Myth-Busting Bar Failures: Realistic Stats and Profitability Insights

What if the failure rate statistics you've been hearing about the bar industry are all wrong? Join me, Chris Schneider, on this week's Bar Business Podcast as we dispel some of the most pervasive myths that have been haunting bar owners for years. We start by dissecting the oft-quoted but unsubstantiated claim that 80% of bars fail within five years. Leveraging studies from Ohio State University and data from Starfish, we debunk these misleading figures and encourage bar owners to focus on improving their own performance metrics rather than being swayed by inaccurate industry standards.

We also explore fascinating data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing even lower failure rates for businesses opened in 2022, and how establishments that opened just before the COVID-19 pandemic have shown remarkable resilience in the face of adversity.

Finally, let's talk profitability. Contrary to the belief that bars operate on razor-thin margins of less than 5%, data from Starfish reveals that bars in major cities can see average net profits of 10.4%, with non-major cities reaching as high as 21.4%. We delve into the importance of managing prime costs effectively and provide actionable strategies to boost your P&L numbers. From understanding occupancy costs to adapting to consumer behavior trends, this episode is packed with insights to help you steer your bar toward greater profitability. Tune in for data-driven advice and practical tips tailored to your unique business model.

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Welcome to the Bar Business Podcast, the ultimate resource for bar owners looking to elevate their businesses to the next level. Our podcast is packed with valuable insights, expert advice, and inspiring stories from successful bar owners and industry professionals. Tune in to learn everything from how to craft the perfect cocktail menu to how to manage your staff effectively. Our mission is to help you thrive in the competitive bar industry and achieve your business goals.

Special thank you to our benchmarking data partner Starfish. Starfish works with your bookkeeping software by using AI to help you make smart data-driven decisions and maximize your profits while giving you benchmarking data to understand how you compare to the industry at large.

For more information on how to spend less time working in your bar and more time working on your bar:
The Bar Business Podcast Website
Schedule a Strategy Session
Chris' Book 'How to Make Top-Shelf Profits in the Bar Business'
Bar Business Nation Facebook Group

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

You're listening to the Bar Business Podcast where every week, your host, chris Schneider, brings you information, strategies and news on the bar industry, giving you the competitive edge you need to start working on your bar rather than in your bar.

Speaker 2: 0:20

Welcome to this week's edition of the Bar Business Podcast, your ultimate resource for bar owners. I'm your host, chris Schneider, and in today's episode, we're going to talk all about myths that exist around bar statistics and what the data that I can find shows, and so with that, you hear a lot of people quote a lot of different numbers about how bars operate, what great numbers should be, and it's not necessarily true. Now, a lot of these numbers are things that have been passed around for years. They're understandings people have about how the business works works, but not every number that gets quoted, no matter how many times it gets quoted, has an actual, definable primary source, has an actual study done by a university or somebody that actually shows that number to be true. And one of the things that strikes me and I've talked with a number of people about this, both clients, other consultants, people in the industry is that whenever metrics get discussed online, people have a tendency to look at those metrics and say, oh my God, I'm not good enough because I'm not hitting this metric. Or, oh my God, this statistic shows me that I'm not doing what I should be doing, shows me that I'm not doing what I should be doing, and that can be a really detrimental mindset to get into. It can really prevent you from moving forward because you feel like you're failing or like you're not good enough. And instead of doing that, whenever you see metrics or statistics discussed online, what I would really recommend is stay curious, look for the basis of it, see if there's a study you can find that acknowledges it.

Speaker 2: 2:08

Because, again, a lot of the things online, a lot of the numbers that you hear people quote all day, every day and I'm just as guilty as this as anyone in the industry Some of those numbers are just not factually accurate or are really undefinable. And because of that, one of the biggest pieces of advice that I give to my clients, that I give to everybody that I talk to when it comes to metrics and numbers and statistics and P&Ls and all of that, is to always remember you're competing with the bar you were yesterday and you're not competing with anyone else. If you're going to continuously improve your business, if you're going to have a system in place to make your bar better, you're not competing against other people, you're competing against yourself yesterday. So we're going to go through some of these statistics, we're going to talk through some of these numbers. Some of them, I think, are very interesting, and one of the things that we're going to rely on when we get into some specifics of accounting numbers is data from Starfish. If you have not checked out the episode we did a few weeks ago with Jordan Silverman of Starfish, it's a great episode to check out, but with our partnership with them between the podcast and Starfish we get access to some of their data. So we're going to talk through some of that.

Speaker 2: 3:29

But to start here, I want to tackle what is quite possibly the most common statistic that you hear about bars that, frankly, I have quoted many times and I have heard others quote many times, but I can't find a primary source for it and that is that the bar industry is super risky because 80% of bars fail within five years, and a lot of times you'll hear people say, well, 60% failed the first year and 80% fail within five years. Interestingly and I, like I said, this is a number that I've quoted because everyone uses this data point I spent hours trying to find studies that actually deal with this and I could not find a study that had those numbers in it. Now I found different studies that are around those numbers. But frankly, after researching this for a number of hours and reading primary source documents and studies, the restaurant and the bar industry is not necessarily as risky as people think it is. The data just isn't there to say that. Now, something I should note is that all of the studies I could find, all of the actual research I could find, was based on restaurants and bars, so we're not talking just bars alone, and some of that information will get into BLS, bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. What their records show at the end of this conversation about failure rates, and theirs is for the entire category of accommodations and food services. So that's going to include hotels, that's going to include the coffee shops, cafes, restaurants, bars, concession stands. That's a very broad category. But I absolutely tried and could not find anything that is saying specifically. This is what these numbers are for bars, but here's what I could find. So our common statistic, we hear, is 60% fail the first year, 80% fail within five years. Now, the earliest study I found that people some folks were actually still quoting was from 1991. And it showed a 26% three-year failure rate, with the caveat that 12% of the businesses they studied failed in the sense that the original business was no longer there, but actually they changed ownership and were still open. So the 91 study found that 14% of bars and restaurants fail within three years, which, when you think about it, is really pretty low compared to what people think Now. We should also point out that study is now over 30 years old, so the validity of it may not be great.

Speaker 2: 6:28

The most common study that you see quoted as far as the failure rate of bars and how risky the industry is is a study done by Ohio State. Study by Ohio State is. There are people online and you will find plenty of sources that say that that study showed a 60% one-year failure rate and an 80% five-year failure rate. That's kind of where those numbers come from. But if you actually go and read the study, which was done in the early 2000s, so we're talking 20 years ago and it relies on data from 96 to 99. So we're talking pre-dot-com bubble burst, pre-9-11, totally different world. But what that study showed was that 26% of bars and restaurants fail in the first year and 60% fail in three years. Now, again, that's lower significantly than what most people are considering, but it's also data that is not terribly valid in today's world.

Speaker 2: 7:32

The next major impact on how people view bar and restaurant failure was an Amex commercial in 2003 that claimed 90% of restaurants fail in the first year. No clue where Amex got that number. I cannot find anything from around that 2003 timeframe that points to that. So yeah, I just don't know. The National Restaurant Association did a study in 2010. So now we're getting a little bit more relevant. We're talking about 14 years ago. That showed that 30% of restaurants fail in the first year. So that 30%. That's really in line with the Ohio State study that happened a decade before that. That showed 26%. So it's probably, you know, we're seeing both pre-9-11, pre-dot-com and post-9-11, post the 2008 financial crisis. Those numbers are not terribly different 26% versus 30%. So that's probably an indicator of where the first year failure rate lies. But again, we don't have enough data from recently to say that.

Speaker 2: 8:39

Now there was another study that was done by Eat this New York in 2011 that said that 80% of restaurants and bars in New York City fail within five years. I have a feeling that's where that 80% number came from, because it's the only thing I could find that refers to that, but interestingly, eat this New York I don't think it exists anymore and I couldn't find any source data on it. I could only find press releases of articles about that fact. So I cannot figure out whether or not that's a valid statistic or not. But again, that statistic says 30% fail. I'm sorry, 80% fail within the first five years.

Speaker 2: 9:20

Now there was a study done probably the most comprehensive study was done by UC Berkeley in 2013. So again we're closer to now, but we're still talking pre-COVID. We're talking a decade ago, so it's not necessarily relevant to what happens today. But what they did is they studied data from a long time period. They looked at 1992 to 2011 and tried to figure out what is the failure rate, and they found that when looking at the entire period, the first year failure rate was 17%. Now they also noted that an 83% one-year survival rate would mean that bars and restaurants are statistically less likely to fail than technical consulting, managerial consulting, computer programming, landscaping services, real estate offices and janitorial services. So when you think about the restaurant and bar industry as the most potentially difficult industry due to high failure rates, well, that study would actually say well, it's not. And, frankly, those are all the studies that I could find regarding restaurant or bar failure rates.

Speaker 2: 10:35

I could not find a single data point after 2013 that was tied to a legitimate study, or even an illegitimate study. I couldn't find any data really at all, and so that took me to say, okay, is there anything I can pull that is more recent, more relevant? And I got into bureau of labor statistics data and what bls is saying is that they have a category called accommodation and food services and they measure failure rates for that category based on when folks open and so that's, and there's a lot of tables they have online and it can be really interesting because you can see, okay, if you opened in 91, you are more likely to close in the first year than if you open in 95. I'm not sure that's true, I just made that up, but you can start to compare years to years and have some interesting information. The other great thing about that data was the most recent year that they have a one-year survival rate on was 2022. So they know what opened in 2022 and they're saying, okay, this place was still open. It opened. And they use March as the cutoff. So it opened between March of 21 and March of 22, and it was still open March of 23. So that gives us some really better data.

Speaker 2: 11:53

But again, the category is so broad I don't know that hotels have a lower failure rate than bars, which have a lower failure rate than restaurants, and indeed the number for bars and restaurants should be higher. The number for bars should be a little bit lower than the number for restaurants, and hotels are just keeping this whole thing down statistically, so the data is still not great, but it's the most accurate, up-to-date data that I could find digging around on the internet and that shows that establishments that opened in 2022 had a 14.2% first year failure rate. So that's even lower than the 17% that Berkeley had found and quite possibly means that the restaurant and the bar industry are not really that risky at all. Again, I have a feeling the hotel industry is less risky than the bar and restaurant industry, so that's holding that number down a bit, but again, there's no data that breaks that apart. It showed that restaurants that opened in 2021 had a 13.4 first year failure rate and a 10.4 second year failure rate, so that's giving you about 75% survived the first two years and, interestingly, one thing that I thought was quite fascinating was looking at the 2020 numbers, because we all know, 2020 was probably the worst time to open up a bar or restaurant in history, with COVID and everything else going on. And what they showed there was that people that opened between March of 19 and March of 20 had a 14.5% first year failure rate, which is not statistically that much higher. It's really no different than the two years after that at 13.4 and 14.2.

Speaker 2: 13:43

Now those businesses. What was really interesting to me is the second year failure rate for accommodations and food service businesses that open in 2020 was only 5.4% and then only 8% for the third year. So it would appear that something about the adversity of opening right before COVID made these businesses stronger, and that makes sense from a logical standpoint when you think about how people look at their P&L, how they manage money. These businesses had to deal with more adversity quicker. They had to have better systems, they had to have better ways to manage their money because they were on the brink of failure.

Speaker 2: 14:36

Of restaurants, bars, hotels, that food service and accommodation services category that opened in the year prior to COVID still existed in 2023. So when you think about that, 72% of those businesses still existed in 2023. That does not coincide with a 60% first year failure rate. It definitely does not coincide with a 80% five year failure rate. So all of this is to say don't be scared by the numbers, don't be scared by the statistics, because the statistic you always hear that I've said plenty of times 60% fail the first year, 80% fail within five years. Maybe, but I don't think so. Based on the data that I can find, based on primary source documents, nothing I could find substantiated that number and that means that the bar industry is not statistically any more difficult than pretty much any other industry out there. The other thing that I found fascinating and this was in deep in some of the data but the number of employees you have is a predictor of your success and really what they're saying is you're more likely to succeed if you have more than 20 employees in your business and logically it seems that the reason for that is you have better capitalization. You're a larger business, it's probably less bootstrapped. A lot of small like real small mom and pops fail at a greater rate than, say, a large establishment that's being put in place with big money and people that have been around the block. So that kind of makes sense logically. But overall it was just really interesting to me that I cannot substantiate that metric, and no matter how hard I try to say this is the percentage of bars that fail, I cannot find a single source document that actually says this is the percentages of bars that fail.

Speaker 2: 16:37

Hey there, bar owners, it's Chris Schneider, the bar business coach. Are you tired of the daily grind and ready to skyrocket your profits? I've got the solution. With my coaching and consulting services, we deep dive into menu management, team empowerment and business optimization. Instead of slogging away in your business day in and day out, washing dishes, covering for employees and working 60 plus hours a week, picture this a thriving business that runs like clockwork, whether you're there or not, letting you enjoy the successes that you've dreamed of. Let's make it happen. Visit barbusinesscoachcom to schedule your free 30-minute strategy session with me, or you can book a session just by clicking the link in the show notes below. Together, we will turn your business into a profit powerhouse, because at the Bar Business Coach, our only goal is to help you spend less time working in your bar and more time working on your bar.

Speaker 2: 17:29

And then that led me to look at a couple different metrics and potential ideas when it comes to your P&L numbers, because everybody compares P&L numbers and what are they really? Plus, now that we have the partnership with Starfish, I was able to crunch some of their data and really look at what is the reality. So something you'll hear a lot of people say is that bars make 5% net profit on average or they make less than 5% net profit on average. Now, that includes amortization, depreciation, those sorts of things and anybody. If you own a business, amortization and depreciation are absolutely real costs, but not really affecting your cash flow, because you've already spent that cash to acquire the assets before and you're just costing them or expensing them over time, I should say, and moving that from your balance P&L, so net profit under 5%. I just don't buy it because I really think most people in the industry are profiting more than you think they are, and if you're not making at least 5%, you need to set up a meeting with me and let's figure out why. Let's dig into your data, let's look at your P&L, let's figure out why. Because you should so using Starfish's data.

Speaker 2: 18:56

Now I will say two things about the Starfish data that are true. One is it's restaurants and bars put together. They have a lot of bar clients. They have a lot of restaurant clients. So this is more hospitality food service average than it is a bar industry average. And two, their data will always look better than the average and the reason for that is anyone that's spending money for a program to help them manage their finances is paying more attention to their finances than, say, the average bar owner. So if I was, we're going through some stats that they have. If you're not hitting these percentages, don't feel bad. Um, because these folks have obviously put time and effort and money and investment into getting their numbers where they want them. But if you're not hitting these numbers, give me a call and let's figure out why and let's help you hit some of these better numbers.

Speaker 2: 19:56

So with starfish, when they, when I have their data to look at, I'm looking at percentages across all their clients. Obviously, I can't say any specific client data. That would be really bad from a logistical standpoint and a security standpoint. So I see percentages of their data across all their clients broken into two categories those in major cities and those in non-major cities. And the reason why, as I was going through with them, I had them break up the data for me that way is because major cities, you know, you think New York City, you think LA, you think Chicago, miami a lot of these places everything's more expensive. Their rent is hideously more money. Miami a lot of these places, everything's more expensive, the rent is hideously more money and overall it just costs more to do business there. California minimum wage is way higher than, say, indiana minimum wage, where I am, and it's still $2.13 an hour for tipped employees. So there are differences in business and to me, one of the biggest differences when we're talking about bars and restaurants is are you in a major metropolitan area? Are you not in a major metropolitan?

Speaker 2: 20:58

So when I went to look at what is net profit across their clients and again the myth that you will hear is most bars make less than 5% Well, they're showing with their bars and restaurants on their system. In major cities they're averaging 10.4% net profit and in non-major cities and rural areas they're managing to pull out 21.4% average net profit, which really means that if you have a bar, if you have a restaurant, and somebody says you can make 20%, you go. You're full of shit. No, they're not. You can pull 20% out of a bar or restaurant. Is it going to be easy? No, is it going to require a lot of work. Yes, does it require having systems in place and managing your P&L well and understanding your numbers and running metrics, and all of that Absolutely. But it is an achievable, worthwhile goal that you can actually hit. Customers in major cities average 10.4 net and in non-major cities, in rural areas, they're managing to pull out 21.4 net on average, which means there are people that are doing a lot more than that and I know from talking to other consultants there are bars out there that are doing 40 plus net. So don't look at oh, I'm doing 10, I'm doing as well as anybody. No, you can always do better and there are strategies and things that can be put in place to help you get there.

Speaker 2: 22:40

Now a couple other numbers I looked at out of Starfish's data. Is, it said, okay, prime cost. If you have not listened to it, there was an episode about a month ago where we talked about prime cost at 55% and, to give you a quick summary, you should definitely check out that episode. But to give you a quick summary, basically I said that's bullshit. It's based upon you, your numbers. Hell, what even is prime cost? Because there are different definitions of prime cost depending upon who you talk to and 55% is not really the goal. So I looked at Starfish's data and I said, okay, if we just take out you know, if you listen to the PrimeCost episode or you look at the way I like to do charts of accounts I include merchant services fees and other things in PrimeCost.

Speaker 2: 23:24

But I said no, what is just food and beverage cost and labor cost?

Speaker 2: 23:28

What is just food and beverage cost and labor cost? We combine those, what do we get? Well, starfish says in major cities their clients are averaging 64.8% prime and in non-major cities they're averaging 57.8% prime. So if the goal was 55, if that's what you had to do to make money, well, that's just not true, because these folks in non-major cities have a 58% essentially prime cost with a 21% net profit. Doesn't quite make sense, necessarily if you've listened to all the numbers that people throw out there. But it goes a long way to prove that data is about what you do yourself, not about what other places are doing. And trying to fit yourself to industry averages doesn't always work, because if you told most people that know restaurant and bar numbers that hey, this restaurant averages a 64% or 65% prime cost which is what we see from the starfish data in major cities, but net's 10 percent, they would be mind blown. Now, part of the way that you do that is you have other costs under really good control and these guys are probably averaging a lot of volume. Again, I can't see the numbers, so I don't know how big these bars and restaurants are, but but I can promise you to have a 65% prime cost and still average 10% or 10.5% net. They're doing a lot of volume.

Speaker 2: 24:58

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Speaker 2: 25:38

The other statistic I looked at from the Starfish data, just because I was curious, was occupancy costs, so rent plus utilities, and you will hear a lot of people say this should be under 10%. Well, what I found from the Starfish data is actually it should be lower than that. If you're talking about having a 57% prime cost or 58% prime cost and still profiting at 21.5%, well your occupancy cost can't be much. For non-major cities that was at 4.9%. For major cities, that occupancy cost again rent plus utilities was averaging about 6.4%. So you can see 10% on occupancy cost is probably too high. Now, does that still work Absolutely? Would I still forecast based on that number? Probably because that's going to tamp down what I'm looking at at top line sales and make me be a little bit more strategic when I do forecasting and modeling on what's going to make sense for a business for the coming year. But again, that data shows it's not 10%, it's six and a half in major cities and 5% in non-major cities.

Speaker 2: 26:48

Now, last kind of statistical thing I want to focus on before we wrap up for the day is I, in doing all this, came across a toast restaurant industry dining trends survey that was conducted on january 24th of this year, so it's very relevant, right? We're talking about data that is now only about five and a half months old and they surveyed 850 consumers with the 5% margin of error. 850 doesn't sound like a lot, but 850 is a statistically significant sample size If you think about most of the political polling that you see, because we're in a political election year and they'll say well, this guy's at this percent, this guy's at that percent. Most of those surveys are done with between 750 and 1,000 people. 850 is a reasonable number of people to survey for a nationwide survey. Now what they found is that of those 850 people they surveyed, 89% dined out in the at least once in the past 30 days. So right now most people are going out to eat.

Speaker 2: 27:56

Um, and they found I thought this was interesting that more people ordered beer ban or, I'm sorry, more people order cocktails than beer or wine. 24% of those people order cocktails when they go out, 22% order beer and 20% order wine. I think for most bar owners we all know that wine is kind of the lowest of the liquor categories that we have or the alcohol categories that we have and doesn't really sell. Liquor sells the most, beer sells just a little bit less than liquor. That intuitively matches what I see on most bars P&L statements.

Speaker 2: 28:31

One thing that I found really interesting is. They dug into a little bit on people who never order an alcoholic beverage when dining out, which was about 17, 18%, but how that broke down was interesting 21% of women they surveyed said they never order an alcoholic beverage, but only 12% of men, they surveyed said they never order an alcoholic beverage. But only 12% of men they surveyed said they never order an alcoholic beverage. So we've talked about this before, but if you want to have a bar that's busy and that attracts people and is comfortable for most people, you need to make it inviting for women 100% of the time, but just be aware that that is a harder group to target. You have more people that are women that do not drink when they go out than men that do not drink when they go out, and it's almost double. It's a large statistical difference.

Speaker 2: 29:25

The other interesting thing I found from their survey was that when they looked at day parts and they said, ok, what day part do you go out for? Seventy five percent of dining out is for dinner. I think we all know that. What surprised me, though, is that lunch is, you know, a little chunk. Breakfast is a little chunk, but breakfast and brunch are actually the least frequented for establishments for going out, and I was kind of surprised by that because we all know brunch is great. I think a lot of bars should be doing brunch on the weekends, because brunch is just a great way to bring in people at 11 am rather than waiting until they all want to come out and drink at 9 pm if you're open during the day. But I just found that interesting.

Speaker 2: 30:09

So just to kind of tie this all up, because we've talked through a lot of numbers, we've talked through a lot of statistics, there are a lot of percentages probably that I've thrown at you here. But the main point I'm trying to make through all of this, especially with the failure rate of bars and restaurants, data is not something you should just trust because someone threw out a statistic. I think most of us have probably heard the joke that 65% of all statistics are made up on the spot, except maybe it was 85. I don't remember. But the point is, statistics are what they are and frequently bad information gets out into the ether and then everyone just parrots it. They keep repeating it and repeating it and repeating it. So anytime you're thinking okay, is my bar stacking up? What is this information that I need to kind of gauge my bar and how that relates to other bars.

Speaker 2: 31:01

Well, make sure you can find source docs, and there is, unfortunately, very little academic study of the bar industry, so almost every statistic you're going to find is a combination of bars and restaurants. Every statistic that we just talked through during this podcast episode is a combination of bars and restaurants. I could not find any real studies of just bars in and of themselves. So look for those source docs. Try to understand, if you can get into the academic studies. What was the sample size? What was the methodology? How much does this apply to bars? Because then you know, okay, how much do I care about this number? But even then, realize all bars are going to have different business models. You need to make sure that your bar has a structured path to profits, that your business model works, that you're getting the data you need to make good data-driven decisions. But with that said, just because someone else's model looks like this, your model doesn't have to look like that at all, and your numbers, your data, your percentages could be different than somebody else.

Speaker 2: 32:13

What really matters, and what I think is the most important thing as a bar owner because you make money on the business. Making profit is. What kind of operating profits are you generating? What kind of money are you bringing down to that bottom line and what kind of well, let's be honest expenses are you taking out of that business? Because a good bar should support you and your family doing whatever it is you want to do within reason, right? A bar will never buy you a private jet. You have one really good one and you get another five of them. There's a chance, I mean you can become Danny Meyer and have a bunch of restaurants and bars in New York City and that might buy you a private jet, although I doubt he has one.

Speaker 2: 32:56

But every bar is going to be a little bit different, every business model is a little bit different and if you only worry about the statistics, you're going to do a lot of beating your head against the wall. You're not going to feel great about yourself and you're not actually doing anything beneficial. And again, that leads to one of the points I started the show with is you're competing against yourself every day, not someone else. Your goal today should be to do better than you did yesterday and not to do some crazy number that someone else is doing. That has nothing necessarily to do with your model how you're measuring your P&L or anything like that. Now, obviously, if you want to look at your P&L and all that, I am more than happy to help. That's what I do day in and day out, so get a hold of me.

Speaker 2: 33:45

There are links in the show notes to get a strategy session, so go check that out. There's also links in the show notes to get a strategy session, so go check that out. There's also links in the show notes for our Bar Business Nation Facebook group, which is a killer community we have of bar and restaurant owners that all communicate and there are questions asked in there. I post things in there every day, but just a great way to collaborate with other bar owners and have an outlet to ask questions and to bounce ideas off of other people, because I think that's hugely important. And again, thanks for that. And the strategy sessions are in the show notes. And with that, guys, I'm going to let you go for today, so until next time. I hope you all have a great day and we will talk again later.

Speaker 1: 34:27

Thanks for listening to the Bar Business Podcast. Make sure to subscribe so you don't miss any future episodes. Check out our website at barbusinesspodcastcom and join our Bar Business Nation Facebook group for more strategies and tips.