4.10.23 Funded Mortgage Volume; Curinos' John Sayre on Production Trends and Data; Fed Rate Hike Predictions

Today's podcast is brought to you by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and award-winning developer of mobile-first technology for the modern mortgage lender.

Nexus Closing makes closings a breeze. Automatic status updates and instant collaboration tools help borrowers confidently navigate the closing process. And features that support eSign, eDisclosures, and eClosings increase productivity and margins.

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Transcript

I just looked at the balance of my checking account: $LMAO.00. Here’s a tip of the day to keep your bank account from going to $0 with this non-mortgage information from the FBI: Don't use free public phone charging stations in airports, hotels, and shopping centers. And be careful any time you receive a phone call from a supposed law enforcement official. For some mortgage information, Curinos calculated that March 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 53 percent YoY and increased 46 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in March was 6.36 percent, 19bps higher than February and 238bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures, and the data is examined further here.) Today’s podcast can be found here and is sponsored by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and award-winning developer of mobile-first technology for the modern mortgage lender. Nexus Closing delights homebuyers with a convenient, single sign-on experience that makes it possible to close on a loan from anywhere. Hear an interview with Curinos’ John Sayre on first quarter benchmarking data and production trends.

Employment & promotions; IMB wanted

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A Bank Owned National Mortgage Lender Looking to Acquire IMB: A leading privately-owned national mortgage lender is seeking to acquire a productive IMB. With multiple retail branches nationwide, this lender services over 500,000 loans and is licensed in every geographic region nationwide. The company also retains nearly 100 percent of servicing rights on Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie Mae mortgages and offers a top lending suite of tools and highly efficient loan manufacturing process. The marketing team is flexible and will support any transition, large or small. If growth and opportunity is what you are looking for within your existing organization and you are entertaining a potential move, a conversation with this lender could be the answer for your team’s future! For a confidential conversation, please call Rory at 586-484-0500.

“Are you seeking a career with a stable and financially secure Non-QM Wholesale and Non-Delegated Correspondent company? Take a look at Logan Finance. With a complete suite of Non-QM products, including DSCR, Bank Statement, Mixed-Use, 1099, P&L, Non-Warrantable Condo, Foreign National Loans, and more, we specialize in helping broker and banker partners find loan solutions for borrowers who do not meet traditional lending requirements. We pride ourselves on our stability and financial security and provide our employees with the resources they need to thrive in their careers. With our comprehensive training programs, ongoing support, and competitive compensation packages, you can be confident that you are joining a company that values its employees and is committed to their success. Call Todd Lautzenheiser at 317-721-9941 or visit Logan Wholesale and Logan Correspondent today and find out why we've grown over 3,000 percent YoY.”

Supreme Lending has appointed two mortgage industry veterans to its Executive Leadership Team. Candice McNaught recently made the move to Supreme’s Corporate office as Senior Vice President of National Sales. Candice previously led one of Supreme’s top five branches (a team averaging $330 million in annual production) as a Branch Manager. Prior to this, she served as a Director of Marketing for Supreme for more than a decade. Candice’s sales management and marketing expertise will play a pivotal role in designing marketing strategy, leading product developing, and overseeing branch production and expenditures. Baiju Thakkar brings more than 25 years of IT leadership experience to his new role as Supreme’s Chief Information Officer. Before joining Supreme, Baiju led strategic technology development initiatives at two nationwide mortgage companies, with a focus on building innovative teams and solutions. Baiju is passionate about delivering meaningful change through effective partnerships to ensure security, quality, and stability. If you're interested in joining the Supreme Team, contact Director of National Recruiting Ryan Baxter or find Supreme Lending on LinkedIn.

FHA has one Appraiser vacancy to review and manage appraisals assigned, resolve valuation issues involving common problems, and provide guidance to appraisers, lenders, home buyers, builders, real estate agents and the general public.

And the FHA has one vacancy in Santa Ana, CA for a Management and Program Analyst to perform analysis and advisory assignments related to the effectiveness of programs and or the efficiency of the management of operations. Identify problems, review production for compliance. Conduct detailed analyses of data, work processes, methods, and procedures.

Lender and broker services, programs, & software

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There are many hidden gems among your contacts, and Surefire℠ CRM and Mortgage Marketing Engine by Black Knight is the right tool for mining them. Surefire’s award-winning content library and automated marketing blueprints empower mortgage professionals to attract new borrowers, win clients for life, and earn repeat and referral business. To help you turbocharge your marketing strategy, Surefire has developed a quick guide outlining how lenders can maximize the value of consumer and real estate agent relationships with a mortgage-specific customer relationship management (CRM) platform. Download the free guide and find the diamonds in your database!

You know what numbers you did in February. But do you know what your competition did? And how do you compare? Now’s your chance to find out with MMI’s monthly Mortgage Industry Benchmarks newsletter, which lets lenders and LOs compare their recent performance to their peers via production-based tiers. Headlining this month’s newsletter is the 3.2 percent month-over-month growth for lenders in MMI’s Prime Tier ($5B+ production/year). In fact, all three of MMI’s lender tiers showed month-over-month growth in February! But let’s take a sneak peek at the Prime Tier. Lenders in the Prime Tier averaged $618.4M in production, which included 45 percent purchase transactions. What else did the Prime lenders do? What about the other tiers? Sign up for MMI’s monthly newsletter for to find out and for more insights like these!

“Our Newrez Correspondent Regional Sales Managers are hitting the road and traveling coast to coast this Spring. You can catch Tom Winston in San Antonio April 30-May 2 at the TMBA Annual Conference, Alex Weems, Tom Van Auken, Tony Petronio, Chris Nobile and Rob Niess in Atlantic City May 2-4 at the New Jersey MBA Conference, Patty Devita and Tom Van Auken in Maryland May 8-10 at the Mid Atlantic Regional Conference, and wrapping up in the Big Apple with our entire sales team May 21-23 at the National Secondary Conference. See in-person why our Correspondent division is one of the best in the industry! Apply now or contact us to learn more.”

Ability-to-pay fintech FormFree is revolutionizing how financial services professionals leverage consumer-permissioned data by bringing its groundbreaking Passport and RIKI products to new channels. FormFree most recently broke into the consumer finance field by partnering with GetAugie to streamline the identity verification process necessary to obtain an Augie Card, which allows consumers to build their credit score by paying their recurring monthly bills. And FormFree’s recent integration with IndiSoft is empowering housing counselors to provide better financial advice by allowing consumers to share their complete Financial DNA via a secure Passport token. Both partnerships are valuable tools for turning applicants into viable customers at a time when lenders can’t afford to leave any stones unturned. Ask the FormFree team how RIKI and Passport can put your customers back in control of their own self-sovereign financial identity!

To efficiently manage mortgage servicing quality, QC modernization is critical. Are You Ready for Indecomm’s Mortgage Quality Control 4.0? If your mortgage servicing QC partner is still relying exclusively on manual audit skills and reporting, Indecomm offers you a new approach, one that pairs modern QC technology with a meticulous and experienced mortgage servicing QC team. Indecomm’s mortgage QC 4.0 uses AuditGenius technology to capture more errors and increase audit productivity by 40 percent. Plus, Indecomm’s digitally enabled QC services comes with a robust, interactive, customizable QC reporting module that gives you critical insights into defect and risk trends related to your loans, portfolios, teams, and operations, empowering you to take fast, informed corrective action. If you are a mortgage servicer in need of modern, experienced QC services, reach out to Kevin Quinn. Pssst! We also offer next-gen QC for pre-fun, post-close, MI reviews, due diligence and more. Ask us!

Don’t miss your change to sign up for The StorySeller Virtual Summit on April 19 with business building sessions from eight speakers including master FBI negotiator Chris Voss: How to Uncover Hidden Opportunities in Life and Business, and NAR chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun: How to Overcome Objections About Today's Housing Market. The event is hosted by Momentifi CEO, Gibran Nicholas who has 23 years of experience as a leader in the housing industry with over 10,000 graduates of his courses and certification programs. The theme of the event is How to Grow an Epic Business and Find More Meaning in Your Work. Registration is free, but you can also sign up for a VIP All-Access pass that includes Momentifi's personally branded homebuyer education tools and other member benefits. This is a great way to kick off the Spring Home Buying Season. Click here to learn more or sign up.

Mother Nature bats last

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The U.S. is prone to tornadoes, earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, storms, volcanoes, and fires. FEMA is the official source of disaster declarations. And when FEMA publishes them, lender and investor policies and procedures are triggered. From hurricanes to forest fires, the environmental impacts of climate change are becoming more pressing with each passing year. 90 percent of natural disasters involve some degree of flooding. Flood damage has cost Americans over $50 billion throughout the last decade.

Tennessee Tornadoes – FEMA federal disaster declaration DR-4701-TN. California Flooding – FEMA declared federal disaster DR-4699-CA. Arkansas Tornadoes - FEMA federal disaster declaration DR-4698-AK.

CliftonLarsonAllen LLP points out that, “In late February, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced that taxpayers in most of California (all but seven counties) and for parts of Alabama and Georgia would have until October 16, 2023 to file their individual and business tax returns and to make certain tax payments.”

A recent Bulletin released by USDA Rural Development announced the availability of $55.7 million in grant funding through the new Rural Disaster Home Repair Grant Program. Through this program, rural homeowners may apply to receive grants of up to $40,675 to repair their homes damaged by a Calendar Year (CY) 2022 Presidentially declared disaster.

On 3/26/2023, with DR-4697, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to 4 Mississippi counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes from 3/24/2023 to 3/25/2023. See AmeriHome Mortgage announcement 20230307-CL for inspection requirements.

On 3/30/2023, with Amendment No. 1 to DR-4697, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance for 2 Mississippi additional Mississippi counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes from 3/24/2023 to 3/25/2023. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20230311-CL announcement for inspection requirements.

On 4/7/2023, with DR-4701, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to 10 counties in Tennessee affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes from 3/31/2023, to 4/1/2023. AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20230404-CL for inspection requirements.

On 4/3/2023, with DR-4699, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance for 7 counties in California affected by flooding, landslides, and mudslides from 2/21/2023, and continuing. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20230402-CL for inspection requirements.

On 4/2/2023, with DR-4698, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to 3 Arkansas counties; Cross, Lonoke, and Pulaski. AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20230401-CL for inspection requirements.

Capital markets

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We learned on Friday that non-farm employment rose 236k in March, which was in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate eased from 3.57 percent to 3.50 percent even as the labor force increased. On the whole, the March jobs report continued to show the kind of job and wage growth that would justify another rate hike by the FOMC, but May’s FOMC meeting will occur prior to April’s jobs report. On the whole, the March payrolls report is likely not quite weak enough to stop the Fed from hiking 25 basis points at the May 3 FOMC meeting, and markets are now pricing in roughly a three-in-four probability of another 25 basis points hike in May.

Other employment data has shown more deterioration: Job openings fell to 9.9 million in March and are down more than 1.3 million over the past couple of months as employers have adjusted hiring plans. Additionally, layoff announcements for the first quarter of the year were the highest since 2009. Jobless claims have also begun to trend higher. Both the manufacturing and services ISM PMI indexes fell in March, suggesting cooling business conditions.

This week’s data includes some of the first-tier variety which could factor into the Fed thinking for the May 3 FOMC decision including the latest U.S. monthly inflation figures in the form of the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, PPI (Producer Price Index) on Thursday, with retail sales, industrial production / capacity utilization and Michigan sentiment all on Friday. The U.S Treasury will conduct the $90 billion mini-Refunding from tomorrow through Thursday, while the minutes from the March 22 FOMC decision will be released Wednesday afternoon.

With many markets still closed globally, today should be another relatively quiet session. The U.S. calendar kicks off later this morning with wholesale inventories / sales for February, followed by March employment trends, and remarks from New York Fed President Williams. As you savor your Cadbury eggs, we begin the week with Agency MBS prices are a few 32nds better from Friday and the 10-year yielding 3.35, down from Friday’s 3.38. (The 2-year is at 3.93.)

We had to have the garage door repaired.

The repairman told us that one of our problems was that we did not have a “large” enough motor on the opener. I thought for a minute and said that we had the largest one made at that time, a ½ horsepower.

He shook his head and said, “You need ¼ horsepower.”

I responded that ½ was larger than ¼ and he said, “No, it’s not. Four is larger than two.”

We haven’t used that repairman since.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you're interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. “A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned” is the current blog. The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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