GNED 1103 - Chapter 04 - The Scientific method - Part 2

Ready to dive into the fascinating world of scientific exploration and inquiry? We promise to keep it light, relatable, and engaging as we navigate through key scientific concepts like variables, cause and effect, correlation, and causality. Picture yourself baking a cake while learning how tweaking a variable can create a ripple effect on the result. Just like adding a pinch of sugar or altering the baking time can change the cake's taste and texture, you'll discover how the interplay between independent and dependent variables can influence the outcome of a scientific experiment. So, be sure to put on your detective hat as we embark on this fun and enlightening journey!

Moving on, we'll be cracking the code of correlation and causation, debunking myths and unearthing hidden truths. Ever wondered if ice cream sales and sunglasses purchases are connected? Well, we're going to delve into that, highlighting that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. As we play around with independent, dependent, and controlled variables, you'll unfold how these elements construct cause and effect relationships in scientific experiments. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to deepen your understanding of the scientific method. This podcast promises to be a thrilling ride into the intriguing world of scientific research and inquiry!

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:15

Welcome to Chapter 04, the Scientific Method, part 2. In this section, we will be delving into some essential terms that will help us understand the scientific method better. We'll start with what variables are, move on to their relation with cause and effect, and then explore the ideas of correlation and causality. Ready to get started? Transitioning from our last chapter, we continue our journey into the world of science, this time narrowing our focus specifically on the scientific method. As we venture further, our first stop is building our scientific vocabulary, beginning with an intriguing term variables. Now, what exactly are variables? Well, let's paint a picture here.

Speaker 1: 0:58

Imagine you're in your kitchen baking a delicious cake. Those ingredients in front of you, be it eggs, flour or sugar, can alter the cake's flavor. Right. These ingredients, which can change the outcome based on their quantity, are excellent analogies to what we call variables. Make a tiny tweak in any of these and you might just end up with a cake that tastes a tad different.

Speaker 1: 1:22

From variables. We effortlessly transition into the world of cause and effect relationships. Consider this if we generously add more sugar, which is our cause, the resultant cake tastes much sweeter, which is our effect. This principle applies across the board, even with other variables. Take baking time. For instance, let the cake sit in the oven a tad longer than usual and there's a good chance it might turn out a bit on the drier side.

Speaker 1: 1:50

Now, connecting from cause and effect, we introduce a new term correlation. At times you might notice two events or things changing in tandem. Think about the increasing number of candles on your birthday cake each year, mirroring your age. As the candles multiply, your age does the same. In scientific parlance, we refer to this as a positive correlation. Building on this understanding, we arrive at our last stop for this section causality. Within the scientific method, establishing causality is a lot like solving a puzzle. It means discerning if altering one variable leads to a direct change in another. In simpler terms, it's about linking the cause directly to its effect. To give you a fun example, let's revisit our birthday scenario. Do more candles on your cake make you age faster? Naturally, the answer is no. It's the passing of your birthdays that adds to your age, not the candles. In conclusion, as we immerse ourselves deeper into these scientific concepts, our upcoming discussions will revolve around the meticulous steps scientists undertake to ensure their results stand the test of accuracy and reliability. So strap in as we embark on uncovering these fascinating facets of science.

Speaker 1: 3:09

Welcome to section 01, quick review understanding cause and effect in science. In this segment, we'll delve deeper into the concept of cause and effect, drawing connections from everyday examples and aligning them with the world of science. Get ready to journey from the simplicity of baking a cake to the complex mechanisms that drive our universe. Picking up from our previous discussion, we're zooming in on cause and effect relationships in the realm of science. Do you recall our cake baking analogy? Just to jog your memory?

Speaker 1: 3:40

Cause and effect revolves around the idea that a specific action or event, which we term as the cause, instigates a subsequent occurrence, which is the effect. Let's visualize this with a simple analogy. Imagine a line of dominoes perfectly arranged. The moment you exert a slight push on the very first domino, what happens? That singular push the cause triggers a cascade, making all subsequent dominoes topple over in succession. The effect. This illustrates the interconnectedness of events, where one occurrence sets the stage for the next. Drawing parallels from this, the intricate world of science thrives on cause and effect relationships.

Speaker 1: 4:19

In many ways, scientists mirror detectives With a magnifying glass in hand. They scour for clues, endeavoring to decode the mysteries that our universe poses. They're often found deep in thought, mulling over questions like what orchestrates the descent of rain or what cosmic dance leads to the moon's ever-changing silhouette in our night sky. Understanding these cause and effect dynamics is pivotal. It's akin to having a compass that points us in the direction of knowledge. Armed with this understanding, we're better equipped to anticipate outcomes in varied scenarios, allowing us to make informed choices that are beneficial not just for us, but for our blue planet.

Speaker 1: 5:00

Looking ahead, our forthcoming discussion promises to be riveting. We will unearth the methods scientists employ to validate that these cause and effect relationships aren't just flukes but are genuine occurrences. Moreover, we'll be weaving these notions of cause and effect with the concept of variables, a cornerstone in scientific investigations. As we forge ahead, remember to channel your inner detective, because the world of science, filled with mysteries, awaits our exploration. Welcome to Section 02, the exciting world of variables and scientific experiments. In this section, we will unravel the concept of variables. Drawing inspiration from our previous cake baking analogy, we'll delve deep into different types of variables, their importance in experiments and their influence on cause and effect relationships. So let's embark on this enlightening journey, building on what we've learned. Do you remember the cake baking example we discussed earlier? Just like those varying ingredients in baking.

Speaker 1: 6:00

In science, we have elements that change, aptly termed as variables. Picture variables as the myriad ingredients you might mix into a cake. By definition, variables can denote any trait, characteristic or circumstance that has the potential to shift or modify as we further delve into the topic. Experiments generally encompass three kinds of variables independent, dependent and controlled. The independent variable might remind you of our decision to introduce chocolate chips to our cake mixture. We dominate this choice, determining the precise amount of chocolate to infuse. In contrast, the dependent variable mirrors the outcome of our decision Drawing from the cake example. It's the chocolateiness that results from the chocolate chips added. Last, but certainly not least, we encounter controlled variables. Think of these as constants, like maintaining a fixed oven temperature and baking duration, irrespective of the chocolate chip quantity.

Speaker 1: 6:58

Venturing forward from our earlier discussion on cause and effect, variables provide a deeper insight. The alteration of one element our independent variable or cause influences another aspect the dependent variable or effect, while some facets remain static controlled variables. Let's further dissect these intriguing components of our scientific exploration, diving deeper into the independent variable. When discussing the independent variable, it signifies the element that a scientist intentionally adjusts. It's crucial to keep changes singular to prevent ambiguity. Say, in our cake context, should we alter both chocolate chips and sugars simultaneously? Discerning which modification impacted the flavor becomes challenging. Similarly, scientific tests that modify multiple variables can muddle the findings. Drawing an example from our furry friends, let's assume we're examining the correlation between a dog size and its food consumption. Altering multiple variables like dog size and feeding time simultaneously can lead to inconclusive results.

Speaker 1: 8:05

It's evident that the independent variable, the variable we adjust, plays a pivotal role in our investigative endeavors in science. Let's continue unearthing the dynamics of these variables, understanding the dependent variable, switching our attention to the dependent variable. It's the component that scientists meticulously observe, gauging its response to the independent variable's adjustments. If we recall our dog illustration, the amount they consume is our dependent variable, our tangible evidence. The term dependent is apt as its values might hinge on the independent variable. It's the manifested effect influenced by the changes in the independent variable, helping answer our core query. Each step we take in understanding the dependent variable narrows down our focus on the cause and effect relations that form the crux of our discussions.

Speaker 1: 8:56

Stay engaged as we keep unveiling these captivating nuances, the role of control variables and experiments Now shedding light on control variables. These are constituents scientists diligently ensure remain consistent throughout experiments. These variables are pivotal to distilling clear outcomes. If uncontrolled, they could skew the experiment's results. For instance, if regaging the influence of a dog's size on its food intake, several constants like initial hunger levels, food type and its palatability, should be uniform to prevent data discrepancies. In a cake making scenario, varying baking temperatures for two cakes, even with identical chocolate chip amounts, might yield different results.

Speaker 1: 9:38

The aim is to discern the explicit impact of the independent variable by ensuring all else remains unaltered. While some might coin them constant variables, understanding them is paramount to demystifying cause and effect dynamics in our quest for knowledge, measurable variables, the essence of robust experiments. For truly robust experiments, it's imperative for scientists to quantify each variable, ensuring a numerical representation. Some variables, like weight, are straightforward to measure. However, imagine an abstract variable like love. Its intangibility poses a conundrum. Such abstract variables, while integral to our personal lives, defy scientific measurability. We need tangible, quantifiable variables to derive clear and trustworthy outcomes, reinforcing our grasp on the cause and effect relationships. We're delving into tying it all together at a symphony of variables as our exploration continues.

Speaker 1: 10:36

Discerning the interplay of independent, dependent and controlled variables becomes instrumental when we discern a tangible connection between our cause independent variable and effect dependent variable. We're potentially unveiling a cause and effect relation Using our cake analogy augmenting sugar levels might not just sweeten our cake but also alter its color. Both color and sweetness then emerge as dependent variables. However, controlled variables are crucial for an unequivocal understanding of cause and effect. Maintaining consistency, like in baking temperature and duration, ensures that external factors don't affect our core study. Prioritizing measurable variables is quintessential for garnering lucid, credible data facilitating informed conclusions regarding the relationships we're analyzing. As we plunge deeper into this wondrous world of science, understanding these variables equips us to unearth-mesmerizing facts.

Speaker 1: 11:32

Welcome to Section 03, causality's the Link Between Cause and Effect. In this segment, we're diving deeper into understanding the foundational bond between causes and their respective effects. Building upon our previous discussions on cause and effect and variables, this section aims to clarify the concept of causality. Hello again, dear listeners. Building upon our exploration of variables, let's now delve into causality. This profound term signifies the relationship where an effect directly stems from its cause, thereby creating what we commonly refer to as a causal relationship. In simpler words, causality gives us a framework of logical reasoning. It assures us that, once we introduce a specific cause, there's a reliable outcome or effect we can anticipate.

Speaker 1: 12:21

Recall our earlier discussions where we embarked on scientific explorations. You might remember pondering over questions that hinted at these potential cause and effect dynamics. Questions like if we add more sugar, will the cake become sweeter or does a dog-size influence how much it eats, are quintessential examples. Taking a step back, let's consider the scientific method Just like we discussed. Imagine being a detective with a magnifying glass in hand. Our mission To trace and establish causality, that tangible link between the independent variable our cause and the dependent variable our effect. Let's return to our delightful cake baking experiment for a moment. In this scenario, the quantity of sugar we incorporate acts as the independent variable, essentially our cause. The resulting sweetness of the cake then emerges as the dependent variable, our anticipated effect. Remember how we meticulously controlled other factors like baking temperature and time. It was all to decipher whether tweaking the sugar amount genuinely impacts the cake's sweetness.

Speaker 1: 13:28

In concluding this section, it's imperative to realize that deciphering causality is at the very heart of our scientific journey. Not only does it enhance our comprehension of the intricate world around us, but by grasping how these cause and effect relationships function, we're empowered to make informed predictions and innovatively tackle challenges. Stay tuned as our journey continues, weaving together the threads of science and discovery. Welcome to section 04,. Dear Listeners, today we'll journey deeper into the mechanics of understanding cause and effect, deciphering how we can establish causation.

Speaker 1: 14:03

Building on from our previous discussion about causality, let's dive into the intricacies of establishing causation. As many of you might agree, discerning a concrete cause and effect relationship, especially outside of the realm of physical sciences, can often feel like navigating a maze. Even when we're brimming with determination, the path to achieving a 100% proof of causality may appear to be lined with fog. However, this pinnacle of certainty is what galvanizes scientists the world over. Understandably, the weight of our findings in the scientific community largely hinges on how close we can inch towards this apex of clarity.

Speaker 1: 14:41

Now let's unpack the ingredients of our evidence recipe. What exactly constitutes convincing evidence for causality? For us to compellingly argue that a particular independent variable our cause wields influence over a dependent variable the effect we lean on three pillars of evidence Association, slash, correlation. First and foremost, we seek a tangible connection between the cause and its presumed effect. Drawing from our sweet illustration in the prior section, if our aim is to decipher the influence of sugar on a cake's sweetness, then a discernible pattern should emerge. Ideally, as we sprinkle in more sugar, the cake should serenade our taste buds with increased sweetness. Direction of influence, temporal factors, the timeline matters. It's imperative that the cause precedes the effect in sequence. Reflecting on our cake analogy, this means that the act of introducing sugar our cause takes place before we engage in the sensory delight of tasting the baked cake. The effect Nonspuriousness.

Speaker 1: 15:43

Venturing further, we must be wary of mirages on our scientific journey. The observed interplay between our cause and effect shouldn't be a mere whimsical dance of variables or serendipitous occurrence. This is where our safety nets, the controlled variables, come to our rescue. By keeping these variables steadfastly consistent, we ensure they remain mere spectators and not clandestine influencers of our results. To put it in the context of our cake experiment, if a surge in sugar blesses us with a sweeter cake, this delightful transformation should not be orchestrated by a silent maestro, like a fluctuating baking temperature. By keeping a vigilant eye on aspects like temperature, we assure ourselves that the sweetness crescendo is attributed solely to sugar and not any backstage elements.

Speaker 1: 16:32

Here I'd like to spotlight the term spurious. It's akin to a chameleon, appearing genuine but often concealing its true nature. In our scientific realm, a spurious result is akin to a mirage. It might beckon with the promise of truth, but its roots may not align with our initial beliefs. By meticulously adhering to these three criteria, we fortify our case for a cause and effect bond. In doing so, we further illuminate the mysterious corridors of scientific phenomena, inching ever closer to the heart of understanding. And with that we conclude this section, further enhancing our toolkit of understanding cause and effect. Stay tuned as we build upon these foundations in the upcoming sections.

Speaker 1: 17:14

Welcome to the next enlightening segment. Dear Listeners, building upon our previously established understanding of causation, we're now going to delve deeper into the very first step of this process establishing association or correlation. Let's unravel how this crucial step sets the tone for our entire scientific inquiry. To paint a clearer picture, consider embarking on a journey to trace the roots of cause and effect. Remember our delicious anecdotes about sugar's influence on cake's sweetness and the correlation between a dog's size and its food intake. These serve as illustrative signposts guiding our way.

Speaker 1: 17:52

The first milestone on this investigative path is to unearth an association or correlation. Interestingly, this discovery often commences during the budding phase of our scientific method, where research takes center stage. Imagine donning a detective's hat During this research phase. We sift through the annals of scientific literature, probing prior experiments or studies pioneered by our fellow researchers, our goal To ascertain if there's already a documented linkage between our proposed cause and effect. Circling back to our guiding examples, have previous inquisitors delved into the relationship between sugar's quantity and cake's sweetness, or perhaps the correlation between a dog's stature and its appetite? Should such explorations exist, what conclusions have they drawn? Now, if our investigations draw blank and no clear correlation unfurls, it's nature's gentle nudge for us to reconsider our initial question. Equipped with fresh insights, we might need to recalibrate our hypothesis, ensuring it resonates harmoniously with established knowledge.

Speaker 1: 18:59

Having cemented an association from our preliminary inquiries, our journey progresses to the experimental stage of the scientific method. Within this realm, our cause, or the independent variable and its alleged effect, the dependent variable, undergo rigorous testing. Let's envisage the scenarios as the sugar scale tips up or down. Does our cake reward us with corresponding sweetness, highs or lows? Venturing into the canine world, do the gentle giants truly out-eat their petite counterparts? Should consistent patterns crystallize, it's a reassuring affirmation that we're steering our ship in the right direction, inching closer to solidifying a cause and effect relationship, for instance.

Speaker 1: 19:42

The journey of discovering association or correlation is akin to laying the foundational bricks for our scientific edifice. It's the linchpin that supports our ensuing investigative steps. Stay engaged as we further dive into the next layers of establishing causation in the subsequent sections. The quest for knowledge continues. Greetings once again, dear listeners, in the tapestry of our scientific exploration. Having previously journeyed through the concepts of causation and association, it's now time to zoom into a specific strand correlation. Let's dive into understanding the intricate nuances of this connection between variables, building on our foundational knowledge.

Speaker 1: 20:23

Correlation stands as a beacon highlighting the relationship between two variables. We visualize this when one variable undergoes a transformation, the other tends to dance along in tandem. Reflecting on our delightful cake and canine examples, the dance between the sugar levels in a cake and its resulting sweetness, or the tango between a dog's size and its appetite perfectly illustrate the choreography of correlation in action. Imagine meticulously measuring and tweaking the sugar content in a cake mix. If pouring in some extra sugar consistently yields a more luscious cake, we can proudly declare a positive correlation between sugar quantity and cake's sweetness. In another realm, if our observation confirms that larger dogs indeed have heartier appetites, it's evident there's a positive correlation between these two variables. However, sometimes the dance partners don't move in sync. By adjusting one variable let's label it element X results in no discernible impact on another variable, termed element Y, then these two elements are like strangers on the dance floor not correlated. Put simply, if tweaking one element doesn't resonate with observable changes in another, then the two are independent of each other.

Speaker 1: 21:38

While correlation might seem like a magic wand hinting at causation, here's a crucial caveat correlation does not automatically wear the crown of causation. Observing a relationship between two variables doesn't signify that one masterfully dictates the performance of the other. However, spotting these correlations acts as a signpost, guiding us towards the alleyways of potential causative relationships. Consider this intriguing observation soaring sails of ice creams are often accompanied by skyrocketing sails of sunglasses. Here we discern a clear correlation. But wait, do ice creams magically compel people to splurge on sunglasses? Unlikely. Instead, it's the sunny embrace of summer, where sun-soaked folks crave icy treats and shaded eyes, that plays the puppeteer here In this ice cream sunglasses conundrum. Although the two sails' metrics move hand in hand, one doesn't orchestrate the other's movements. But pinpointing this correlation sparks curiosity, nudging researchers to delve deeper and ultimately unearthing the true maestro of summer's warmth.

Speaker 1: 22:45

As we navigate the maze of our scientific endeavors, probing and discerning correlations becomes instrumental. It equips us with a compass directing our quest and igniting the thrill of unveiling the myriad relationships that stitch the fabric of our universe. As we continue our expedition into the realms of scientific inquiry, stay engaged and anticipate deeper dives into more interconnected themes. The voyage of Discovery beckons Welcome back, esteemed listeners.

Speaker 1: 23:14

Having delved deep into the world of correlation, it's now time to embark on the next stage of our scientific saga the crucial step of determining the direction of influence, often referred to as the temporal factor. This stage is pivotal as it ensures the sequence of events and our cause and effect narrative aligns correctly. Let's untangle this intricate web together, venturing further from mere association. The temporal factor takes center stage in our quest to uncover genuine cause and effect relationships. Remember, identifying a dance between variables isn't sufficient. It's imperative to decipher which dance move leads and which follows. In simpler terms, the cause has to set the stage before the effect makes its grand appearance.

Speaker 1: 23:59

Ponder upon the realm of motivational speaking. These speakers often shine a spotlight on self-belief, positing it as the magic potion for success. We're often dazzled by successful figures, from charismatic politicians to captivating actors exuding confidence and heaps. But here's a question we must grapple with Is their radiant confidence the springboard for their success, or is it the glittering trophy they earned. Post-success, let's whisk ourselves into a more tangible domain. One of culinary delights Say.

Speaker 1: 24:31

We're on a quest to discern whether the baking temperature, our independent variable, plays maestro to our cake's texture the dependent variable. Now, to claim with confidence that the temperature sways the cake's texture, it's essential to ensure our oven's warmth changed prior to any transformation in the cake's feel. Crafting a robust experiment becomes our wand here. By artfully tweaking the independent variable, in this case baking temperature, and keenly observing its serenade on the dependent variable here being the cake's texture, we sketch a clear sequence of events. Such meticulous choreography ensures the oven's temperature shift serenades the stage before the cake's texture reacts.

Speaker 1: 25:12

Yet our scientific odyssey demands vigilance. Its paramount to shield our experiment from other variables. Whispers, imagine baking cakes. Sticking to a consistent recipe, using identical ingredients and maintaining a fixed baking duration ensures our spotlight remains solely on the temperature, shunning away other potential influencers. But what about instances where the shadows of the past lone large, such as researching the intricate dance between drinking patterns and the tendrils of depression? Here the temporal narrative is more intricate. In such mazes, researchers often employ diverse tools, from case studies to heartfelt interviews. Such methods help etch out the timeline, answering dilemmas like whether the clouds of depression hovered first or the pull of drinking did.

Speaker 1: 25:59

By intricately weaving the temporal factor into our experiment blueprint, adhering religiously to the scientific method and vigilantly shielding our research from lurking variables, we bolster our grasp over the cause and effect paradigm. It's this rigorous process that lights our path, guiding us towards groundbreaking discoveries in the vast universe of scientific inquiry. As we proceed, hold onto your curiosity and prepare to plunge deeper into the intricacies of the scientific process. The horizon of discovery is vast and beckoning, and so, fellow explorers of science, we reach the third leg of our journey into establishing cause and effect relationships, addressing non-spuriousness. This might sound like a term plucked from the annals of a medieval alchemist, but its essence is very much rooted in the 21st century scientific pursuit of truth. Imagine, if you will, a mysterious map promising untold treasures. On this map are various paths, some leading directly to the treasure and others to misleading dead ends. The challenge of non-spuriousness is similar. It's about ensuring the path we tread leads genuinely to the truth and not to any deceptive detours.

Speaker 1: 27:09

So what does spuriousness mean in this context? Essentially, it's a mirage. It's the illusion of a direct connection between two variables when, in reality, a hidden third variable pulls the strings orchestrating this perceived dance. Imagine a steady measuring the fascinating correlation between a child shoe size and their academic prowess. At first glance there might seem to be an uncanny connection. As shoe sizes increase, so does academic knowledge. Yet surely the vastness of one's footwear doesn't fuel one's academic achievements, correct it doesn't? This connection is a spurious one. The silent maestro here is age. Older children naturally sport larger shoes and also have had more time in school, leading to increased knowledge. The shoe size and knowledge correlation in this case is but a mirage, a relationship without genuine roots.

Speaker 1: 28:07

Such deceptive correlations serve as stark reminders that in science, skepticism is a valued companion. A mere observation of a relationship is no surefire evidence of a direct cause and effect link. There are often shadowy figures, these third variables, lurking behind the scenes, influencing what we observe. But fear not, for there are tools at our disposal to unveil and confront these shadowy influencers. From background research, much like a detective piecing together clues from previous cases, we must immerse ourselves in prior studies and insights. This helps illuminate potential culprits, third variables that might be silently skewing our results, controlled experiments it's in these controlled environments where we wield true scientific power by carefully tweaking our primary variable and ensuring all else remains constant.

Speaker 1: 28:59

We can hone in on genuine relationships undistracted by outside influences, control variables think of these as the guardians of our experiment. They're the constants, the unwavering elements ensuring our focus remains solely on our primary variables and their interplay. Well-designed experiment procedure this is the foundation of our scientific endeavor. From collecting data meticulously to employing appropriate statistical tools, a robust and consistent methodology is our beacon, ensuring we stay on the path of truth. In the grand tapestry of science, the quest for genuine cause and effect relationships is among its most intricate threads. Yet with rigorous methods and an ever-watchful life for non-spuriousness, we can confidently chart our course, steering clear of misleading mirages and uncovering the genuine marvels of our universe. Join us as we continue our voyage ever deeper into the intricacies of scientific discovery.

Speaker 1: 29:56

So, fellow explorers of science, as we close this chapter on non-spuriousness and the intricate dance of variables, there's one final message to impart. In our journey through scientific truths, methods and mirages, it's easy to get lost in the complexities and nuances, but remember, much like the unyielding constants in our experiments, there's an unwavering truth about each one of you. Remember you're awesome. The same rigorous passion and skepticism that you bring to understanding the world around you can be directed inwards, reflecting on your own potential and capabilities. These principles of science aren't just for understanding the external world, but also for appreciating the boundless universe within each one of us. Now go out and be the wonderful people I know you are. Harness the lessons from this chapter and every chapter in your life to carve out your unique path, confidently navigating through mirages and towards genuine truths. As we continue our scientific voyage, know that each step you take is a testament to your awe-inspiring capabilities. Until our next exploration, keep shining and keep questioning.