If your dreams do not scare you, they are not big enough. You've probably heard that quote out of a lot of people's mouths, but do you know who said it first? Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. She was the first female head of state in Africa, first woman in Africa, elected as a president of her country. She was the president of Liberia from 2006 to 2018. She was also, during that time, a Nobel Peace Prize winner for bringing women to the peacekeeping table. Later, she became the first woman chair of the Economic Community of West African States. This is a woman with big dreams. If your dreams do not scare you, they are not big enough. And this quote starts us off today as we talk about what you can do with that bit of fuel when you choose a big scary dream.
Welcome to the Modern Creative Woman podcast exploring the art and science of creativity. This is the podcast for women who want to elevate their creativity and start applying creative thinking in their everyday life. I'm your hostess and creativity expert, Dr. Amy Backos. The modern creative woman is obsessed with helping you build your creativity through her conversations and creative insights. I'll share simple tricks and practices that can help you take the mystery out of the creative process and start each day feeling empowered, creative, and ready to take on whatever comes your way. Let's get started. Have you booked your ticket yet to join me? The Modern Creative Woman and Aurora at Girlboss Paris. This September we will be there for a week, giving you a total transformation makeover in your presence, your mindset, your purpose will be using neuro aesthetics. Aurora teaches style in the most unique way and you will come home transformed, captivating both yourself and others, and also feeling that authentic energy that you're probably craving right about now. We are taking an incredible community of women, and I would love for you to be a part of it. You can find the link in the show notes. You can message me and I'll send you some more information. And I would love to chat with you about your total transformation makeover in Paris.
Have you ever heard the phrase, this idiomatic expression, “your eyes are bigger than your stomach?” It is something that I heard from my grandmother and she had to explain it to me. I was just a little kid…that I might anticipate how much I could eat, but I was making a mistake in imagining that I would continue to stay hungry over time. And she was reminding me to think ahead. Plan ahead for how much you might want to put on your plate, and anticipate that after you eat half your food on your plate, you'll start to feel full and you won't need to put so much on your plate. This is a phenomenon that later was named projection bias, but grandmothers seemed to know about this long before the researchers did. Projection bias is really an overestimation of how much our future selves will hold the same values and beliefs as our current selves.
And this overestimation is essentially a miscalculation, and it leads us to making decisions that can be extremely shortsighted. In behavioral economics, projection bias refers to people's assumption that their tastes or preferences will remain the same over time, and the original article came from Lowenstein et al. 2003, and I can drop that link in the show notes. Both are transient preferences in the short term, such as feeling hungry or the weather outside, and our long term change in taste can lead to you this bias. Now, we might overestimate the positive impact of a new purchase or a career promotion, a pay raise, because we failed to consider things like hedonic adaptation, where we kind of go back to baseline after something enjoyable happens. We might underestimate the future selling price of an item. Consumers appreciate things differently according to the weather, and we'll get into that in just a moment. What are the consequences of projection bias? We tend to overestimate happiness from a purchase. I might really want that dress. And I think about it, and I think about it, and it seems like it would be just great and really help my wardrobe out and fill in some holes. And then after I purchase it, it doesn't bring me the same thrill as it did thinking about it.
Projection bias also limits our beliefs about progress, growth, and personal change. It can cause us to repeat the past and the present over and over again, because we failed to account for our growth. I promised I would tell you something about the weather. Researchers found that people will buy a car. They'll select the car for the weather. They're influenced by the weather that very day, even if that's not the intended purpose of the car, that the most common situation might not be the weather that day. But we make a mistake of thinking it will always be like that. So if it's bright and sunny, someone might be more inclined to buy a smaller car, or maybe even a convertible. If it's raining or snowing, someone might be more inclined to buy a four wheel drive, an SUV, a truck. Even if they don't really plan on spending too much time in that particular weather. Isn't that wild? The weather will influence what car we buy. This projection bias can cause this gross miscalculation in so many things time, energy, our strategies, her desires, even money outcomes and our feelings. And we can really get stuck on that hedonic treadmill where we think the next thing will make us happy, the next thing will make us happy.
Now, how does this happen? Our current emotional state becomes the anchor point for our tastes. I found some studies indicating that people will overbid on an item if they're given a higher anchor point. You've probably been to a concert where they say suggested donation for the ticket, $10 or $20, and most people will give the suggested amount. I go to the Stern Grove concerts where the tickets are free. Suggested donation $20. I always give $20. If there is just a donation box, I might give just whatever I had in my wallet instead of planning in advance for my $20 per ticket donation. Now, there's nothing wrong with us when we have these anchors happening that we ground into the moment and we imagine it will be like that going forward. Our brains love a shortcut, so when it's decision time, anchoring points really are leveraged as a point of reference. It helps us learn. It helps us make progress. Except when it doesn't because of projection bias. Now it really does make sense that we would have this projection bias. It's difficult to avoid these kinds of thoughts because we need these anchor points.
And our present emotions have this incredible influence over our cognitive process. Think of it this way if you are really thirsty, it becomes extremely difficult to think of anything besides water. Say you're on a hike, you finished your water a couple miles back, you finally make it to a store and you buy a whole bunch of waters, even though realistically you're only going to drink maybe one and you could carry one well over purchase because of our current state. And we fail to consider that after we drink one bottle, we won't be thirsty anymore. Here's another thing that researchers found just being aware of projection bias actually does very little to reduce its effect. Action is necessary. We need a plan and we need a commitment. So why does it keep happening that we use projection bias when we are in a current emotional state? It's hard to imagine we won't always be like that. It's a hallmark of happiness. It's a hallmark of depression or anxiety. It feels difficult to imagine it not feeling that way, and we continue to use whatever our current emotion is as anchor points to predict what we might want in the future or what will happen in the future. And here at The Modern Creative Woman, we talk about values, and that'll be coming up a little bit more, using your values as an anchor point instead of just a current emotion or a current situation. There's an abundance of neuropsychology research now that demonstrates strong emotions can lead to projection bias. And I’ll give you a few examples.
People tend to abandon their investing and their spending plans in the presence of strong emotions. Has that ever happened to you? You felt so happy you thought maybe you'd get a purchase to celebrate. Or maybe you felt so sad. You needed something to cheer you up. And many people will make a purchase, sell a stock, do something different than they planned with their values because of strong emotion. And when we're in a good mood, we can make some pretty big mistakes. Using projection bias, we think, oh, I can easily complete this big task if I'm currently optimistic and well rested, I think, oh, I can get this all done today. Have you ever underestimated that you might get tired while you're working on a big project? There's probably going to be some interruptions. Your dog needs a walk. Phone rings. We also underestimate the changes that we have in our energy as women. We have energy cycles up and down over the course of a month, and unless we're careful, we will fail to understand that our desire has a huge impact on our future selves. We may not feel like it anymore and we want to do something else. We have a craving to go into the kitchen and make chocolate chip cookies instead of continue our work project. We might have a desire that the current wishes no longer fulfill. The problem is when we fail to accurately predict ourselves and usually pretty predictable interruptions or obstacles, we can give up prematurely. We might feel rushed or frustrated that we need more time than we thought.
I have some common sense advice about projection bias that you very much likely have heard. So wait 48 hours before a big purchase. Avoid succumbing to pressure of a salesperson when you make a big purchase. If you're making a smaller purchase, you can step outside the store before you buy. It gives you a few moments to check your values. Check your budget. Surely you've heard this one before. Avoid going to the grocery store on an empty stomach. I went to the grocery store last week on an empty stomach, and I'll tell you, I came home with some delicious snacks. That was not what I had intended to focus on when I was at the grocery store. But everything looked delicious at Trader Joe's and they have the best snacks. I came home with more than I had planned on and less of what I had really planned on. Here's some really great advice that you can use to act as if you can imagine projecting yourself into the future and acting according to that future scenario. And if you have yet to participate in the Vibrant Vision webinar, got a whole workshop all about this. You can find it in the show notes. Now there are some pretty good solutions.
And then there's some pretty great solutions for projection bias. So I want to make sure that I share these with you. The first one is really a two part. It's creating guidelines in advance. For example, creating your budget, setting aside 20 minutes every day to focus on your values or your vibrant vision. Guidelines can also include a shopping list. Prioritizing your values I've shared this example before. If I go to bed a little late, I will always wake up a little later because I have prioritized sleep over anything else that I'm going to do in the morning. I've decided that in advance. I never have to think about it. Another example is putting a cap on holiday spending, setting aside the budget in advance. Here's the second part of this. After you create your guidelines, you have to stick to the plan. Now here's when projection bias gets in the way of these values and plans. Remember it's in the presence of strong emotions, either happy or sad. I was talking with the woman inside the modern creative woman this week, and I shared an example of when the Lehman Brothers closed, and this was in 2008, as the very beginning of a real restructuring of the American stock market, and finances went into quite a tizzy. Stocks fell that day. The Madison Avenue shops did record breaking business. Why everywhere? Everyone was aware that there was this economic downturn, and yet people felt sad. So they abandoned their pre-planned budget and went shopping instead. I recently saw an incredible play. It was a three act play about the Lehman Brothers and telling their story of immigration to the United States, and the rise and the fall of their business. I highly recommend it if it's in your town. Economics gives us a lot of information about this projection bias. As you're making your budget, remember to account for projection bias.
Next, the second little more powerful solution is factoring in time for your life to happen. And that means your changes in energy expected and unexpected interruptions. Yes, you can schedule for the unexpected. A few hours a week of unstructured time lets you not panic when life happens. You also want to factor in time for happy surprises. New opportunities. We can't take a new opportunity if we're scheduled back to back to back to back. You might need more time to think and you might have some changes in what you truly desire. Number three avoid setting arbitrary or unrealistic timelines that are not linked to your values. For example, when I was in school, there was a student who really wanted to graduate before their birthday. Their next big number birthday. And it didn't make sense to really anyone else, right? The goal is to graduate, to understand the material, to become excellent at our work. The goal was not to do something by a big birthday, and so they mistakenly tied what they were doing to this arbitrary timeline. Have you ever done anything like this? I want to get this done before my next birthday. I want to get fit by summer time. I want to find the perfect job for me. Anything that sounds like that is tying. Kind of like arbitrary things to what you really want. You don't want to get fit by the beginning of summer. You want to be fit and healthy and strong. Period. You don't want to find like, the perfect job for you. You want to find a job that fits, that you can grow with. Tying everything to your values makes a significant difference. So number four, have clear value and your vivid vision in mind. If your value is parenting, focus on being the parent you want to be rather than having a tidy room, right? The tidy room is just the content, but your process is being a parent and moving constantly towards your value of being a kind, loving, supportive, helpful parent. Keep everything linked to what's most important to you and not to the arbitrary stuff. Tie it to your vibrant vision and it will make more sense what you're doing the next one.
Think big enough. Remember that quote from the beginning of the episode? You have to think big so that there's a clear direction for you to go. And finally, linking your goal setting, that's kind of the strategies specifically to your values and your future self. You can avoid the projection bias by really having a clear idea of what your future self might want, what kind of interruptions she has, what kind of spontaneous activities she might like to enjoy, and making space for those things. So ask yourself, what is one thing that you can do to really navigate projection bias in your life? And I think one way to imagine this is understand all the times when projection bias has interfered. With your progress or your happiness, and then see how you can take that learning experience and apply it to the future. How can I avoid projection bias in the future?
I'd like to wrap up today's episode with another quote. And it's from Katharine Graham. Do you know who she is? She said to love what you do and feel like it matters. How could anything be more fun to love what you do and feel like it matters? Those are both choices to love what you do. Could be parenting, going to work, tidying your house, making your bed, and to feel like it matters because it's important to you to raise up the next generation. Because you value making a contribution at work. Because you like having a clean house. When you love it and feel like it matters, it's tied to your values. Then you're starting to have fun. And let me you a little bit more about Mrs. Graham. She was the first American woman who was a fortune 500 CEO. Can you guess what she's the CEO of? It was the Washington Post, and she went from what she called a doormat way to the most powerful woman in journalism. Now, her father had purchased the Washington Post in like a fire sale. They were going out of business. And gave it to his daughter, and her husband and her husband became the CEO of the Washington Post, and he died rather unexpectedly. And it was all set up that she would be the CEO. Now, she had some experience in journalism prior to becoming the CEO of the post, but she admitted she had no experience in business. She writes about having to practice greeting people at a holiday party. She stood in front of the mirror and practice saying hello and glad to see you. She was so nervous. She really didn't know how this first event was going to go. So never underestimate the power of a little bit of mirror work. So do you recognize her name yet? She was the woman who said, against the advice of the board, were publishing the Pentagon Papers, and that that was about the US involvement in Vietnam. And then she said, we're printing the Watergate scandal. She was under so much pressure from the government, from her board of directors, Supreme court got involved. She became a champion for free speech in the press. How this is what she says about how she did it. How she went from doormat wife to the most powerful woman in journalism. She says, quote, I put one foot in front of the other, shut my eyes and stepped off the edge. That's incredible. She took an incredible risk in so many ways. By taking that position, she could have not taken it at all. She could have passed it on to someone else. And then she became a champion in journalism.
What does all of this science have to do with creativity? Learning to recognize your projection bias is a creative act. It requires you to see things quite differently than your usual way of taking action. Now, knowing about this gives you a huge advantage over your future actions. When you have tied your work to your values and your vibrant vision. You can start to anticipate what's happening and look for projection bias. Actively seek out in your mind where you're using this. I think one of the most powerful ways to explore our mind, of course, is through art, collage or painting or oil pastels. I think would do the trick here. If you take the next step with your vibrant vision, unpack where your blinders are with that projection bias. Now, I would love for you to come join us inside the modern Creative Woman community, and July is all about what to do next with your vibrant vision. That is. The whole focus of the month is taking action, looking for potential pitfalls such as this bias that we've been talking about, and taking action that's in alignment with your values, with strategy and clarity, and preparing for the expected and unexpected obstacles that will come your way. I hope to see you inside the membership. It is the most unique community, full of creativity and joy and fun and support. You can find the link in the show notes. Message me and I would be happy to chat with you about what you could do inside the membership. Of course, if you're interested in taking it a little further and want to go to Paris, let me know and I'll tell you all about it.
Have a wonderful rest of your week. Now that you know about how to use your creativity, what will you create? Want more? Subscribe to the Modern Creative Woman digital magazine. It's absolutely free, and it comes out when some men and I know you can get a lot out of the podcast and the digital magazine. Yet when you're ready to take it to the next level and want you to know you have options inside the membership, and if you're interested in a private consultation, please feel free to book a call with me. Even if you just have some questions, go ahead and book a call. My contact is in the show notes and you can always message me on Instagram. Do come find me in the Modern Creative Women on Instagram, Facebook, and Pinterest at Doctor Amy. Because if you like what you're hearing on the Modern Creative Woman podcast, I want to give you the scoop on how you can support the podcast. You can be an ambassador and share the podcast link with three of your friends. You can be a community supporter by leaving a five star review. If you think it's worth the five stars, and you can become a Gold Star supporter for as little as $3 a month, all those links are in the show notes. Remember to grab your free copy of the 21 Day Gratitude Challenge. The link is in the show notes and you can find it at Modern Creative women.com. Have a wonderful week and I cannot wait to talk with you in the next episode.
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