Third Down Breakdown: NFL Week 3 Insights

Welcome to the Week 3 preview of the Pine Pony Podcast! This episode dives into the exciting matchups ahead, including the Texans vs. Vikings and Eagles vs. Saints, while also touching on some notable college football games. Join us as we analyze key player performances, injury updates, and betting insights. We also share our favorite fantasy picks and betting props, including intriguing matchups for the Steelers and Ravens.  Get ready for an action-packed weekend of football!

Chapters

• 0:35 College Football Notable Games
• 2:02 Texans vs Vikings
• 5:47 Eagles vs Saints
• 9:05 Steelers vs Chargers
• 11:00 Ravens vs Cowboys
• 12:37 Packers vs Titans
• 16:14 Extra Curricular Props and Such

Transcript

Jason: 0:00

Welcome, welcome, welcome to the week three Minnesota preview pod of the Pine Pony podcast.

pershin: 0:08

Hell yeah. What's happening,

Jason: 0:10

Persian?

pershin: 0:10

Howdy, howdy. Excited to talk about some Expectations. Maybe some things were a little bit nervous about, well, week three, look ahead real quick.

Jason: 0:20

Absolutely. Absolutely. With that being said, let's go ahead and get into it. Let's start the show.

0:26

The Pied Pony Podcast.

Jason: 0:32

Let's talk about some college football, notable games real quick. Clemson comes back off a buy to play NC state NC state has always been a thorn in Clemson size. So it'll be interesting to see if. The game they had against app state will happen again, or will it be more of a game like we had against Georgia or will it be like something more in the middle? So I'll be interested in that game. Obviously as Clemson fan, I will be watching that actively. Georgia tech has an opportunity to knock off another ranked ACC team in just missed it. Just, just fucking forgot it. Georgia Tech has the opportunity to knock off another rank to a CC team in number 19 Louisville. See if they can get to three in one or two and two FSU could end up going, oh, in four they play the Golden Bear. Oh. Of California. So get popcorn.'cause that's must see TV for me. And then the game of the week is Tennessee versus Oklahoma. Of course, both ranked teams. So we'll see if Tennessee actually has what it takes this year or have they just been playing easier opponents. And looking really good. All right, but let's get into the NFL. So let's start off with the Texas versus the Vikings, both two and O on the year so far.

pershin: 2:12

Both pretty competitive teams. I think this is going to be a good game.

Jason: 2:24

All right. And the line on that is Houston is giving two and a half with a 45 and a half over under. That's interesting two and a half at at minnesota considering minnesota just beat the 49ers So whoo, man, that's a tough one to touch right there, especially how the texans game went last week that was close So what do you what do you think about this game man?

pershin: 2:53

Yeah, I think the line is actually pretty efficient I do Prefer the texans like in a neutral site Which means I hate I hate betting on On You know, things that are pretty close to that two, two and a half, whatever. When they're, when they're having to go on the road, I do think that this is probably going to be a pretty good game. It's going to be interesting to see if Sam Donald can continue his sort of streak of, of good performance. It'll be really interesting to see is. One or both of Addison and Jefferson going to be available for the Vikings, you know I think the fact that they've got Diggs, Dell, and Nico Collins completely healthy rolling into this game is a huge benefit for them I know that

Jason: 3:43

yeah, and Tank Dell got some got some play last week pretty pretty good in the run game a little bit, too

pershin: 3:49

Yeah, yeah, they they will let him, do jet sweep send arounds and stuff sometimes I mean he's fast enough gotta make plays happen You know, they they may very well be without mixing for a game or two. We're not completely sure there I think that if Nixon does miss cam makers, a guy you want to look at for sort of like pick them props and particularly on DK. He's a really good value. If you're doing cash games and stuff like that, I know that he cam acres only costs 4, 200 or wait, no, that's a seven. I wrote, he, he costs 4, 700 which is going to be by far the cheapest. Starting running back that you could afford on DK. And the thing is that he's a starting running back for a pretty good offense and, and the Vikings, you know, they do a pretty good job of, of creating pressure on pass plays, but they don't necessarily have a great rushing defense. You know, you can run on them a little bit, at least. So I like, I like his props and I like him in, in DK lineups you know, DFS this coming week, probably. But I don't know if I have a strong take of which team I expect to win this. I do think it's going to be a pretty close game. What do you think?

Jason: 5:03

Yeah, I do think it'll be pretty close. Being the fan that I am, I obviously, I want the Texas to win, man. I don't I think they will end up winning this game. I think they just have too much firepower.

pershin: 5:17

Yeah. I think if, if both Addison and Jefferson's out, then I would be willing to bet on the Texans, the Texans over. But but I just don't know.

Jason: 5:32

Yeah, I think even

pershin: 5:34

with those guys, I would argue they have the more complete team though. And I have, I just have a ton of faith in D'Amico Ryan's getting the best out of that defense. And of course the offense is already in a great place with Stroud and all those weapons. So it's like, it's easy to see things going well for them.

Jason: 5:54

Absolutely. Well, next game, let's look at the Eagles versus the Saints. The Saints are at home as a two and a half point favorite with a 49 and a half over under. I, I gotta say, man, I think this is gonna be a Saints win. Jalen Hurts, you know, we thought week one. Alright, he's playing in Brazil. The field's wet. You know, this and that. You know, we'll, we'll kind of give him a pass. He didn't look that great in week two against the falcons either and and they got beat so You know with with the way the saints are playing Offensively like this could like the the eagles got got a challenge coming up here, especially at home in in the superdome

pershin: 6:39

Yeah, aj brown is doubtful already anytime. You're listed as doubtful that early in the week. It's It's almost always that you can't go. I do think that this presents a pretty good value. When you're looking at picking props and you're looking at dfs once again devonta smith. He is 6900 on Dk this week. I think that that's too low given the huge target share that he's going to get In a game where the saints are actually Project to put up a bunch of points as crazy as that sounds, they have been the most efficient, most explosive offense in the league so far. And so you got to think that this can easily turn into a shootout where Devonta Smith is just going to get force fed the ball over and over again. And yeah, maybe he functions as the one B when AJ Brown's around, but in most. Offensive teams. He's plenty good to cash in on a huge target share, you know So I really like his sort of expectations for this game But I also i'm with you that I think that the saints have their shit together more so than the eagles do right now I think that the eagles didn't play Very much of their dudes in the preseason and I think you know So much has been made of how there's a brand new scheme. And a lot of the players are having a hard time understanding all the details and the nuances of being on the same page with everything. And the saints had a whole new scheme too, but it's pretty clear to see that they've got it down. They've got that together. And so I think that they're just kind of ahead of the curb and the rest of the NFL is kind of. Still working out their kinks in a way where the saints they've got that shit down pat. And as surprising as it is to say that I, I would, I like them to cover already the favorite. I do. I do.

Jason: 8:25

Yeah, absolutely. I think this is going to be a seven point victory by the saints or more or more.

pershin: 8:31

Yeah, I think it should be, I think it should be more like four and a half, five, maybe even five and a half spread. I could see them winning by six. By seven I could see something like that is the most likely outcome in my opinion Again, I think that there could be down the road that the eagles actually are more competitive than they are right now, but it seems like particularly on offense, they've come out with a lot of kind of miscues sloppiness. And I, I, I just, I just think that the saints are, they're just in line here. It's a good spot.

Jason: 9:06

All right. So we go from a potential high scoring game to a potential low scoring game in chargers versus the Steelers. Steelers are at home and they are a one point favorite with 35 and a half over under Give me you know where i'm going with this. I'm riding the magic beans Give me the steelers. I'm I they are winning this game by at least three points Because that's steeler ball I don't care. I don't care. What do you think about this game? Who do you like, man?

pershin: 9:45

Both teams, to me, are actually in the same sort of bucket. They're almost like mirrors of each other because they're teams who, so far, their defense is playing better than they did the previous season. And the offensive line is doing well. The run game's pretty good and they both want to play the same way. They want to play Harbaugh. Yeah. What Smith, our friend of the pod Smith would call Smith ball. They want to do that. And they're doing that. I do think that even though the over under is super low, they're 35 and a half. I actually like the under just because both of these teams, both of these teams are in the bottom six in pace of play. They, they want to run the ball so much that there's just not going to be that many plays in this game. The clock is going to run out so fucking fast and there's just not going to be a ton of plays in this game. That, that's my, I bet you it's going to be like a 13, 10 sort of, sort of game. I'm just going to pick the home team here. I think that these teams are pretty equal and I think they both have above average coaching. So I think the edge should go to the home team.

Jason: 10:58

Okay. All right. Going to Ravens Cowboys. Cowboys are at home. Ravens are a one point favorite with an over under 48 and a half. That's a, that's a lot of points. I don't, I don't know that that's going to get that high. This is an interesting game because you, you know, Dak got paid and then came out and laid a fucking egg. So you don't know which Dak you're going to get. Yeah. And that's, that's real interesting, but the Ravens are going to be desperate. So I do think the Ravens pick up a win here. I think it'll be close though. What do you think?

pershin: 11:41

I, yeah, actually like the Cowboys. I think that the biggest problem with the Cowboys has almost been the same sort of thing with the Eagles, where it's like, it seems like they're not, they're not quite on the same page with a lot of stuff. It seems like they're not. They're just, they don't yet have their shit together. And I think as the season goes on, they're probably going to get better. Whereas with the Ravens, I think that there's a very sort of core systematic problem, but that offensive line, that's not necessarily going to get any better. And I think that when you have to go up against guys like Michael Parsons, We saw what Chris Jones did to them and then what Max Crosby did to them. And I just feel like Micah Parsons is going to eat, eat, eat, eat. He's going to be such a headache for them. I think that, you know, the Cowboys will be able to do enough on offense to get this win. Though I do agree with you that I don't think these offenses are necessarily good enough to where. I would pick the over. I think if anything, I like the under on the over on the overall score there. Yeah, but that, that's kind of how I see things playing out. I think that the Cowboys will come up with just a bit more offense than the Ravens will. Oh, I think you're muted.

Jason: 12:59

All right. And the final game on our radar, I didn't kind of want to talk about this game just because I'm a Packers fan and I didn't want to be a Homer, but I do the reason why we're going to talk about this game is because. I think it's a joke that they've got the Titans as a three point favorite in this game. And especially the way Malik Willis played, I understand the Titans are at home. But will Levis is an absolute moron. He's a maniac maniac. I mean, when you've got the coach yelling at you, what the fuck are you doing? Like what, you know, I think the game plan here for the Packers is the exact same as it was last week and it is fucking run the ball. And we saw Marshawn Lloyd last week. He actually got some touches and he looked really, really nice. Made a couple of good cutbacks, got into open space and got his 10 yards. So I think it's more of the same and I think Malik Willis, this would be like considered a revenge game, right? Yeah, it's gotta be, right? Gotta be a revenge game. So 36 and a half points spread. What do you think? What do you think about this game? What do you like?

pershin: 14:13

Yeah, I completely agree with you. I literally already have a bet for the Packers in this game. I think that they should not be. An underdog in this game. I understand that it's in Tennessee and their offense has or excuse me and their defense That's been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. They have been very good on defense. I'll give them that credit that being said though is For as much of a question mark as you think malik willis is Levis is not a question mark. He's just an obvious. No, you know what i'm saying? it's just like when When you, I know, man, I think if this matchup happened last week, I would have been okay. I probably, I might want to stay away because we just don't know what to expect from Malik for us. And the thing is just, he did fine with what they asked him to do. I think they're going to do the same thing again, where they're going to give them a lot of underneath stuff. They're going to give them gimme passes when they do pass, but first and foremost, they're just going to run the ball. And I think that they're going to do a good enough job of running the ball. And really all they need is. A turnover or two to happen for them to kind of have the game locked up. I think that will love us is just a turnover machine. I think he makes a lot of bad decisions, a lot of inaccurate throws where he just sailed shit. I just, he doesn't seem to always be aware when there's a blindside rusher against strip sack, all kinds of. He's just a headache waiting to happen for his own team. And I think the Packers, all they need to do is just avoid any huge catastrophic mistakes like that. And, and they'll do, they'll be fine. I don't expect a ton of fireworks offensively in this game, but I don't think they'll need it. I think that there'll be fine. Just running the ball as much as they can. And the thing is that Malik Willis will. We'll run the ball more if they are challenged. I think he's got more than what he showed. He did fine with what they asked him to do, but I think if they had to ask him to do more, whether it's to run the ball himself, which he's, he is a very fast runner, or if it's to throw more downfield, the couple of times they asked him to do it, he looked fine. He looked fine. Yeah, he looks good. I was I am not as scared of this situation as the market is. And I think that you know, I think that you should be tailing us and put a little bit of cash on the Packers here.

Jason: 16:36

Well, that's all the games we got to look at tonight, but what else are you looking at other bets, props, anything that you, that we didn't mention that you want to mention real quick?

pershin: 16:46

Yeah, just quickly. There's a few more things that I caught. It's early in the week. So there's not a ton of stuff out yet, but prize picks actually did have a decent amount of stuff. A ton of stuff on the Thursday game. Obviously it's just a couple of days away, but yeah. They got a free square going on with Caleb Williams. You know, if he gets one yard passing, then you, you win that pick them. So go ahead, get on prize picks, get that free money. I like the verset over 160 yards passing. I think they're going to have no choice, but to pass it a lot, just because I think the jets will be leading. They're an obvious favorite in this game. And also I like the Aaron Rogers. Less than 31 pass attempts in this game. Like I said, I think they're, they're happy to lean on the run where they can. Both of these teams play at a really slow pace of play. And I don't think that they're going to have to come from behind. It's not going to be a shootout or anything like that. I also like that. They've got a breeze hall, anytime, touchdown, just 0. 5. So you can get. If he just gets one touchdown, either rushing or receiving and a matchup again, where they're favored, I think he's going to get plenty of work. I like all of those on prize picks as well as on Sunday, Stefan digs under 19 and a half for his longest reception. I don't think a lot of people have necessarily noticed, but Stefan digs has primarily been working a lot of underneath routes. He hasn't been going down the field like that. And I think even when he does. Catch stuff. And he's like wide open. I don't think he necessarily has the same acceleration that he used to have to break a huge play. So I like the under for longest. Reception for for Stefan Diggs. And then also on DK, I noticed a lot of dudes that were pretty good value. We kind of already hinted at this, but Malik Willis, 5, 000. That is as cheap as a starting QB as you're going to get. The guy gots has rushing upside and basically whatever he gets you touchdown wise. Is going to be just icing on the cake. He's basically guaranteed for 10 points, which is like a two X of that 5, 000. I mean, even in the first week where he did almost nothing, he got 13 DK points. I still think that they haven't up Jordan Mason's price enough. He's getting the rock like 20 something times a game. He's only 6, 200 on a really good offense. We already talked about cam makers and Devonta Smith, a guy who I think is going to. Benefit the most from Bryce Young getting benched is Deontay Johnson. They, they keep dropping his price. He's only 4, 900 now. He's going to get peppered with a lot of targets from a guy who's not Bryce Young. So

Jason: 19:25

we had somebody try, I had somebody try to trade me for him today.

pershin: 19:29

Oh, that's smart. Yeah.

Jason: 19:30

I was like, no, cause he knows.

pershin: 19:33

Yeah. And then another guy who's playing the Cooper cup role. As soon as Cooper cup got injured, they brought in a rookie Jordan Whittington. A lot of people don't know about this guy, but he actually did have a really good buzz in the off season. Training camp and he was drunk Jordan Whittington. What you said? He had a good buzz. So, yeah, he had good vibes. He had good buzz. Yeah. And the thing is that he literally slotted right into what Cooper cup was doing in the second half. He got caught two of three targets. I think he, he's going to get a decent amount of targets. They're running out of dudes, so they're going to have no choice, but to use them. He's only 4, 200 this week on DK. So. If you're in a situation where you need to save money and you need to get a cheap guy, he makes for a perfect punt play. Those are the guys I think are the most interesting on DK at this point.

Jason: 20:28

Awesome. Awesome. Well, if you like any of those and you're looking to put some money down this weekend, head on over to signup, expert. com backslash pine pony. To check out some of the best places in your area. And then also remember that parlay play has a hundred dollar match for all new users. So, you know, if you want to check that out, go over to the link, sign up new user, put up to a hundred dollars down, they'll match it for you. With that being said, we'll see you next week and happy fantasy weekend. Good luck week three.