Ep. 15 | September 2022 Transportation Market Update: How Freight Movement Changes and How to Plan Throughout September

September is a pivotal month in many respects. The seasons shift from summer to fall and shorts are swapped for long pants as the warmth of longer days slowly dims.

For American families, nights spent at the ballpark watching children live out their Little League dreams, come to a close. Baseball cleats are exchanged for shin guards, the diamond for a grassy field. 

That said, domestic life isn’t the only thing that changes in September. No, as fantasy football teams are drafted and homemade chili recipes dusted off, shippers around our country will feel September’s impact too, but in a different way. 

You see, specific patterns have emerged in the trucking industry during September. In this episode of Beyond The Road, we’ll go over these patterns, their effect on your supply chain, and what you can do to tackle September head-on this year.

Information Covered In This Episode:

• What Happens in The Transportation Industry During September?
• What Impacts The Dry Van Freight Market in September
• What Happens in The Open-Deck Freight Market During September?
• What To Know About The Impact of Midwest Harvest Season
• Where Are Rates Headed?
• How Does Peak Retail Season Impact Nationwide Freight Movement?
• How Back-To-School Season Impacts Transportation
• Open-Deck Freight Changes
• How to Plan For Labor Day on Sep. 5
• September Planning Tips For Shippers
• Is September 2022 a Good Time for Contracts?

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Transcript

Eli: 0:00

September is a pivotal month in many respects. The seasons shift from summer to fall in shorts are swapped for long pants as the warmth of longer days slowly dims for American families nights that were spent at the ballpark. Watching children live out those little league dreams come to a close. Baseball cleats are exchanged for shin guards, the diamond for a grassy field. That said domestic life isn't the only thing that changes in September, as fantasy football teams are drafted and homemade chili recipes dusted off shippers around our country will feel September's impact too. But in a different way. certain patterns have emerged in the trucking industry during September. In this episode of beyond the road, we'll go over these patterns the effect they'll have on your supply chain and what you can do to tackle September head on this year. Stick around. Hello, and welcome to another episode of beyond the road, the transportation industry podcast where we talk all things transportation and logistics back with another monthly update. These have been kind of a popular among our listeners it feels like and Josh always does a good job. So Josh rRvers is back again Sales Team Manager with ATS logistics. Josh, thanks for coming back.

Josh: 1:36

Thank you. Thank you for setting such high expectations. putting the pressure on I didn't know that part was comming.

Eli: 1:41

Yeah, we did July and we did August and now we're into September. We are in the first month of fall.

Josh: 1:46

Yes.

Eli: 1:46

Looking at the transportation industry, the trucking industry as a whole. .

Josh: 1:49

Football season.

Eli: 1:50

Yep. Football season's coming . . . Get your fantasy football team drafted yet?

Josh: 1:53

No. Our draft is It's Labor Day. And I want to slap whoever set it. Set it for Labor Day.

Eli: 1:59

Yeah, I got mine on Saturday evening this Saturday.

Josh: 2:02

So yeah, we tried to push it back as late as we can. I was a I worked at a sports bar temporarily when I was a sales rep. I would work there in the evening time. And I worked there during a draft party. And I watched a gentleman draft Andrew Luck. Roughly 10 minutes before the announcement came on the TV that he had retired. We try to push them as late as we can now after seeing that.

Eli: 2:25

Yeah, right. Yeah. So you avoid the injuries and stuff.

Josh: 2:27

Exactly.

Eli: 2:28

From a transportation perspective. . .

Josh: 2:30

Yes.

Eli: 2:31

Take Travis Kelce if you have the opportunity.

Josh: 2:33

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

Eli: 2:35

From a transportation perspective, what goes on in September? What are we thinking about? What do we typically see

Josh: 2:40

Um, good question. As always, we want to know what's there? coming each month, and I do my best to try and keep you guys informed. So I spoke with Amanda Garner, and Jerry Ramirez are two operations managers, two of our operations managers, and kind of poke their brain a little bit and put their experiences in tandem with mine. They've been doing it for a little bit longer than me, I've, I've got some experience, but I like to, I like to get the experience from the other side of the row as to. So what we can expect in September. So starting from a driving perspective, September is when you really start harvest season. So everybody knows about beet harvest, but there's also potatoes, there's also sugars, and a lot of that happens in the Midwest and in areas where it might not be otherwise desirable to go. So for example, Idaho, the Dakotas, Minnesota, the Midwest, for dry van freight is going to be the spot to be, you're gonna see a lot of a lot of drivers wanting to get into the Midwest and taking pretty affordable rates to get into the Midwest. And they're going to be taking premiums to come out of the Midwest, they won't necessarily be hauling harvest product, but because the demand for trucks for harvest is so high in those areas, they're going to want to be there because they know capacity will be so low and demand will be so high that they can get good rates no matter what they're hauling. And that's that's just supply and demand that you see it in the southeast in Florida, Georgia, during produce season, which we talked about in our very first podcast regarding monthly updates together and it's the same thing except it's reversed now it's in the north. So you'll see a lot of a lot of demand heading into the Midwest and then to the contrary, other areas cooled down quite a bit. So drive and markets in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, the Southeast Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, they cool down guys aren't gonna want to go there as much because there's not a whole lot coming out anymore. So you're gonna see certain companies gearing up for the for the fourth quarter for sorry for the for the tail end of the year here where a lot of imports for retail season are going to be coming in. So that's a lot of high value freight, which means it's going to pay really well because of the cargo value associated with it. So guys, we're going to start thinking about trying to position some units in those areas on the West Coast. California won't be as bad yeah to go into. It's but gas prices still play a factor, right? So they're lower than what they were thank God. But they're still it's still expensive a tank of gas is still expensive. We can we can say it as it is just because it's cheaper than what it was doesn't mean it's good, right? Bad is better than worse. So it's still gonna be a difficult difficulty getting guys into California and Oregon and Washington because of the gas prices but they have calmed down somewhat, so it won't be as bad. The the general consensus with Van freight right now is capacity is lightening up. So we have a lot more available trucks. And rates are I wouldn't say nosedive because that they are lower Yes. And they are falling, we're falling pretty steeply, but it's starting to, to kind of, you know, pull up not increased, but it's starting to slow down. Whereas before, I mean, we saw you know, 25% drop in a matter of a couple of weeks. And you're not seeing that kind of that kind of drop anymore. So that's kind of the drive and market in a nutshell. Like I said, there's gonna be a lot of availability, a lot of capacity, a semblance of normalcy. Yeah, if, if I dare say it, customers are doing RFQs. Again, they're wanting annual rates. Again, we're noticing some of our customers are asking for rates for shipments to hold true for three to four months now. Particularly our sugar customers are asking for rates to hold for for several months in advance. Now, in some of our building products, manufacturers that we work with, are asking for or asking about interest in RFQs. So obviously, most of the money tends to be in the spot market for drivers, if they can get spot rates, they kind of dictate the rates, and they kind of they prefer that you definitely see higher rates and a spot market rate most of the time.

Eli: 6:45

The only exception being the chaos that was 2021, 2020, 2022, where spot markets would get you, you know, massive, massive increases. And now you can get spot rates from contract rates that are massive decreases. So this is kind of the only time that that happens. I think the biggest thing that I would like customers to take into account with it when it comes to drive. And freight is actually just freight in general. Now that I think about it, we sat in on a meeting with some of the some of the talking heads from DAT. And it's one of the pricing tools that we use. And they were talking about upcoming RFQs. And one of the points that they mentioned that I that I actually found pretty interesting is through all this chaos, that was 2020, 2021 and 2022. Some of the larger trucking companies lost units, but the number of owner operators has increased. So we're dealing with a lot more independent truck drivers. Yeah. And I didn't get a chance to ask him what that does for rates. And I'm not a driver, so I can't really speak to it. But I would be interested to sit down with somebody and have a conversation with them to see how that affects pricing from an owner operator standpoint, to a company standpoint, owner operators from from my understanding and from my experience tend to value their time a little bit more.

Josh: 8:00

And they tend to be because they are the company. So there's no company policy in place as far as detention rates, you know, rate per mile fuel surcharge. They're gonna ask for what they feel they're worth. And I don't say fault them. I don't think I don't know if it'll necessarily increase rates my gut says it does. But again, it's something that just just to be aware of, I don't have the answer to what that does to rates yet. But it is something honestly, I'd like to sit down and talk with you about it once I get the answer and we throw another podcast out there and keep people informed. So changing gears a little bit to the open deck flatbed side of things. I spoke with Jerry and for my experience, September's end of quarter. So you're gonna see a real hard push to get product out for end of quarter you'll see it on the drive and side as well. But for the flatbed side, what you're gonna see is a lot of construction products are going to start wrapping up construction projects, imports for retail season. So a lot of containers, you're gonna see a massive push to get all that done before the fall and winter hit. So now is the time to really get that wrapped up because October, October, November. I mean, anybody who lives in the Midwest can tell you October November, it's not beneficial to still be doing construction or putting up buildings. In October and November. It's typically pretty wet pretty cold. It can freeze everybody who was alive in Minnesota in 1991 loves to tell you about the blizzard that came rolling through on Halloween of 1991 and ruined everything. It's the old timers man I tell you every time I talked to somebody who was old enough to speak during 1991 A man let me tell you I remember I had my costume on and eight feet of snow cones okay, but that's that's the push you're gonna see from the flatbed side. Other than that, it's it's pretty standard and flatbed rates are kind of hanging in the balance right now while hanging in the balance isn't the right term there. It's it's stable. I kind of know what It's still expensive. I'm not gonna lie to people. It's still I'm getting. expensive to move open-deck freight but I'm confident in my pricing for once, it feels like you know, I mean before we would price something, and we have a reputation of standing by our rates right that's that's how ATS kind of made a name like we don't go knocking on doors asking for more money if we miss-quote something. So you quote something and then it was just kind of a cross your fingers and pray that this rate holds for the next three days while we find this truck. And sometimes you'd wind up upside down now i I'm pretty confident when I give somebody a rate, I can tell them, hey, this is good for a week, two weeks, and see where it goes. So that's the that's the gist of it. Yeah, you can break it down into specifics and Market to Market. But those are the those are the key things that customers should be aware of.

Eli: 10:38

Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about that harvest season in the Midwest.

Josh: 10:41

Absolutely.

Eli: 10:42

So when we're thinking about okay, so harvest season is going to start, start, start picking up a little bit, we're gonna we're gonna need a lot where there's going to be a higher volume of loads, right, which, which just in turn, makes trucking companies turn their heads that way, right.

Josh: 10:56

Yeah, absolutely.

Eli: 10:57

I gotta get my drivers into there maybe like the higher volume opens up doors opportunity for them. Right service, you know, has they have greater opportunity to get their drivers in there? And then keep them moving?

Josh: 11:07

Yeah, absolutely. It's, it's the same thing as anything. You know, if you're, if you're a coffee shop, and you're having, you know, you opened a store in Minneapolis, you opened a store in St. Claude, you opened a store in Duluth, and you're absolutely killing it in Minneapolis, and you're selling coffee left and right, you're going to put a lot of emphasis on Minneapolis and try and sell more coffee in Minneapolis because people are buying it. So it's the same thing with freight.

Eli: 11:30

Yeah. And carriers are always in carriers and transportation providers are always looking at these load to truck ratios. Yeah, absolutely. And the breakdown of how many loads are there? How many trucks are in the area? What's the volume of freight, what's our opportunity to get our trucks absolutely are coming out going in, and that's going to impact their pricing. So this, or at this time of year, you typically see those dry van rates, a little bit more relaxed going into harvest areas.

Josh: 11:52

Yeah. And like I said, it's gonna be kind of difficult to gauge, just what exactly to expect from a harvest season, because like I said, rates have been rapidly decreasing. It's kind of slowed down a little bit. But for the past few months, we've been watching dry van rates just fall and fall and fall and fall and fall. And we were almost back to the rmdir sheet shows us almost back to 2019 levels. And that's that's crazy, even the past two years. I mean, you can watch the spikes in the graph. And it's it looks like it's never going to come back down. And it's been in such a such a steep decline the past few months. We're almost there. So, but with the demand that a harvest season brings, do those rates go? Right back up? My gut says no, because the demand for it was a combination of things. It was a combination of lack of drivers in the market, which there's always not enough truck drivers. And the high demand of freight to move was what caused that massive spike in the MDI. I don't think the harvest season is going to generate enough demand to soak up that much capacity to cause rates to go back to like 2021 level, I just don't see it, I think they'll get more expensive than what they are now for sure. I just don't see them. Going that hard. In the opposite direction, it's hard to pull out of a freefall and then immediately jump on a rocket ship straight back up when it comes to the MDI. So yeah, I think we've got a little bit I'm interested to see what happens. I'll put it that way. I'm very interested to see what this does from from an economics and from like a, just from like a logistical, being a charts and graphs kind of guy. I want to see what it does. And that's, that's interesting to me. I want to see what happens with that.

Eli: 13:32

Yeah. What do you think we can attribute that, that that drop off or that fall off to, you know, for a year, two or three years there, we had that hockey stick kind of curve and spa prices in vans and open deck. And that was obviously attributed to Yeah, the increased demand, the lower the, you know, trucks, shortages, maintenance costs going up, insurance prices going up, fuel prices rising, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, and now you say okay, in the last month or so, we've seen a significant drop offs. Would you say last quarter, maybe? Yeah, I think last quarter is what is like, what is it? So it's fuel prices coming down? It's maybe consumer spending dropping off?

Josh: 14:08

Yeah. So we've had we've had the longest consecutive days have fuel price decline since 2005. Right, that plays a factor in it for sure. We've also had and nobody wants to say the R word right recession, it's taboo. And other people scream from the mountaintops that we're in one it's happening. I'm not an economist. I'm not going to tell you I don't have a degree in in economics. I didn't even go to college. So I am the last guy you want to ask about it. But there is uncertainty in the market. I think everybody can can agree to that. Right? And that kind of creates the price decline that you see here. It's what happened when COVID first happened. Those first probably two months to three months of COVID rates fell through the floor. Guys, we're just looking for gas money to get home because it was such an uncertain market and an uncertain economy, nobody knew what was going to happen. Nobody was buying anything. Because nobody wanted, everybody wanted to hang on to their money, save it, we might need it, save it, we might need it. And that's kind of what's happening right now is it's a little uncertain, people are a little uneasy, they're less, they're less willy nilly with their cash or are willing to create such a demand that the supply is required. So right now, the supply is meeting the demand. And people are less apt to go out and purchase things. So we don't need more of these things. So there's no need to move said things no need to move said things. We don't need the driver to move said things. Drivers need to find something to move, the rates go down. It's you know, I'm kind of going on a tangent here. But that's kind of the snowball effect of it.

Eli: 15:47

I think that's that's probably the biggest factor is the uncertainty in the market? I'm not going to call it a recession, because I don't know. Is it maybe sure somebody smarter than me? And probably say, Yes, somebody smarter than me and probably say, No, it all depends on what you Google. So how large of a nationwide impact does this uptick into the peak retail season have on you know, because the drive and markets are driven by consumer spending? I know that a lot of that like getting those products in place for retail season and the holiday season starts, I think, in September or pretty close to it.

Josh: 16:24

Yeah, most people are going to do their Christmas shopping starting next month into October. And then you're always gonna have people like me like December 23, like, oh, yeah, I should probably run to target, you know, get the nephew a gift or something. But it's, it's most of your most of the product is going to start being put on the shelves starting next month into October into November. And it's just going to be a restocking game at that point. And it's a really good question. Because like I said, I just mentioned an uncertainty in the market. What is that going to do to retail season? And that is? I honestly think we could have a whole podcast on that by itself. It's there's there's so many layers to that conversation. And it's more of an economics question than a logistics question. Right? Because, you know, then you want to break down market confidence factors into consumer spending, and you know, which products are people still confident in buying? And which product are which products are people still consuming? And you know, what's the cost to move those the values of of the commodity that you're moving there, there's a lot to that a lot more than than we have time for and a lot more than I know about? I think, from a nationwide perspective, what the retail season, from a logistical standpoint, what affected people is, it's really going to affect your ports, because everything gets shipped in to get shipped out to be put on the shelves, large hubs, cities with manufacturing facilities or distribution centers are going to be very hot too, because the product goes to these distribution centers, and then from there, it is dispersed to the locations that it needs to go to. So those are going to be the real hot spots, and they're all over the country. So really, it can create quite a bit of deman country wide.

Eli: 18:08

The cold places are obviously still the cold places, you know, Montana is just you know, it's it's never good for freight, freight, so goes to Montana, freight still comes out of Montana, but not nearly in the level that it does anywhere else. So the places that are typically not favorable for truck drivers remain unfavorable. But the the rest of the country kind of sees a little bit of a typically from from a normal year sees that increase. And they see that that push throughout that that kind of tidal wave effect from the coast pushing freight out to these distribution centers, and then from the diffuse distribution centers out to the final destinations. And obviously, it cools down afterwards. But that's typically the effect you see. And I expect we'll still see it. To what degree though? I do not know. Yeah, as you're talking about those ports, and the distribution centers and warehouses all like operating those things, keeping them running efficiently. It takes a lot of labor.

Josh: 19:01

Absolutely.

Eli: 19:02

And, you know, if we're going into a recession, or we're experiencing any kind of a labor shortage, yeah, that's going to affect things, especially on you know, lead times and productivity. ..

Josh: 19:12

Absolutely.

Eli: 19:14

Have you seen any of that or you think we're going to be seeing anything? Honestly, no, well, I won't say no, never say never have I seen it. No. unemployment numbers are still really low, and which is a good thing. So unemployment remains low. I think the things that is still affecting people, and we've kind of experienced it at the office ourselves whether regardless of what your thoughts on it are COVID is still a thing. People get sick and people miss work. So back at the corporate headquarters, you know, Cove COVID tore through and sent a bunch of people to work from home myself included. I made it two and a half years dodging that bullet and finally my number came up. Last one. Yeah, it was such a bummer. I was I was completely convinced I was the main character of this story and I was like, "No, there's no way I'll get it" and then I got, damnit. But it's, it's still a thing. And I think that's what's going to impact warehousing situations, because people in warehouses typically, I mean, you're working close to each other, you're shouting towards each other.

Josh: 20:14

So there's that whole breathing thing going on with each other, I would be more inclined to say that's probably going to have more of an effect. If you follow previous previous spikes. In infections, it's typically around the September timeframe that infections start to spike because kids go back to school. Toddlers are disgusting creatures, and are constantly touching things and coughing and sneezing and bodily fluids everywhere and kids get sick, they come home, they bring it to their parents, parents bring it to work. That's that's what I see causing, like warehouse worker shortages, and things like that. And again, this is entirely unbiased, I don't want this to come off as like, I swing this way or that way. As far as a political spectrum goes, I just follow it because it impacts my job. Right. So I follow the trends in the in the infections graph, because I want to know, if we're going to encounter warehouse shortages, I want to know when we can expect to encounter maybe a driver shortage because people get sick. Truck drivers are pretty both fortunately, and unfortunately isolated in their body of work. They talk to a shipping clerk, they talk to a loader, the rest of the time, they're in that truck by themselves, most of them, so I don't know that necessarily would impact them as much. Yeah, but I foresee it having some kind of impact from the dock handler Sam.

Eli: 21:36

Yeah, I wonder if we're gonna see off like a lower volume of freight moving this retail season, that in years past, just, you know, we're having a lot of shutdowns in China, we're having, you know .. .

Josh: 21:45

Probably, I would say it's most likely that there's going to be less than in previous year. I mean, people are maybe going to spend less we got you know, I think that's the biggest driving factor, to be honest with you. I mean, the shutdowns in China and everything. Obviously, that's huge. But I think the biggest driving factor is people just aren't spending as much money right now. help myself included. Yeah, you know, I prefer to save now that it's a little uncertain because people get nervous people get scared, am I going to have a job tomorrow? Is my job going to be if it's incentive based? Is it going to be as lucrative tomorrow as it was today, and I think people think about that now more than ever, and for some people in my generation, and the generation after mine, this is our first time where we've really had to deal with that, you know, the 2008, recession, I was 17 years old. So I didn't really have to, to feel the impacts of that my parents did, though. And my parents definitely it changed their whole mindset. They, they they became far more frugal, my stepmother being one of them, she became incredibly frugal. This is our kind of wake up call for our generation and the one after us, where it's, it's kind of this warning of, hey, things can change at the drop of a hat. And you really do need to take your financial situation, far more seriously than maybe we have that these past few years. So I have no doubt that'll lead to changes and impacts on our spending situation as people. And obviously, the logistics is essentially just economics on wheels. So it's, it's going to absolutely trickle down into the trucking industry.

Eli: 23:18

Yeah, I suppose that changing consumer spending is obviously going to impact the transportation.

Josh: 23:22

Yeah, absolutely.

Eli: 23:23

Another massive change that we see during September is back to school kids go back to school, which kind of requires their parents to get on more of a set schedule a lot of truck drivers or parents.

Josh: 23:32

Absolutely.

Eli: 23:32

And anytime, you know, this, this change impacts massive amount of people, there's gonna be ripple effects, maybe what do we see it? From a transportation perspective? When kids go back to school, you know, maybe drivers need to be closer to home.

Josh: 23:48

From that perspective, I've never heard it brought up. But you know, when you think about it from just a common sense perspective, if you're a truck driver, obviously, you're maybe you do want to be close to home during school time, or what I would see happening is, your home time needs to be more set. More like scheduled, right? Because with the kids going to school, and if your wife has a job, you you need to set those times. It's like we're going to need daycare this week. I'll be home the next week. Guaranteed and then drivers will want that. So if you have a load that is delayed by a day, and it delays that driver, a lot of drivers you know during the summertime they'll all give me 250 bucks for layover. I'll stay I'll pick it up tomorrow. Some guys have to say hey, man, I gotta go. Right I got I got a kid I gotta go home like you know, we don't have daycare next week. I have to go home and they will leave and then it's it's a whole nother problem of refunding a driver to secure that shipment. But that's that's kind of a very specific example. I like I said, I haven't heard too many heard from managers or reps who have been here for a while that that is a big impact. I'm sure it is. But I just don't think that it's it that it's it's worthy of I wouldn't don't plan on it right on the scale. is what I'm saying don't don't book your freight based on, you know, well, it's September back to school time and then truck drivers need to be home. No, no, don't don't worry about that there's going to be somebody out there to move the freight, don't worry about that. It's the other factors that I worry about far more than that. Sure. So I think the the back to school thing, the biggest thing you're gonna see, you're gonna see a lot of school supplies. That's going to be wrapping up here shortly. That industry in particular, one of our larger customers is a is somebody who moves school supplies for schools and their busiest months have been the past couple months. So that's that industry is also going to be slowing down here. So that's going to be more freight that's off the road. Because you're obviously not moving school supplies while kids are in school. It kind of defeats the purpose. Because now you have to work around these kids, or deliver on the weekends, which is far more expensive. So it's it's far more beneficial to get that out of the way the summer months.

Eli: 25:57

Is September, kind of, especially in the northern part of the United States. Would you say that it's the time where it's the final push of the open deck market?

Josh: 26:07

Oh, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So that's, like we mentioned in the beginning, all your construction and stuff, the South isn't limited, limited by it, because the South is always nice and warm. And the Midwest, basically anything, I would say north of Oklahoma is going to be impacted by it. And they will, they're going to have a hard shut off, we need to have this project done by this date. And this is like I mentioned the beginning here. This is going to be that last push get everything we need right now and get it done. Or it's going to wait until next year.

Eli: 26:36

Yeah. And do areas start enacting those curfews for over dimensional freight and September is usually later into the fall or November?

Josh: 26:45

I believe it's a little bit later into the fall. I'm not 100% Certain. So I won't lie to you. I don't know the exact answer on that. I know something like frost laws doesn't go into into effect just yet. That's that's typically after winter, when the when the seasons change is when they want those. So as far as curfews on over dimensional travel, I'm not 100% Certain Sure. Yeah. So I'd have to I'd have to there's our daytime nighttime curfew. Yeah, I mean, for anything that's, that requires daylight to travel. If you're not required to travel after daylight, obviously, that's going to be impacted. Because sunsets sooner. So before you can hit the road at 630 in the morning drive till eight, nine o'clock at night. And now it's very much you know, your time to travel is severely reduced, you may only have seven, eight hours in a day to drive, right, that cuts your drive time by, you know, three to four hours. So that's 200 Miles less that you could go so that'll definitely be an impact, right?

Eli: 27:45

Labor Day is September 5, yes, Monday, September 5. Thinking about if I'm shipping around near or on Labor Day?

Josh: 27:52

Get it done before get it done before saying anything I have always said if you can move it beforehand, or move it after, do not haul product over a holiday, it's going to be more expensive. That could be in the holiday, Easter Christmas Labor Day, Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Earth Day, your birthday, whatever, don't move freight over a holiday, it's it will cost you more money. Guaranteed 110% to a lot of companies you work with know that or the majority. Yes. But when you talk to the volume of customers that we talked to in our position, you would be surprised the amount of times we come back with a rate and like this is$800 more than it was like yes, you're moving it over Labor Day. Why is it $800 More because driver has to sit on it for two extra days. Yeah, and it's a holiday and he's away from home. That that all costs money. You know, now on occasion and I think I've said this before on previous episodes, if you can find a guy who's from that area, you may not pay as much it's still going to be a premium no driver is going to say oh well I'm from there. I'll move it for a totally regular rate. I'm no I don't want more money. Said no one ever, but you can get it cheaper. Because the guy might say you know if it's delivering to Oklahoma City, they go on from there and I'll be there on Saturday or I'll I'll get there on you know, Saturday morning Friday night and I'll get to spend the holiday with my family anyhow Sure. I'll take it but he's still there want a little bit extra money?

Eli: 29:26

But I mean if you're don't don't ever book feight like that don't ever book your freight don't ever talk to your freight broker or your asset-based carrier and say "hey, I need to move this over you know Labor Day to this area can you find me a guy who's from there and cut me a deal?" It's it's just makes life harder. Because now we got to limit our carrier pool you know, every time we take a call on that load, are you from Oklahoma? No, all right later, and it just makes life way more difficult. Outside of that any other planning tips for September which is what people should be thinking about?

Josh: 29:55

Ah, get as much of your freight front loaded into the first part of the month as possible. And that's totally counterproductive to Labor Day holiday. But but anything after that Labor Day holiday, try and get as much of it out those first couple of weeks as you can, because it isn't end of quarter. So rates will spike at the end of the month more so than they do typically, because it is end of quarter. So if you can get it out early, get it out, if it absolutely must go at the end of the month, be prepared for a premium. And if it's freight for your numbers, make sure you trust the carrier that's hauling it. Sure. And that's not me trying to plug ATS and say, you know, make sure it's secure you you can trust. That's why you should call ATS I'm saying in your network, which hopefully we're a part of, give it to the people that you know will get it done. Because if it misses, and it's accounting for your numbers, well, then it rolls into the next quarter. And the books are all screwed up. So right and there's always a massive push at the end of the quarter. Absolutely. And capacity, people are going to buy capacity. And what I mean by that is, is if somebody has a load that's important to them, they will pay an exorbitant amount over market, and just to pay for somebody to fall off another load. And it sounds horrible. But it is a thing that happens in our industry. You know, people are motivated by money. And if you're a driver, and you book a load for $2,500, and you're in route, and your dispatcher calls you and says,"Hey, I got a load that's picking up 25 miles away delivering to a location that's within 80 miles of your other load, but they're gonna pay you$1,800 more." Boy, that's hard to say no to so be prepared for that kind of that kind of I'll say cutthroat mentality. Because you know, you're not, you're not, it's not going behind anybody's back, you don't know the person that you just bought off that or that you just kind of screwed over for by by that driver off their load. But it's, it's real people do it.

Eli: 31:43

So given the opportunity, and if it makes sense for me to do so volume wise, or whatever, am I, Is it a good idea to start thinking about walking into contract?

Josh: 31:52

I don't think it's a bad idea. I don't think it's a bad I guess juncture? No, I think if you i I'm at that position, from the sales standpoint, where I'm comfortable reviewing RFQs. We got to a point there for a little while, where somebody will send an RFQ over and I'll just kind of laugh. I'm like, There's no way man, there's there's not there's not a chance I'm going to be able to tell you these, these rates will be good. three days from now, let alone six, eight months. But no, I think you can do it. Now. If you're a customer out there listening to this, and you're like, "do I need to run an RFQ?" If it's something you want to do? Absolutely. I'd say give it a shot. It's there's a there's a level of stability right now that I'd be comfortable. . . I'm comfortable reviewing and pricing the RFQ is that come to my desk.

Eli: 32:34

Is there a typical, typically a level of stability as we finish out the year? Q4 is relatively predictable?

Josh: 32:41

RFQs are typically run right now because it's just the end of the fiscal year. That's that's the main reason for him. There's, there's no, there's no level of stability that comes with a certain part of the year that makes you say, "now we should do the RFQ." Markets are always hot in certain areas. If you ran an RFQ in July, you're dealing with a spike in the South for produce season, if you run an RFQ now, it's end of quarter, you know, end of construction and harvest season. So no time is better than the other. I think most people just want to right now because it's ended fiscal year. Yeah.

Eli: 33:13

And you can you can always like microbid.

Josh: 33:16

Yeah, that honestly, those are the bids that I would prefer more, I would honestly almost prefer quarterly bids, I'll give you rates for three months. Yeah, because certain areas are so volatile, it's it's very hard to price because you want to give your customers the best deals, but you got to protect yourself as well. So I mean, for example, there's a lane from the recording for a customer that's coming out of Idaho going to California. And it's we can give them great rates right now. But in two, three months time, it's going to be a completely different story. So I prefer these quarterly bids, because I can give you real time market prices without jeopardizing my you know, jeopardizing losing money on my end, because I don't get freight back. And I don't ask for more money. So I want to make sure that I'm protected. And I want to make sure that I'm able to service your freight at a rate at a fair rate. I'm not looking to gouge anybody, I'm not looking to lose money, I want to be paid appropriately for my time. And I want to give you a fair rate. That's That's my goal. Every mean every broker is different. Every asset carrier is different. You and that varies. I mean, that even goes down to a company level. If you called 25 Different reps from C.H Robinson or ATS or Swift or whatever. And ask them for a rate you might get 25 different prices, because certain people value their time differently, or they have different pricing strategies. From my perspective, I want to get a fair rate and service the customer to keep them satisfied because an unsatisfied customer won't be your customer for very long. So and it's very hard to do that in some areas for year long pricing some length, some things are great. They stay pretty even keeled throughout the year. The highs and lows are very minimal. You can definitely compensate for them and other areas. It's just It's hard. It's very hard to price.

Eli: 35:03

Well, anything else about September Josh? I think we did it for a you got a good brain for this thing.

Josh: 35:07

I It's I just I just like talking. I wish you didn't say I'm so much but yeah, everybody does that. Yeah, I honestly I can't take all the credit I have to give a huge shout out to Sean Glens Jerry Ramirez, Amanda Garner and Brady Winkles, they they provide me with the information they're my mentors that have helped me price this more Huge shout outs to the to the to the managers who mentored me that helped me get this information and Derek Gertkin and Mike Zarns and Crystal are fantastic people that that the only reason I know this is because of them. Right? So and you know, I've got current current mentors that I learned even more from in, you know, Jason Watercott, Eric Metso, these guys are completely invaluable to my growth as a manager. The only reason I'm able to, to give this information like I'm able to give it is because of the people who who gave it to me. And everybody I just named is absolutely crucial in my development as a as a as a hello person. I mean, you know, I've grown so much since I got to this company. So if you're enjoying the pricing information, you should have seen my life before this. .

Eli: 36:13

Back at the sports bar.

Josh: 36:14

Yeah, exactly. Were moonlighting at a sports bar and so, but I know I thoroughly enjoy it, and I can't thank them enough and I really enjoy doing these podcasts. So in closing, I guess dare I say it go Vikings.

Eli: 36:28

But oh my goodness, we got to get back into this. September is when all that starts again.

Josh: 36:34

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. My mother is in town though the week of the first game.

Eli: 36:38

So if you don't live in Minnesota, you are lucky.

Josh: 36:40

Yeah. It's you're from Minnesota sports team perpetual pain. I like explaining to people I'm 31 years old, which some people listening to this are gonna be like, Damn, that's all another people listening to this. And I'm like, Yeah, okay. But being 31 the only Minnesota sports championship from a big four leagues NBA, NHL, NFL MLB was when I was six months old, when the twins won the World Series. So that's how far back you gotta go. So I switched to motorsports.

Eli: 37:07

It's gonna be, it's gonna be sweet when they pull it off someday when you're in your nineties.

Josh: 37:11

I keep saying that. I keep saying like when it happens, it's gonna feel good. And then I look at all the Cubs fans that were born and hit the grave without ever seeing a Cubs World Series. Oh my god, that could be me, man. That could be me.

Eli: 37:23

Gosh. All right. Well, thanks. Thanks again, Josh.

Josh: 37:26

Not a problem. Thanks, everybody for listening.

Eli: 37:28

You've been listening to Beyond The Road, the transportation industry podcast produced by Anderson Trucking Service. If you liked what you heard here today, make sure to follow along wherever you listen to podcasts, so you don't miss our next episode, which we publish every single Tuesday. For more information on the trucking industry in September, I have linked an article in the show notes below that you should check out. It goes into further detail on what shifts in the open-deck, dry van and reefer and over-dimensional markets during the month of September, and some tips you can use to get the most from your supply chain this month. For more transportation industry related content and information check out the ATS Inc. Learning Hub at ats-nc.com/learning-hub. I've also put a link to that in the show notes below. Finally, thank you for tuning in to this market update. We plan to do one of these every single month. So if you like it, make sure to tune in next month for the trucking industry in October. I'm sure we'll have Josh back on again; he always does an excellent job. For myself and all of us here at Beyond The Road, thanks for listening and I'll speak to you again soon, on another episode of Beyond The Road The Transportation Industry Podcast.