very cool documentary. Nan Goldin is a badass. It's a lot of fun to watch her chain smoking her vape before she and a few dozen protesters stormed the Met in New York City and staged a peaceful protest in the Sackler Art Wing of the museum. Also to note, this movie was directed by Laura Portraits, who won the best documentary award for the Edward Snowden Doc Citizenfour in 2014. So she already has an Oscar and expect her to that again this year with, I presume, Nan Golden on stage right next to her. Back to the show. Okay. International feature film, all quiet on the Western Front from Germany, Argentina, 1985 from Argentina, close Belgium, Edo, Poland, the Quiet girl from Ireland. I have seen Argentina in 1985. It's on Amazon. Good courtroom thriller think Oh Christ. The end of it is just a long monologue and we don't have to see what that man is describing. That's what I'll say Wow close I have not seen that is in theaters just haven't gotten around to it It is on criterion and I watched that. What a weird, funky move. It was really, really out there. I just thought it's going to be about like a donkey. There's way more to it than that. It was out there. The quiet girl is one I have not seen. I have to assume this is all quiet. I have to assume it just has this sealed up. I think I think it is to. I have heard a lot of things like this category is actually quite talked about. I've heard a lot about EO, I've heard a lot about clothes and I've heard a lot about Argentina. But funny enough, the only one person I know personally has seen The Quiet Girl and they absolutely loved it. You know, I try to give all the movies a chance because that one, it's like it's not going to win. But I still like seeing it being like, Oh, you know what they represent? They were there. I love that. Yeah. All right. Here's a real fun one. Original score, All quiet, Babylon, Banshees, everything, everywhere. The fable means I can't believe it. Of course I want Babylon to win. I actually think it has a good chance of winning. I think he already has two Oscars. But this is one everything. It's won every major award. And this is one aspect of the film. Even people who hate the movie. And there are a lot of you I know everyone admits the score is awesome because it is. You can't believe it's all original composition. Yeah, it's like it's nuts that it's all original composition. So everything that Babylon is nominated for is my head and heart. I don't care. I'm busting through the wall. If Babylon can't win this, then I would give my picks all quiet on the Western front because of all quiet is is a very, very specific and very weird and very off putting score that that shouldn't work but it does very, very well. So I think for the creativity behind that is a very, very cool way to think about Score. Yeah, I think most people agree, which is good one because we're going to we could potentially have a win for Babylon, which is just a great feeling. Oscar winning film. Babylon Let's move on to Best Dog here, Diane Warren for applause from the film. Tell it like a woman. This woman has been nominated 14 times, 14 competitive Oscar nominations, owns and has never won. And she is not going to win this year. And that's a little sad. But hold my hand by Lady Gaga, Top Gun Maverick, Lift me up from Wakanda Forever by Rihanna. Not to Not Too from RR. And this is a life. Everything everywhere. I actually think the RR song is going to win. I really do. Really. He has a lot I think it has a lot of just fun behind it. I think it has a lot of steam behind it. I think people view it as this like kind of joyous, over-the-top celebration. I really thought it was going to do better nomination wise. I really thought it was going to be nominated for international feature film. I think it's going to be a little I'll look at us to the more perhaps famous people nominated in that category, and they're just going to get up there and have a hell of a time celebrating its win. I do it. That's what I think's going to win. I mean, I love Gaga, but now you tell me that it's their person. Diane Warren has been nominated 14 times. I mean, if I can just give it to her. I know she's got a weighted subway. It's mean. Yes. So I mean, nominating her like it's just going to make her get all dressed up. Yes. That's Jason with this carriage. I bet she has a hell of a time. Makeup and hairstyle, feeling all quiet. The Batman. That's definitely for Colin Farrell. It's the Penguin, which is just a great flex I love. Yeah, I loved his suit up. And that Wakanda forever Elvis the whale. Okay. Potential narrative for this is it's the common narrative of if you see the smaller movie win, then look out for that lead actor to also win. Isaiah Tammy Faye Dallas Buyers Club. I know I brought this up before on this podcast, but if the whale wins here because makeup and hairstyling will be given out for best actor, if the whale wins, look closely for Fraser to win best actor and that is cool. Other chances to win. You can have Elvis. You could have Elvis very easily come in and win this because they aged him up. There's you know, I get it. And if Elvis wins again, maybe that means Butler's going to win. Actor I don't know. I would love for the whale to win this. I would vote for that. Yeah, I would vote for it too. I don't know. Yeah, it was. Will it? I don't know. I don't know if it will. I don't know. I don't know how many different types of colored dirt you can put on the lead actor and all quiet on the Western front to get him to win it. Oh yeah, that's true. But I don't think it's going to wait as they really beat the shit out of those boys, though, man. Those boys were roughed up in that movie. Got costume design. We have our beloved Babylon, Wakanda forever, Elvis, everything. Everywhere Mrs. Harris goes to Paris, which I did watch. It was quite lovely. My heart wants to say Babylon so badly to give it perhaps two Oscars. I think this is Elvis. Yeah, this has to be like this. It's just those costumes. I yeah, I think it's just kind of locked in. And you have so many of these costumes that were just shown for not even almost like a full second in some of like the. Yeah. Very quick edits to show how many shows you would do. So you just write like, like a flipbook, like, just like through all of these different colors and textures that you don't even really get to see. But that's how much work they put into it. I think you got to give it to two. Elvis Yeah, I do think it'll win. I would vote. I would want Babylon to win, but I do think Elvis will take it. Here's a crazy one crazy phrase on the nominees. Crazy to predict cinematography. All quiet. Bardo. Yes. Chronicle the handful of truths. Yes. Elvis, Empire of Light and Tor. Wow. I think the winners are going to be Top Gun Maverick, which is what I thought was going to wait. It's not nominated. No. Holy shit. I guess looking at these, I think all quiet will win. I mean, Tara is. Tara looked great, but I love Tara's cinematography. Definitely look great. I still I haven't heard anyone talking about it. I won't watch the ceremony next year if Elvis wins this. The cinematography in Elvis is not good. I'll give you I'll give you costume design. Don't. Come on. Come on, people. I don't want to talk about this. I don't. Wow. Best cinematography. This category is over. I'm not sure. I'm not sure what to say. I know a lot of people quite enjoyed the film. Elvis. Good on you, Nick and I did not. I understand that Austin Butler's performance is the type that attracts a lot of Academy attention. I do believe he will win Best Actor and wow, this movie is going to win Best Cinematography. The American Society of Cinematographers is not technically a guild, but it is a very important organization for cinematographers, so important that you will often see the organization listed in the Director of Photography Credit in a movie. So for Elvis, it would read Director of Photography, Mandy Walker, comma AC. You see that AC and a lot of credits. Anyway, the AC is a big deal and they awarded their top prize this year to Mandy Walker for Elvis. And it's important to keep in mind that no woman has ever won the best cinematography Oscar. And that is an angle. The people behind the Elvis Oscar campaign are hitting very hard in the press right now. She's going to win this year, and that's what it is. Back to the show, production design, another kind of funky category. All Quiet Avatar, The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, the Fable Man. So production design means, you know, the way things look, the sets, how are things meshing together? That's kind of the, you know, art direction they used to call this. So think of it in that sense. And I suppose in that sense with Avatar, it's because they did have to. They build a lot of stuff that they're jumping on and running around. I don't I don't really understand fully that, you know why it's here. I would think that'd be more visual base. But again, as we talked about on our Way of Water podcast, I'm sure there's a lot of technical stuff to that that is just a little bit over our heads. A friend of mine, she showed me a a very, very quick snippet of kind of detailing a little bit of the specificity that went into the production design of Avatar. It is the use of practical props and set building and all of that stuff meshed with the visuals was something a little bit more in depth than I originally thought. There's probably so much now, probably there is just way more to what we think of production design with Avatar. Oh yeah, but still, all that being said, Babylon baby, God, I would love for Babylon to win this. That is what would get my vote. Look at everything in that movie. I guess. I think it's between them. It's hard to say, you know, production design as a category didn't exist with that title 229 It was called Art Direction. But Avatar did win that. It did win art direction in 2009. So does it does it in. And again, it's it's not even a sneak and it's like, no, obviously this is going to win. I mean, I definitely think Avatar is going to walk away with at least one Oscar, which were the category of which we are going to get to. But yeah, I think this is between Avatar and Babylon, and I wouldn't be mad at either of them. I would love for Babylon to have another Oscar. Yes. Or just one. All quiet could take this, too. It could. It could. Building out all those trenches and stuff. It absolutely could. Film editing, banshees, Elvis, everything. Everywhere. Tor Top Gun, Maverick. There's lots to say about film editing. Usually. Not always. Usually it is a good barometer of what will go on to win Best picture. They often they link up. It's not all the time. Sometimes it does go to the more well done action fare. The Bourne Ultimatum, Top Gun Maverick. Perhaps we're going to see. But I still think they're going to give this everything everywhere. I think it's a lock. I think it's a lock on everything. Everywhere. Yeah. It's interesting that everything everywhere and Elvis, I think, would be classified as something that I don't even mean. This be rude because I wasn't the biggest fan of those movies. But there is no you cannot disagree that there's a lot of cutting in those movies. There is a lot of some might say that awarding one of those films is you're kind of awarding the most editing, whereas Banshees and Taylor very deliberately pace a little bit slow, you know, slower. And then you put those in those columns maybe that does leave Maverick, which is just kind of a conventionally put together, but very well put together movie. Knowing all of that, I still think it's everything everywhere. Visual effects, all quiet Avatar, The Way of Water, The Batman. Wakanda Forever Top Gun Maverick. I think I have to assume the way water walks off with this in a walk off. So if you're checking that box, you also put production design. And so and so on. Do you also put sound? Yeah, we're going to see. But I mean, this has to be Avatar, right? Oh, weird. If it doesn't win, it would be the most bizarre thing I've seen in my life. I've seen some shit in my time and I don't know what I would do if Avatar the way of water, the most astounding visual thing I've ever seen on a movie doesn't win visual effects. It's true. All right, so Avatar is three left here. Documentary Short subject, The Elephant Whisperers. Hello. But how do you measure a year? The Martha mitchell effect and stranger at the gate. How do you measure a year? Sounds really cool. Like her dad filmed his daughter. You know, every year of her life. That's the only one I haven't seen. The elephant whisperers cried while watching it on Netflix. So are people who love elephants. I loved it. It's my vote. I loved it. What's going to win? I don't know. I typically get these wrong. Short Film live action, an Irish goodbye, a value let poop play night ride the red suitcase. I've actually seen three of I've seen Night Ride an Irish goodbye and the red suitcase. Now what you say Night ride was good. I mean, they're all fine. They're fine. What I've seen not as strong of a showing. I will say as I've seen from this category in the past, and I really look forward to them. Best short film animated. I've seen all these Baby, The boy, the the fox and the horse. That was just one movie. Not for movie number two, the Flying Sailor. Movie number three, ice merchants. Movie number four, say is My Year of Dicks. Yeah. Movie number five in Ostrich told me the world is fake. And I think I believe it, which was actually quite a charming stop motion animation movie that I really, really liked. Here's why. Called you the Flying Sailor? Because when I turned on my Year of Dicks, you could find all these. You could watch them for free. There are a lot of the filmmakers just put them on their Vimeo counts for free, which I really appreciate it. I Spent an hour watching all of them, reviewed them all on Letterboxd. I'm going to get to that in a second. My Year of Dicks is exactly what it sounds like. It's a girl in college who wants to lose her virginity and she's just narrating it. It's a lot of fun. Now, many of us on letterbox agreed because I did start talking with a few fine folks on there that when we started the flying Sailor, none of us thought that it would contain more dicks than my year of dicks. Well, just to say that my year of dicks contains none and, the Flying Sailor is just this guy contemplating his life while, like, flying through the air and he's just butt naked, hanging down a lot of fun just hanging out. Is this out there? Good. Watch. Go spend. If you want to go spend an hour and watch these, they're worth it. They're fun. What will what will win that? I certainly hope Year of Dicks wins. I think with that intriguing of a title, it kind of has to offer that. Surely Dick's high now could be a letdown. That's it for every major category. We can go to final thoughts here but we I'm glad we talked about all those narratives, who we think will win, who we want to win. We will post our ballots on Twitter on actual Oscars, Sundays. You can have a verified account just for fun. You know, will we walk away with everything scoring seven or eight? And if that happens, it means it has won a shitload of major awards. That's really the one to watch. Other things to watch early on. Again, if the if the whale wins make up, look out for Brendan there to win. Actor cinematography is what I'm eyeing very closely. Can't wait for that award there can be a lot of fun best sound just because we've built it up a lot. It's going to be a lot of fun. Celebrations, Possible celebrations. I will celebrate if Andre Riseborough pulls out that win. I'll just it's not going to happen, but it would be hilarious. Fraser or Ferrell. That'll get a hug for me. A hug for me too. You know, you'd fucking carry Condon if she ends up winning that, I'll get a hug. Second, a McDonagh winning screenplay. I'll cheer for that one. That would be great. I would love that happen. That's about it for me, for hugs. Well, that's it. We're not going to hug after every single one. Fuck no. Why? The ones that we know we're going to win. We don't do that. We don't hug 24 times after every Oscar. Now, maybe we should think it's going to be a fun show. I have no idea what the show is going to be. I mean, I feel like the Oscars, in terms of the ceremony themselves are just lost at sea. I have no expectations for the ceremony itself. Fair enough. Yeah. I'm excited to watch. I'm glad not everything is totally sealed up. It's been really nice to have, you know, at least some of the shed is open. That's been good. That's it. Move on to What are you watching here? Dealer's choice Any damn thing you want down on picked out and I. Of course I do. Of course I do. I always do. Bullshit. All right, let's hear it then. If we're about the best movie of the year, there is a movie that came out at the end of 2022 that I just saw for the first time that I can't not recommend with all of my heart. And that's thinking I got to find that fucking Jesus. I can't even remember what it's called. It's a movie love with all of his heart that he can't remember. He Hang on, hang on, hang on. I just have to get the full things. I remember what it's mostly called. There is a show on Netflix starring Will Arnett called Murder Ville. And they came out with a holiday special, which is a full length. And it's called Who Killed Santa a Murder Ville Mystery. This movie, I have not laughed this hard at a movie in a long time I was losing my shit. I saw it on my flight back. I had to stop. I was I was I was concerned for the person next to me because I was I my body was moving so hard. So what's the cool thing about these this show? All of the actors are in on the mystery, except they get a special celebrity who comes in. In this case, it's Jason Bateman. So you're reuniting from Arrested Development acclaim Jason Bateman and Will Arnett, Jason has no idea what's happening. He has not been clued in to anything. There's this. He's not playing a character. He's just showing up to the set. And then they just doing these things around him. And Will Arnett kind of is the ringleader that is like, Do this now, Jason and and now do this. What do you think? And at the end of it, Jason Bateman has to guess who the murderer is. It's so much fun and it's ridiculous. And they they don't cut for when actors like start to crack like so Jason Bateman will be completely like laughing at the ridiculousness of the situation. And so will Will Arnett, which is even funnier when he even heard of this. Oh, dude, it is a blast. It's really, really fun. And the I can't recommend it enough hook What's it called again? One more time. Who killed Santa? A murder ville mystery and it is on Netflix mindset that inventive but I do have a few I don't have many like traditions in my life. Things that I do every year. You know I feel like had a lot as kids now I don't one tradition I have I've had to broaden a little bit the weekend of the Oscars. I always used to watch the movie. I wanted to win best picture, just always, even if it didn't have a chance, it was just always my tradition. It actually used to be the day. So like my parents and I, either my mom and my dad or both of us, we would all go to the theater to see that movie, like on Oscar Sunday, like at noon or something. And it was always just so fun. Then as it expanded, I was like, okay, I got to try to watch it in the weekend. Now it's like the whole week. So leading up to Oscar week, I have to at least watch the movie that I want to win. Best Picture, though, not since 1997 when we went and saw Good Will Hunting in the theater that Sunday. We knew like hell it wasn't going to win, but we all win salt anyway. So this year is going to be triangle sadness for me. Yet again. A movie that I love, that I've recommended this podcast Never at a What are you watching? Never an official What are you watching? Recommendation. I'm doing that because finally this movie's a little easier to find. You can rent it for like 599. It's not officially on a streaming service yet, but I want people to go watch it and have an opinion about it because it's nuts. And it's funny, I to my wife, I didn't know if it would be her vibe. She loved it. She thought it was great. And then we had a really fun conversation after about the ending and about how it is split up into three different sections and you can kind of go, Oh, I like that part of it. I don't know if I like that one as much. It's just a really fun, engaging watch. So I'm only bringing that up. This is our Oscar episode and that is the Oscar movie I will be watching, even though it has no chance at hell, at probably winning anything. That's it. All right, man. All Right. It's fine. You know, double down. I'll see you soon out there for the Oscars again. Stay tuned. We're going to record our episode right after they air. It will be up a day or two later, but that's going to be a lot of fun. As always, thank you for listening and happy watching. Hey, everyone. Thanks again for listening. You can watch my films and read my movie blog at Alex Withrow dot com Nicholas Dose Tor.com is where you can find all of Nick's film work. Send us mailbag questions at What Are You Watching Podcast at gmail.com or find us on Twitter at w aiw underscore podcast. Next time we'll be coming to you live directly following the 95th Annual Academy Awards. Nick is going to try and be humble. I am going to try and be nice what a time. Stay tuned with Angela Bassett for Black Panther. Wakanda Forever. Hong Chow the way called it Black Panda Shit. I've done that before too. Black panda, huh? I do that all the time. All the time. That's like the first time. Yeah. It's like panda forever.