Preseason Primer Series AFC East West

Welcome to another exciting edition of the Pine Pony Podcast! This week, hosts OG and the fantasy uncle dive deep into the NFL Preseason Week 1 and provide a comprehensive breakdown of the AFC East and West divisions. From the controversy around NFL domes to detailed discussions on the upcoming season for teams like the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, and more, we've got it all covered. We'll also highlight key players, important prop bets, and provide fantasy insights. Don't miss our hot takes and predictions for the 2023-2024 NFL season!

Chapters

• 0:57 Debate on NFL Domes
• 7:28 Vikings Injury Woes
• 9:52 New Kickoff Rule Discussion
• 14:05 AFC East Preseason Primer: Bills
• 20:24 AFC East Preseason Primer: Dolphins
• 27:50 AFC East Preseason Primer: Jets
• 35:04 AFC East Preseason Primer: Patriots
• 40:00 AFC West Preseason Primer: Chiefs
• 45:13 AFC West Preseason Primer: Raiders
• 50:53 AFC West Preseason Primer: Chargers
• 57:49 AFC West Preseason Primer: Broncos
• 1:02:36 Preseason Week 1
• 1:11:32 Conclusion and Contact Information

Transcript

0:00

Welcome, welcome, welcome to another edition of the Pine Pony Podcast. It is me, the OG and along as usual, we've got the fantasy uncle. What's happening. Howdy. Howdy. Glad to be back. Hope you're doing well, String. Hope everyone out there in the populace is doing well. Yes, we are all doing well. And this week on the pod, we've got. Preseason primer episode 3 a of C east and west So we're gonna break it down at our predictions for the season give you all the prop bets as usual All the goodies and of course preseason week one We'll talk about that a little bit later. So with that being said Let's start the show

Intro: 0:51

The Pony Pony Podcast.

0:57

So first thing I wanted to bring up was Domes. NFL domes. There's so many domes being built. There's currently ten teams have domes. That's current. There are five teams in various stages of getting a dome, whether that be they've already broke ground and they're just waiting for it to be built, or it. It has been approved or they're waiting on the city to approve finances and figure all that out. One way or another, looking at UKC and Washington, and then as well, the Browns have also entered the fold with the proposal for a dome, and so that could be a total of 16 teams with domes. That's half of the of the league. My issues with domes, man, were taken away. Football as a pure purity. It's like, I get it. Okay. The players could not play a weather. That's great. But they're also going to be nine times out of 10 playing on turf, which is worse. Like you'd never hear about Packers players getting hurt on their own, on Lambeau field, hardly ever it, the same kind of injuries that happened on turf. And. If you know, at what point the, if every team has a dome, then who's, what's home field advantage even look like? Like the bills have a significant home field advantage in that the snow is there and they, and they prove that. And that's why they're not building a dome. The Packers have a significant home field advantage with the cold weather. Miami has a significant home field advantage with, with the opposing team's bench being a hundred degrees and their bench being like 80 so, so, you know, and also the other things that people, you know, things aren't being thought about is could ticket prices go up because now we've got to pay for this 50 million roof, you know, AC, now you're paying for AC, you're paying, I mean, all kinds of various things. So, I mean, unless you're the Panthers, they're the only real team that raises ticket prices for no reason. You know, I just, there's a reason it's because they, they pay coaches five, six, seven year contracts and then fire them the first year. Yeah. He's trying to recoup that somehow. Yeah, so I just, man, I just really hope that we don't go to every team has a dome and then it's kind of like the only real home field advantage you have is quote unquote crowd noise, which if everybody hears crowd noise every time they go to every game away game, it kind of becomes like the NBA where it's like crowd noise. Is it that big of a factor, you know? Cause you just, everything is silent count by then you, you just, anytime you go away, you're just like, all right, we're silent counting it. You know, we're, we're hand drills, you know, hand signals. Yeah, I, I, I guess I don't have a strong take on this just because I get it. Like people want to be able to have their teams or buy tickets for games that That they feel like it's not even going to be affected by the weather. And there's like some sense of stability or security that you can lean on there. And a lot of the players prefer playing in like air, like climate controlled situations or whatever. For me, I would prefer that they kept it outdoors just because some of the randomness with the snow. What if mile high was in indoors? Like you've been to a game there. Like how much, like, Even worse than Mile High is like, when you, when I think of like the Bears versus the Packers, whether it's Chicago or it's at Lambeau, whether it's Chicago or it's at Lambeau, it's like, that's part of the entire History and the tradition is that the weather sometimes is gonna throw you curveballs and you're going to have to adapt to the weather and I think that Tuck rule tuck rule tom brady rule was in a snowy ass game And that was part of the reason that happened Yeah And that's what i'm saying, man weather evens the playing field I think it throws in variables that keep things interesting for everyone. Obviously for the players, they, they have to literally try to put on different cleats. They got to think of what kind of gloves they want to switch off to sometimes and stuff. The coaches obviously want to have like a whole different strategy. And even for the fans, it's like, you don't, you don't always get to see a snow game or a monsoon game or some, something crazy like that or get frostbite at a game. Yeah. You know, you don't always get those opportunities with a clear of a climate controlled, that's not happening. You're not getting frostbite. I get it. So, you know, it's not gonna, it's not going to be a big deal for me. If more and more teams are switching to domes, but me personally, I like how there was more variables with the outdoors weather, you know, it just, it just spice things up every now and then. And. It just made coaches, players, teams, like it's a, it's another level of kind of skill there because at the beginning of the season, you got to play in places like Miami when it's fucking hot, it's really hot. Are you conditioned? Are you, are you ready for that? And then of course on the other side, you got to play in Buffalo in December or something, you know, it's, and I just think that those things are part of the skill gap. And so anyway, that's my take, but I'm against domes. I mean, they look cool. They're great, but I'm against them. So moving on, moving on, the Vikings are in a world of her. This team is just absolutely done. If you look at it that way, I mean, some people thought Sam Darnold is the guy anyway, so it doesn't really matter, but he definitely is now. JJ McCarthy out for the season torn meniscus and Jordan Addison had a scary ankle injury. He's day to day could be week to week. So yeah, he got, he got carted off and Everyone kind of expected the worst, but then it turns out that he's got an ankle injury. Coach is saying that it's actually just no big deal day to day and maybe week to week. I think that he's probably going to serve a three game suspension to start the season. So if he was to get injured right now, I guess would be the most convenient time for that. The J. J. McCarthy thing was, was kind of a wild ride as just a football fan who, who's following the news. It was like, he's complaining of knee soreness, so he's going to get it checked out. That was it. And then it was, oh, he's got a torn meniscus, but He probably has the partial tear partial. He doesn't need a full repair, whatever. So we'll see how long he has to be out. And then just like that, it's like, no full repair done for the season. I'm like, damn that escalated so quickly from a little knee soreness. Yeah. Yeah. They had him throwing the ball, dropping back way too many times. He's like, yo guys. In Michigan, I didn't do that many drop back. Y'all got me going too hard and this is only practice. That's true. That's true, man. Yeah, sucks for the Vikings or I guess let's see. Fortunate or unfortunate. I don't know. I think we still don't have a clear timetable on TJ Hawkinson. It's supposed to be middle of the season, I guess. Yeah. He's probably going to be like, yeah, I'm going to go ahead and Jump on this injury bug. Yeah Yeah, I don't know I mean they still got JJ though a lot of people are Optimistic about Darnold, so we'll see what's bearded Darnold. That's right All right And before we get on to the main topic one last thing I wanted to touch on Was the kickoff the new kickoff rule? I don't know how many of the games you caught Persian, but I caught I caught a few and You It's it was a little confusing at first Because I saw a kick go into the end zone and there was no penalty I thought you you had to kick it in the landing zone, but that's not the case If you kick it in the landing zone, it has to be returned if you kick it in the end zone The player can choose to either not return it and it'd be a touchback or return it just so so Basically, if you want them to return it, you have to kick it into landing zone and anywhere before the landing zone is a penalty, like you know, starting on the 40 is now. So it is interesting. I did see like Malik Washington from Miami had like three different, really good returns. And I think that. The, the way that they had a game plan for it is what a lot of people are going to basically copy pasta around the league. I think that basically teams are going to figure out how to exploit it. And I think that's great because we're going to get a lot better field position. We're going to get some run backs all the way for touchdowns. We're going to, we're just going to get more sort of those big plays that, that excite people. You know, because last year we got to a point where the, the entire kickoff thing just felt like people were tuning out. It was boring. Well, yeah. I mean, especially the way TV does it. It's like, yeah. All right. Touchdown commercial kickoff commercial. It's like, Jesus Christ. Can we, can we just maybe leave the commercials after that sequence of plays? Like touchdown field goal kickoff. Then commercial. Here's what we do. We play the entire game out two and a half hours. And in that last 30 minutes, it's just nonstop commercials. There you go. Or, or even better picture and picture it for me, baby. Give me the game in the little corner box and I'll watch it like that for the next minute and a half while you got some dumb commercial plans. If that's the alternative I'd be down with that what I'm afraid is what they're going to do is they're they're going to have the normal fucking Advertisements and then they're also gonna make you do the picture and picture what I think which I think it's just bullshit Yeah, I don't want both. I would be okay. I would be okay with it if they're like, all right We're not gonna break the action for commercials we're gonna do picture and picture every now and then because we have to you know, make this ad right but You know, that's the trade off. I'd be fine with that because it would be during the kickoff. So it's like it would, it would, you know, it would be during, you know, I mean, even though now the kickoff has changed, it would still be in that kind of quote unquote, you know, nothing going on, you know, touchdown, it's like, Oh, they scored. Okay. Boom. Commercial picture picture with the field goal. And then the kick, right. And then like, by the time the kickoff is happening. You're like coming back from commercial break anyway, so it comes back out the full screen. I'd be fine with that Yeah, I'd be fine with totally with that like every every field goal and kickoff. I mean what 30 second commercial Yeah, anyway, it's a little bit smaller on your screen. It's the kickoff. That's fine, right? Yeah Well, you come back. It'll come back before the kickoff. So really you're just getting like The field goal, which no one. Oh, it'll basically be them doing commentary and shit picture in picture, right? Right. Anyway, That's all the news we got moving on to the main topic Main topic. Hey, you! Let's get into it. First. We're gonna open up the conversation with the Buffalo Bills Man, they lost it. They lost quite a few key pieces this this offseason. They did I don't think this team is going to be as good as previous seasons. They're going to need Keyon Coleman to be ready immediately. And I'm just, I'm not expecting a ton from this offense. They've already come out and said that they want to make things easier for Josh Allen and that they, they you know, just want to get the ball like moving more and things. And that's not Josh Allen's style. Josh Allen likes to run the ball. And he needs to run the ball to be good. So if they have this guy throwing the ball, little dump yard RPOs and shit, Like, and that's all he's doing, I just, I just don't see it being that good. He's like Cam Newton. And anyway, so, record wise, They are, they were 11 6 last year. I've got them falling down to 8 They have the, oh, wow. Yeah, that's right. Low firefighter. That's right. They have the ninth toughest schedule. And key players for me are gonna be Keon Coleman, like I said, Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook. They're gonna need, especially the bottom two, to, to catch some balls and get outta the backfield. And then go ahead what you think and then we'll, we'll talk about prop bits. Yeah, I had'em at nine and eight. So pretty close to you. Just man, you out here bullshit. You're woo whoa under 500. You like right over on the other side? Well, well, my thing is just that I was expecting to be the lowest one. I was like, I'm pretty sure everyone is expecting more of the bills. than I am. And I get it because they've had like four years in a row of competitive play. Right. But I just, I just look at what their team looked like the past few years versus what it looks like this year. And I feel like they have lost some stuff. I think that Even though Stefan Diggs was probably trending down anyways, He was in his prime the last few years and that was a huge part. He was still getting attention. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean it was just such a huge part of their game plan, you know, I, I wasn't a fan of them firing basically scapegoating the previous offensive coordinator. I forgot his name. They were much more run heavy after they did that. And so I expect that's what they're going to do this season. But I just don't love that as a game plan in 2024. It's just their defense is going to have to be really, really good. I think that they're going to take a step back if they want to, if they want to do the run first thing, it's going to backfire without a great defense. And I just I think they're going to be more like a 500 team and I was expecting that to be shocking But of course you've got them below 500. So there you go we are low on the bills this year. Oh, yeah I mean I think the the vegas over under was like 10 and a half or 11 and I was like no way bro I put money on the under obviously, but It's like I just don't see it. I just don't see it Yeah, let me see People are expecting no drop off from them, but I'm just not a big Keon Coleman believer. And like you said, they're going to need, need him to really step in. Yeah. When, when total under, under, over, under be the dude day one, when total over under is 10 and a half. So yeah, see the, I still like the under. Yep. I agree. So profit wise, yeah. I'm looking at Josh Allen total rushing yards five hundred and a half I think he's gonna be under that because Like I said, I think they're gonna try to get the ball out of his hands easier and they're gonna rely on as previously Persian just said James Cook running the ball a lot more and so I also think James Cook will also be a part of that receiving Team as well. Absolutely. And I think he, I think as far as James Cook prop bets futures He'll get two and he's scheduled for two and a half touchdowns receiving. I think he'll kick he'll get three or more He's gotten four or five in the last two seasons. So I think that's an easy one Yeah We think fantasy wise or better one of the things that we sort of saw here preseason week one was that Ray Davis is the second behind James Cook. He is the backup and also he is like the short yardage guy. Now I know last year they, they brought in oh, I'm forgetting his name. They brought in someone to be the, the goal line bag. He ended up getting injured. They basically had a couple different dudes. They really didn't want James Cook to be the short yardage goal line guy. And so basically what I'm saying here is that. If you can find the over under prop for Ray Davis touchdowns, I actually like the over because I think they're going to use him in goal line situations rather than cook. And that's going to be frustrating for, you know, cook owners, but the silver lining is if you've already got money on the the Ray Davis overs for touchdowns. I, I think that his over under for touchdowns is extremely low. I think it was two, maybe two and a half. On DraftKings sports book. And I really liked the over there. What else was against? Oh, yeah, just in general. I really like the fantasy prospects for Dalton Kincaid I think there's a good chance that he just is their number one receiver this year and He is kind of like a first read guy and just gets peppered with targets Like you said I could see them getting the ball out really quickly and a lot of these short Sort of short and intermediate routes for Dalton Kincaid. I think he's gonna eat Absolutely. Absolutely Next team, the Miami Dolphins. This is my division winner this season. I think they go 11 and six, just like they did last year. Strength of schedule is eighth easiest, easy. They're bringing back the whole shebang, the show, all the dudes. They've even drafted defensive players to help. So and, and Chubbs and Phillip are coming back from injuries. This team is absolutely loaded from head to toe with speed and talent. They're going to win the division. The key players for me is the defensive, the defensive side of the ball. Just staying healthy, just, just keeping those guys in rotation. And then, yeah, I'm hot, I'm hot. I like the Dolphins. They could go higher than 11 and six. Yeah, this is this is actually blowing my mind right now because we are we are Right in line with each other so far I literally had them winning the division with 11 and 6 record just like you just said so and we don't we don't exchange notes or anything ahead of time. No, no, no We don't know what we're gonna say. And so this is just like damn. All right yeah, basically what you said, I think they're bringing back all the important pieces From last season, their offense was humming really well until injuries. You know, kind of derailed them. They had Waddle and they had Tyreek Hill out and they had basically nobody else to step up. Right. They had to re rely on guys like River Craycraft and you know, Brax, Braxton Barton Barrios. Yeah. And I mean that. That's just not, and now not only do they get hopefully a healthy Tyreek and a healthy Waddle for the season, but they also drafted a guy that I think is somewhat of a sleeper pick and Malik Washington already mentioned how he, he was showing out in the return game. But also they brought in Odell Beckham who looked pretty decent. In his limited role last year with the ravens I think he's still got a little something in the gas tank, even though he plays a pretty limited sort of role You got shit in the gas tank, bro That dude isn't that dude is not gonna do anything on this team Yeah, and I think it's too bad that they they basically lost vic banjo to the eagles I think that he is a really good defensive coordinator but when it comes to personnel the players that they've brought in I think that they've done a good job of Keeping that That side of the ball with enough talent. So I think that they're just going to be competitive the whole time. The offense is going to be good. Like it usually is. And I like the Jalen Warren pick, you know, if most are, or if Devon, a chain goes down, I think he's going to step in and be that same sort of speedster back that they love. Yeah. I just think a ton of running backs. Yeah, I, I just, I just think they're going to be the best in the division at the end of the day. You know who else to look forward to? Washington. Remember we talked about him a while back between him and Ricky Pearsall. You're a big fan. You're a big fan. Let's remember, let's remember how these seasons are going to go. Yeah, I, I remember you said Taj Washington was definitely better than Ricky Pearsall, so we'll see. We'll see. He did not get drafted better than Ricky Pearsall, but. Neither one of them necessarily had a good landing spot for early opportunity. No, no, not at all. As far as prop bets, I like the Tyreek overs, 1350 and a half receiving yards. There's, he pretty much gets that in his sleep almost every season nine and a half receiving touchdowns, hammer the overs, he's gonna get that. He's gotten like, he's, he's, he's, anytime he's even gotten, not gotten nine, he's gotten like eight or seven, like it's not like two or three. So he's either been really close or he's been over or way over, like last year he had 13. Yeah, I, I am actually going to go with his counterpart there and waddle. I think that most of the. Sort of per route or per play data from last season, which suggests that Jalen water was actually getting just as much usage not just in, in, not just in the targets he was getting, but also he was getting the same sort of down the field usage that Tyreek was getting. And the only problem was that he was just more often injured. And I think that's now being baked into his season long. Props for 2024. And while I think that there's a good chance that Tyreek Hill actually has more raw stats at the end of the year, you can get the waddle season long props for much cheaper. So I just, I just think it, these are not the kind of injuries that are usually like, Oh, he's susceptible to doing that again. They're more like flukes. I think that he's probably going to stay healthy for most of the season this time. And I think that he's, he's going to he's going to make you some money. Yeah. I mean, fantasy wise, Jalen Waddle was, was just as good as any other wide receiver out there. Yeah. I mean, he had over a thousand yards last year. Yeah. When, when he was on the field, he was getting a lot of work. So Yeah. There's no, and it's not like he's a bum who's getting work. He can make plays, you know? So, I mean, I absolutely, I I like it. Yeah. I like, I like that. I like that idea. Jalen Waddle. Yeah. Alright. The, the only thing I would say negative maybe is like. The most are unders for touchdowns. Last year, he got a ton of touchdowns. And so his over under for touchdowns is like 12 or 13 this year. That's high. That's very high. That's like CMC level high. I don't think he's, he's going to run as hot as he did last year. Now that they got Jalen right. Raheem Mostar, a lot of people don't realize he's already 32 years old. I mean, not only do Jesus fucking old guy, get the fuck out of the league already. Golly. The way that the league treats running How's his legs even still running? The way you treat running bags. The way I treat running backs like that, because the NFL treats running backs like that. Okay. And I just think that, yeah, like Devon a chain being one year, more, more comfortable in the system. He's going to get more work. It's likely that. Right. Gets worked in even without any injuries. And so I just don't see most with that same crazy kind of touchdown volume that he had last year. He ran really hot last year. And so I kind of like the unders this year. Makes sense. Makes sense. All right, getting onto the drama, the, the, the, the most controversial team of this division, if you will. The J E T S jets, jets, jets. Yeah, I got it last year. Seven and 10 strength of schedule this year. Fourth easiest schedule. Easy, easier, easier than Miami key play. And I'm holding my record till the end of this key players, Aaron Rogers. That's it. That's the only, cause I know what the rest of the team can do. I know what the defense can do. I know what Brees Hall can do. I know what Garrett Wilson can do. I gotta see Aaron Rodgers get back out on that field and sling the ball. Historically in his latter years, he's come out opening weeks looking rusty. Getting whacked. I mean, we got beat by the Saints. Like, waxed. Then the next year, we got waxed. Yeah, the reality, every offense, every off season is nothing but football. That's why. Yeah. Yeah. It's all nothing but football, nothing but football. I mean, I'm expecting them to win a few games early, but then they've, they, they kind of get a big wall of teams. But also don't be surprised if they lose two teams like Broncos, Patriots, Steelers. So I think they're going to go eight and nine this season. Yeah. What do you think? I, my take is even spicier than that. I got them going seven and 10 once again, I do think that technically speaking, they are going to have an up an upgraded offense. I think that it's going to be. At least a little bit better than it was with Zach Wilson and friends but Last year, they kind of got lucky and they they Their defense literally won them games by taking footballs back for pick sixes and shit like that Fumble sixes and shit like that That usually never repeats. They really, they really were like a four or five win team last year who like lucked their way into seven. I think that they're going to be more like a seven win team. I think they're going to be more like a seven win team this year. Who's just going to get the, the seven that they deserve. I think that when you look at Aaron Rodgers. And you look at quarterbacks, like, how do you predict the sort of fall off? Usually there are signals in the one or two years before the big fall off, and it's just in efficiency metrics, right? And when you look at his final year with the Packers, he really did have a dip. And all the efficiency metrics that you would look at versus his previous two or three years where he was at basically MVP caliber still, well, some people would say that's because he didn't have Devante Adam. Yeah. I'm sure they would, but he had all the players he wanted. That's for sure. He wanted them to sign, but then look at Jordan loves efficiency with the same ragtag wide receivers. He wanted them to bring back, he wanted them to, to make sure Lizard was still around. He, that's the, he, he, he died by his own sword. Okay. I'll tell you that. Hey, look, you're preaching to the choir. And the thing is, is that I. I do think that he's probably not Brady because guess there's just one Brady out there, right? And people like Brady kind of work people's expectations of how quarterbacks perform when they're in their 40s You know what I'm saying? And it's just that He's not just one year removed from A dip in metrics, but he's actually two years now and coming off of a major injury. So I, it's not going to shock me at all. If he's just not that good, he literally, he's just not Aaron Rogers anymore. And I think that there's a, there's a much greater chance of that than most people are sort of baking in right now. So I just like. Pretty much all of his unders expectations, not just for him, but for the jets. I think that they're any sports book you look at, it's going to have their over under double digits, 10 wins, 11 wins, crazy shit like that. I think they're going seven and 10 again, and I think they're going to be a huge disappointment. Their fans are going to be crying. This New York media is going to go absolutely ballistic. Nine and a half is the win total. Oh, is it nine and a half? Okay. It probably has gotten more realistic than I know earlier in the off season. It really was like 10 and a half or 11, I think, but either way, nine and a half, still too much. I like the unders and sorry, any jet fans that may be out there, but you're in for yet another year of disappointment. Yeah. My Prop bets for this team. I actually have Rogers going to be the comeback player of the year because Why not? Like that's just, that's just too perfect for the NFL. And then total passing touchdowns, 27 and a half. I think he's under that. Breeze hall. I have nine, 975 and a half rushing yards total. I think he's going to be over that. Yeah, they, they're really liking breeze hall right now. They he's, he's looking real good. So. Yeah, last season he was coming off of an ACL tear and a lot of people forget that. So he was not getting used as heavily as they really wanted to for the first third, maybe even half of the season. But if you look at the second half of the season, Oh man, not only was he getting like Yes, I have him on fantasy. Not only was he getting like 20 carries a game, but he was getting like seven, eight, nine targets every game. I mean, that's just, that is CMC level workload there. And yeah, I think that the, the 975 is too low also. I, I smashed it over. I think he's going to be more like 1100 yards. Would you say Salah's on the hot seat? Yeah, I think he's a sneaky candidate. I actually did place a bet on him as just a few dollars, but I actually placed the bet on him for first coach to be fired, first head coach to be fired. I think if, if the whole thing is like goes off the rails and they're like, One in four, Oh, and five, something like that. I think that he could be the first one to get let go because expectations, like I said, expectations are sky high right now. And I get it because I, I do agree that they've got a good defense and they've got enough weapons around him that it's, it's basically all going to be on Roger's shoulders. He's, he's either going to be Rogers as we know him. And they'll be really competitive or it's going to be his fault. Yeah. And the media is definitely going to make it his fault. So the last team in the division, the worst team in the division, the once beloved new England Patriots, America's real team record last year was four and 13 this year, I think they get to six and 11 and I'm being generous. They probably won't get there. I don't know. Nothing about this team excites me. They haven't done anything. Drake May is vanilla and he's not even, like, considered the starter right now. He's getting outplayed by Joe fucking Milton. That's the truth. Yeah, like, this is That's the truth. If you read what the beat reporters have been seeing in practice, and then you watch that first preseason game, Drake May does not look comfortable. He threw like a total of three passes. One of them was almost picked off. I mean, it just, he looks like he's not ready for the NFL and for all the, all the flack that Joe Milton cut, he at least looked confident and calm back there. And he threw a couple fucking bombs. I mean that everyone knows he's got a bazooka Joe, they call him, you know, he's got the cannon of an arm. He doesn't, he doesn't necessarily have it all going on here, but I think that we can see Jacoby Brissett, you know, being the starter way, way into the season here. I think Drake may is not even close to being, Oh yeah, a hundred percent. I mean, they also just traded away their Pro Bowl linebacker Judon to the Falcons. So yeah, I mean, he like, is this team tanking? They, well, they tried to resign him, but they didn't want to give him like fair market value apparently. So he's like, look, either, either pay me what I'm worth, you know, or let me go. And so. I think this signals that that they are basically They're telling their fans without coming out and telling their fans that we're not expecting to win this year Otherwise, they they would have brought it back, you know Yeah, and when you and when you look at their schedule, it's the second toughest schedule in the league Yeah I mean they open the league with at the bangles versus the seahawks at the jets at the niners versus the dolphins Versus the texans versus the jaguars versus I mean It's The jets, like they could very well come out of this opening up one, like, Oh, an eight, Oh, a nine. And they got really huge. They got big time question marks on the offensive line too. I mean, it's, it's basically cobbled together from other guys who have gotten let go from other teams because they, they disappointed. So it's, it's not good. You know, PFF released there like ahead of season. Offensive line rankings. And there was only two teams worse than the Patriots. And I just think all these rookie receivers, rookie quarterback that they're expecting to step up, the defense is losing pieces. I don't even know what to think of the coaches. I honestly don't know. They're just huge, huge question marks. And so I think the expectation should be really low. I've got them at five wins just because they're, they're, they're kind of getting the benefit of the doubt there with so many variables, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were like a three or four win team and just like the worst in the league. Yeah, a hundred percent agree. They could be fighting for that number one draft pick. Yeah. But as far as prop bets, I mean, the only one that looks enticing to me and it's only because he's gotten over it every single season he's played. It was Vermont J. Stevenson at four and a half rushing touchdowns. I expected him to get five. I think they're going to use him a lot. They're going to have to. Yeah. I, I like the DeMario Douglas total catches. Or if you could find a targets prop, I think that he is going to be like that, that slot receiver for them. That's going to get tons of these sort of short slant routes, out routes, you know, basically dump offs. They'll even use him like in the screen game and stuff. And also, I think that depending on what, what the actual number that you can get is, because the, I've seen different, like really different numbers here, but if you can get one of the lower numbers on Vermont J Stevenson, pass catching, he, he's a pretty good pass catching back. And I think that they may, because the offensive line is so bad, they may end up doing a lot of dump offs to the running back as well. So, okay. Going to the opposite division, to go into the AFC West, we're going to start out with. The Chiefs and no, we could not get any Chiefs fans on, on the pod this week. So thank God we didn't have to hear their gloating again. Anyway, so their record last year was 11 and six. They have the 12th easiest schedule. So kind of average right in the middle of the pack. Nothing too hard, nothing too easy, but. Right there. I think they're going to get to at least 10 wins. So 10 and seven, cause they, they got some help offensively with the wide receiver, Xavier worthy and the tight end, Jared Wiley out of TCU. So that's going to be huge in the fact that they don't have to rely on MVS and Cadareous Tony, who's probably not going to be on this team at some point in the season, which is, which is crazy. Yeah. And then I think they're going to look at Jared Wiley to kind of be ushered in with Kelsey. I think Kelsey's gonna, I don't know, to me, man, did it just seem like Kelsey's just kind of like aged all of a sudden over in the off season? Like he's talking like an old man. Yeah. I don't know if you're thinking what I'm thinking, but I, I, I saw the interview where he said that he was going to, like, if the plan was to preserve him for later in the season, the playoffs, so that he would be more of like a part time player. And I, I was like, Whoa, because he just signed a huge extension. I wasn't expecting him to say that. But I, I get it. I mean, he has had to play through a lot of injuries the past couple of years. And so, well, jet setting across the globe with Taylor might be taking a toll. It's probably, it's probably wearing them out. Yeah. He's in his thirties. He's a professional football player. Plus he's jet lagging himself. I mean, wait till he gets to 35. He's really going to be sore. Hey, she's going to trade his ass in for a younger football. She's going to do a Leonardo DiCaprio and be like, Oh, 25. You're dumped. Yeah. As far as key players, I really don't have any, man. I mean, this team, I mean, anytime we say we may say them, they show us otherwise. Oh, they showed us that they can do it without wide receivers. It shows us that they can do with wide receivers. I mean, so like, I don't really know, I would not bet on this team at all because I don't know what they're going to do. I just like the prospects as annoying as it is to be a fan of a team that's rivals with the chiefs. And then on top of that, having to have a couple of chiefs. It's, it's not the most it's, it's not the most fun thing to have to say, but the truth is I do expect them to be the class of the AFC and actually have them at 13 and four with the best record in the league. So I just feel like, yeah, they're losing the Jarius need. And that is a big deal, but I think that how explosive that offense is going to be is just going to more than make up for that. You know, they, they still got they still got Trent McDuffie. They still got Chris Jones creating so much havoc, you know, and it's just, they're, they still got Spagnola Spagnola who's just really good at, What's the word working on the fly and you know, keeping, making accommodations for whatever the, the opposing offense is throwing at them. And I just think that, that, yeah, they're going to be really good and they got themselves some legitimate like talent as far as field stretchers and deep threads go. I think that Patrick Mahomes has hinted at. He really wants to go down the field more. And now he's got those kinds of weapons. Hollywood Brown, he did just hurt his shoulder, but it looks like he doesn't need surgery. He might be back for week one. If not, he'll definitely be back. Sometimes in September, you've got Xavier Worthy, who's literally broke the combine 40 record. He can get down the field. field in a hurry, and he looked really good as a prospect out of Texas. I just think that they're just going to have such an upgrade at the wide receiver position that it's just going to move. They're just going to be moving the ball that much better. I like their prospects. I don't think the other teams really took a step forward. I think all the other teams in the division are just kind of. Staying, but, or, or moving toward being, but, you know, so it's just, I just think that it's, it's, it's going to be an easier road than ever for them. And they haven't even needed easy roads lately. So what's the record? I've got them 13 and four. I've got them 13 and four. Yeah, that's actually the most aggressive record I have for any team. So, okay. Going to the Raiders team with the dome. Boo. Their record last year was eight and yeah. And with the stupid fucking flame into the owner. Anyway, the record last year was eight and nine. I have them going seven in 10 with a strength of schedule of the ninth toughest in the league. Huge question mark at quarterback. They currently have five on the roster with their newest signing of Nathan Peterman. I can't believe the guy keeps getting gigs, man. Nathan Pinkerman is just this crazy dude who always, like, he has one of the best reputations. For play when it doesn't matter like in practices They work him out right and and in practice like wow, this guy he's making all the right reads He's doing all the right things But when when he's actually in the game and in the adrenaline's pumping or whatever, it's just pick after pick after pick Yeah, I can't believe I can't believe he keeps getting gigs man. Good for him. Good for whoever the fuck his agent is It's killing it Killing it for me, key players are going to be Devante Adams. He's going to have to have that year where Rogers went down and he made the backup look, look amazing. You know, still getting his thousand yards. He's going to have to have that. And then Brock Bowers, the rookie is going to have to tight end wise. Let's see a repeat of his college form and help out the quarterback. Otherwise, this team is going to be a Pierce has got his work cut out for him. That's for sure. Yeah. I, I have a little bit more of an optimistic take just because I do feel like they were much more competitive after Pierce took over last year. I think that he's going to successfully continue that game plan, which is. Like a lot of running the ball and defense and it just the way that the defense played so tough for him last year. I think that most of those guys are back. I think that they, you know, they, they really do have that sort of classic Raiders, like gritty. We're going to fucking run you over. And that's how we're going to win this game sort of feel like we're not outsmarting anyone over here. We're just going to fucking over our way to the end zone. I think that, like There's something to be said for that. When so many defenses nowadays are just running these really high two, two, two deep cover shells and stuff. And there actually is some, a guy like Pierce can kind of exploit that sometimes. So I think that they are going to be like around 500. I actually had them at nine and eight as the second best team in the division. But. Specifically you brought up Bowers and, you know, one of the things I noticed from preseason week one is that it's not like he's, he's the starter over Michael Mayer. He, he only ran 50 percent of the routes and that's not a good number. And I wasn't a huge fan of this landing spot for him. And I think that kind of like confirms that. They're not just going to do two tight end sets all the time. And even when they do, he's not always going to be the receiving guy. Sometimes he's going to be the block and sometimes Michael Bayer's going to be running routes. And it's just, I, you know, when we look at props for season longs, I like All of the unders for Bowers. He's just got so much hype coming into the league and I get it. He is a hell of a talent as a prospect. You got to love it. But in this situation, it's just one of the worst landing spots for him. Yeah. As far as prop bets. Yeah. I like the bro. I like Devante's yards receiving 11 1, 150 and a half. He is eclipsed that every single season except for two, in both those seasons he didn't even play the full, the full regular season. And he was still like sitting at like 900. So yeah, the guy is a absolute yards machine. Yeah. He, you can guarantee unless he is injured that he's, he's going to get over a thousand yards. Yeah. Yeah. I am scared to pull the trigger on any of his overs just because he's getting to an age where you wouldn't be surprised if he fell off. But I will admit that last year, there was no fall off. Like he was, he was balling his ass off last year. He looked as good as ever. You know, playing with a chip on his shoulder. I feel like he's got something to prove outside of Rogers and that situation. And so I, I see what you're saying. Another, another prop that I was looking at though, is the Zemir white over for just raw yardage. I think that they're going to give him like 20, maybe even like upwards of 25 carries sometimes. And I just think that he's going to rack up the yards, even if the offense isn't that great. I don't necessarily love his like touchdown. The sort of overs because they might just be a bad offense, but I do think he's going to get like that at least like 60, 70 yards a game on the ground. So I, I think that some, some of his projections are a little bit too low. Okay. Next team we got is the chargers. I do not expect much from this group, but they went five and 12 last year. Justin Herbert was injured. Analytics did not do so well. I think they are in full rebuild as most people would, would think with Justin Herbert as being the centerpiece. But their schedule does line up nicely. They don't really have a whole lot of tough teams until mid November. And then at the end is an easy stretch. So. I have them at three and 14 as one of the worst teams in the league with the strength of schedule is the second easiest. I, but you know, they could, they could squeak out a win or two more than that. They could get the five. Yeah. Key players for me is going to be the O line, the whole line. They gotta do, they gotta, they gotta allow Justin Herber and the running backs and all them to cook. Yeah, I, I'm basically in the same spot. I've got him winning six games. But I actually did. I did actually think about five and I was just like, I'll give him six because I, I do think that like John Harbaugh probably is just a good coach and he will have the more competitive. Yeah, I'm always doing that. Jim, John, Jim, John, well, and he's going to have Capra deck on there. Yeah, so is Kaepernick's gonna be like a quarterbacks coach then? Is that what they're doing? I don't know. He just, he offered the position. I don't know if he's gonna be hired or not, if he's like accepted or not. He's gonna be like a silent protest consultant. Oh man, that's fucked up. I want you to tell my players exactly what you did so they know what not to do. No speaking of which, hold on that now I've got to tell the story. So I was in an Uber ride this weekend and, Oh, that was your first mistake. No, go ahead. Yeah, exactly. It was, and this guy. He started talking about Colin Kaepernick and how, like, he doesn't watch NFL ever since that whole situation went down. Not because Colin Kaepernick wasn't in the NFL, but because he was kneeling. Like, he was against the kneeling. And I was just like wow, I don't think I've ever met anybody who like really thought that deeply about it Yeah, I did too actually and what's funny is it was on the other side I I was cab driver Sky gets in my cab and I'm listening to sports radio and they they mentioned caller cat calling Kaepernick in the lawsuit that happened They're like three, four, five years ago, whenever that was. And he said the same thing. He said, I can't believe the NFL lets these guys get away with it. You know, Colin Kaepernick started it, but it's not over. There's other, there's other people that are kneeling out there. And the fact, the fact that they will let them, they have no right to disrespect the country like that. They have no right. I'm just like that is one of the most fundamental rights of the country. Like it's crazy to think that you don't have the right. to protest America because that's what America is all about. Anyway, back, back to football. Okay. As far as it goes with the chargers I I'm not loving the vibes right now. Herbert already is injured. He's dealing with plantar fasciitis. He says, no big deal. Don't worry about it. I'll be there week one. But the thing is that like, As someone who's been playing fantasy football for over a decade now, I've noticed some of these patterns with these injuries and the plantar fasciitis shit doesn't just go away. It fucking lingers around and lingers around. In the NBA, it doesn't go away. It lingers around and lingers around. And so we're already looking at like, all right, he's not going to be 100 percent to start the season how long before he is. And then even if he is, is he going to be able to plant his foot even, even Even if he is a hundred percent, is he going to be able to elevate these guys enough? You know what I mean? Like they're starting, you know, three receivers is Labna Konki, who I love, but he's a rookie Joshua Palmer, and then Brendan Bryce, who's not just a rookie, but he's like a seventh round draft pick who people clowned on the poor guy happens to be Jerry Rice's son. So he, he gets clouded on for being so much worse than Jerry Rice was. But the thing is that. It's just, it's not a, it's not a great spot for them in all the skill positions. I understand they wanted to invest in the offensive line. I think that they've done that. And I think that it actually could be a decent offensive line, but you're looking at a pretty old Gus Edwards JK Dobbins coming up yet another major injury, I just, none of this stuff is really exciting me that much. The most exciting part of it is just in lad McConkie. I think that he's going to. Impress and exceed a lot of his season long props. I like the overs for total catches and total yardage for lad McConkey. I'm not touching any other part of this. I actually like the unders for Herbert. No, I like the unders for Herbert's props. I, I think there's a good chance that he'll just end up missing games and nah. Yeah, so I think the exact opposite for lad McConkey. As much as I love lad McConkey. I have his receiving yards at 775 and a half total receiving yards. And I think he'll go under that just because even if Harbaugh decides to throw the ball more than he did at Michigan in the last three seasons, there's only been two players on the chargers to even go above seven 75 and that's only in two different seasons. So it's. They don't, for whatever reason, they, they don't throw the ball to the receivers a lot in, in historical chargers fashion. All right. Well, let's do it right here, right now. 1 bet. He gets over 775. He gets 775 is what you said, right? Yep. All right. I say he gets over. All right. Did we even keep track of them last year? I feel like we did a whole bunch of them and then forgot about them. I don't know. Anyway moving on. Is it time to talk about the Broncos yet? It is. It is finally time. Our last team of the segment. All right. Let's talk about the Broncos last season. Third record was eight and nine. Strength of schedule is eight toughest. I think this team got a little bit better through the draft and is on an upward trajectory arrow pointing up. However, they start out the gate with a really tough schedule. But for me, Sean Payton is like Mike Tomlin. And even though it's not 500, Sean Payton's teams have never lost, have never gone under seven wins. They've always won seven or more wins per season. So this year, I think they do it again and he's going to go 9 and 8. Not quite the worst team in the division. Key players for me are going to be the running back group. Cause there's so many of them. Defense is going to have to do some work. And Marvin Mims. Marvin Mims is going to, you know, let's see him step up. Right? Yeah, he really needs to step up. Anyway let me, let me say my prop bets and then you can have the floor. Devonta Williams, 250 and a half receiving yards. I think he goes way over that. Sean Payton loves to throw the ball to the running back. And so I think that we'll be doing that out of not only because of his play calls, but out of necessity. So that's all I got. Nay, go Broncos. So we actually are aligned yet again. I had the Broncos nine and eight. The arrows up. Okay. I was feeling not so good, but then I watched the, the, the preseason game. Okay. And it's still an open competition clearly between Stidham and Knicks, but I really liked what I saw from Knicks. He looked very uncomfortable. He looked very uncomfortable. I'll say that part, right? It looked like he had the jitters. It looked like he was kind of. flustered and he was kind of making things harder than it needed to be. He was like making off platform throws when there was no pressure there. Like, what are you doing? Just set your fucking base and throw like a fucking civilized adult, dude. But I will say that despite the fact that he looked like he clearly had the jitters, he was, he was making some good reads. He was placing the ball. Well, he threw a couple like absolute darts. And, you know, I think that, I think he's going to be all right. He he's, he's going to need to, he's going to need to calm down. But one thing that I saw that I was not expecting that I really liked was some design sort of bootleg RPOs. Like I think they're actually going to use him on the ground and that didn't really happen in Oregon. Although he is quick, like he's, you know, he's a fast guy. So, so I think that that's, that's actually kind of exciting because. They didn't do that with Russ that much even though Russ was known for being a successful runner Well, this is an old man Russ though. It's old man Russ. He's not the same Russ, right? And so we got the not quite as old Nicks, although he is pretty old for a rookie Got the Brandon Whedon effect But, despite being so underwhelmed by the starting receivers, currently it's Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Tim Patrick. All of a sudden. Yeah, and I'm cool with Sutton. I thought Sutton actually had the best season of his career last year. I think that he's alright. But then you got Josh Reynolds and Tim Patrick and it's like, where's, where's Marvin Mims? Where's Troy Franklin? I want to see those guys step up. The vibes haven't been great in training camp so far, just keeping it real. I, I, I hope that they can take that step at some point though, because we need that kind of like, you know, Really, really fast, sort of threatened the defense down the field, sort of electric sort of player that we need that in the offense and so, but despite that fact, what I saw was like some pretty cool play designs. I saw, even though it's just the preseason and the defenses are easy to read, they're vanilla stuff. Stock defenses or whatever there was multiple dudes that were getting open every play I kind of like what what peyton's doing with him within the offense and I'm, just basically choosing to be optimistic here So I I don't think they're going to be contenders or anything like that But I think they they just barely squeaked their way above 500. Yep. It should be an interesting year for the broncos So moving into you mentioned you watched the preseason Let's talk a little bit about preseason. Week one, I turned on the Packers and well, it looks like we picked up right where we left off. Jordan Love throws a dime to Donius, Wix, just man, like a 60 beautiful yard touchdown, right? Yep. Yeah, it is great. It is great. The only play that the Wix was in there, you know, and and he get, and he get, and I was just like, man, look at that. Look at that. Christian Watson had two plays. Did nothing. Don Tibby says one 63. I hate, look, look, I think Don Tibby and mix is probably just better. And at some point he wins that job. Okay. A hundred percent, a hundred percent love my trade. You know, who else I noticed within that game got a lot of attention from the backup. Sean Clifford was Bo Melton. Bo Melton was catching the ball quite a bit after 10 yard mark. I mean, he was getting Mr. Reliable written all over him. Yeah. Yeah. So I saw that was interesting. The floor was gassing him up too. Did you see the floor got upset about the, the, who's going to be the number one ride receiver and the floor was, was getting really frustrated. And he was just like, I'm tired of this talk about the number one receiver. He was like, we, we have an entire fucking wide receiver room full of one wide receiver ones, as far as I'm concerned. Like so and so good, so and so. Yeah. He needs to give him the old And what was, give him the old Dabo Sweeney. What was, we got five number ones. What was crazy is that it was actually, Bob Melton was the one that he name checked in there, and he was just like, you know, we, we've got, we've got all these guys. And the one who had the biggest game for us last year was bull Melton. He's not going away either. And I was like, I said, damn, I was like, this is bad. This is bad. We don't want that. And like, yeah, man, for the Packers, that's a good thing. Don't get me wrong. I think rotations can be great, but like for fantasy and you're trying to figure out which guy to pick, fuck man, you don't like rotations. No, no, that's who gives a shit. I'm team over fantasy. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So what else did you, what else did you notice about preseason? Well, I'll just start right there. Unfortunate injury for Marshawn Lloyd. He actually re aggravated the same hamstring injury he had earlier in the off season. That's never a good thing. It's, I, I think this is basically kind of an arrow up for Josh Jacobs. Luckily, he's not needed. I think that, I think that Josh Jacobs is really going to be like a 75 percent or 80 percent touch guy. I think he's going to have a huge opportunity to share in what, what we expect to be a pretty good offense. I, I, I really liked that. Um, another thing I noticed was that the rookie QBs, aside from Drake May, All looked pretty good. I was, I was shocked with how much, you know, last year, this last year, this time there was like kind of mixed results with Bryce young and there was pretty bad play from CJ Stroud. He had a bad pick six that first preseason game. And everyone's like, Oh, he's so bad. He, you know, we all knew he was going to be bad. Look at it. Yeah. Right. But this time around, a lot of guys look like comfortable. Like I said, Nick's didn't look comfortable necessarily, despite getting somewhat good results. And Drake may definitely didn't look comfortable. But I like what I saw from Penix, even though he's, he's not going to be playing anytime soon. I like what I saw from Penix. I like what I saw from Jaden Daniels, especially Caleb Williams. A lot of the sort of raw, sort of physical traits that, People talk about with Caleb Williams, how quick he is in the pocket and how he could throw on the run. He was like in a full sprint and through a dart, like 30 yards down the field to Cole commit. I, it was really impressive throw. And like, basically the, I felt like these rookies were showing off what they can do. Jaden Daniels had a run where he runs for a touchdown and he, he kind of just outruns an entire defense to get to the side and make that, that happen. And you know, rattler even had a hell of a game. Spitzer Rattler. Did he? I actually didn't see any Rattler. He had a pretty good game. One thing I want to mention about all these quarterbacks, and Drake May being the worst one of them, every single one of them is like a junior or senior. Drake May is a redshirt sophomore, so he's the youngest out of You know, all the, the bunch that got drafted. So they're kind of hashtag developmental. Yeah. Hashtag developmental. But I, I thought McCarthy looked pretty good to the vibes. Haven't been great on McCarthy through the, you know, spring training training camp, everything, yada, yada. But I actually thought he, he had some pretty good passes, very unfortunate about the meniscus thing. He's not going to be out there obviously, but Basically, just kind of all of the rookie quarterbacks look good for at least the snaps that they got a couple of things. I thought was noteworthy, though. I noticed that John Dawson was slot only. He was not playing out wide like he was. The previous two seasons and the thing that I think is interesting about that is that There's been a lot of people that have broken down the metrics with Johan Dodson It's like he does much better when he's in the slot. Curtis Samuel was the slot guy previously, but obviously he's in Buffalo now, and I think that this is actually a good thing for Johan Dalton. I think he might have somewhat of a bounce back after a pretty disappointing sophomore year. Boy, it was, I was really interesting to see how the pecking order was going to be for the Texans guys, because they brought in, Stefan digs after really, really impressive seasons from Niko Collins and from tank Dell. And it looks like Dallas, the odd man out whenever they were doing the two receiver sets, Dow was the one that was not on the field. So it looks like it's Collins, Stefan digs. As good as I kept Collins, my keepers. No, in my head. Oh, in a differently, yeah, yeah. In my keeper league. Yeah. Yeah. And I just love Tank de so much as a player, and sure enough, he did score like a, a 43 yard touchdown in that game, but I think that he's going to be the one that's gonna be a little more inconsistent. I, he will certainly have his games where he makes big plays. There's no doubt in my mind. But I think it, it might be hard to kind of. Pick and choose which games those are going to be. I think you're going to either have to decide that you're, he's going to be in your starting lineup and you're going to take this kind of lackluster mag games, or you're just not going to want to spin the wheel and you're going to leave them off your lineup. That's what I think is going to happen. Unfortunately for, he's going to have a very up and down season. Also same thing with the bears receivers. I was interested to see how much run Romo dunes, they would get. Not that much. It was very clear that Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are the guys in the two receiver sets, and they're going to have a lot of the two receiver sets because they're doing the double tight end with Jared, with Gerald Everett and Cole Komet thing. And so Romo Dunze, I really, I, everyone should basically kind of lower their expectations. I think he is going to eventually be a good player, but he's going to kind of have a JSN sort of rookie year where they're, The target competition is just too fierce up top. So those are just things that I really wanted to bring up. Another thing that has nothing to do with fantasy or prop bets or anything, just man, Stetson Bennett. Did you see how bad he looked? I was like, Whoa, he threw, he threw five interceptions. It was four. Officially, because one of the interceptions was called back, but he threw five interceptions and they all looked the same, which is there's a linebacker making it his way over. Towards where you're throwing lane is, and he just doesn't see the linebacker. And I was just like, Ooh, man, not good. Not good stuff from St Georgia. Not good stuff. I know there was a lot of people that kind of had him like, Oh man, he's going to be the guy as soon as as soon as Stafford is out of there. But. Bro, that's Nathan Peterman level shit right there. That's bad. So absolutely we'll see. We'll see about that. Absolutely. Alrighty. Well, there you have it. As always, you can reach us at email address at pine pony podcast, 22 at gmail. com or hit us up on the socials pine pony podcasts. That's all we have. Hasta la pasta. See you preseason week two. Catch you next week. Later.