Possibility and Probability

In this episode, learn how embracing possibilities and turning them into probabilities can propel you to achieve greatness. From the inspiring journey of Arnold Schwarzenegger to the vital importance of daily reps and small actions, this podcast will reshape your perspective and equip you with the mindset to conquer challenges and reach your full potential. Don't miss out on this extraordinary opportunity to elevate your life and leadership. Subscribe now and unlock a world of possibilities.

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Dale (00:13.966)
probability and possibility to unleash your best in life and work. Welcome to the Game Changers podcast. I'm your host Dale Dixon. I help leaders be their best on stage and in front of the camera. I'm also a chief innovation officer for a better business bureau. Eric Bowles coaches, trains and inspires leaders to unleash their potential and the potential of those around them. Eric, so good to be with you again today.

eric boles (00:36.418)
Always great being with you, my friend.

Dale (00:38.898)
As we record this, it's a Thursday morning. So it is a Thursday morning right after a Powerball drawing. And this one I think was the third largest in history. It was a billion dollars. And the only reason I know this is because there's a massive billboard that shows the current dollar value of the prize. And as I drove in this morning,

it had reset from one billion down to 20 million. So I thought, oh, somebody, you know, basically got struck by lightning 13 or 15 times, whatever, you know, you have a one in 13 million chance of being struck by lightning and a one in 255 million chance of actually winning this thing. And so that's what's fostering the conversation this morning, but you know, just to set the stage, I was watching a newscast earlier this week and they were,

eric boles (01:21.016)
Hahaha

Dale (01:37.134)
talking about the people lined up at some state border to buy tickets. And a guy held up a handful of tickets and said he just spent $130. And we're recording this via video. You can see my face, but there's pain on my face. As I watched this and I thought, you just blew $130.

on a one in 255 million chance, I think is what the odds are. Don't quote me on that. But that's a probability. What happens when we invest in possibility? And that's the focus of our conversation today, Eric. So let's riff on that. You just watched a documentary and there's a lot of ways we're going to go with this conversation today. I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be an interesting one.

eric boles (02:30.076)
Yeah, so when we talk about possibilities and probabilities, I was once told in Weal, it even hurt the pastors, there's even a biblical pastor that says, all things are possible to them that believe, right? So all things are possible. But I say very often, all things may be possible. That doesn't mean all things are probable, right? Like probabilities matter, right? And I know it's not as fun and as exciting and as sexy,

Usually if somebody's spending $150 on Powerball tickets, and that's just this one time. There's a good chance they're gonna do it several times. And I sit there and wonder, just say if somebody spent, have tried this for, you know, every, I don't know how frequently the Powerball dynamic works, but just say they've been at this for 10 years. And you accumulated all the resources they spent in that time.

to become a billionaire or to win whatever that number is. And then they found a more sensible investment to deal with those same dollars, where the probability of return is significantly higher. And I sit there and I go, why wouldn't they do that? And sometimes the intrigue, the excitement of, in the dreams of man, one, if I had, you know,

once I was financially free, you know, and just, oh, how great would that be? And I've talked to even the relatives who have a tendency to lean in this direction. And I just go, so often you put your hopes into possibilities, like, and that whose probability is almost zero, literally, one in 250 million dollars,

eric boles (04:25.516)
chance to win is you know that's like you know Jim Carrey and Dumb and Dumber so you're telling me there's a chance no there's no chance man like the probability is that low now I laugh about it but I sit there and wonder what would have happened just to your own confidence if you were doing things that actually in a practical way raised your probability

Dale (04:48.318)
I'm going to tell people this is not a podcast about a lottery. As we were having a brief conversation leading in, what really caught me is this idea and something you've talked about in the past. I think it's the opportunity for us to look at our leadership styles and how we're working on this idea of depending on the big play versus focusing.

eric boles (05:09.687)
Yes.

Dale (05:11.546)
on the small plays and what kind of progress we can make. So that's really, you know, just, just if people are, have their finger on that pause button, like, I'm not playing the lottery and I really don't care. It's where are you playing the lottery in your own life? Where are you depending, you know, holding out hope for a really big play with small probability versus looking at the small plays where you have significant possibility. And so that's just to clarify.

eric boles (05:12.769)
Yep.

eric boles (05:24.472)
That's good.

eric boles (05:39.062)
And one of the things that, you know, we've talked about it again, but man, to build a winning, if it was sports, to build a winning team, to build a winning culture, and winning, not just to get a win, but a winning culture. And that is dependent on small plays with high probabilities of success.

because of the discipline of doing the right thing over and over. Doing those high probabilities then lead to the possibility that you're really after. But it's like there's nothing wrong with setting the possibility, right? It's like all things are possible, yeah, but how many things are probable that lead to that possibility? So we always say in sports the big play is going to come out of the doing the little plays consistently. I tell this to organizations, man, if

What lowers probability? Well, the things that usually lower probabilities is how many things got to go right? How many different things got to go right for that to work? And so in sports, we say, man, if it takes a one-handed catch at the right time in the right moment, right wind conditions, right thing, and we're building all our hope on that, that's not sound. And so when we talk about

The goal is how do we turn possibilities into probabilities? How do we raise the probability of that happening? Now there's unbelievable stories out there, right? And I know we started off talking about the lottery, but and people say I don't play the lottery, but the reality is if you really look, if you do an autopsy, if you really look closely and dig into

What things are you depending on right now that you're like, Hey, we're going to hit this number at the end of the month. I was like, based on what, okay. You know, I talk to salespeople often. Well, you know, I'm going to hit that number because I got this one meeting with this one prospect. I said, so you got one prospect, you got one meeting, you got one, that's all you have. And you're telling me that meeting has to go right. Everything about it, every, for you to hit that number.

and you're depending on that. And not only are you depending on that, your company's depending on that. The people who work for you are depending on that. Everything, your families are depending on that. How wise is that? Especially when you still had time to add additional prospects to that and you have additional time to analyze where are you spending resource right? There's so many things that can increase your probability of success.

But you're depending on the big play. And then when that doesn't go, or if they unfortunately give you a phone call and say, we're going to have to delay the meeting, and everything falls down from that, that's not a representation of, like many people feel, who don't win the Powerball. Nothing good ever happens to me. That's the danger of relying on possibilities because that are so far out of your control.

It's your mindset when it doesn't go your way. Well, there's a 250 million chance it wasn't gonna go your way. I mean, what, what? Anyways, I'm not downplaying, I'm not, but this is the kind of, and I say this to leaders often, leaders, we are also dealers in hope. We deal in hope. We want our people to acquire the picture, the vision, the excitement of what's.

Dale (09:06.754)
Hehehehe

eric boles (09:28.472)
possible. But we also include that. We want them getting excited about the possibility. But also willing to look at the probability. And the probability probably includes real work. Probably includes real effort. And we have to realize as leaders, we have to live in both worlds. Like we have to be also, we have to really sell the possibility. And we also have to really sell this what increases the probability. Right?

This is what it's going to require. And even when we spill the things that it requires, there's a high probability that we're going to have to course correct. There's a high probability that there will be variables we couldn't control, so we have to get up again. So the vision keeps us going. But I always like to say that daily coaching creates the kind of resiliency. The greatest thing that happens when we make possibilities into reality is not that we ended up with that possibility.

It's what happened to us on the journey. It's the fact that it required that kind of work and alignment and due diligence to get there.

Dale (10:34.978)
So let's break this down. If we're going to accurately assess probability and identify possibility, what are some of the steps that we as leaders should be considering and taking in our daily lives and business?

eric boles (10:56.944)
One of the things, I like to do everything in the form of almost like a math equation, just for the sake of giving it something. We sit there and get excited about the possibility, right? And just quantify the possibility. The possibility is whatever that goal or that ambitious thing you're going after is. Now it's important to have, right? Like, cause I would like to say, possibility is like, this is what we're capable of. This is what the vision is. This is...

the goal we're going after that's outside of the realm of gift. Now, when we talk about increasing the probability, when we deal with the probability, what excites us about the possibility is the equation for the probability is this. What's the benefit we're going after? That excites us. OK?

But that also has to include the other variable, honest assessment of what does that look like from a work standpoint? So what kind of work must we put into that? So these are the benefits if we hit that possibility, right? Say it this way, possibility we want to win the Super Bowl. Great, what's the benefit of winning the Super Bowl? Recognition, rings, parade, money.

on average all that oh man that is so exciting but then we turn around and we got to multiply that by the excuse me we got to look at that by the amount of work we're gonna have to put into that and we have to be honest about that like what we want all those benefits based on that outcome is dictated by the amount of work we have to put in and when I talk about work

I'm not just talking about busyness. I'm talking about essential work that many times we might have to adjust so we're just not wasting effort and energy. You know, it's so important that there's the work. That has to be multiplied. I know there's the benefits. Mine is to work multiplied by the probability or multiplied by the likelihood that work leads to this.

Okay, so you can tell me here's what we're going after. Here's the thing and here's all the work we got to do. But when you look at all the work we got to do, we also have to combine that with our skill level, our talent level, are we in the right realm? And then look, people are pretty honest. If that equals zero, all that hard work, right? And inside we don't feel like even if we work that hard, the likelihood.

that we're going to be good enough to get that, it's probably zero, then all that is multiplied by zero. So that's why that matters so much, Dale, where leaders will sit back and go, here's what we want to do. Here's the benefits of doing it, and it really matters, but here's the work it's going to take. But as you look at the work, we have to be good at the work, because if we're doing the work, but don't truly believe that work is going to end up being that outcome,

we will, motivation will leave the building, right? Like now we're just grinding, you know, now we're just, we're doing a lot of activity, but may not be, you know, leading to what we're going after. It kind of reminds me of a, I heard this one from a pilot who said in a funny way, he goes, he comes over to speaker and he goes, I got good news and bad news. And he's talking to all the, those who are on the flight. He goes, I got good news and bad news. The bad news is,

our navigation or instrumentation panel is gone out. So we have no clue where we're going. But the good news is we have a tailwind, so we're making good progress getting there. Right? And so on both sides, there's some groups who have fabulous destinations where they're going. But they aren't honest about the fact that they're flying into a headwind.

Dale (14:50.434)
Yeah.

eric boles (15:06.94)
They don't have enough fuel. You know what I'm saying? So people are grinding. But the probability that they're getting there, they've got to multiply that. And so pretty soon, motivation is going to go away because there's no way we can get there with what we're doing. And then on the other side, people have all the resources, doing all kinds of work, but you haven't dictated where you want to go in the first place. So possibility and probability have got to work together. Like, they come together. Our goal is, yes, that's possible.

But is it probable? And it may be possible, but might not be at the same time frame. So let's look at the work we got. Let's look at where we're going. And let's make sure we have honest conversation about getting there. This is why I love the quote by, I believe, Antoine Saint-Exubery. I might get his first name wrong. But he had a great quote that said, if you want to build a ship, don't begin by giving people work and assigning tasks and just

getting materials. He gives first, help your people fall in love with the immensity of the sea. Because those who fall in love with the immensity of the sea will find a way to build the ship. So it doesn't remove the work. It just aligns the work and what we're going after to make sure they're going together to keep the motivation high. My buddy Eric Van Alstine calls it the motivation equation. These two things work together.

where we're going in the work. And we're honest about the work and courageous about the work, but we're inspired by the ideal where we're going. So leaders, that's what we're making sure. It's a both and world, not an either or. There's some leaders who just wanna talk about the work. Now it feels like drudgery, right? And you got other leaders who only wanna talk about where we're going. Rather now we're living in La Land because usually you get to talk about where we're going because you're not doing the work like the same way. So it's the combination of both.

that really make it work.

Dale (17:04.294)
You you bring me back to Jim Collins good to great in the stockdale paradox You must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end regardless of the difficulties and at the same time This is what you're talking about have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they may be

eric boles (17:22.679)
There you go. That's it, man. And the thing about that gives people so much hope when it comes to, so much hope, when it comes to, at least in the midterm, but I don't like it, I call it false hope. I know I'm not, but false hope. And when I say by false hope is, cause they think they can get shortcuts, and so.

if I can be the one, whoever that one person is who got the 250, whoever got the billion dollars, right? It's like, see, no, but when I say false hope, it's not hope that has gone through the fire. It's not hope that has had to be earned. It's not a strength of hope. It's wishful thinking, right? So when I, you and I were talking earlier, and for those who haven't seen the documentary on Arnold Schwarzenegger, fabulous watch. I'm just, this is my personal opinion.

I loved every ounce of it, right? And I don't love it because, ooh, I'm an Arnold Swartz and Hager fan. I am very aware of Arnold's life. I think we all are, right? But again, I am more, you know, I am far more fascinated, not how champions are celebrated in the light. I am far more fascinated how they were made in the dark. That's the story, right? So by the time everybody has an opinion,

Dale (18:28.47)
He's a human being.

eric boles (18:43.184)
is when they finally got into the light. But the real story is what happened in the dark when no one was looking, right? Like, that's the stuff that matters. And this gets into it. And the fact that this man born in, you know, after World War, during World War II era, but where he lived there in Austria, in this small town, and, you know, all the things that came along with that, and, oh, and to end up where he ended up.

And primarily it was because he walked down the street one day, looked in the window and saw a guy who looked like a bodybuilder who was the, he was a bodybuilder who played the part of Hercules right in the movie. And he was like, oh, and everything in his life came out of that. And some people look at it like, oh, he just got, no, the probability from where he was to where he ended up, the probability is really low. Now, people are like, well, he didn't have a possibility.

Yes, his possibilities continued to grow as time went. Because when he saw that picture of the guy on the cover, he didn't sit there and go, in two minutes, I can become that. He started putting in work. And if you watch the amount of work he put in to get there, driven by the vision, willing to look at the brutal facts of how to get there. And then every single time he faced another brutal fact, he found a way to get to the next bit. How do I get to it? How do I?

make money and do everything to get to that show that's going to be showing up there. Well, if I'm going to get there, I better be in the best shape. So what does that mean? I'm going to work two out, two, two times, three times a day. We got all this science today and all this down. Don't over train. All that may be true, but I am more talking about the will of a kid who's so committed to something that he's willing to put into that. Now,

I love that because he turned a possibility into the probability. Every time that possibility became a clear probability that was going to happen, what did he do? He set another possibility so far out of, you know, to anybody else's reality that they're like, oh, that can never happen. Here's what I dealt in, not to get too deep with people, but, you know, Malcolm McAuliffe

eric boles (21:07.452)
I love it, right? And so we all know the Bible. I love the way Mappleglad will describe it and wrote it. But it was awesome, right? But I love this. What I love about, basically my big thing is like, it's always amazing to me how people talk about David and Goliath and we all know the story. We're using this sports as analogies. We're like, ah, you know, David versus Goliath. And I've always laughed at this. It's like,

Dale (21:07.8)
Yes.

Dale (21:14.51)
100%.

eric boles (21:36.652)
Goliath wasn't for David. That was for everybody else. Like, you know, like at the aha moment, we're like, oh, David and Goliath, and David took out Goliath. Do you look at David's attitude towards Goliath? Like, we look at it as a big deal. He did not, right? The kid ran towards what he was competing against. Why? Because for him, it was what he did before he ever got to Goliath. It was him killing a lion and a bear,

the perfection of getting that slingshot down and all the stuff, the grind that he did day after day after day. So finally when the moment arrived, what looked like an incredibly like difficult odds to everybody else wasn't difficult odds for him. Because what he was doing, like we said before, champions are made in the dark, but they're celebrated in the light. We have a tendency to believe their confidence came

when they got celebrated in a light. No, as an audience, we got it backwards. That's why everybody got opinions of stars or got opinions of leaders or got opinion of anything that has notice. And I'm sitting here going, I hear you, but you guys are talking about the wrong thing. You need to talk about the story before the story. Like that's far more interesting. Like what did they go? Yes, it's the raps, it's the...

Dale (22:57.986)
the reps.

eric boles (23:01.16)
It's the things that have probability connected to it. If I can do that over and over and over and over and over again, it leads to this. Not to go too far. It was interesting. When I was speaking at the American Orthopedic Society for Sports Medicine, so these are the top orthopedic surgeons in the country. I mean, they're from an academic standpoint, from an individual practice standpoint, I mean, for every sports team, major sports team.

These are the orthopedic surgeons for every university. These are the orthopedic surgeons. And the professors of those who put great orthopedic surgeons out there. So it was fascinating for me to sit there before I ever spoke on leadership and influence, to be there with all these brilliant minds. Because as they talked about ACL constructions and problems with the bottom physically, they were talking about me. Because I remember telling the group, I was like, hey, you have an opportunity to be in position.

with some of the most, it's not that you're just at a time with some incredible athletes and great athletes and whether that's the weekend athlete or the big time, you're usually meeting with someone and helping them at one of their lowest times mentally, right? Because for me, when that happened, you're basically telling me my job description, my identity, what I found is now changing. So that surgeon's role in those spots.

or even beyond them. So I was like, as much as you're talking about the data and the objective view of this and the science behind it, the person you're doing the surgery on isn't looking at it the same way. Like my life is about to change, right? And just to watch them and be so moved by it. But while I was there, right, in hearing and enjoying, I got a chance to meet a gentleman named Dr. Nick, and we were in the gym together.

And we were watching Wimbledon, right? And it was in between sets. So just if people think I was in the gym watching TV, no, it was in between. But what was so funny, we'd been talking, and somehow or another, follow this now, I began to talk about the Arnold Schwarzenegger documentary. And I was like, ah, different mind, but yeah, because I was still fascinated by the work and the time and all this. And Dr. Nick smiles and goes, man, what a small world. I said, what do you mean, Dr. Nick? He used to be the...

head orthopedic surgeon and he was, he did, for years he was the head doctor for the Philadelphia 76ers. So I mean, it's just unbelievable stories and stuff he's done. And he shows me his phone. He's texting back and forth with Arnold Sorghum. Ha ha ha! It was so awesome, man! So Arnold was in town and they were probably gonna get together for dinner. I mean, it was amazing! You know, and I'm just talking about the document. You see how it influences me, right? And it's his story, right?

And there was one part of the documentary, those who haven't watched it, watch it. And believe me, good and bad, all of it's revealed. But there was one thing he did that I'm still so impressed by. While Arnold was going after this certain possibility, to be a movie star who doesn't speak the language very well, like to be a movie star, at that time versus just being a big brunt, you know,

And people were like, well, how did he make it? How did, I mean, in the States? Well, in the meantime, and it's a small thing said about in the documentary, but they didn't go in it deeply, Arnold was taking his winnings from lifting and money he made from little things here and there, and he invested all of it in the real estate.

So while he was going after his possibilities, he was also creating the right probabilities for financial independence, which gives him even greater opportunity to go after those possibilities. So I would hear somebody say, well, it's amazing. When you become governor, you can do this when you got plenty of money to work with. It didn't always start that way. What did he do when he only had a few dollars? What did he do with that? Those are the kind of levels of thinking.

That is so awesome. I can dream and do the real work at the same time. Like, I don't have to be a dreamer or a worker. I can be both. And this is where I can continue to tell leaders, man, you gotta be a possibility thinker and a probability thinker, and you match those things. And when we can do that, man, it's hard to be stopped.

Dale (27:39.378)
If you want to maximize your possibility and the probability of success, you focus on the small things. It's doing the daily reps. That's it. It always comes, you know, it's the great paradox. It's always getting back to simplicity. We overthink this stuff and we get caught up in what about the big win? What about the big play? And it's not about the big play. It's about doing.

eric boles (27:51.744)
That's it, man. That's it. I got a little excited.

Dale (28:08.03)
It's such a fantastic, I'm preaching to the choir on this one because I'm thinking about so many things in my own life where I need to be applying this. So thank you for the reminder and we use something in the current culture to drive the conversation, but it has implications for, I believe it has implications for everybody. I don't know of anybody that doesn't get caught up sometimes.

eric boles (28:25.627)
Hahaha

Dale (28:35.01)
counting on the big play when it's really the focus on the small thing that matters most.

eric boles (28:36.364)
Man.

eric boles (28:39.756)
You ain't kidding. Last thing I share with you, man, which was just a fantastic, like, aha moment. In the talking with, in talking with Dr. Neck, you know, in that moment, it wasn't even about Arnold, right? But talking with Dr. Neck and even asking about his story, it is amazing.

when you ask individuals who've been accomplished, like many of the people I'm talking to right now who are listening, many of them are accomplished, it's important that you have moments that you reflect on those, not the big play, that's just the outcome, but you keep reflecting back on all the little things that prepared you, that raised the probability for you to take action that led to the possibility of where you are now, like those little things.

We have a tendency to discard those little natural things or that seem not that big of a deal and make a big deal of the big things. Man, those big things, bro, those come and go, but they usually are a result of all those little things you paid attention to and you made sure you did habitually to the point where they're now so habitual. You may have forgotten that they're a part of what you do every day. So it's nice to sit back and do kind of your own personal assessment.

and go, man, what are those little things I do consistently that has raised the probability for what I'm experiencing now?

Dale (30:15.99)
100%. Eric, thank you so much for this conversation. It is fantastic. We appreciate that. And if it meant as much to you as it did to me, our listeners, if you would rate and review the podcast in your favorite podcast app, we would appreciate it. While you're there, if you have not subscribed to the podcast, please do so. That way, it shows up in your feed every time a new episode is released and you can count on more great content like this.

With that, this is the Game Changers podcast, and we wish you a fantastic week.

eric boles (30:50.966)
Yes, yeah, look forward to seeing you next week, my brother.

Dale (30:54.93)
Absolutely. All right. Take care of yourself and

eric boles (30:56.916)
Okay.