Breakaway - Investing & Finance

Government Policy, Kamala, Trump, Tesla, Markets

Sean Hathaway Episode 65

Life updates:

  • 20 years of marriage!! 
  • Cost Rica

Why talk about Politics and government? 

  • Has a profound effect on business.
    • U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
      • Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.

“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government-- in pursuit of good intentions tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the cost come in inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Government should be a referee, not an active player.”

― Milton Friedman

Example: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to "connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade."

  • Not one single household connected. 
  • Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious. 
  • Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA's BEAD proposal "requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as 'individuals with past criminal records' and 'justice-impacted […] participants.'"
  • Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCC

Ben and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.  

  • Technology, Economy and Military. 
  • For example:
    • Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.
    • Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!
    • Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion. 

Trump vs. Kamala?

Kamala policies>

  • Trump:
    • Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech. 
    • Reasonable border policy. 
    • No more forever wars. 
    • Supports independent energy. 
    • Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security. 


Tesla

  • AI, Robotics and Energy. 
    • Real-world AI. Explain. Not LLM
    • Cars and Optimus. 
    • Battery and Solar manufacturing. 

Stocks and Economy

  • Market Correction.
    • On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%: 
  • CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27. 

Recommendations.

  • All In podcast with Trump. 
  • Rogan and Jordan Peterson
  • Andreesen Horowitz. 
  • Presumed Innocent. - Apple
  • Your Honor - Netflix (airplane qualification)
  • Land of Bad - Netflix (airplane)