Episode 87: Economic Forecasting is a Joke

"Inflation will be with us for years to come." "You can’t lower inflation without raising unemployment." "Supply chain disruptions will cause a recession." These are some of the fables told in recent years by economic forecasters.  Their job is to use empirical methods to explain why certain things happen in the economy but they’re notoriously bad at it, their predictions no more reliable than that of a palm reader.  Why is this so?  Joe and Mark assess their record, offering some explanations for why it’s so terrible, and consider how “the dismal science” might step up its game. (Recorded March 22, 2024.)