Navigating the Mining Sector's Boom with Insights from Trevor Hall

Get ready to dive into the exciting world of mining stocks with our guest Trevor Hall, a seasoned journalist turned mining and mineral exploration podcaster. In this captivating episode, Trevor shares his fascinating journey from academia to the mining industry, driven by his insatiable curiosity and knack for asking 'dumb questions.' Join us as we explore the signs of a surging bull market in commodities like copper, gold, and silver, and discuss the critical role of geopolitical forces on supply and demand. We also delve into the art of stock picking in the mining sector, uncovering the key factors to consider when evaluating mining and exploration companies. Don't miss this insightful and thought-provoking conversation with Trevor Hall on the Mining Stock Daily Podcast and Journalism.

The mining industry is experiencing bullish momentum like never before, and in this episode, we explore the reasons behind this surge with Trevor Hall, host of the Mining Stock Daily podcast. From the impact of U.S. tariffs on EV technologies to China's influence on commodity super cycles, we dissect the market dynamics shaping the mining sector. We also dive into the investment landscape, contrasting the volatility of junior mining companies with the agility of mid-tier players like Equinox Gold and B2Gold. Discover the undervalued mining stocks to watch out for and gain insights on the importance of jurisdiction, project quality, and management when selecting your investments. Join us as we navigate the world of mining stocks and uncover the secrets to successful investing with Trevor Hall.

Are you intrigued by the world of mining stocks and exploration equities? Join us as we sit down with Trevor Hall, the host of Mining Stock Daily podcast, for an in-depth exploration of the mining industry. In this episode, Trevor shares his journey from academia to the heart of the mining sector, driven by his passion for continuous learning and engagement with industry experts. We discuss the indicators of a confirmed bull market in commodities like copper, gold, and silver, and examine the role of geopolitical forces in shaping supply and demand. From the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on EV technologies to the metal requirements for digital infrastructure build-outs, we uncover the trends and investment opportunities in the mining industry. Don't miss this enlightening conversation on the art of stock picking in the mining sector and discover the projects that could be ripe for growth.

The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:08

My name is Michael Guy, a publisher of the Lead Lager Pourer. Joining me for the rough hour is Trevor Hall, who's got a podcast himself as well. Trevor, introduce yourself to those that are listening. Who are you, what's your background, what have you done throughout your career and how hard is it to host a podcast?

Speaker 2: 0:26

Hey Michael, thanks for having me on. I will admit there's a little bit of trepidation here this morning coming on because we have confirmed a commodity bull market specifically in mining and metals in the last couple of weeks and there are some huge moves happening this week that have caught me off guard, to be quite honest with you. Uh, yeah, so my background I'm a journalist by academic, trade and practice and then I found mining about 10 years ago. I was working in academia that's one of the few schools that had a mining and mineral exploration tract and I just kind of fell into it and was generally very curious about it and just kind of followed it and just kept on asking a lot of dumb questions to very smart people in academia. So I'm the best minds and there was trying to figure out where that interest in resources and metals and mining kind of fit my journalism background and I started doing some social media work for a few companies, some based here in Colorado, others focused in Botswana, and you know that was good kind of cutting my teeth a little bit. And then that was also about when podcasting started to catch fire and things like the smart speaker technology, the amazon alexas and the apple home speakers started coming on the market. So I was kind of diving into learning how that medium fit. And so when I started mining stock daily, it specifically was only an amazon alexa skill. So, like the first probably month or month and a half of mining stock daily, you can only find those episodes on amazon alexa. And then I kind of sat back and was like why am I just doing this? Like there's, I can have a huge distribution through, you know, a podcast itself. And so, uh, found ways to take the same content we were doing and redistribute it as a podcast, uh, to many about 12 different networks. And that was about seven years ago and here we are doing it ever since.

Speaker 2: 2:46

So Mining Stock Daily Monday through Thursday we publish a pre-market morning briefing of mineral exploration, equity news, mining news, whatever the hot topics are that day. We get that out about an hour roughly before the market opens. And then throughout those days we also do market commentary with specific people that are following and giving analysis. So mostly the exploration, equities and the mining stocks, but also general macro, what's moving market, the general markets, we'll dive into that. And then Friday we do long form episodes that obviously are shared on the podcast. And then recently, in the last year, I've also started publishing those videos of the log forums on YouTube, on our Mining Stock Daily YouTube channel. That's still kind of new at the heart of it, like I'm such a traditionalist, like I grew up in radio and broadcast radio and so I'm like you know that's still kind of my bread and butter. And so MSD is still, at its heart, an audio form podcast. But just with the technology obviously we're jumping into video a little bit as well. But I think we'll always, the media will always be traditionally audio.

Speaker 1: 4:12

So you said, when you were starting to get into the space, you asked a lot of dumb questions. Oh yeah, which I think is critical. When you're in a podcast host, right, to some extent, you have to kind of start from the lowest common denominator the listeners and what they know or don't know. So I'll start with my first dumb question, which is why the commodity equities and not the commodities themselves? Why is the focus on that?

Speaker 2: 4:39

So it really had nothing to do with markets. It really had nothing to do with markets. My intrigue with mining really started with. Well, first I got exposure to the industry and I was just like I don't know, like a light bulb went off and I was just generally curious. And then I was like, wait, so mine operations. You work in these big holes in the ground. You get to drive huge haul trucks with big equipment, you get to blow shit up, and then you get to use science to produce these things.

Speaker 2: 5:13

Like why does not anybody just like understand this, like tell that story of the mining process and why it was so interesting but yet so forgotten? You know, for the last, you know decades, um, and so that's really what I set out with. But as I was kind of growing into that narrative and that type of storytelling, that's when I found markets and you know and that's like, oh, maybe I should be investing. You know, and I remember like I mean I didn't know anything. I was like, oh, I'm gonna buy like 10 shares of newmont, I'm gonna buy a few dozen shares of tech resources. That sounds like a good idea. You know, it's like I didn't know what I was doing whatsoever. And then, you know, you just kind of learn you, you just go through this, you go through this path of finding what's most interesting to you and so, through that process is where I found exploration and, um, you know, made some contacts up in vancouver, canada, where this continues to be the hub of, of exploration equities to this day, the old vancouver stock exchange and so many stories, historic stories of, you know, boom and bust from vancouver, um, and that's where I found exploration and meeting people.

Speaker 2: 6:36

And again, I went from asking dumb questions to academics to asking dumb questions to, you know, ceos and uh, market makers and analysts in Vancouver. And I just learned but I think that that journalistic background helps because I'm really not afraid to ask what many people would perceive as dumb questions. There's a lot more, even after 10 years. There's a lot. There's a lot in this industry I don't know that I need to continue to learn from, and then the more I learn, the more I can kind of, uh, continue to level up that foundation of education and then turn that around in the podcast and while I'm asking, maybe sometime asking a dumb, naive questions, I can turn around and ask you know, know, poignant questions, uh, and you know, I think msd has at least I believe it has that reputation of being, uh, an honest place to go to for constructive dialogue.

Speaker 2: 7:38

Uh, specifically when it comes to companies and issuers that have news out, it is we do a it's a sponsor driven revenue model. So I work with a number of different equity companies, but those partners all know, and I make it explicitly clear, that if there's a hard question that needs to be answered, I'm going to ask it, and so I think that's where we're kind of. You know, I think we've got a pretty trustful brand and reputation and I just want to make sure that that continues.

Speaker 1: 8:10

I said there's that, that cool factor or wow factor of what goes into the actual mine exploration. You said it's kind of been forgotten now, which is, I think, a broader trend in terms of people just focusing more on the LED bulbs on the screen as opposed to what's going on in terms of real life Strange way to frame it. But since you mentioned you do also social media work, right, do you have a sense that there's almost like a PR issue when it comes to mining and exploration companies to get people to be excited about the space again, or is the only thing that's going to do? It is a chart that's up and to the right?

Speaker 2: 8:49

That's a great question, one that we've, I think, constantly been asking ourselves as an industry. It's like what's the best way to improve the reputation of mining, and it's unfortunate, but it goes without. Any industry, like the most headlines in any industry are going to happen when something bad happens right. And so, specifically in mining, we see engineering failures, tailings, disasters, you know, expiration. Even in expiration, we're seeing some recent headlines of it looks like some shoddy assay results from a specific company. Like those are the things that do give the industry bad reputations. But that's also where a lot of the headlines are coming. Media is not going to pick up the good news. They really don't care if a gold mining company knocked it out of the park with their quarterly revenues, they just don't care. Company knocked it out of the park with their quarterly revenues, they just don't care. Uh, the mining sector itself if you look at gold miners in the s&p, it just makes up a fraction of it and I like I don't remember the specific data point, but I think it makes up like one tenth percent of the s&p, and so that's how much the financial sector cares about gold mining. Uh, but as far as like a pr headline, I mean, listen it's.

Speaker 2: 10:13

There's a great book out right now called the war below. I'll plug uh, uh. Ernest scheider with his new book he's he covered the shale boom for reuters and now he's transitioned, transitioned to covering battery metals development and mining in the Americas and he just came out with this great book, just about done with it, called the War Below. I would plug it. But what he does in the book is he really highlights this the narrative between all parties involved. The narrative between all parties involved. So the narrative between the mining company looking to bring on projects, the narrative of communities who most are in favor of bringing these projects online because of the economic benefits going to bring the communities. Then you have the traditional like non-governmental organizations, first Nations you, you know american tribes that potentially are against it, and then possibly even some like environmental groups. Obviously that fits into the ngos, but he doesn't. So he doesn't really like he doesn't. He does a really good job of not, you know, uh, putting himself into one corner of what he supports.

Speaker 2: 11:25

It is like a very large, encompassing conversation and through the book you really get an understanding of how difficult it is to bring on a project and also maintain a positive reputation outside of those direct communities that mining companies are working with right, and so you know it's just not as simple. There's not a simple answer, michael, is there's just. There's just not, because there's a lot of nimbyism in this world and there's a lot of things, even if it isn't in your backyard, they would just rather have you have no minds at all, but yet still you know, have these fiber optic cables and cell phones and computers and data centers and ai. So there's a huge disconnect here. But I think that there's there's things happening. I can see things in the background where it's becoming becoming. People are getting a lot more attentive to it and we're seeing it in policies as well from governments lately, which is pretty fascinating.

Speaker 1: 12:28

All right. So you started the conversation off by saying we're in a confirmed bull market for commodities. Let's talk about that word confirmed. I happen to agree with you right and I've been highlighting, I think, china's the catalyst for that. I've actually been myself in my own writings, talking more about China as a contrarian trade, not necessarily that it has to reaccelerate, but at least as long as it's bottomed, that may be enough right From an economic and market perspective, and those thoughts have been on fire the last four or five weeks. But what makes a market a confirmed bull in your view?

Speaker 2: 13:05

There's just breakouts everywhere. I mean, look, you got copper. It's up over five bucks again this morning. Golds if it maintains this momentum today, it's going to be the highest close we've ever had. We'll see what happens. I think we're sitting at 2413 futures basis, so that looks like it wants to test new all-time highs. Silver I didn't even see it. Silver is above that illustrious $30. In fact, it's not just over, it's almost over $83, $30, $83. I mean, there are breakouts everywhere happening right now. It's a little too hot.

Speaker 2: 13:47

I will say listen, I'm more of a structural bull market type of guy. I get a little. I sit back in my seat and think a little bit when I see big moves like this, specifically in copper, this one's kind of been a head scratcher. This, uh, specifically in copper, this one's kind of been a head scratcher. Um, you know, because what happens when things go exponential is that they tend to come back and fall pretty hard. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I'm just saying there's potential here. There's liquidity happening to where you know for some of us who were dabbling in these markets for the last two years, when, like nobody else cared, we're basically buying from ourselves and buying cheap paper and um, very dilutive financings. There's liquidity here and you can take profits, and so I'm actually just taking this opportunity and taking some money off the table. That's what the market's for. So if there's people that want to buy it, then I'll sell to it.

Speaker 2: 14:41

But uh, yeah, and with the china thing, like you mentioned and maybe this is more of a conversation I'm not a china expert. I'm obviously very intrigued and I understand the the role china played in that structural commodity super cycle of, you know, the late 2000s. I'm not necessarily convinced that it's just going to be China in this cycle. I think we're very early stages in this commodity cycle. Still, I'm not convinced it's just going to be based on China. I think it's going to be based on a world consumption of these metals, and if the US keeps putting tariffs on EV technologies and resources resources then that's inflationary. They're going to have to find a way to supply it. That's not coming from china.

Speaker 2: 15:28

Uh, why would they? You know, if biden gets re-elected, does that do those tariffs stop at lithium? Why could he do the same thing for nickel, which is predominantly coming out of indonesia, and the chinese are really pushing a lot of nickel supply into the market. Would you do it for copper? I don't know. I mean what? What is on the table, what's off the table?

Speaker 2: 15:50

You know we just had the same conversation, uh, about russian, uh, nickel and aluminum. You know what's on the table, what's off table. It turns out that, uh, you know the russian supply of those metals. You know that was a little too volatile and so that would have been, it might have been a disaster, so they didn't really touch those. But you know what if things continue to escalate? What is on the table, what is off the table? So I think it's really you're talking about a geopolitical consumption of supply that's available and those supplies continue to be dwindled because there's been 40 years lack of investment and bringing on new mine supply and almost every single metal uh, you know base metals and industrial metals. So you got a real supply demand problem there. You have geopolitical risks that could absolutely be inflationary and even squeeze those metals even more. But on the back of that, like I've also been very interested in the digital infrastructure build-out, you talk about artificial intelligence and you know the data centers that need to be built to continue to keep this technology up and moving and improving.

Speaker 2: 17:03

I mean you talk about exponential growth. You've got to look at what it takes to build one data center. I reported in a panel two weeks ago in Frankfurt. I did some research the Microsoft data center they built outside Chicago itself, which was a half, I think it was like half a billion dollars to build, required over 2 000 tons of copper alone just for one data center. And they're building these things left and right and in fact my some of my contacts that I know that work in data center construction. Not only are they getting bigger, they're getting taller, so it's not just like one-story buildings, they're getting to be double, you know, two, three, four stories tall. So it's going to take a lot of metal and if you are crunching the supply during this of deglobalization, I guess you kind of source it somehow.

Speaker 1: 18:09

So I mean this bull market has got a long long way to go, I think, yeah, the digital infrastructure side is fascinating. I'm actually kind of blown away that people haven't realized that you can't do AI without a lot more electricity, without a lot more raw materials like you're saying Power where the power comes from.

Speaker 2: 18:33

So they want to build these things where the power is cheap. But then it's like well, how much capacity does that one area have? I know in Kansas they're building a lot of data centers because it's cheap land, cheap power. But like, how much capacity is left? Like I, you know I, that's a genuine question. I just don't know. Um, so then you kind of look at all right, well, so we had this other conversation like, well, would these companies like the amazons and microsoft's conversation, like, well, with these companies like the amazons and microsoft's, would they start looking at supplying their own energy? Like, would they supply a small module reactor to power their data center up? I mean, why not? The car manufacturers are doing deals or offtakes for their own lithium and nickel. What is it so far-fetched to think that a microsoft and amazon might do the same to shore up their supply? I don't think so yeah, it's actually um.

Speaker 1: 20:15

Uranium to me seems like the real longer term way to play. Uh, yeah, I don't see how you can do ai, you know if that's our future, without to your point, the small modular reactors and just uranium in general, nuclear in general, um. I want to go back to the breakout point. Um, because it is challenging to know if those breakouts are real or false. And if it's, because it is challenging to know if those breakouts are real or false, and if it's reallocation or just algos, so play the devil's advocate against yourself. What would make it not suddenly look like it's confirmed? I mean, the simplest answer would be just retrace, right, but do you have a sense of if this is big institutional smart money that's reallocating, or is it just momentum and then quant traders are playing it?

Speaker 2: 20:59

Some of my sources have told me that conversations that they're having is institutional money coming back into commodities that have been absent for a number of years. So there's that and that's obviously positive. We're not seeing a lot of new retail, individual, family fund money coming in either at this point. I mean, why would you? The stock market, the S&P, is making new all-time highs, right, the Fed doesn't want to cut rates, or they want to cut rates, excuse me, they don't want to hike rates, and so you have that structural market that's worked so well for them for the last you know, 12 years. Like, what do I need? What do we need gold and and copper miners for? Why take on such risk and commodities where we've been burnt so hard before? Um, I think what's happening now is you're seeing a lot of consumption out of, uh, out of the east, in asia. Uh, central banks have been buying, uh, the physical, physical gold, so that's very promising. Um, my, I mean, I guess, to bring back to your devil's advocate, like I'm sitting back here I'm watching charts gap up higher, I'm when these happen and the sentiment's a little the fervor is a little too hot, and I'm like, okay, maybe it's time to come back down and tame the waters and let the let the pot cool a little bit, and so that's why I said I'm taking I'm taking this opportunity to take some profits.

Speaker 2: 22:29

And listen, I like the last two and a half years, michael, have been so hard. I mean not only as investor in like junior mining companies, but as a podcast guy who's like trying to continue to create content about what's going on in the market and it's like just been doing what. It was like you put out a really positive technical report and you see your stock price sell off the news. There's a while like it was really tough, and so I think this is something we haven't. There's a while like it was really tough and so, listen, I think this is something we haven't had in a while, and I think for a lot of seasoned people who bought cheap need to consider like taking this opportunity, uh, just because, uh, we've been here before, we've had big moves. I'm not saying it's going to come back and crash by any means, but there's been very few times in the last three years where there's been the opportunity to have liquidity. We haven't seen the buyers last three years like we've seen in the last couple of weeks. That's important.

Speaker 1: 23:31

I think it's impressive that all this is happening with the dollar still as strong as it has been. I mean, the old axiom was what Strong commodity is a weak dollar? I think it's impressive that all this is happening with the dollar still as strong as it has been. Yeah, I mean the old axiom was what Strong commodity is a weak dollar? Right, the weaker the dollar gets, the dollar-denominated commodities start running. So the fact that they've been this strong with the dollar also strong, makes me wonder if, when you have the inevitable secular turn for the dollar against other currencies yeah, how much, how much more juice is there then for the commodity side? I mean, could be substantial.

Speaker 2: 24:00

Yeah, no, I think you're right and you know paulo macro has been talking about this a little bit. Uh, you know there was this, the milkshake. The milkshake theory was playing out dollar up, gold up, right, and it played really well and and paula's kind of been playing thinking out loud some thoughts about maybe that synchronization finally flips so that traditional dollar weakness, commodities up, uh, type of play that we're used to and it, you know, it seems like maybe that's what we're seeing. I mean, the dollar kind of peaked at 106 and a half on the dixie and we're now sitting about, well, four and a half while gold is like, as I mentioned, trying to make a new all-time high, close, I mean, maybe that's it, it's.

Speaker 2: 24:50

I think it's a little too early to confirm that and you know I'm by no means an fx expert, but I think we could play that now. If it busts down below 104, if dixie falls below 104 and gold starts moving way higher, uh, I think that's confirmation we're looking for. As far as that dollar gold combination, that's traditional, right, yeah, copper will be well above $5. So weak dollar is good, I mean, why not? I mean, what if it goes back to $100? Where do metals go? I think it's going to go a lot higher.

Speaker 1: 25:40

So we touched on gold, we touched on silver, touched on copper. Let's talk about some of the metals or other industrial commodities that don't get a lot of play in the media right, but are equally, if not more, important. I'm thinking things like palladium. What parts of the commodity space, space you think need more spotlight?

Speaker 2: 26:01

yeah, uh, great question. Like almost all, I mean, a lot of the industrial metals are kind of in the tank. I mean I'm thinking zinc, nickel, um yeah, you look at a lot of these charts and there's no interest. Nickel's been interesting just because, as I mentioned before, the high-pressured acid leach technology out of Indonesia is bringing a lot of nickel onto the market and there was a big discussion about this in February and early March because nickel prices were just really in the tank and nickel equities, nickel explorers were in the tank and major producers were shutting down operations. So you think about those headlines and if you're a real contrarian then your head needs to pick up. You're like, oh well, is this going to last forever? This can't last forever. And so there was a real opportunity there to start buying nickel equities and kind of speculating there and that probably played pretty well for you. But it's still not there yet there's still a question about supply. But there's some great companies who do very good work in the nickel space in North America that you could be paying very close attention to.

Speaker 2: 27:19

Zinc's really interesting. Nobody loves zinc. I don't think anybody ever loves zinc until it really really starts making a move. But with these subdued prices. I think you can look at really good bulk tonnage operations with zinc and start thinking on a contrarian mindset of like, okay, maybe now's the time, because it's not so loved. I mean, we just put on tariffs on chinese lithium again. Would they do the same with zinc or nickel, I mean? And so there's opportunities there and I think it's just you kind of go. If you feel like you need to plug your nose when you're buying, it's probably a good time to buy in the industrial space. But yeah, there's some. I mean, there's some great operations out there. I think you know I'm a big fan of what a few companies are doing in that space. So from Sudbury to British Columbia up to UConn, there's some great projects with good teams.

Speaker 1: 28:22

All right. So let's expand on that, because I think that goes into the process of identifying which companies to look at. Now look, there's a lot of ways you can get access to the space. You can do CTFs, you can do broad-based exposure. Just focus on large cap end. There seems to be always this debate about junior versus non-junior when it comes to mining stocks. Junior, obviously much more volatile, more dependent upon oil, which we can touch on because that does complicate things. I mean, if oil were to double, then some of these mining operations will be a lot less profitable. There's a lot of energy-intensive activity.

Speaker 2: 29:04

But how do you go about even identifying undervalued equity plays? So I guess you got to look at where your risk profile is. So I try to diversify my risk within my own portfolio. I will trade the major producers here and there calls and puts once in a while, but for the most part I steer away from them because I just don't get. You don't get the, you don't get the beta, you don't get the leverage in the commodity price in the major producers.

Speaker 2: 29:30

If we're just talking gold, maybe just let's just focus on gold here if we can. Gold, maybe just let's just focus on gold here if we can. And so listen, I think the major thrust is going to come from the mid-tier producers. Um, they have been able to keep their, their costs, lower than the, than the big boys, most likely because they're more nimble uh, not as huge projects, you know. They don't have to drown themselves in bureaucracy and administration. I like the mid-tiers the Equinox Golds, the B2 Golds, the Caliber Minings there's a lot in there, two or three projects. I would say. If you've got two or three good projects, operating projects, in your portfolio, I would say that's a good mid-tier producer.

Speaker 2: 30:20

But what's going to happen and this is what I'm really and I've been saying this on the podcast over and over and I think this is pertinent for your listeners, michael is that what we have not seen yet are those Q2 financials. We had a huge run in gold in March and April and those prices in the product were not necessarily fully reflective in the Q1 financials. They will be in Q2. And kind of positioning myself as a trade here, that I'm thinking that those Q2 financials as the product price is fully realized and the cash cost of producing that product is pretty reasonable and flat, since inflation's stabilized for the most part, I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of margin in those books and I think it's going to take a lot of people by surprise. I think Wall Street is going to sit back in their chairs and ask themselves how the hell they missed it. Pretty simple, they just weren't paying attention. And I think there's potential for a real pension and I think there's potential for a real frenzy to get into these positions, because not many industries are going to have, uh, that type of margin anymore. And here they are. Here comes the gold miners roaring back. So I that's what I mean, that's what I'm anticipating, uh, and I'm kind of positioning myself for that and waiting for july and august to see what those numbers are. If it doesn't work out, I'll trade out of it. But I, you know, I, I just I. I don't understand anybody in their right mind who's owning shares in a gold miner, how the hell they would sell right now. I just it's, it's just I. It just boggles my mind. I mean, I'd be happy to buy those shares, but on the junior equity side, on the exploration side, where there's a lot more risk.

Speaker 2: 32:24

Listen, you want to be in a favorable jurist. Well, jurisdiction is interesting. You want to have good project the rocks are going to tell the story and you want to have good management, right, I mean clear and simple. Uh, because geology can. The geology is the truth machine that can really put management in a corner, but bad management can really ruin good rocks, and so you got to be very, very, uh, attentive to that when you're talking about jurisdictions, like you know, I like to.

Speaker 2: 33:00

You know I've got positions in a number of different equities all the way from Yukon to Nevada, columbia and even Africa. Right is pretty safe, but if the jurisdiction is perceived a little bit more risky by the market, then I'm going to do a little bit more diving and probably be a little bit more attentive to what's happening politically in those countries. I know Colombia is, I always perceived as being very risky. One of my largest positions right now is in Columbia and I just I think, I think it's that jurisdictional sentiment, negative sentiment in Columbia is a little overdone. But you know the market will say, the market will tell me if I'm right or wrong. But the rocks on this project are just unreal and management's good. They've had good turnaround and have done big projects and sold it off for lots of money before and so I like that.

Speaker 2: 34:02

Well, that's, that's what I want to back. Um, nevada is obviously good, continues to be the central mining hub of the united states. I, you know them in arizona, I like both. But those are not without the risks, right, a lot of political risk in the US when it comes to those states, maybe less so in Nevada. But again, it's almost like time decay, right, it takes a lot of time to get projects online and permitted and brought up to speed. However, exploration can really be a big game changer. Despite all of its history of mining success in Nevada, it is still lots of exploration opportunity there in that state. So there's some good companies doing really good work in those states as well.

Speaker 1: 34:52

You had mentioned management being good, and that can be a a very qualitative argument. Sure, so how do you even go about identifying good management? I mean, is it the old school way of you know, actually listening to what they're saying, actually asking questions, or are there quantitative metrics that help you determine this is a good management team? That's that's spearheading this company.

Speaker 2: 35:19

Yeah, well, I I mean obviously great question. I'll tell you once you need to pay. Have they done this before, you know? Have they had success before? Uh, are they just trying to replicate the same thing that they did in the prior win? I think that's obviously important. Um, how are they positioned? Are they in line with shareholders a specific price of the equity, or were they in for one one hundredth of a penny? Did they spend $30 for three million shares during the foundation of the company? That I do not like. I cannot. It's just that's really hard. That's a really hard thing to swallow as an investor.

Speaker 2: 35:58

I think and unfortunately that happens far too often if you look at the paperwork, you know, are they credible with what they're saying? Are they? Are they out there actively trying to market their market their company, while also diligently working on the ground? There is a fine line between, you know, boots and meters on the ground and marketing. It's like, are they over marketed, are they spending a lot of money in marketing or are they where they should be, spending more money on the ground? I think that's something you need to be paying attention to.

Speaker 2: 37:04

Uh, and then one of the latest news items is basically selling, insider selling, you know is are they? Are they selling options because they had a boom in their equity or are they selling options because they were going to expire? If they're going to expire, then I totally understand. Like you know, take your money, like totally get it. I anybody would, would do the same thing. But if they got time on, if they got time on those options and they're just selling because the market capped market cap really moved higher than I'd probably question their motives so it takes time to get mines up and running to your point about permitting all this at least 10 years, can you believe that, at least in the us?

Speaker 2: 37:48

in the us, which is crazy, because like that's why I like africa, because you can do something in like half the time, if not short right.

Speaker 1: 37:55

Funny how red tape has to do a lot with that. But the um where I'm going with that is okay. Presumably a lot of these companies have unprofitable minds right that had certain assumptions as far as the commodity price right At that moment in time, um, and there has to be some confidence that the average price will be high enough to justify the reopening the mine, which is a big operation, um, any sense of sort of how much above a current price commodities need to stick around for to get management to be comfortable getting some of these unprofitable mines back up and running. Because I have to imagine that's where the real opportunity is. It's the lag of the unprofitable mines now being able to be used to supply the market. But you need some time for the commodity prices to stay healthy to get the NPV calculations to make it worth it.

Speaker 2: 38:44

Right, I'm not so sure. I don't think we're there with the zinc and nickel mines yet, right, but on the precious metals stuff, listen, if you weren't making money, excuse me. If you are not making money at these prices, you should just go do something else, because this is crazy, how good these metals prices are in gold and silver and copper. There's just no justification of why your cash cost should be higher than what the spot price is now. Just shut down the mine, you know. Go reclaim it and move on. Go do something else. You know that your cash cost should not be this high because you're really screwing this up. Let's just be quite honest, um, and I think the market's done a pretty good job of like weeding that out.

Speaker 2: 39:34

Listen to this bear market that we've gotten out of in the last three years. The market did what it was supposed to do when it comes to miners or, uh, the explorers. The market weeded out the bad from the good. Turns out, michael, there was a lot of really bad projects. I mean, there was a lot of really beat up companies, because the market realized it was going to take a lot of work, a lot of capital, uh, to bring these projects up to even something that might be feasibly economic, and so the market did the heavy lifting the last three years, and so now you're reaping your rewards of what's good. The best companies are the ones that are just absolutely flying right now. It doesn't take hard to figure it out. Just go open up some charts, um, you'll figure it out.

Speaker 2: 40:24

Uh, so, yeah, as far as, like, reopening mines, uh, there is some opportunity there. Like, um, uh, some partners of ours uh, sierra madre, gold, golden silver they got a silver project out of mexico. Uh, they're waiting, hopefully, to get back online here this this year. I think they're working on permits. Been a while since we caught up, but, um, yeah, I mean, if they get that, uh, uh, uh, if they get that I think it's uh, gutiera, I think it's what it's called they can get that project online. I mean there's going to be some real margin in there with the silver price, especially over 30 bucks. I mean that's something you might be looking at.

Speaker 2: 41:08

So you got to look for those type of catalysts. There's still opportunities in the market, like, not everything's just flying off the shelf. There are companies out there that have not made the move and are waiting for some sort of specific catalyst, uh, in the, in the horizon, that once that hits you're going to see, that's when those moves are going to start happening. So I would just say, pay attention to some of those. You know you. It's still going to be a stock pickers market here. Let me say that, like this isn't the the, the metals prices have not been the tide that rises all boats. It is still a stock picker's market.

Speaker 1: 41:47

All right. So let's explore that part of it, which is how do you even go about identifying where projects are coming out, or that projects that need catalysts? You're not going to get it from the big sell side research firms, right. You're going to have to get really granular to understand where these different companies are mining and exploring and what it takes for them to really grow and expand. So I got to imagine this is somewhat disparate type of sources of information, right, but how do you even get that granular?

Speaker 2: 42:17

Well, of course you listen to Mining Stock Daily, Michael there you go's a podcast, so let's do you know exactly I mean, after almost 3 000 episodes I've I think we've hopefully established that uh.

Speaker 2: 42:33

But yeah, listen like it. There's a lot of companies out there traded uh, exploration companies traded on the venture. I mean far too many of them there should be, um, and you kind of you know, you just gotta do your research and do some digging. I mean, obviously, twitter's a great place, uh, to learn about the mining equities and there's a lot of great information. I would say I owe great amount of the success of the podcast to the Twitter feed and just reading what people are posting and connecting with other people asking questions. So that's a great place to start. There's another great podcast out there including Mining Stock Daily dealer.

Speaker 2: 43:18

My dad, uh, I would plug uh my buddy, antonio with resource talks on youtube. He does a great deep dives with companies. Uh, kai hoffman, uh, with his youtube and podcast. That's sort of financial, so a great job of diving into companies as well. Um, you know, maybe I would, I would, oh, and also, obviously, attending conferences and talking to CEOs.

Speaker 2: 43:43

I mean, this is an industry where the emails and the phone calls and the conference floors are always wide open, like everything's on the table. It doesn't matter who you are. Do not be embarrassed to go up and introduce yourself to a junior mining equity CEO. These are not the Elon Musks of the world. These guys are running, you know, 10 to 100 million dollar market cap companies. So you know, let's put things in perspective and they want to be able to talk about their projects and and market themselves, and so that's. Those phone lines are always open. Uh, there's no question, that's, you know, off the table. Let's no question, that's off the table. Let's just say that.

Speaker 2: 44:25

But you can always start with the macro as well, kind of learn what's moving markets. You see this moving copper. Start digging into copper. The big copper names are obviously flying. There are again specific catalysts happening with other smaller developers that I think are pertinent to be paying attention to. You can do your own judgment. Is it something you should be positioned in, start getting positioned in now, or did you miss the move? That's up to you to decide. But I do see a lot of opportunities still within the sector. Despite these metals making these huge moves, it's still early days. We just have not seen the big moves compared to what we saw, say, 2011. Yeah, I guess I'll just leave it at that.

Speaker 1: 45:25

Does Fed policy matter at this point? Of course, oh god, it killed us. Well, let's expand on that. I say that purposely, right, because yeah, it killed everybody, you know in the national speed, right, but you're not going to have that same speed like you did before. But how sensitive do you think the cycle for're not going to have that same speed like you did before, but how sensitive do you think the cycle for commodities is going to be on a go-forward basis after?

Speaker 2: 45:47

all this. So I would say that's one of the major headwinds I see, and you and I are probably in the same boat when it comes to inflationary expectations. I don't even, despite this week's cpi numbers, economic data that caused the s&p and the nasdaq to go to new all-time highs I'm at a question if that's enough for the federal reserve to to cut. And even if they cut a quarter basis point, I mean they'll probably do it after the election, I would assume now, and then, if maybe they get a second in December we'll see. But is that like? I mean, is that really enough? I mean you got to see this. This data has got to continue to come in softer for those cuts to happen If they come in hotter.

Speaker 2: 46:38

I would generally be more concerned about rate hikes because given the inflationary cyclicality that we saw in the 60s and 70s, it's hard to think that inflation is dead in this year. My concern would be that another cycle of hikes would tamper this commodity cycle, quite like it did the last two years. So we're kind of like waiting in this. I think the market is expecting cuts where there's still a chance that those don't happen. If inflation continues to keep its pesky head. Uh, pertinent. Then can we see hikes, we'll see um. So I do think that's that's the uh, the headwind to be, to acknowledge right, uh, I mean, yeah, so, but if, if the mark, if we do see cuts, uh, maybe it's already priced in the commodity site in these commodity prices, perhaps not, uh, if we see a quarter basis point cut, maybe that is priced in what? If something breaks and they're forced to cut 100 basis points, $2,400 gold is going to be a figment of the past. It's going to fly, and then you'll see that dollar absolutely collapse down to 100, if not further.

Speaker 1: 48:14

Trevor, as we wrap up, I know you mentioned the podcast a few times, but maybe reiterate that for those that want to track you, follow you, where do you point them to? And any sort of last minute pearls of wisdom, gold, right For those that are listening.

Speaker 2: 48:28

Yeah, yeah, mining Stock Daily. You can find it on anywhere. You get your podcasts iTunes, spotify, google Podcasts, all the places. We also have the youtube channel mining stock daily youtube channel. Uh, you can find me on twitter, uh, at trev a hall as well, pretty active on twitter, um. And then the website. There's a couple of them. You can find the full network of podcast and commodity sector at clear commoditynet, and then also the specific mining stock daily website is miningstockdailycom. Uh, I would, I would again. I guess, michael, I don't, maybe you agree with me. I think we're very early this commodity cycle, uh, but this move has been pretty big, pretty quick, and so, like I'm just saying, I just, you know, when those things type of, it's like we got to cool down here just a little bit.

Speaker 1: 49:27

Everybody. Please support Trevor and appreciate those that watched. I'll see you on the next episode of Lead Lag Live. Thank you, Trevor, Appreciate it. Thanks, Michael, Cheers everybody.