Episode 41 - March 2024 Statistics

The latest market report from Pinellas Realtor Organization is the most accurate collection of data available in this micro market!!  Check out the analysis by Julie and David and find out your position in the market.  What's selling?  How long will it take?  Can you get a discount?  Buyer or Seller Market?

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you!

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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David, so happy to be back. I am very happy to be back because we haven't podcasted in two weeks. It's been a while. It has been a little while, but that's okay. We're going back after it. We are, and today's the best day of the month for you because we are going to talk about the monthly statistics. That's right. They came out and they're all about March. March was great for me. I don't know if it was great for everybody, I'm not complaining anymore, so. Complaining rarely gets anywhere. That's true. I'm not much of a complainer, but I did lament about the market and some slowness in my business, which is Definitely picked up. I think that's a general consensus of the market we're seeing a little more normalcy to our seasonal? Effect would you agree? I agree. We're seeing that Spring market happen and it's keeping up with like the spring before last So the march of last year is similar to this march. What's different is the volume of Inventory that's out there. That's The big difference. I feel like the volume of sales it's up, it's up. It's nice. It's spring. That's good. We're seeing it. I do think that the transactions are, fairly difficult. You think they're difficult to? I think there's a lot more negotiation back and forth. Right. I would say it's not easy. I mean, I think people negotiate all the different terms and people want different things. And, you know, there's people asking for repairs or people doing the repairs or, you know, I just think there's a lot of conversation, a lot of negotiation and I think it's because it's a little bit tenuous. I mean, people aren't real sure where the market's headed. Interest rates are high. Insurance costs are Difficult. There are cash buyers out there that are coming in and buying houses paying lots of money and it's, it's great, but some of the finance buyers are getting hurt by that, right? Well, let's introduce ourselves. I'm Julie Jones with RE MAX METRO. And I'm David Vann with the Real Property St. Pete Podcast and RE MAX METRO. So today we're going to talk about the March 2024 Pinellas County statistics. You know last month on our statistics episode We kind of added in some condo statistics, which I appreciate it because I do have a number of condo listings and I think the condo market is definitely a subject of conversation for real estate important to stay on top of but Let's get into it. David. I know you like starting with a single family,. I will say, the overall number of both condos, townhomes and single family homes was interesting only in one particular statistic. And that is that the inventory of the oval all residential market is up 78 and a half percent. So in March of 2023, we had 3, 400 properties for sale. And in March of 24, we have 6, 000 properties for sale. I mean, To go from 3, 400 to 6, 000 properties for sale. That's an 80 percent increase. That means that it's almost doubled if it's 80%, it's a hundred percent, it's double, right? I just think that that number is pretty significant and is worth talking about. So I think so. It's funny cause you've been talking about that for the last few months actually, and that the inventory is building and what that means. So yeah, you know, and it's very micro oriented. I mean, this is. Pinellas County and we work in Pinellas County. We buy and sell properties, you know, every single day in Pinellas County and are involved in those transactions. And I think that, you know, you can look at, I was talking to a guy today in California, whose parents own a home that I'm selling and you know, he talked about what they were talking about on CNBC and I'm like, I mean, that's great. stuff to know from a macro standpoint at 50, 000 feet. But if you're trying to buy a house, you really care what the neighbors sold for. And if you're selling a house, you care what the neighbors sold for as well. Right. So it's such a microcosm of what you're seeing that, you know, at least being focused on the County is, is better. Obviously, if you tune in to buying a property with you or me, I mean, we dig in the neighborhood, right? In similar neighborhoods, right? Yes. Yes. So we get down to the granular level of what the houses are selling for. And, you know, so I think that's, what's great about the podcast is that's what we are promoting is that, you know, having that knowledge is key to making a great deal. So the next statistic on the two are absorption rates. And that's something that I really love to talk about. So in March of 2024, what we found was 2, 500 listings on single family homes versus 1, 536 listings in March of 23. That makes the month supply of inventory. months versus 1. 7 months. And the number of closed sales is actually down 9%. So there were 973 homes sold in March of 24 and 1, 072 homes sold in March of 23. So with sales down and inventory up, You get a result of a month supply of inventory being up 82%. So almost double in the month supply of inventory, 3. 1 months versus 1. 7 months. So we'd love to talk about absorption rate, at least I do. And cause we'd like the way it weighs out inventory versus sales and how that fits to the supply and demand of our market and our inventory. Right. Yes. Yes. So It sets expectations for buyers and sellers to understand how long it might take to sell your property. Right. When you talk about at three months one third of the houses are going to sell this month. Right. So you have a one third likelihood of selling, right? And I like that in a need to sell situation or a timing situation because of relocation or costs carrying a empty property because you've had to move it's something you really need to think about and consider. How long can you do that? Right. Right. I agree. we like those numbers though. The absorption rate numbers. Let's just take a quick peek over to the condo market and see what their absorption rate looks like. It ain't good. Okay. So in the condo market, we're up to six months of inventory. That's 5. 9 months in March of 2024 and 2. 9 months in March of 23. That's a 103 percent increase in the month supply of inventory. So we see that in the. The active listings being up 91 percent 3560 listed condos versus 1863. So again, that's 91 percent almost double in the number of active listings and the sales are down 22 percent or 21. 6 percent in March of 23, we had 807 condos sell in March of 24, we had 633 condos sell. So. That's a pretty big difference in sales and a very big difference in inventory and a doubling of the months Expected to sell your home, right? Do you want to take a tangent and just make a comment about why that is because I have an answer I would love your answer. Oh, you know, it's funny because you're always like, what do you think Julie? And I'm like, what are you talking about? I don't have an answer, but I have an answer for that one Okay, so I have a decent amount of condo listing inventory and I would say that The HOA fees monthly have increased significantly in almost every building I'm involved in and I have beach listings Feather Sound listings, downtown listings, some middle town listings that are at low price points and those HOA fees are extremely high driven by cost of insurance. Right. And what about the reserves requirement? The reserves requirement hasn't had its full impact and that's something to think about if you're thinking of selling your condo, because the milestone inspection has not only a structural inspection component, but also a financial building component to make sure that the reserves are being saved for future improvements or repairs needed. And so the outcome of those studies are not complete. So I think the condos are. Condo market are possibly not seeing the worst of what could happen. Hmm. We had to discuss on the other day about what is the month's supply of inventory? Where the price is really start to fall what happens when there's nine months of inventory yeah. So when we have nine months of inventory, what do you think is going to happen to the pricing? I mean, I think it just depends. Like some of my clients are sitting, just waiting things out, but. You know, that starts to get pretty expensive when your monthly HOA fee is 9. 50 a month and you're not living there. Well, right. But what about those people who are sitting there waiting it out and it doesn't go to three months of inventory, it goes to nine months of inventory. And they're not going to have any choice but to reduce the price to get sold. Right. There's no choice. Unless they want to just continue to own the property, but it could take five years for that to recover. That's a pretty grim reaper comment there. I understand what you're saying, I'm just saying that we've seen it go up. Interest rates are not coming down. HOA fees are not going down. Insurance is not going down. How many of the condos that you're selling are estates or trusts or have been passed down to the next generation, but they don't want them. Probably about 30%. Yeah. So I think there's a significant number of those in place. And so what I've illustrated for my owner is that if you calculate someone putting 20 to 30 percent down payment, which is significant and based on the current interest rate at the listed price that we're at, add in your monthly HOA fee and the reassessed taxes it costs more to own that than it does to rent it. And so in addition, you would have to chunk down 25 or 30 percent to own it. Incentive for buyers. There is a little bit lower. And so anyone who has, you know, some foresight into this information and maybe is thinking about waiting out the sellers and the prices, you might be able to get a pretty good deal. So right now there's at least three to four listings that are, I would say 10 percent below what the last sale was. And that's where they're listed. That's where they're listed. And the showing activity is very low. Hmm. That's interesting. Yep. I've got a condo out on on the Pinellas Bayway and same thing there. We've just had a limited number of showings and we've had a lot of inventory out there on the market. And you know, there's so many price reductions every single day that it's, very significant. We have been talking about is cash buyers and how that is working and I think you found. Some information that was interesting and I did to why don't you share that with us about cash buyers? So mine is actually a little bit more of a us economic forecast and that on the national association of realtors expects the median home prices just to transition from condos to single family homes. That market is different for single family homes. They expect that home prices will increase by. 1. 8 percent in 2024 to a new record, and they also expect that it will go up another 1. 8 percent in 2025. And really, the reason for this is it's in line with consumer price inflation and wage growth over the next two years. There is a very few numbers of sales that are classified as distressed properties. So I think, you know, you have a point on an article that you read from the morning brew that I think is probably the answer to why. Well I think that you also have to keep in mind that 1. 4 percent increase in median value and 1. 8 percent increase in median value in our market overall is pretty low. Pretty low. It's low for what our hyper local market experiences, people who are sitting here waiting for single family home prices to go down. I don't know that that's a great plan. Right. Well, and their inventory is quite a bit lower. Like we just said, three months, this article here says in short, wealthy people, especially those 60 and over looking at the current economy is like looking at A floral sofa. Yeah. So I found this in a daily newsletter that we read in our family. They speak about the big Fed meeting concluded with chairman jerome Powell announcing that interest rates are still not coming down yet. Recurrigitating the same language from the last two interest rate statements. Additionally, the fed announced it will make changes to its bond holdings in a further attempt to slow down economic growth. The biggest obstacle to lowering interest rates. They say in short is the wealthy people, especially those 60 and over looking at the Economy is like looking at a floral sofa. Millennials say yuck and boomers say sweet Since they're most likely the generation to have already paid off a house and a car or two Boomers don't have to worry about borrowing costs like people without those assets do and Two, because they've played the long game in the stock market and have money compounding in the bank, they're indulging in international travel, first class airline and tickets and more. Turns out it's really hard to bring down the price of goods and services when a lot of buyers don't care about the price. Yeah, that's exactly what we're seeing too. We're seeing people come from bigger cities, much more expensive costs of living and moving to a smaller town where it's a little safer and maybe not all the trouble of the big cities and they bring cash, they don't really care about getting a loan. And if a loan is seven or 8%, they're not going to get one. They're just going to pay cash. Okay. So here's the statistic on paying cash. In March of 24, there were 370 people that paid cash out of the 973 sales. That's about a third or better. Last year it was 368. People paid cash on a thousand and seventy two sales So that's significantly higher percentage of people paying cash this year And we are seeing the inventory really ramp up in condos, but it's also ramped up in single family homes. And when that happens, there's a greater chance for a negotiation because there's more to choose from. And we always say that, and we know that that's the case, but when you're out there looking, if you're a buyer. You know, you take the opportunity to take a discount or to take a look at a lot of properties and negotiate and the sellers also negotiate too, but if they can find a buyer, I think they're trying to do it. I'm so hesitant because my experience has been a little bit different. You know, some of my people trying to really take advantage of the negotiation position and the sellers holding firm. So, you know, this inventory situation, days on market, I think will be a tell for what's to come. What do you think about condos? Condos, I I have a very cautious approach. I do think it's very important to keep watching. The inventory and know what your financial situation is, but you know, I have one particular seller who's in a need to sell and it just doesn't matter how much they lower the price. So what we did was we actually looked at sales one to two years ago when the HOA fees were 250 less and lowered our price down into that category. You know, the market in our area has. Increased more than 40 percent in value over the last four to five years and least So if you're in the fortunate situation to have owned for longer than five years You're probably still making out pretty well a lot of equity in the homes I agree and in the condos and you know If you're an older person if you own your condo for 20 or 30 years and you don't have a loan I mean, your carrying costs are just that condo fee. And if it goes up and it's a thousand dollars a month, I mean, that's significant too. So I think the condo situation is you know, a six month absorption rate, and that's pretty long. Will it go to nine? Will prices drop? Nobody knows. Will it go back to three or four or five? Usually I'm not one to predict, but I do believe that we'll continue to see gains in inventory and days on market gains because, you know, we've had a nice spring market, but I do see that as we head into the results, maybe past April. results, but you know, our condo market does tend to slow down in the summer. Well, it's going to be interesting. We're enjoying a spring market right now. We're both very busy, so that's good. And we're putting more stuff under contract and we're closing some deals. It'll be interesting to see what happens as we come out of the spring market and move into summer. So usually we stay away from condo results, but I think we need to keep it on our radar so we can keep you posted and informed on what's going on in that market. And we haven't forgot our price point segregations. We're still, I think a little disappointed in the numbers and we do feel like that the higher price parts of the market behave differently than the lower price of the market. Maybe we should cover that a little more tightly in our next. Episode, I think that sounds like a good plan. All right. Well, thanks for listening. Please subscribe below, follow us, tell your friends and share our QR code. So you can share it with friends. And we look forward to chatting next time. If you have any questions, please send them in and look forward to some new guests on our show. That's exciting. Can't wait for that. I'm Julie Jones and I'm David Vann. With the Real Property St. P podcast. Have a great week. Thank you.