S2 E1: Is US Real Estate Ready to Rock and Roll Again in 2024?

What began as the smallest of dovish comments among a broad range of hawkish “Fedspeak” from Chairman Powell in his post-FOMC press conference earlier this month, became a rallying cry for many market participants wanting to celebrate their belief that Fed is positioning itself to REFILL the proverbial monetary "punch bowl“… 
 
 ...and...that the risk-on PARTY has started again, after eighteen months of inflation-induced sobriety. 
 
Already the forward short-term interest rate contracts in the EU, UK, and US, are "pricing-in" CUTS in Policy Rates next year. In the US there is now a chance, small as it may be, that the Fed will cut rates in March. Naturally, this is ludicrous. In fact, the Fed might view the market's thirst for the punch bowl to be refilled as RISK to their fight to tame inflation. The market itself could be the risk point that keeps the Fed tighter, longer, at least until the economy cracks wide open, the odds of which are rising dramatically given the recent macro-data deluge (CPI, Retail Sales, NY Fed). 
 
Plowing back into US equities may not be the optimum play here. The Fed IS likely done hiking, but the focus around the world is NOT on the Fed, as MANY global Central Banks are already cutting rates and easing monetary policy, many of them in Emerging Markets. In terms of investment there are several favorable markets, all are commodity and natural resource producer/exporters who have a trade relationship with China and a currency that has stabilized, and/or broken out to the upside versus the USD. 
 
So rather than be passive and indexed to the US stock market. I would rather focus on non-USD currencies, specific global Bond markets, Emerging market stock indexes, Commodities...and...the Real Estate sector! 

Indeed, I ask, could Real Estate be THE hottest "sector" in 2024? The answer could very well be a resounding YES! 
 
Listen to Episode One of Season Two to learn why I say all this, with the knowledge that ALL of the above alternatives to the US stock market are outperforming the US S+P 500 Index right now, and all of them stand to benefit if the Fed does in fact lighten the pressure on the monetary brakes, “Fedspeak” wise.

Transcript

Inflation Trends and Economic Indicators

Negative Economic Indicators and Investing Strategies

Insights on Investment Opportunities

Speaker 1 0:02

Hi, I'm Greg Weldon. I'm your host for money markets and new age investing and this is episode number one of season two, kicking off our second season. And we're going to start with the. What's happened since the last podcast in terms of the Fed, in terms of the perception that the Fed is kind of signaling that it's done raising interest rates, the degree to which the markets, the forward markets in the short term, interest rate futures are pricing in rate cuts, and it's doing so across the board. Geographically, in the US, the current Fed funds spot market 5.4% For the end of next year, four and a half. You're looking for a 90 basis point decline. Basically, you're looking for three to four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of next year in the US by the Fed. There is some expectation that the first rate could come as early as March, as early as March, and we'll talk about that insanity in a second. In the EU, the three month rate at 408, the end of next year, 322. So you're talking about 75 basis points. Three rate cuts priced in from the ECB for next year and the Bank of England in the short sterling is 540, current spot for the end of this year, december and 466. So you're looking at three 25 basis point rate cuts priced into the markets for next year in the US, europe and the UK. You can see similar things if you wanted to look at the RBNZ in New Zealand, the RBA in Australia, the Bank of Canada and, frankly, you already have rate cuts taking place in a lot of places, like I talked about last episode, that a place like Brazil, for example, has cut rates multiple times already. So this has fostered this kind of mini feeding frenzy in equities. Now I would say, before I get too far ahead of myself, that I find it interesting that this degree of rate cuts is priced into the market and we're, you know, the S&P is not even at new highs. Think about that for a second, so, and then think about well, what if they're not cutting rates by March or June? You remember what happened last time it became evident that they weren't done, which was July, and what happened since then? You know. So in that context, the end of July and through August, humphrey Hawkins specifically. So the degree to which we come now and the question that becomes is this an inflation issue? All right, can inflation come back? And if it does, how does that potentially hamper the Fed, and then no, does it even hamper the Fed and forget that in a second, but it's important to note in the context of where the markets are projecting interest rates to be a year from now Four and a half in the US, three and a quarter in the EU, four and a half in the UK. Let's look at some of the CPI numbers. Everyone celebrated the CPI report which just came out as being, you know, everything kind of accelerated in terms of bond bond prices going higher yields, going lower, dollar down specifically. So in that context, let's look at some of the things from the CPI report. I'm gonna give you a lot of numbers today because it's important, because the facts matter. The numbers are what define, kind of, where we're at, not opinion. I'm not about opinion. I'm about looking at all the numbers, looking at the patterns, putting the pieces together and then forging Some thoughts around what might happen, and it's not what I think will happen. Of course I have an opinion, but it's also what if I'm wrong, whether this happens, or what if this happens, or what if this happens? Because then we thought about it and we kind of have a sense of what we think we would do if that situation plays out. That's really kind of a big part of what we do in terms of managing money. It's not just here's what I think it isn't plow all the money in there. I mean, you know no way, man, cuz you know I could be wrong and it has to be much more Systematic. I'm not a system guy, even though it could be. I'm a math guy but there has to be a methodology to it and, in the context of the interest rate cuts that are priced into the markets all over the place that are driving the action right now and Probably will continue to drive the action, I am not saying that I don't think we can't see that outcome with those interest rates. We could, but there's a lot of things to go through before we get there and that's what the market is not pricing in. All right, let's look at some of the components of CPI that you don't think about, because the thing here is, the Fed kept saying we don't want to have inflation embedded. It's embedded Just by the numbers I'm about to give you. It's embedded because it's in every little nook and cranny. It is like and I did a piece back in 2021 About what the? The great squid, the giant squid there's a name for the giant squid, I can't remember, thought my head but that was the name of the piece and the giant squids inflation. And the ship was the economy and the squid grabs hold of the ship and the tentacles and little suction cups get into every little nook and cranny of the ship, every room, every little. You know the, the hold and the captain's quarters and everywhere. That's inflation being coming embedded. When trash collection is up 6.5 percent. Household operations up 6.7, six and a half for trash a year. You're paying more dental work 4.9. Personal care, excluding cosmetics, toothpaste, the mouthwash and you know anything like that 6.6. You know hair products 6.6. Cigarettes 7.6. Beer 5%. So some people are really hurting there, luckily not me. Wine 5.3. Distilled spirits 7%. The wine and distilled spirits are, if you're out buying them, rent of course, 7.2. That's problematic because rents once a year it's the biggest monthly expense and it's not coming down anytime soon, as you'll Understand when I get to the housing part of today's podcast. Non-prescription drugs up 8.1. Prescription drugs were a point eight for the month, which is almost 8% annualized, over 8% annualized. Pets and pet supplies up 6.5. Men's and boys apparel up 5.3. Shirts up 6.7. Pants and shorts up 8.1. Paper products up 6.3%. All right, hospital visits of 5.6% and it was up 1.1% for the month. All right, you know some of the food items. It's interesting because we talked about this. You know food. A lot of food items came down and have already bottomed and have already started to rise again. And now it's showing up beef up 1.2 for the month. Pork up 1.3 for the month. Automobile insurance up 1.9 for the month, after being up 1.3 in September for the month. Who doesn't have to pay auto insurance, trash collection, dental work, personal care products? I mean, it's in everything clothing, paper products, drugs. In the food category, five out of six at a major grocery groups that the bureau labor statistics, which puts out the inflation numbers, oddly enough published. All right, five out of six were up. Vegetables and fruits was the only single category down. Excuse me, that didn't rise and it was unchanged. All right. Now I love to look at the city inflation numbers and they come out every other month for each city. So there's a rolling certain cities come this month and other cities next month, and the cities that came this month will be two months or now, and so on and so forth. Obviously, most people live in the cities, I mean so this affects the most people. Let's look at some of the changes in the city numbers for October. Since August, two month change San Diego 4.9 up from 4.3. New York, new Jersey, new York city, new Jersey 3.5 up from 2.5. Tampa, st Pete 6.7 up from 5.9. Denver 5.4 up from 4.7. All of these now from here on, after we get to this, I mean 3.5 for Philly up from 3.1, 7.4 for Miami, palm Beach, up from 6.9. Dallas, fort Worth 4.6 up from 4. Riverside, san Bernardino Bernardino burns it. Bernardino, bernardino, no Bernardino, think of the Fragzapa. 4.9 up from 3.9. Washington DC 3.3 up from 1.8. How is Washington DC have like the lowest inflation rate in the country? How is that fair that the politicians in Washington, while they're in Washington, have the lowest inflation in the country? Something's wrong with that picture. The other place would be Houston. Houston 3.0 up from 1.7. The point is these increases are huge on the year of year basis. So I thought that that was just kind of interesting in terms of uh, you know, looking at where people live and all that. So now things that were down energy gas was down 5% for the month. Energy is still down year over year base effect. Because energy has come down on a monthly basis, it's kind of wiped clean some of the base effect. That's a big positive. That's kind of where we, when we get to the strategy part of today's podcast, we'll talk about that. That's why some of the things we kind of play, the reflation play, at least in some places I prefer not equities, but moving costs were down and so were storage costs, self storage. So isn't it interesting? It's in real estate market gets crushed and you know prices are so high that no one can, you know, move that moving and storage costs go down and this affects the. You know the inflation numbers. Import prices came out down 0.8 for the month. They've been. You know they've been down 10 in a row, 10 in a row. This is the biggest month of the client since March down 2% year over year, accelerating lower from down 1.5 and again down 10 in a row in terms of the year over year number. That's import prices. Ppi came out this week down 0.5 for the year. It's the third biggest decline in PPI since the since the 2008, 2009 crisis, the only times we've seen this before, in the pandemic and in 2015. So it's the third worst decline in PPI in 14 years. The core rate at 2.4, 2.3 would be a major breakdown to core PPI All right, core finished goods the lowest since June of 2022 and intermediate demand, service PPI. So service PPI is coming down fast and it had been really high and at 3.5. Intermediate demand for services is still high, but it's the lowest in two years and it's down from 6.9 a year ago and it's down from 4% a month ago at 3.5. Now what's interesting and that a lot of people don't realize, is PPI. When it comes to some of these businesses, it measures the price pressures by the pressure on margins. It's not even really prices, it's margin pressure. So you know you could mistake a really negative PPI number as the the deflation and prices. When it's not, it's crushed margins and that's not good for stocks. So that's what's really interesting here. Let's look at some of the some of the service industries that posted outright deflation because of margin pressure machinery, vehicle wholesaling, apparel, footwear, traveler services, portfolio management, oddly enough healthcare, beauty and personal care, optical goods, rental of retail properties, food wholesaling, ocean freight, ism by the way, noted freight costs coming down too. So that's really interesting to me. This is margin pressure. All these businesses are kind of in deflation because their margins are getting crushed. They can't pass along the price increases of the prices paid, the prices received, and not kept pace. And now it's kind of reversing and so that's interesting. Capacity utilization came out. Normally I wouldn't, you know, I don't pay too much attention to it. And yeah, the automobile strike is going to impact the industrial numbers, no doubt, but this number is expected to rise for the month. It didn't. It fell by five tenths. That's a big decline from 79.4 cap you to 78.9. It's the lowest in February of 2021. It's a full percentage point below the 40 year average Cap you not contributing to inflation. Understanding it's not as big a component of inflation as it used to be. This is still interesting to me because it was expected to rise despite the strike, and it fell in a big way. Just another little tell, that's all All right. Breaking down other data here is interesting because we get some economic data that really show us that you know inflation is embedded. Yes, the year over year and the headline rates have come down and you know. But are they going to get to two and then stay there? And if you know, and they're going to get to two and stay there by the end of June. The Fed is higher longer and they want to. They want to ensure that inflation is defeated and they want pain in the economy before they're going to be even you know, talking about shifting gears. So what has to happen is pain in the economy, pain in the markets. We're getting some of that pain in the economy and, like I said in the last podcast, if you look at the real Fed funds rate and measure that as whether the Fed is tight or loose, all right, the Fed has been. The Fed was loose right up until May of this year. It's only May of this year that the real policy rate got to a restrictive position. So they've only been restricted for like five months. So now you're starting to see the rollover. Right, everyone's like why is the economy not collapsed? Why is the economy not collapsed? It's not going to be a recession? Oh, my god. No, because they, when they started hiking rates, they were this most stimulative real Fed funds policy rate in history. In history, inflation is like 8%. Fed funds rate was still 25 basis points. That's minus 775 real rate, the lowest deepest negative in history, the most stimulative in history. So of course, the economy didn't, you know, hasn't shown the signs of it outside of, you know, mortgages and housing and real estate. Now you're starting to see it, because now they've been restrictive for several months, there's a lag time. You're starting to hit the lag time. It's right in there. Five, six months, you're there. The Philly Fed the entire 2023 spike in the outlook index got really optimistic this year is gone in a matter of three months. All right. And you have the current and the outlook index in the Philly Fed survey, both negative. The last time we saw that 2008, 2008,. Not even in a pandemic Did this get negative. Not even in the tech bubble crash was this negative. It's negative now. All right. The current run of negative numbers in the current, in the current conditions index All right. Only three times have we ever seen this kind of run before 1990, 2000 and 2008. All right. And margin pressure shows up here. And so what happens? Businesses said in the we've seen this in the beige book and in Fed regional surveys businesses are saying we're so hurting, marginals are getting crushed so much we have to try and raise prices. All right. So the Philly Fed the current percentage of firms on the Philly Fed raising their prices received, in other words, for their own goods and when they sell them their final you know price received versus what they're paying to make them. Current number of hiking prices received 21%. Six months from now 46.3%. More than double the number of firms that are raising prices now expect to be raising prices within the next six months. The Fed knows this. I mean they're. You know they're concerned. It's embedded. You do have a base effect coming into play that's not going to be as powerful as it would have been, you know, three months ago because of energies come down. Then we look at the labor market. They're looking for paying the labor market. We have it. Initial claims for unemployment benefits 231,000 in the most recent week. That's up from 218 the week before Big jump on a week to week basis. And the number of people receiving benefits rose 32,000 to 1.865 million. That's up 207,000 in the last eight weeks. 207,000 people now receiving unemployment benefits that eight weeks ago were not. It's above the April high and it's the highest since December of 2021, when it was coming down after the pandemic. How about retail sales? The consumer is strong. Everyone keeps saying that no. The year-to-year rate dropped to two and a half from 4.1. Relative to inflation, that's negative. Further, there's 21 indexes that the Commerce Department breaks down for retail sales. It's going to give you industry sectors like sporting goods, online shopping, eating and drinking establishments, you know, vehicles, so on and so forth. Of the 21 indexes, only three of them showed an increase in the year-of-year rate of change, that's 14%. The rest of them showed declines. All right, only 13 of 21 showed a decline for the month. 13 of 21,. Only four showed declines in September. So you went from 60, from 19% of the sector showing monthly declines to 62% showing monthly declines. Now let me look at it a different way, because if we take the this month's change being October from September and then compare it to last year's September to October sales and let's get a different view of how this year-over-year dynamic is, and let's see what the change was last year in dollar terms and what the change is this year in dollar terms for month-to-month, and compare the two Online sales the increase last year was 277 billion. This year 270 million. That's an 80.2% decline in the growth of online sales. Vehicles last year, 2.73 billion was the increase from September to October. This year was a decrease of 1.29 billion a 4 billion complete flip-flop. Negative reversal in vehicle sales no growth, now deflation or growth to deflation. Eating and drinking establishments and I use online sales and eating and drinking establishments because they're the two most sensitive and robust and resilient discretionary spending sectors. So, online sales, your increase this year 80% below last year's increase. For eating and drinking establishments this year 270 million versus last year 1.5 billion, 81.4% decline. Also, sectors posting reversals of more than 100 million from last year furniture, sporting goods and clothing. I mean that's dramatically bad and broad in its negativity. Alright, not only that, real retail sales the headline number has been negative 8 out of 9 months, 10 out of the last 12. That's only happened once in the last 40 years 2008, 2009. I mean, come on, say the economy is strong. I don't see it All right. So what's the strategy here? What do we do? All right? Do we plow into stocks? Well, for some people, that's what they're doing and I say no, that's not the preferred way for me. I mean, the Fed is not going to be cutting rates, certainly not by March. They're not going to. Okay, they already say we expect pain in labor, we expect pain in the economy, below trend growth for a period of time. So they want to be able to declare victory over inflation. That would require some slowdown demand and they just said that the slowdown in demand may need to be bigger than we thought it would be originally, because the economy has been so robust that he strengthened the economy will cause us to raise rates. What's the biggest risk to inflation right now would be the Fed cutting rates in March. So they're not going to do it. So they want to see that eradicated from the forward market. So they're going to continue to talk hawkishly, all right. But inflation is embedded too. That's not good, all right. It's a 40-year downtrend that is reversed. It's going to be higher. You know it's not. You're getting back down to 2%. I'd say 2% at some point becomes the floor for the target rate, all right. So in that case they're not going to be cutting rates anytime soon. There's no fiscal latitude here, no fiscal latitude whatsoever. You do that. The yield curve is going to pop and the bond market gets whacked. I think the yield curve pops anyway because the Fed acquiesces to higher inflation, keeps short rates lower to support the economy, and I mean two steps down the road and the long end takes the brunt of the inflation and the supply vis-a-vis debt and fiscal deficits dynamic and the curve steepens like crazy. How are you going to invest in a market where the margins are getting crushed? You can't declare inflation over and you know you will cut only if the economy is in recession and the market would have to take us there. So maybe that's the way it has to go. I mean, and you're now pricing and cut and besides tech, info technology, you know, and the NASDAQ, broader markets not making new highs here. And so let's go back to the consumer, because the New York Fed survey was really interesting. They do a survey every month. They could they household survey right, better off versus worse off a year from now. What's the expectation? Let's go back to before the pandemic 2019. All right, what was expected would be much worse off was 12% 11.9. July those expecting worse off 12 months from now 26.6. Now it's 30.9. It's tripled and it's at a new high for this little cycle. It was higher a year ago, but for this it came down and now it's going back up versus the better off in 2019. It was 44%. July it was 29, now it's 28. So we see from July, where it was a plus three positive in better off expectations a year from now. It's minus 2% net. Net. More people think they're gonna be worse off 12 months from now. I mean that's the problem. Are you gonna invest in stocks on that? So what do you do? I'd rather play other places. I really like emerging markets. I mean they've been under pressure, underperformed, the currencies have gotten crushed. All right. They have interest rates that are really high and much higher than inflation, which has come down. So this is the places where they can really cut rates fast, like Brazil, and that will really benefit the markets and if you get the currencies to stabilize, you'll have capital inflow. You had an election over the weekend where a libertarian won in Argentina. Peronists since the 40s. They're gonna dump the central bank, they're gonna dump the peso and this doesn't hurt Brazil. Brazil is one of the places I like. I like the currency there. I like any currency that's emerging market, that has resource or commodity production, especially as net exporters and especially if they are net exporters to China, and especially if it's one of the currencies China would like to include in the new paradigm basket of currencies that will replace the dollar as the means of global trade, like the Brazilian Real Good example. Ewz is the Brazilian stock index ETF. I like that. It's breaking out the Brazilian Real trades, of course, you know, over-the-counter or in the futures market. I like that. There's others that I like in emerging markets in that same vein and this we give to our clients in our, you know, money markets and new age investing portfolio playbook. Okay, because we want to help people and they're gonna have to do things like currencies and emerging markets. Emerging markets should outperform. The ILF is the South American ETF, along with the EWZ, so in that case, I also like the commodity sector. We've talked about this, you know gold. We've talked about that. We've talked about the ag still there soybeans, soib, cane, c-a-n-e. The DBA is the ag commodity ETF. Those are the ETFs Gold, of course, gld and now silver. I see silver at $30,000, but probably gonna be a fast and furious move at some point in the not too distant future. All right, crypto, I mean our call on Bitcoin and Ethereum has paid huge dividends. Hopefully you've participated in that. You know our clients are loving it, both the money management side and the research side. If you're not involved, that's part of our portfolio playbook and part of our overall macro strategy report as well. But how about real estate? Could real estate be the hottest sector in 2024? It very well could be. I don't think mortgage rates are gonna go back up, at least not to the degree they've gone up, that's for sure. I mean, that's almost a mathematical certainty, all right. And when the Fed does cut rates, it's gonna be a feeding frenzy in the housing market. And you don't have enough homes. It is a shortage of supply. So if housing is a commodity market, it is very dramatically undersupplied and this is a shortage where the backwardation, in other words, the premiums you're paying for nearby delivery of a home, are way through the roof. Let's look at the data that just came out, because there's an opportunity here. Building permits still less than 1.5. They're up a little bit for the month, but less than 1.5, which is a seasonally adjusted annual rate, saar All right. So permits less than 1.5 million per year. Starts less than 1.5 million All right. When you go back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, starts have been well above 1.5 million. 1.5 million is the level that is way below what's needed, because you got 40 million more people living in the country now than you did in the 80s. All right, that's just as simple as it gets. Single family home starts are below a million and at the levels that we saw in the 1990s. Not only that, they have been negative relative to like kind of what you would say would be like a five or 10 year average for an entire period from 2007 and below a million from 2007 till 2019. It's 12 years of lost growth in single family home building because of the crisis in 2008 and nine that we just came out of. Then the pandemic hits and now we're just trying to climb out of it and we're not still even out of it. Single family homes under construction right now under construction, currently under construction. Down 15% from last year. Home completions still below a million and down 5% just this past month. No wonder the NAHB survey so negative, even though you would think that for home builders this is nirvana. It's not nirvana because the traffic of prospective buyers is so low, because affordability stinks. I mean it's price and it's mortgage rates. So mortgage rates to come down, price is not going to come down, but at least you'll loosen up the affordability a little bit and you will have the traffic of prospective buyers rise. But right now the traffic of prospective buyers has only been worse at a rate of 21. Is the index All right? It was 43 months ago. There's only three other times it's been worse in November, december, which is typically a seasonally bad month, but doesn't mean it's always bad, but this is so bad. The only other times you've been this bad in November 2022, last year, 2020, 2007, through 11 and 1990. I mean, you know. So how about the builders? The builders have taken off. These stocks are already so hot. They're through the roof. All right, I'm. You know it's like a rock star band right now. The home builders. Let me introduce you to the lead vocalist pultae, international superstar. How about the lead guitarist? You know it's like Led Zeppelin, like Jimmy Page on lead guitar, toll brothers. You got Lenar on drums, you got K and B on bass and there's your rock star band for the home builders. All right, the XHB almost a new highs. The ITB even better. All right, you don't have things that are linked to kind of remodeling and the remodel index is way up, by the way, as I'm gonna use way down. So you see, remodeling has come down. Refinances, of course of collapse, the whole nine yards right, but home building is still there. Itb is the home construction ETF that's outperform the S&P 500 by 30 percent over the last 52 weeks. The XHB is up by 18 percent against the S&P over the last 52 weeks, but those have taken off already. I'm not saying you buy them here, although there's probably still upside, but something like lumber. Lumber gets back about $593 per thousand board feet. That would be a major breakout. Lumber got to $1,700, came down to 260 and is back to 600, and at 600 it would be a record high for any time prior to 2019. See, that's part of the problem with this inflation and people don't understand. You know, even though lumber is down 81 percent from peak from its peak, it's at a level that prior to 2019, for the history of 50 years before that, attracting these commodity prices would have been a record high. Wood is the global timber cut is the US lumber and timber and forestry ETFs. Those are definitely potential buys. Some of the individual shares in there are much better than the index itself. So it may be a stock pickers dynamic. We have thoughts on that too. You can certainly email me at sales at weldononlinecom, sales at weldon wl Do and online one word weldononlinecom, and I will send you reports on Housing or, if you want the metals report, you want the playbook, you know I'll give you a sample of what we do here and give you a better idea. I do kind of and will help you understand some of the things we even talk about in the podcast. I mean the MBB, which would be the mortgage bond ETF kind of bottom. There's a bunch of REITs that look pretty good here with major long-term Uptrend breakouts. I mean they go back to like 2007 eyes that are being broken those downtrends that have been in place now for like 15 years. So it might be the hottest sector out there right now. So we'll see. Email me if you want some more information. We do the global macro strategy report, which is daily and you know with, covers everything all over the world. Also do the portfolio playbook, which is US, stock-centric, covers the sectors, gives various portfolios depending on what kind of investor you are we can't possibly know what everyone's doing out there and then my discretionary portfolio seeking to outperform the S&P 500, which has done tremendously well this year. And then, of course, you know, hit us up on Twitter, which would be money underscore podcast, or you know on Twitter at Money underscore podcast. Or follow me still at Weldon live, which is the former product. We just rebranded it to make all of it consistent with the podcast and a portfolio playbook. So the Weldon live is now the global macro strategy report. You can find me still on Twitter, though, at Weldon live, and definitely check out YouTube. A lot of free stuff on YouTube. A lot of videos. It's Gregory Weldon. User backslash Gregory gregor y Weldon on YouTube. Thanks for listening. Catch you next time on money markets and new age investing you.