Al Ahly Pharos

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Pre-Trading Thoughts

February 06, 2024 • Al Ahly Pharos

*Key news articles for today*

What are the key conclusions from the different exchange rate scenarios that the market can possibly think of and their impact on FVs?

ORHD, EKHOA, AMOC, ESRS, ORAS, SUGR, and SWDY's current market prices do not reflect the expected movements in the exchange rate as much as other stocks have demonstrated. They still possess an upside from the current prices, even if we are talking about an exchange rate of EGP40-45/USD in 2024.
MFPC, EGCH, EGAL, ALCN, DSCW, and ABUK are overplayed at current prices.
Banks still offer a great opportunity, with a high focus on ADIB, QNBA, and HDBK.
ORHD and PHDC are more attractive than their peers at current prices.

Net International Reserves were almost flat in January at USD35.25 billion compared to USD35.22 billion in December.

Egypt's trade deficit increased by 5% YoY during November 2023, recording USD3.07 billion, compared to USD2.92 billion for the same month of the previous year. This is due to the decline in exports by 20.6% last November, reaching USD3.21 billion.

OECD has revised upwards its 2024 world growth forecast to 2.9% from November’s 2.7% forecast.

The Central Bank of Egypt has sold USD1 billion of USD-denominated one-year t-bills at an average yield of 5.149%.

Regarding news on TMGH (FV: EGP42.95, OW) potentially acquiring 5,540 feddans on the North Coast, the company disclosed that the project is among many projects the company is studying.

Regarding HELI's (FV: EGP18.84, OW) co-development agreement on 865 feddans in New Heliopolis with Middle East for Investment and Touristic Development, HELI is to receive EGP150.0 million in addition to EGP130.0 million within two weeks upon submitting the land to Middle East for Investment and Touristic Development. There is also a possibility that the co-development could cover an additional 1,070 feddans in New Heliopolis.

HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) Board approved offering 84 residential units in New Heliopolis and Sheraton for sale through auction. The Board also preliminarily approved an updated protocol agreement with the Holding Company for Cotton, Spinning, and Weaving regarding purchasing its 52k sqm land plot in Mansoura after conducting a final valuation of the land plot.

ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) reduced its rebar price by EGP5,360/ton to EGP49,920/ton as of yesterday, 5 February 2024, on relatively stronger local currency.

ETEL and Hungarian telecom company 4iG have formed a JV to build a subsea cable between Albania and Egypt. The move follows an MoU for the same project inked by the two parties in October.

AMIC released its report for December 2023, showing the highest personal cars monthly sales for 2023 with 8.7 thousand units, also the highest since August 2022. December sales came 5.8% higher MoM and 51.6% higher YoY. FY23 sales reached 69.2 thousand units, with a YoY decline of 48%.Technical