Pine Pony Podcast
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Pine Pony Podcast
Preseason Primer Series: AFC North South
Welcome to another edition of the Pine Pony Podcast! OG and the Fantasy Uncle are here, bringing you the latest preseason takes and continuing their divisional previews. In this episode, they discuss recent NFL trades, preseason week two highlights, and the upcoming football season's new format. They dive into detailed analyses of the AFC North and South divisions. They also touch on college football's week zero, including the Florida State vs Georgia Tech matchup
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Welcome, welcome, welcome to another edition of the Pine Pony Podcast. Got me, the OG, hanging out with the fantasy uncle. What's happening, Persian? Howdy, howdy. Lots of juggling that each of us had to try to do to make this work last minute. But Hey, you know where there's a will, there's a way, and we have a will. To get the populace, the content that they want. So here you go. We got plenty of preseason takes. We're continuing our series on the divisional previews. So excited to get into another edition with the original strengths. So how you been my friend? Good, good, good, man. You know, just got, got some new exciting opportunities for the pod which not today, but in the near future, we'll have some more information on that. And then also starting football season, we'll be moving to a new format of, of releases. So we'll do a Tuesday night recording and a Wednesday release for the week before games, the like week one, you know, week two, and then we'll also put out a little 20 minute, 30 minute episode for a preview of the next week. So that'll come out on Thursdays, hopefully. Before Thursday night game or Friday before Sunday's game. It'll probably mostly be focused on Sundays, but nonetheless, so we'll have we'll go over some extra content. Yeah. We'll go over some games and then we'll give you what we think about the games coming week. So with that being said. Let's get into the show. The Pony Pony Podcast. Started off with the news this week. We're going to talk about some preseason and the kickoff percentages again. And then also we had a trade go down today. We got Jahan Dotson is headed to the Eagles. It looks like the commanders just said, fuck it and gave up on his ass. Yeah. For a fifth round pick, Johan Datsun and a fifth round pick to the Eagles for a third and two seventh round picks in next year's draft. That's pretty good on the Eagle side. I mean on the commander side, they get, they get loads of picks for next year to, to place with chase Jaden Daniels. And it seems like after last year, John Dotson just, just wasn't worth the squeeze anymore. What do you think about that? Chase? I think that yeah, I think that they've given up on him. Okay. He, the buzz hasn't been great this off season. I was kind of excited because they're moving him to the slot or they were moving him to the slot. But I think what happened was that they couldn't get much out of him. And so kind of as a last ditch effort, they're like, okay, we'll move you to the slot and see if you can work out there. And he's probably just not working out. So they're just like, we'll just see what we can get for him. And I think even though they got to send back a fifth. The fact that they could get a third and two sevenths for someone that they don't plan on actually starting. I think it's pretty good, actually. I think it's pretty good. And I think it makes sense for the Eagles too. They're looking at the guy. This is the first round draft pick just a couple of years ago. His rookie season really was, was pretty solid for rookie. They're thinking, Hey man, it's probably worth it to kick the tires. See what's there. If he could come in and be that third guy, they've kind of been switching through a lot of different guys throughout training camp and pre season, whether it's Quez Watkins or Johnny Wilson, Anaya Smith. I don't think that they've been quite satisfied with that sort of third man in the three receiver sets. And so this, I think probably helps them be a little more confident that they can find a solution there. I like it more for the commanders. Then. For the Eagles, because at this point, I think it is probably likely that John Dodson just isn't the dude we expected him to be right. But Hey. This is pretty interesting. We'll see how it all plays out. I think as far as the commanders are concerned for that second receiving option, I think that they actually have a good, good bit of faith in Luke McCaffrey, CMC's brother got, got drafted by the commanders and yeah. But it ain't going to be like Owen Wilson's brother, Luke, like, you know, how, how many movies is this guy going to have to do before he gets well, you know what I'm saying? Like. Some people don't know who Luke Wilson is. Well, I think that when you, when you listen to the coaches talk about it, I think there's two things that are clear. They still need him to improve in certain ways. But they're also in on him. They, they totally believe they talk a lot about how, how persistent he is, how quick he is to learn the various plays and stuff. And they just really like the attitude that Luke McCaffrey has had. And they expect that he will become that dude eventually for them, that, that second option, at least. Cool. Cool. Well, let's get into preseason week two, what we think about it. Some things that we saw, I personally only watched the Packers Broncos game, and that was pretty abysmal on the Packers side, but we were attempting to get better at run blocking, which was not very good, but the Broncos were going full steam ahead. They played everybody. They wanted to see what they had. And they found out that Bo Nix is indeed the guy there, which I'm excited for, for him and Broncos fans as well. It seems like they've got a guy with a good head on their shoulders, in my opinion, based on what I've seen. Also the Packers, you know, backups wise. We look at a little rough in the quarterback section. I mean, none of those QBs are impressive and I understand that, you know, they are playing again with backup wide receivers and stuff, but one of those backups is Bo Melton and he can catch the damn ball. So if you can't get him the ball and also like tied in wise. I think craft was out there on a couple of plays. Like, yeah, I don't know. I just wasn't impressed with the green base backups in, in any of the offensive capacity, as far as quarterback and running back. So don't get hurt guys. Yeah, I watched the game as well. I got out of work kind of late, so I actually missed. I had to go back and re watch the, the Bo Nix reps. But I see, I see what they, what they like about him. I think that he could probably stand to take some of these guys that are open down the field. He's hesitant to take these down the field shots and I think that that's too bad. That being said, I know how Sean Payton is, and I think he likes Knicks for that quality. He wants Knicks to be conservative, do the same thing he was doing at Oregon, just have a fucking 80 percent completion percentage and just matriculate the ball. You know, every three downs, get another first down sort of idea, strategy that Sean Payton has. And so I, I do understand why he's going to be. You know, starting week one. And I don't know if you specifically mentioned, but they did announce officially that he will be starting week one. And, and for a minute there, it was kind of up in the air that, you know, the buzz from camp was basically that Stidham and Nix both were clearly ahead of Zach Wilson. And that actually Stidham was looking pretty good himself. But when I, when I, when I went back, stinking it up, that's what I was going to say, actually, when I went back and watched this game specifically, it did look to me like Nick's was just better. He was more decisive and he was, he was just, Really accurate with his throws, just these quick snappy decisions. And again, Peyton loves that he's going to lean on that. Nick's a good man. I mean, I agree with your sentiment. I even texted you about it when Nick's was in. It just seemed like the offense was humming. Everybody was on point. Everybody, like even if he had the scramble, like wide receivers were still making themselves available. This and that. When Stidham came in. Not only did the commentary say something about it, but it seemed like everybody was, there was more miscues just like week one preseason. There were more penalties and they were like, it's not that Stidham's not driving the ball. It's just that they're getting dumb penalties or a turnover in the stupidest places. And it's like just more of the same. Where is that when Nix is on the field? Why, why all of a sudden is the team more together? That to me, even if Nix's play wasn't as good as it was. Just the fact that the offense itself, even if Nixon's didn't, we're on the same level, the offense, the feel of the team when he's out there is just better. And I prefer that. Yeah, for sure. I will say this though, as far as just like. The Broncos offense kind of looking good versus the Packers. It seemed pretty obvious to me that the, the Packers were just keeping a very vanilla defensive look. I don't think they were doing anything like what they're going to be doing in the regular season. These were like second, third string guys. And then on top of it, like Sean McVay looks like he was actually, excuse me. Sean Payton looks like he was actually running. The normal, like regular season. Oh, he was, what he was, he was trying to scheme dudes open and stuff. And so it's like, I, I don't know if it's gonna be that easy sledding, you know, in the regular season. I doubt it, but it does make me feel a little bit better about the nick situation. You know the first week I already mentioned on the pod. I felt like he was had the jitters He didn't really look that comfortable. He was much more calm. His feet were set He had a good base for like every single fucking throw I love to see that much much better as far as him just looking like he was calm and comfortable So I think it's arrow up for Nick's as far as that goes we're spending a whole lot of time on the Broncos here. So I'll just go ahead and move along here. You Jalen Warren hurt his hamstring. This is apparently a pretty bad hamstring injury. Probably won't be available for week one of the regular season. And we know that these sort of injuries tend to linger. I think this isn't necessarily the end of Jalen Warren for this season, but I do think that this is an arrow up for Najee. I think it was expected to be something like a 50 50. I think they're probably going to have no choice, but to lean on Najee more. At least early in the season here. I think that's really good for his fantasy outlook for people who are looking to place bets Or just have him on their fantasy team. I think it should be arrow up for him Another thing that I noticed that pains me to say because I i'm i'm just in on the guy lad mcconkey He wasn't, he wasn't out there that much. He was only out there for like 40 percent of the plays. He was off the field and two receiver sets. He only played in three receiver sets. And Greg Roman had a quote after the game, who is their offensive coordinator for the chargers there. And he was saying that what they want to see from a conky is better run blocking. And so probably what's happening is they want the bigger. Better blocking wide receivers out there for the two receiver sets. They're going to be running a lot of 12 personnel, just meeting the extra tight end for blocking. They really want to bully teams with that offensive line. And so as much as I love my conky and I still, I still expect things, good things for him. Eventually it is an arrow down for this season, at least this season. The beginning of the season. He's just not he's not where I thought he would be. I thought he would be just like the number one target in that offense. But if he's only on there for three receiver sets, I have to admit that that's arrow down for him. I mean, we'll see. It's only preseason. So I just kind of like, if I'm, if I'm kind of ranking the, the rookies, which ones are going to hit the ground runner versus which ones aren't you see guys like Brian Thomas, Jr. Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman. Of course, Marv and Malik neighbors. These guys are already like full time starters right now. That's pretty clear to see from the preseason that they already there. So you kind of have to move him down from those guys, at least to start the season. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm just saying, yeah. Did you have any, any specific observations from the preseason week too? No, the only observation that I had mostly, not so much player wise, like I but it is interesting to note that. On the kickoff, 78 percent of kickoffs have been returned this season in the preseason, while 19 percent have ended in a touchback. In 2023, only 22 percent of kickoffs were returned, and 73 percent ended in a touchback. Now that's interesting, that we, it looks like we're going to have more returns, but also Is that just preseason and people just trying to figure it out? And how many cube, how many coaches are just going to say, kick that shit through the end zone? Like, let's just take it out on the 30. We'll take the penalty. Who gives a shit? Because Like the NFL is not like the XFL, you know what I mean? Like that's an experimental league. This is the real deal. And, and coaches are going to look more strategically and against the analytics that I think in the XFL, not to say that they don't do that, but I think these guys have more staff members to devote to those kinds of things. So it'll just be interesting to see what happens in the regular season versus the preseason. I think that number will probably jump back down to more like 50 50, like half of the half of the balls are being returned. So we'll see. Yeah. I think that you kind of hit the nail on the head when you said that the teams are definitely experimenting in the preseason and they're, they're really just trying to figure things out still. So it's, it's probably not a good like indication. I bet by the time like week eight, week nine rolls around, we'll have a better idea of like how the meta is going to kind of settle there. And I, and I agree with you, if I really had to like place bets on it, I bet eventually most teams are just going to try to play it as safe as possible and be like, just give them the 30, just go ahead and give them the 30, whatever. Right, exactly. All right. Well, that's all I got for the news. So let's get up into the main topic, the nitty gritty. Main topic. Hey, you! All right. We're going to start with the AFC North with all the fireworks, with T the division that could be the toughest, one of the toughest divisions in all of the NFL. You can see all four teams could be in the mix. Three teams for sure are going to be in that playoff mix. So we'll see. What happens there, but we're going to start off with the Bengals. This right now, let me, let me make sure I have them as my division winner because of one man, Joe burrow. And as much as I hate this fucking dude with his new date, dyed hair, the, the blonde dyed hair. I can't stand him, but when he is on the field and he is healthy, the Bengals win that division and they've done it twice in a row and he's played the whole season or not in a row, but twice when he's played the whole season. So as long as he's healthy, they're winning that division, especially because they have one of the easiest schedules in that division. They have the sixth easiest out of all NFL teams. I think they're going to go 14 and three. This year, they went nine and eight last year. They went nine and eight last year. I think they'll go 14 and three. Wow. Yeah, that's aggressive. I agree with you though. When I was looking over all of the schedules, that one did stand out to me where it was like, it just seemed like almost every single game was like, yeah, I can see them winning that I can see them winning that, you know what I mean? The toughest part of their schedule is just their interdivisional games, you know, and I, I still think they're probably going to go 500. At least in that as well. So I think when you, when you, when you say like, Oh, I think they're going to go 500 in the division and they're going to go like 80 percent outside of that, then yeah, it's pretty good. I don't have it as aggressive as aggressively as you though. I had him at 12 and five and I thought I might've been higher than you. See, you're really taking a stand on the bangles here. Yeah, man. I mean, Joe, Joe burrow, man. I mean, he's the guy and that team looked good. Looked pretty decent even without him. And I know Jamar chase is got his contract dealing with, but T Higgins is there. T is the man. The one key players that I am looking at actually is T Higgins and Zach Moss. We're going to need Zach Moss to fill in for Joe Mixon. And kind of take over that Joe Mixon role and just. Dominate running back because Joe Mixon, in my opinion, has every season. I doubt him. So, yeah, I think that the running back room might be more productive than we would, we would assume just from the names. Could you look at Zach Mosh chase Brown? These are not big. Exciting names, but I will say that Zach Moss has proven that he's pretty good as the move, the pile guy, the short yardage, just get those tough couple yards, whatever. And then chase Brown out of the backfield as a receiver was really good last season. I mean, I think they drafted him basically to, to play that role. And he showed that he could do that. He's got really nice bursts. He was one of the fastest players on the GPS all last season. And I think that They're going to end up making some pretty splash plays here and there with Chase Brown. I think the main dude will be Zach Moss, but I think he's not that bad. I think, you know, last year, I think through the first six weeks, he had the most rushing yards in the NFL, you know, when Jonathan Taylor wasn't there yet or what have you. And so, you know, if he has a decent line and the line should be theoretically upgraded, we'll see, but looks like they upgraded that line. And so they should have a decent line. Zach Moss can run behind. If he's got holes, he can hit those holes and he can get down field. He could pummel some dudes. But I, I think even more so than that is just what you said. Just the fact that you finally got Burrow, Jamar Chase, T Higgins, healthy, you know, for a while, I thought maybe T Higgins wouldn't come back, but it looks like he is definitely coming back. You know, they're going to be contenders. They're going to make a run. I like it. It remains to be seen what the sort of changes on defense will add up to, but I think that offense is going to keep them competitive either way. Yeah. Agreed. So as far as prop bets for me, I've got Joe Burrow, potentially a comeback of the year candidate, comeback player of the year candidate. However though, I do think 4, 000 and a half passing yards is a little too high. Just considering Jamar Chase might not be there in the first week. Just not sure what's going on with all that and how many games will it take Joe Burrow to get back in the mix. So I think he'll get close, but I think he'll be under 4, 000 yards passing T Higgins, 875 and a half yards. I think he'll be over just simply because Jamar Chase might not be out on the field and he might be the, the, the guy. And then Zach Moss. 900 rushing yards. I think he'll get over that. So that's what I'm thinking bet wise for the Bengals futures. Yeah. I like the Joe Burrow overs. I just think that He's got his two main guys. Finally, he's healthy to start a season. I think there's a good chance that he just plays most of these games. And so I think he hits the over on touchdowns, on yardage. I really particularly like his Like MVP odds, if you got a place that, you know, Joe burrow for MVP, I saw it on one site, 12 to one, and I saw another site, 16 to one, if you can get 16 to one, man, that's great. I mean, if you think there's 32 starting quarterbacks and. You know, it was they all got a 31, 32 to one chance. And he's got a 16 to one chance. They're saying basically that he would be like an average shot. Nah, he's above average shot to win the MVP. I think if you can get 16 to one, that's great. Even 12 to one, I would hop on that. I think that, you know, if they, if they do go. Even 12 and five, which is I'm predicting, but certainly if they go 14 and three, there's a really good chance that Joe Burrows in that MVP discussion, even if he doesn't look like his best self, just because we know how MVP goes, the team that's winning, usually the quarterback is the MVP. Right. Well, Aaron Rodgers has something to say about that. True. I mean, that is true. Okay. Moving to the Ravens. You know this team, they took a hit on defense. They lost a few guys from Patrick Queen and Gino Stone. Offensively, I am not worried about this team. They added Derek Henry to the squad. I think that's a huge, huge upside for them. And just Lamar Jackson's back. He's a baller. All, all the boys are back in town offensively. The, the schedule, however, is pretty tough for them. They've got one of the harder schedules in the league. Fourth hardest record wise. They went 13 and four last year. I think they'll get close to that, but there'll be 12 and five this year. What do you, what do you think about the Ravens? I have them arrow down just a bit. I do think they're going to be a competitive team. I'm not big on the Derek Henry thing. I I've already spoken about this before, so I'll keep it brief, but they lost like three different important pieces off of that offensive line. And it was like the better pieces. They brought in some really old dudes who are way past their peak to try to fill those gaps there. And I just don't think that offensive line is actually going to be that good. I think as far as Lamar's concerned, he can still make plays under pressure. So it's not going to be a huge deal for him necessarily. But I think the offensive, I think that the running game is going to struggle. I mean, Derek Henry has taken so many carries over the past decade. And He's old, you know, I mean for someone with that much wear and tear it would not be shocking if he finally lost the step I'll give him credit. He's been a beast despite being an older back He's still gotten it done the past couple years But I think that that this is finally where he falls off I think that offensive line does kind of fall apart a little bit on them. So I've got them winning 10 games Last year they won 12 and they were a very competitive team, but I think the defense will remain stout, but I don't think the offense is going to click as well as it normally does. That's, that's what I'm hoping. 10 7. 10 7. Yeah, and I like all of the Derrick Henry unders. I, yeah. Nine hundred and ninety, nine hundred and ninety three and a half Russian yards. Yeah. I do not have, even if he was peak Derrick Henry, just that team isn't like, he's not gonna get that because Lamar Jackson's gonna eat up a lot of that. Right, right. I mean, Lamar Jackson will vulture some of the Russian tds and. If that offensive line is not opening up holes, it doesn't matter who you are, you're not going to get to 990 yards. You know what I mean? It's just right. Agreed. Agreed. So that was my prop bet. And key player was Derek Henry and on the under for rushing yards. So you, you fucking hit that right on the head, man. Moving on over to my favorite team of this division, the fighting Mike Tomlins, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Record last year was 10 and seven. Unfortunately this year, I think they're going to go nine and eight just because I refuse, I refuse. Realistically, when I look at their schedule, I had them under 500, but I said, no, no, no, no Tomlin is going to win a game or two that they're not supposed to fucking supposed to. And he's going to get this team above 900 at nine and eight. Again, they have one of this whole division has a really tough schedule, mainly because they play each other. Right. Right. So, man, I don't know what to think about Russell Wilson. I think Justin Fields gives this team the better shot at winning than Russell Wilson. Will he get, for whatever reason, I think Russell Wilson is going to be the starter. And this team. I think Russell Wilson is broken and I don't, just quarterback is a huge question mark. I don't really care for either one of these guys, Justin Fields. It's just, he's not accurate. So I just, I don't know what to say about them, but they're going to be nine and eight. And I like all the Russell Wilson unders. So yeah, I did the exact same thing. I was laughing as you said it. Cause I did the exact same thing where I was, I was looking at the team. I was looking at the schedule. I'm looking at what changed offensively, defensively, you know, and, and I'm just like, how do I get, how do I get this team to nine and eight because I'm not putting them less than nine and eight because Tomlin always finds a way, as I've said before, he's got a stash of magic beans and one way or the other. He gets above 500. And so. I'm, I'm saying they get nine and eight, even though I'm arrowed down on the steam, that's what I'm telling you. I'll just leave it at that. Okay. I do think there's a, there's still a possibility that they land IU, which would be huge for them that would make that projection so much easier, but I'm saying nine and eight, and I'm admitting to you that, that it's, it's for magic beans reasons that being said, that being said, I will. I will say that the one bet I am comfortable making on the over here is the Pat Friar Muth overs. I think that they're going to have no choice but to have him be the second option in the receiving game. And currently in most places, his over unders are very low for touchdowns, for yardage, just I like all the overs there. I think he gets those things easily. I think people forget that he was really injured last season. Just two seasons ago, he had a hundred targets as a tight end. He's not bad. No, no, I don't think anyone, I mean, currently they're currently their wide receiver to his van Jefferson, which is not good. Not good. Yeah. I mean, well, look at the second half of this schedule, starting with week 11. Ravens. At Browns, at Bengals, Browns at home, at Eagles, at Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, at home, Bengals, at home. Wow. It's rough. It's rough. That's why I say I, it's just magic. I just believe in his magic. Yep. I refuse. I refuse to, I refuse to bet against him. So I'm not doing it. I'm just not doing it. Yep. I won't do it either. That's my guy. Okay, and then the most conundrum of a team, the Browns, one of the best teams to be assembled with wide receivers. I mean, they've got every fucking position is filled. There should be, I mean, realistically, if you look at this team, they should be up there with the Bengals around 14 wins, 13 wins, but no. They're not. And I've been beating this fucking drum and I'm going to keep beating it. Kevin Stefanski is a terrible head coach. I don't care. I don't care. I don't care what he did with Joe Flacco. I don't care what he did with fucking DRDTR in the second half of that season. I don't care. He cannot coach in playoff games. He's been to the playoffs at least two times. And both times have been abysmal fucking games from him as a coach. This team is destined to be, it's almost like the Bengals back in the day when they had Carson Palmer and all those guys, and it was like, they just kept that same fucking guy as a coach. I can't remember his name for whatever reason, but you know who I'm talking about. And it was like, Oh, we're just going to keep it. And he would get them to the playoffs and then lose. And eventually you've got to find a different guy to get over that hump. Andy Reid and Wait, are you talking about Bruce Arians? Is that the guy? No, no. In The Bengals. It's like Raheem, not Raheem Morris, but it's, I can't remember his name. I can't remember the guy's name. But he was there for a long time, like nineties, two thousands. Like he was there for Palmer. I know you're talking about. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I can't think of his name, but I, yeah. Okay. But anyway, the point is, is several coaches are, were had long tenure stances at these like Eagles. Andy Reed was there for the Eagles. He couldn't get them over the hump. He can get them in the playoffs, but for whatever reason, he just could not get. And when the Superbowl, now he's doing that with the chiefs, which is fine. And sometimes you just need a change of scenery, but I'm, I'm, I'm over this team, having all of these players and just being worthless. So last year, even with Joe Flacco being good, they were benefactors of the Bengals, not having Joe burrow of the Steelers being trash. So I think a lot of their wins came from just. Other teams being shitty. And so I think their record last year, 11 to six was a little too high, even though I want it to be higher. I desperately want this team to win, but they just can't. So I think they're going to be nine and eight this season. They're going to be worse off than they were last year. And all of, they have the hardest schedule and all of this is going to fall on Deshaun Watson, who I once loved. But if he doesn't fucking come to play this year, this team is going to be hurting and it's going to be all on him. And I think if that does, if they don't get it, if they don't, I don't, I don't know what to do, but if they don't make it somewhere, Stefanski needs to be fired and they need to eat that fucking Deshaun Watson contract. That's how I feel about this team. Yeah, I, this one might've been the hardest one for me to try to project to come up with a wind total, man. I could see so many different. They just have such a wide range of possibilities. You know what I mean? It, for me, I think most of it really does come down to Deshaun Watson. Does he truly still have that old Deshaun in him? Is it gone for good? Is it, you know, I just don't know. It seems like such a big question mark. And he kind of has excuses because so many injuries. The past couple years it's like maybe he really is going to turn it on You know, he's gonna be that guy and their team's gonna click I agree with you that they have a pretty complete team I think maybe the one position group that you could you know nitpick with is the the running backs You know, they don't have chubb. We don't know when he's coming back A lot of people got to roam forward Yeah, but Jerome Ford is like, he balled out last year. Are you kidding me? I don't, I don't know. He's an easy stopgap. He's an easy stopgap. I think he's like Devin Singletary, Zach Moss. He's all right. You know, they do have a good offensive line. Sure, but he can do enough. He can do enough to get, to get play action going, to get all these other things that, that the run game needs to do. He's not horrible. That's what I'm saying though, is that even their worst position group, it's not horrible. You know, they do have a pretty complete team. I think last year they ended up getting a lot of wins straight up from their defense where their defense is arguably the best in the league and the defense was, was scoring fumble sixes and shit for them. I mean, just big time wins defensively for them. And I don't know if they're going to be able to get that kind of elite play from their defense again. Maybe, we'll see, but I definitely got them arrowed down and I feel like someone is going to be the odd man out in this division. And I've just settled on the fact that it's going to be the Browns. I Again, they're, they're really hard for me to project, but I'm just going to say that they're, they're seven and 10, because I think that they, they end up getting beat up by the other division mates here and ultimately they disappoint. I could see them pulling Broncos and just eating that Deshaun contract and moving on from him, just forcing the move. And of course the fancy is going to be on the hot seat if they're, if they're below 500, a whole bunch of shakeups. I bet after this season, but I will admit that there is a universe where they're actually just really good. And they are a contender because the defense is going to be good. It's all up to Deshaun. In my opinion, it's going to be up to Deshaun. With that being said, I really like Njoku to get over four and a half touchdowns this season. He seems to be a touchdown magnet sometimes. And again, Deshaun Watson, he could potentially be a comeback player of the year candidate. I like his rushing touchdowns at two and a half on the season. That seems very low. I have even like a not perfect Deshaun could get three. Absolutely. Do you have anything in prop it was for that? Yeah, I was actually going to do the same thing that Deshaun Watson, both for the rushing touchdowns and for the rushing yardage. I think we forget. How often he runs and he might not run quite as much as he did his first couple of seasons, but he still runs at a pretty good rate. He just hasn't been healthy. Hasn't been out there that much for us to really realize that. But yeah, I think that the overs on, especially the rushing touchdowns, but even just the rushing yardage, I think he's going to get over that as long as he stays healthy. Right, moving on to the next division, the AFC South, which is a spicy division as well. Got quite a few teams Titans kind of, we don't care about them. They're going to be trash, but the rest of that division, let's start with the Texans. This is going to be my division winner, but it's not going to be by a lot. It's going to be hard. Last year, they were 10 and seven this year. I think they're going to go 11 and six seventh hardest schedule, but they picked up Stefan digs. And I know he can be a drama queen, but most wide receivers are, and at least the first season, he won't be a drama queen. And as you said earlier, they've got Nico Collins, tank Dell, tank Dell being on the outside, looking in as far as three, two wide receiver sets, but. Injuries could happen and he could be right back in there, which is a nice mix to have. They've got three legit wide receivers, in my opinion. So I am really high on the Texans, CJ Stroud, D'Amico Ryan, that whole team. I I'm, I'm loving that squad right now. So yeah, what'd you think? Yeah, I do. I love the squad. I will say though, I think that the whole, the point you were making where he'll at least be happy the first season or whatever. I don't think that's necessarily true. That first preseason game, he was already bitching on the sideline. They had a huge, like, 45 yard touchdown pass to Tank Dell. And Diggs is on the sideline, like, barking to the coaches or whatever, not necessarily to Stroud himself, but he was pissed off or whatever, and then I guess people that were down on the field, they were saying that he was, he was like, I was open two plays in a row, why isn't he looking for me? Like, bro, he's all ready with the bullshit. He's all ready with the bullshit. He thinks that he needs to be the wide receiver one. He's The first read on every play like dude, I'm telling you, man, I think Stefan Diggs is, is a trap. I would not be signing him and paying him if he was on my team. You know what I mean? I just wouldn't do it. I, yeah, he's, he's still decent, but bro, no. At any rate, I, I do love the outlook for this team. I think that they have added a lot on defense. D'Amico knows how to scheme up defense. I feel like he got a lot out of A pretty not so talented squad defensively last year. Absolutely. No reason to believe the offense has taken a step back. So you, you got to think it's arrow up for this team. I've got them all the way at 12 and five, you know, I think last year they won nine or 10. And you know, so I've got them considerably. Yeah, I, I've got them considerably better. I actually thought about having them at 13 and four, but I, I I think I'm just going to keep them at 12 and 5 here. There you go. As far as prop bets for me, I like Nico Collins getting the over on 950 receiving yards. It'll be close, but I think he'll get over it. All right, let's move on to the Jaguars. One of the teams getting a new stadium, Dome. Hope they don't get rid of the pools. They went nine and eight last year. I'm not impressed with what this team did off season. I thought Trevor made a lot of mistakes last year. So he'll need to clean that up. The wide receiver position is looking scary in a bad way. Like Gabriel Davis is, is just, I'm not high on him. What else is on there? I mean, pretty much just got Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram. As guys you could actually rely on, but I don't think either of those guys are actually like top tier players. They're good players, but they're not like top tier players. They got Brian Thomas jr. Who's already like a full time starter. But the truth is that he's a question mark. Maybe he'll be a big deal and he'll be actually a great player. They did take him in the first round. So we'll see. But I think that there's just question marks all over the place with this team. And it's hard, it's kind of hard to project them. It certainly is hard to be feel confident in them. Yeah. I mean, I'm not confident at all. They don't even have that tough of a schedule. They're middle of the pack 14. I mean, ETN to me right now is their best player even over T Law. So he's going to get his, I just, the only reason why I don't have them in last place in this division is because I think the Titans are going to be so bad. Yeah, I got them at seven and 10. I got, I got the Jaguars at seven and 10 with key players being Trevor Lawrence in their defense. Yeah, we are actually pretty similar on this as well. I think the best thing they've got going for them is that, that pass rush with Josh Allen and company defensive Josh but you know, just. Again, it's just too many question marks for me to feel confident. I thought their schedule was actually one of the easier ones. In my opinion, you know, you said it was about average. I think it's actually a little bit better than average, which is why I have them at eight and nine. I actually was thinking about, you know, like seven and ten, but I think that they've got a kind of an easier road than most teams do. And so, yeah, I just settled on eight and nine. I think basically, basically it's going to be arrowed down at least a little bit for them. And I hate to say that because I I've always liked Peterson, but he hasn't been able to make the kind of magic that he was making with Nick Foles and those other guys back in the day. I just don't think that it's the same NFL. And I think he. He hasn't been able to adapt to the way defenses play as well as some other coaches have. Absolutely. Prop bets for me, I've got ETN over 900 rushing yards. I feel like that's, he should be able to get that. That's going to be the main source of, of them moving the ball. And it has been since he's been healthy, I think. So I'm excited to watch him play. I, this team is going to be interesting. We shall see anything you like in for them. Yeah. Eben Ingram. I feel like people didn't realize last year that not only did Eben Ingram have triple digit targets, but he just led all tight ends and targets last year. And then they lose Zayne Jones. They lose Calvin Ridley. They bring in Gabriel Davis, who is mostly like a fucking blocking guy and just a field stretcher, right? He's like a decoy or some shit. And again, the question mark of Brian Thomas. I don't think there's any reason to believe that they're not going to be leaning on Evan Ingram again, you know, but a lot of his catch props, like. You know, season long props for catches are just kind of low. They're in the fifties, the sixties. I think he, he easily is in the seventies. He might be in the eighties. Cause not only will he be getting a hundred targets, but a lot of these are just the short to intermediate routes, easier to catch has a higher completion percentage inherently. So I really love the catches. And the yardage too, I think is pretty good season long, but especially if you can get the targets or the catches, they're going to lean on him again. There's no reason to think they're going away from him. Absolutely. Absolutely. I love that Evan Ingram pick moving on to the Indianapolis Colts who did okay last year, they went nine and eight. I've got arrow pointing up for them. I originally had them a little lower as far as record wise, just like one game. But I've gotten them winning 10 games, seven losses just because I think the Texans are going to find a way to outplay them and the Colts are going to lose a game here or there just weird stuff. But they do have a seventh easiest schedule, but I, as if you remember last year on the pod, I was calling his name and he should have been the number one pick. Anthony Richardson is back. He's back. He's got Michael Pittman Jr. Jonathan Taylor's there. This offense is absolutely stacked and I expect them to play that way for most of the season. I think their toughest games are going to be some of the division games. Being the Texans and even the Jaguars are going to give them, give them problems. So those will be, that's where I think a couple of their losses come from. They've got the dolphins and the, the bills the, the Viking, they got a Vikings game, but I'm not, I don't, I think they'll blow them out. But anyway, I think prop bets wise, key player wise for me is Anthony Richardson. For 3, 300 yards, he'll go over that and Michael Pittman Jr. For four and a half touchdowns. I think he'll get more than that. Yeah. I like what you think about the Colts. I like the Pittman called there. The Colts in general, I know the one that's like, they're really up in the air, it, it really was a small sample size we got out of Richardson last season. So I. It's kind of like I want to, I want to, I want to take it with a grain of salt. That being said, I liked what I saw. You shouldn't do that. Yeah. Okay. I obviously know quarterbacks, Jordan love. Hello. I've been behind him. Anthony Richardson, but behind him. Yeah, yeah, you did. You did. You were, you were all in on Jordan Love and he ended up. He ended up winning me over as well. So I'll give you credit for that. I think that more than anything, I just believe in Shane's stiking. I like what he did with Gardner Minshew when Anthony Richardson went down. But of course, before that, when Anthony, when Anthony Richardson was in there, he was moving the ball really well, getting chunk plays, he was scheming guys open for Anthony Richardson, but also he was doing a good job of using his legs. Really smartly. You know, he, he. scored four different rushing touchdowns. And I mean, he was just getting lots of space for Anthony Richardson to just run and make plays. He is a huge human being who's electric. You know, he's, he's like Cam Newton. If Cam Newton was actually a little bit taller, which is nuts to say, and you know, it's, it's, it's a sky high ceiling I think there's, there's still a little bit of question marks of how good is he going to be as a pocket passer? But, you know, I do like what I saw and the defense was actually above average last year. They didn't lose a bunch of pieces. So I think that they will, they'll remain decent. I think that their, their schedule is a little bit average. I didn't think it was necessarily easier or harder, but when it all came out, I just figured. That nine wins was a good spot for them. Nine and eight. I think there'll be in the playoff hunt, but I don't think they're going to be one of the top contending teams. The AFC just has several really good top contending teams already established there. But I like, I like the potential here though. I do think that there's a really high ceiling for this team. I like that Josh Downs, what he showed last year coming into his second season. Now he is dealing with a high ankle sprain right now. That's annoying. But eventually when he gets healthy, I think not only is he going to be a good player, but we've already seen what Michael Pittman can do. And the buzz has been really good for A. D. Mitchell. There, you know, a lot of people thought A. D. Mitchell would go on the first round. He fell to the third round. Concerns about the way he handles his own diabetes, but everything so far has been like, he's been really healthy. He's been out there making plays. I think that he also has a really high potential to be a game wrecking sort of field stretching, big play guy. And of course, Anthony Richardson has the arm. Like if you get open 50 yards down the field, Anthony Richardson can throw it 50 yards down the field. Yes. I love, I love the, the potential for 80 Mitchell just have huge 60 yard touchdowns and shit like that. It'd be fun to watch. Absolutely. And moving on to the last team. The worst team of the division. This team, despite the names that you see on this depth chart are not going to be very good. Calvin Ridley, not very good in my opinion. DeAndre Hopkins. He's great, but he's old. Tyler Boyd, he's probably the best wide receiver on this team, and he was the third wide receiver on the Bengals. Tony Pollard, that was a great pickup for them considering they lost Derrick Henry. I like what they did with J. C. Latham in the draft and trying to help out the offensive line. I just have zero trust in Will Levis. Last year, he threw four touchdowns on his first game and then through four touchdowns over the last eight games. And he had DeAndre Hopkins on the team. Like, so and Derrick Henry. So I'm just not impressed with this team. I think that with the new coach, they've got a super tough schedule, six hardest schedule in the, in the league. And all I see is a bunch of names on the roster. I don't actually see players. So record for me is three and 14. They went six and 11 last year. And for me, yeah, yeah. Key players for me are no one because they're fucking rebuilding. This is a full rebuild disguised as a, we're going to try to play it out, but bullshit, this is full on rebuild mode. They're going to get a new quarterback in one of these drafts. Yeah. Yeah. For me, for me, the big thing is just will love us. I love Will Levis as a player. I love the way he plays. I like rooting for him. I would like to see him be a good quarterback. So don't get me wrong. I'm not anti Will Levis. I love the guy. Last year we talked about the crazy plays he would make. He runs around with his hair on fire. I love his attitude. That being said, I keep getting burned on these quarterbacks that I love watching play. I love their passion for the game. And then, you But they don't actually improve as quarterbacks. I, I did it with Tebow. I loved him. I was like, ah, no, no, no. He has the right attitude. He'll get there. And even recently I did it with Sam Howell. I just love watching the guy play. I love the way he put his problems are still his problems. You know, Justin Fields, you know, Josh Allen. actually did improve and figure out how to sit in the pocket, make the right reads, be decisive, get the ball out of his hands without taking the sacks and costing his team over and over again like that. But clearly most quarterbacks don't figure it out for themselves. They don't improve in those ways. And so I think what's most likely is that Levis is going to suck and this team is going to suck because of it. Okay. That's just that, that's just that. I think the offensive line, they tried to do what they could, but it was clearly one of the worst in the league last year. I still think they're going to be below average. So I don't expect a ton from that run game necessarily. I don't think the defense is even good enough to do the run, the ball play defense thing. I think they need to air it out. They, they did go out and get Ridley. Okay. I don't think DeAndre Hopkins is necessarily just dead. I think he's still got some gas in the tank. I don't think it's going to be on their lack of playmakers. I think it's going to be about Levis. I'm just not big into Levis. I don't have them at three wins, but I do have them at five, which is not very good. Five and 12, I think is what they, what they end up being. And yeah, just, I'm not falling for the thing. I love how he plays. I want him to do well, but not falling for it again, man. Fantastic. Well, I don't have any prop bets for this team unless you're just taking the unders, take all the unders. Yeah. I've got the unders, the Levis unders. I think there's a good chance that he doesn't start the full season, that he ends up getting benched because you know, nobody in that organization is going to be happy about them losing a bunch of games. So I think that he ends up getting benched and which case, of course he doesn't hit his unders or he doesn't hit his, His season long total, so yeah, I like the unders for Will Levis and I like, I like the unders for like touchdowns for both of the running backs for both Tajay Spears and for Pollard. I just don't think the offense is going to move that ball that much. And they're going to be splitting like a 50, 50 workload. So I like those unders too. I don't think there's many sites necessarily offering those specific season longs, but if you find them hit the, hit the unders. Absolutely. Well, there you have it. That is the finale of the preseason primer series. That's it. We're ready for the season. I hope you are too. With that being said on the way out. Let's hit up some college football. Cause we got that starting this week, this weekend, week zero, Florida state, Georgia tech is the big game. Number 10, Florida state with DJ ukulele at the helm. Not sure why this team is a number 10 team in the nation. They lost a lot of players last year and their quarterback is DJ ukulele. Which if anyone has watched him play, have they not seen his failures? He's the average, he's average. He, they, everyone said it was the coaching at Clemson, but then he went to Oregon state and was still average there. So it's clearly not the coaching. It's the player other games, Montana state versus New Mexico, SMU versus Nevada and Delaware state versus Hawaii, Hawaii. Yeah. So. College football gets kicked off this weekend. Then the big slate comes next weekend, And then the last thing I wanted to talk about on the way out is I was listening to Griffin Proc podcast and he too felt the same way about plantar fasciitis. That that shit just don't go away, man. So you and him are on the same wavelength. Yeah, that that's part of the thing. I actually forgot to mention that. But it's part of the reason why I'm a little bit arrowed down on McConkie now is because like, even if he does work his, his way into a full time, you know, receiver position in the two receiver sets or whatever, I don't think Herbert's going to be the same Herbert that we're expecting, at least not for the first season, they, you know, it just. It just sucks. It just sucks the way that that whole team, right. Is what it is. I think they're playing for future seasons. They are indeed. Next week we'll be playing for future seasons and this seasons. We're going to talk about fantasy football. What we're looking at just fantasy in general, As always, you can bicker with us or tell us what we did wrong. In the email at pond pony podcast, 22 at gmail. com or hit us up on threads or Instagram at pine pony podcasts. That's right. See you next week.
