COP28 – The Eleventh Hour

In the latest episode of "Planet A", Dan Jørgensen talks with Tomas Anker Christensen, Denmark's Climate Ambassador, amidst the high-stakes atmosphere of the UN Climate Conference COP28 in Dubai. As negotiations enter the eleventh hour, the mood is tense and uncertain, with crucial decisions, not least regarding the future of fossil fuels, hanging in the balance.

This episode delves into the complex and often difficult process of international climate negotiations, providing listeners with an insider's view of the current state of COP28.

Transcript

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[00:00 - 00:09] It is Tuesday afternoon, and actually we should be making this podcast, maybe even from the beach, Thomas, because the cup was supposed to end three hours ago.

[00:09 - 00:20] This is, of course, said with a smile because we all knew that it was probably pretty unlikely that the cup would end exactly at the time when it was supposed to, since that never happens.

[00:20 - 00:26] But fact of the matter is that there is what I think is fair to call a crisis in the negotiations.

[00:26 - 00:38] Yesterday evening, the presidency put forward a text, and that text is by many countries, including my own and the EU, not considered to be ambitious enough.

[00:38 - 00:56] So right now, we've found a quiet meeting room here to give you this status, but of course, spending our time and negotiating with different groups, aligning our demands for what needs to go into the text for us to be able to accept it and support it.

[00:56 - 01:08] And that's what needs to continue the next hours until hopefully we have a new text this evening. But Thomas, let's take the listeners into the negotiation room.

[01:08 - 01:10] What is on the table?

[01:10 - 01:24] What is on the table is the future of the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the 1.5 goal that the High Ambition Coalition managed in the last hours of negotiations in Paris to get into the text.

[01:24 - 01:26] We need to...

[01:26 - 01:44] We need to come out of this COP with a reaffirmation, not only of the goal, but also of the will to implement it and to try to achieve it through all the actions that we undertake on mitigation, but also then to build the adaptation needed for countries to be able to manage a 1.5 degree world.

[01:45 - 01:57] And as many vulnerable countries are saying, beyond 1.5, there's only loss and damage, then we can no longer adapt. And I think that that is really the crux of the matter now. Yes, you're right.

[01:57 - 02:12] And I think probably many, many listeners that don't follow these negotiations closely would think that surely the COP text must already reflect a phase down of fossil fuels that must have been decided long ago.

[02:12 - 02:25] But fact of the matter is that that is not the case. Glasgow two years ago, COP26, was the first time a phase down of coal was mentioned. And until now, we've never had a mentioning of the need to phase out gas and oil.

[02:25 - 02:28] And this is, of course... Of course, what we are fighting for.

[02:28 - 02:45] So the Danish position is that we need a strong text with a high level of ambition that says we need to get rid of oil and gas as sources of energy, and we need to replace them by more renewable energy and by implementing energy efficiency measures.

[02:46 - 02:56] And unfortunately, the text that's put forward now, even though it does mention fossils, also oil and gas, is far from ambitious enough. Yes. It is.

[02:56 - 03:02] And the reason why it's so unambitious is one word. It's the word could.

[03:03 - 03:11] The long list of things that countries need to do to bring down emissions is presented as an optional menu of choices that you can pick from.

[03:11 - 03:22] And where if you don't feel comfortable with what's on the table, you can actually also just do nothing. And that's clearly unacceptable to a wide, wide range of countries.

[03:23 - 03:25] I mean, we had a very...

[03:26 - 03:38] A bust meeting of all ministers late last night going into the early morning hours where there was a very frank conversation about what countries want to see in the final decision.

[03:38 - 03:49] And groups representing altogether almost, or maybe more, depending on how you count, 130 countries spoke out in favor of strong language on this.

[03:49 - 03:55] And if you compare to where we were in last year's negotiations, where we were trying...

[03:56 - 04:02] In the last minute to get fossil fuels into the text, there it was groups and countries, around 80 countries.

[04:02 - 04:10] So now it's far more than half of the member states, the parties to the Paris Agreement, who support this.

[04:10 - 04:21] But the focus on mitigation centered around language on phase out, phase down, or transition away, or reduce fossil fuels.

[04:21 - 04:34] A lot of these different words have been tossed into the discussion. It's only part of what we still need to solve. We also need to find solutions on what you could call, with one term, climate justice.

[04:34 - 04:45] So how does the richer, developed part of the world help better developing countries, both with adaptation to climate change, but also, of course, with the green transformation that they need to go through now?

[04:45 - 04:55] And also, there it's fair to say that the language is not ambitious enough as it stands now. Absolutely. And on adaptation, the one thing that had to be...

[04:55 - 05:04] We decided that this COP is the global goal on adaptation and how to operationalize it, how to become more precise in what it is, and how to take it forward to close the adaptation gap.

[05:05 - 05:22] And we are still actually waiting for an outcome of that negotiation that can be lifted into the overall text, because the overall text needs to have a balance in terms of the detail on mitigation, all these measures on energy transition, versus what we also will do on adaptation.

[05:22 - 05:32] And right now, that balance is not there. And the means to implement them is not decided. So there's still a little way to go to get there.

[05:32 - 05:54] And then the justice part, many countries that want to do the energy transition still feel that there needs to be an acknowledgement that we have different starting points and that developed countries or major economies, rich countries who have a lot of means to do it should take a different pathway than poor and countries that have, for example, no oil production.

[05:55 - 06:05] So there's still a little way to go to get there. And then the justice part, many countries that want to do the energy transition still feel that there needs to be an acknowledgement that we have different starting points and that developed countries or major economies, rich countries who have a lot of means to do it should take a different pathway than poor and countries that have, for example, no oil production. Yeah. So if some people wonder why is it so important that these decisions are made this year? I mean, if we haven't made them for 28 years, why now?

[06:05 - 06:16] Why not just live with a small progress and then postpone the decisions for next year or the year after? And the answer to that question is that this is the year of the global stock take.

[06:16 - 06:24] It was decided in Paris that this is now on COP 28. And we won't get the chance again. I mean, this is...

[06:24 - 06:35] This is now where we have this opportunity to make decisions, especially with regards to what needs to be done before 2030. After 2030, we also need to set the direction here.

[06:35 - 06:49] But the new NDCs, so the Nationally Determined Contributions from different countries that deals with what they will do after 2030, that needs to be adopted and pledged in Brazil at COP 30 two years from now.

[06:49 - 06:56] So one point I want to just make also that is important, and this is something that's actually... It's a positive in the text as it stands now.

[06:56 - 07:02] One of the things where we do think it is showing some promise is with regards to these NDCs, how they are informed.

[07:03 - 07:10] What countries need to pledge in the future depends very much on what we now decide in this GST.

[07:10 - 07:24] So, for instance, if it says, which we hope it will in the end, that there should be global targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, that then needs to be reflected in the NDCs or phase out of FOSSAS, which we hope, that then needs to be reflected in the NDCs.

[07:24 - 07:37] So it's not just words on a piece of paper. It's actually words that will guide real action in the respective countries, the parties of the agreement.

[07:37 - 07:38] Absolutely.

[07:38 - 07:54] And so when we meet in probably, hopefully Brazil in two years, we will have to show that some of the new climate plans that everyone needs to do shows that clear direction of transitioning away from fossil fuels.

[07:54 - 08:05] Into other energy sources and in a drastic reduction of emissions. And on the way to that COP30, we actually have COP29 minister.

[08:05 - 08:12] And yesterday it was decided that COP29 will take place in Azerbaijan. And we will go to Baku next year.

[08:12 - 08:24] And the big topic in Baku, sort of between setting the level of ambition at this COP and looking at the sum of it in two years, is the financing piece. Baku is where we will decide on the next...

[08:24 - 08:33] Quantitative Global Finance Goal, as it's called in UN language. So we need to get back on the floor into the meeting rooms.

[08:34 - 08:43] There's a lot of bad coffee to be had and a lot of discussions to be had. But Thomas, maybe we should just explain to the listeners what that then means in practice.

[08:43 - 08:54] Because right now, basically, we could be just sitting down waiting for the presidency to present their new text. But of course, we're not doing that. We are. We are making...

[08:54 - 09:03] We are making our own suggestions to text by we in my own capacity, that means the European Union.

[09:03 - 09:08] And we, of course, doing this in very close collaboration with our friends in the High Ambition Coalition.

[09:09 - 09:23] And maybe you should just explain to the listeners what the High Ambition Coalition is because it was formed in Paris and was instrumental in getting the Paris Agreement adopted and especially instrumental in getting...

[09:23 - 09:31] the 1.4 billion euro agreement. targets approved. But you were there, you worked for the then Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in

[09:31 - 09:40] Paris. And what actually happened? I was in Ban Ki-moon's team. We did a very detailed strategy.

[09:40 - 09:51] And actually, when Paris arrived, I was chief of staff for the president of the UN General Assembly. But we worked very closely with the UN Secretary General's team, including on the

[09:51 - 10:03] outreach to the most difficult parties in Paris. And what happened in Paris was that the small island states led by Marshall Islands, then Foreign Minister Tony de Brom, started building a

[10:03 - 10:14] coalition with, well, the small islands, Latin American countries, and they reached out to some Europeans. And this group kept growing. There was no formal membership, but it was a coalition.

[10:14 - 10:21] And in the end, it became so big that even the U.S. had to join. And where U.S. and China had had an agreement.

[10:21 - 10:30] On two degrees leading into Paris, this coalition had its rallying call 1.5. In order for the

[10:30 - 10:36] islands, the small islands, to be able to survive and not to be basically disappearing from the

[10:36 - 10:49] face of the earth, those that are coral atoll based, 1.5 would be the absolute limit to global warming that they could sustain. And that became the rallying call in the last hours of Paris. And

[10:49 - 10:58] in the end, 1.5. 1.5 made it into the text. Tony de Brom has died in the meantime, but his niece, Tina Stege, is now

[10:58 - 11:05] leading as the lead negotiator for the Marshall Islands, the coalition with her minister, Minister

[11:05 - 11:17] Silk, from the Marshall Islands. And they are convening the group very often. I think you have met with them three times in the last 12 hours. And we also met as a group with the Secretary

[11:17 - 11:27] General earlier today. And after that, we had... We had a small press conference where the different members were able to state their opinions, which is

[11:27 - 11:38] also part of this game, so to speak. I don't like to call it a game, but in a way, it sometimes almost is because it's not only what goes on in the negotiation rooms that are important. It's also

[11:38 - 11:50] which tone is being set in the media and by NGOs and others. So therefore, it's important that all voices are heard. And I think especially it's important that the countries...

[11:51 - 12:01] That are hit the hardest by climate change have a voice. So it's not only about aligning our opinions and following a common strategy on getting to the goal and the outcome that

[12:01 - 12:11] we want. It's also about helping countries that deserve a voice getting that voice. I want to just, in the end of our podcast here, Thomas, say a few words about the presidency,

[12:11 - 12:21] because I think that, in my opinion, they are working hard. They are being an honest broker. And it's very easy when...

[12:21 - 12:32] When you criticize a text for other people, maybe to think that that is also a criticism of the presidency. But I don't think we have reasons for that.

[12:32 - 12:38] I think, on the contrary, that we have a transparent and inclusive presidency that are doing their best.

[12:38 - 12:48] And also, it's worth mentioning that yesterday, when they put forward the text, which they see as a possible compromise between very opposing opinions,

[12:48 - 12:56] what they said was not, so this is the text, take it or leave it. They said, okay, so this is the basis for further deliberations and further negotiations.

[12:56 - 13:04] And now they're reflecting on the feedback that they got from the heads of delegation meeting last night.

[13:04 - 13:17] And, of course, are also leading negotiations with the different parties and groups of countries. And that will then hopefully lead to a new text this evening. Yes, or tomorrow morning. Yeah, who knows.

[13:17 - 13:25] Let's see. We'll see how long it takes. It sounds as if they're taking their time now to consult with many different groups,

[13:25 - 13:31] so that hopefully the next iteration of the text will be, if not the final text, then very, very close.

[13:31 - 13:40] A kind of text where you can maybe need to change a few words and then it's a final outcome. This will then be the very final comment.

[13:40 - 13:51] I just want to say to any listeners that think, well, how can this be so difficult? I mean, we're talking about the future of the planet. Surely. It must be quite easy to agree on that we need to save it.

[13:52 - 14:00] But think about your own family or group of friends if you want to go to the cinema or restaurant and agree on what to eat or which movie to see. It's not easy.

[14:00 - 14:05] Now, obviously, the future of the planet is a little bit more important than whether or not to eat pizza or steak.

[14:05 - 14:17] But it's just to remind people that this is almost 200 countries agreeing on something so important with such big ramifications for their own nation's economy.

[14:18 - 14:29] And I think it's a good thing that we're talking about the future of the planet, the energy supply, well-being of people, and the future of the same countries with regards to possible effects from climate change.

[14:30 - 14:39] Obviously, this is not easy. Obviously, this is extremely hard. We don't just negotiate and then find a result and then vote and then whatever can get a majority is law.

[14:39 - 14:48] That's how you make it normally when you make compromises in a parliament and in a democracy. But this is done by consensus.

[14:48 - 15:05] So when thinking about it like that, maybe it's a little bit easier to understand why it is that this is complicated, why it is that the negotiations are as long as they are, and maybe also why we should be appreciative of when we then actually sometimes succeed in having ambitious results.

[15:05 - 15:18] And I very much hope that we will be able in a few days, Thomas, to make a new podcast where we celebrate a great result. Do you think, do you think, still think that's possible? I definitely think we will be home by Christmas.

[15:19 - 15:31] OK, thank you all for listening. What are the status of the negotiations at COP28 in Dubai? My name is Dan Jorgensen.

[15:31 - 15:39] I am Minister for Global Climate Policy from Denmark, and I'm here with the Danish climate ambassador, Thomas Anker Christensen.

[15:39 - 15:47] And we will try and take you behind the scenes and give you a status of where we are in the negotiations and where we're going from here.