Fed Up Rates Down! How the Real Estate Market Reacted to the Fed Pivot

Ever wonder how to navigate the fluctuating tides of Seattle's real estate market? Join us as we decode the mysteries alongside mortgage lender, Brian Laflame, shedding light on the recent actions of the Federal Reserve and their impact on interest rates. We dive into the rapid rise in home purchase applications and how potential homebuyers can turn this opportunity to their advantage. But don't just wait for rock bottom rates - we explain why that may not be your best strategy.

Strap in as we journey through the tumultuous seas of 2020 and 2021's real estate market, a battlefield where buyers were offering jaw-dropping incentives just to secure a home, and where new construction prices were being undercut by resale homes due to inventory shortages. We debunk common myths, like lower interest rates meaning more inventory - spoiler alert, it's the opposite! And we offer some sage advice on how to be savvy and strategic, turning this challenging market into a successful long-term investment.

But the real estate game is more than just the buyers and sellers - there's a whole world of supply and demand at play. We discuss the dwindling supply of homes over the past decade and a half, and how it's shaped the market. Brian Laflame takes us behind the scenes of a recent Fed meeting to decode its impact on interest rates. Plus, we break down the Doft plot’s significance and the Fed's acknowledgment of weakening job data. So whether you're a seasoned real estate pro, or just dipping your toes in the housing market, this episode is a treasure trove of information, tips, and insights. Tune in to make sure you're well-equipped to navigate this sea of opportunities.

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Aaron Morrow Realtor Serving (King, Peirce, & Snohomish counties)
📱Call or Text: 206-451-3771
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This is my Intro to every Podcast and YouTube video 

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:11

Okay, hey everybody, it's Aaron Maro here Just figuring out how to mute myself here. I've got feedback coming through the system here, so there we go. Now I've muted myself. Okay, fantastic, I am live. Okay, let's see here. Hold on one second. So let me bring Brian on right now so we can chat here. Okay, brian, we're here. Round three, episode three here. Hello everybody. Yeah, definitely Again. Aaron Maro here. Local rotator in the greater Seattle area. Brian Laflame here, local lender for all of Washington state here. Episode three of the living in the greater Seattle area podcast here. We're here to talk more about what the feds doing in the interest rates and all that good stuff. So I'm glad. One cool new thing that we're doing is we were able to hook up Instagram now. So that was that little glitch me trying to figure out how to do that in the computer, because I've got TikTok over here, I got Instagram over here and we are multi streaming Facebook, linkedin and I've got clapper on here, which I'm sure a lot of you are like. What is clapper?

Speaker 2: 1:52

Can you imagine somebody from like 1992 listening to you right now?

Speaker 1: 1:58

I know I'm not even having no idea.

Speaker 2: 2:00

They're like, I thought I spoke English, but what is he talking about?

Speaker 1: 2:05

All the kid is on clapper. Actually, the people on clapper are late to the party because they're like what? Yeah, I have to stream clapper on my phone. So, they're not the ones that get all this stream key on my multiple monitors set up.

Speaker 2: 2:18

Good to see you.

Speaker 1: 2:19

Brian, it's near the end of the week, so yeah.

Speaker 2: 2:22

End of the week. It was a great week. It was Fed week and the Fed helped us out big time this week which they have not done for a long time. Yes, Today was this week was a great week. Last week was a great week. We talked last week about all the data that had come out with PMI, CPI, ABC, DEFG, unemployment, jobs numbers, all that stuff last week, and then this week we had the Fed, which was a huge, huge, huge increase in jobs.

Speaker 1: 2:56

We had in the past we had stocks, we had inflation and we had the Fed. Great Cool. It was amazing.

Speaker 1: 3:02

Yeah, Well, I think you are definitely our resident specialist that can talk more into what's going on with them and you know how the market's reacting. I actually have a little bit more to even share right now. I think the markets I know on the last episode I shared how you know it's starting to pick up. You know there is this house in Des Moines that one of my clients wanted to Now, but they're out of town and I kept trying to convince them hey, let me, let me go show this to you, you know, virtually, to see if, maybe, if it's even a possibility to try to get under contract, so then we could at least get the inspection going or whatnot. But they definitely weren't having it. They wanted to wait till they got back in town, which is totally fine.

Speaker 1: 3:47

I set up the, the showing for them. Um, for when they got back in town, you know, I had that communication with the listing agent. He said you know, of course I kept checking showing time every day and the activity started picking up right now. And on that house in particular it went under contract the night before that I was gonna show it, so that one got napped In some areas. It's not like we're seeing yet where there's four offers on the table right. But there are plenty of areas where a house, a really good house, gets listed and within four days it gets a really good, solid offer. That seller, based on how this market's been going, is gonna jump on that offer and they're not waiting to see what other offers are gonna come right now, just because of how things have been over the last nine months to a year.

Speaker 2: 4:47

Yeah, it's taken a while for sellers to understand that we've reached the bottom and are coming up from here, and so, yeah, you'll still get some jumpy sellers that will take an offer just as an offer, which is, if you're a buyer, really good in this market. This started about six weeks ago, right after Halloween. November 1st is when we saw our first big drop and for the last four weeks, mortgage purchase applications have increased week over week over week. So, as rates have started to go down, like we talked about last week, more people are entering this market, looking at buying a house, even though it is the holiday season, even though this is normally a quiet time, like you talked about, you can find a deal In most normal years because not a lot of people are selling, not all the people are buying. People are mostly hibernating for the winter and especially around the holidays, this post pandemic world that we're in, we're still finding out what that new normal looks like.

Speaker 2: 5:44

Cyclical real estate is not as cyclical as it used to be. We had and we had new homesale or, excuse me, existing home sales and mortgage purchase application data spike last year in January, which is incredible. We went from a seasonal 4.1 to 4.5 million homes in the beginning of the year last year, which is what was projected out based off that activity Rates went up and stopped that and we're ending at about 3.8 million. But people right now, as rates move down, are moving into the market and we have heard over and over and over again you and I, both from buyers that are on the fence saying I'm gonna wait till rates come down and then I'm gonna buy. Well, that's happening. It's happening?

Speaker 1: 6:26

No, it's currently happening.

Speaker 2: 6:27

right now, your last opportunity.

Speaker 1: 6:29

You're in that market right now.

Speaker 2: 6:30

Yeah, yeah, you're not gonna wait till you're at the bottom because nobody knows what that bottom will be. But as rates come down, we're seeing activities spike up. You're seeing houses that we're sitting and they and clients thought, hey, I can go out for the weekend and you're saying, no, you can't now. And then it's borne out when that house eventually sells. That has been sitting on the market for a while because the market is moving and shifting earlier than usual because it's so interest rate and Fed dependent. The market is so Fed dependent right now and we can go into a ton of technicals. It'll bore everybody about how you can see the difference between Fed trading and normal market trading. But the market is so Fed dependent that as rates come down, even home buyers are watching what the Fed says, watching what the bond market does, watching what interest rates do. The interest in that is at all time highs and now that they see it moving down, like we've been telling them, they're moving into the market. So it's about to become a really crowded market.

Speaker 1: 7:29

Yeah, no, seriously, I'm talking to a ton of buyers that have been they sort of sideline themselves since, I would say, coming out of the beginning of 2022. When stuff started creeping up with the interest rates, they really were like, okay, I don't like where these interest rates are going. We're going to rent for a while. And a lot of them still are like, oh man, now all these rates are so high and they're starting to come back down. Aaron, how about we just keep waiting? How about we just keep waiting to ride that way?

Speaker 2: 8:08

How does that work out for you so far?

Speaker 1: 8:11

Well, I just keep thinking back to, I think, the worst time that I there was. That I mean I know it was super competitive all through the late 2020, 2021, was like a bloodbath, right, but there was man I am not used to swinging out of the gates so strong in a January like January 2021 was Like I thought some of my buyers that I was working with I thought no problem, this is going to be super easy, we're going to, we can get you within four houses. We'll show you four houses, we'll get you into that house. No, like, especially on the East side, it was, I mean, these. I'm glad these buyers stuck it out and we pulled out all the stops, but like it's almost like buyers were having to offer like their firstborn kid or you know, like if they didn't like their fourth you know some of these people having six children.

Speaker 1: 9:05

You know like you know that sort of thing right. But try to think about who's my fourth yeah who's your?

Speaker 2: 9:14

you're like wait which?

Speaker 1: 9:15

one Right, I'm not in names most days. I do have a rule for the kids.

Speaker 2: 9:19

If I say your name, you're the one who's not in trouble, guaranteed If something's happening and I, dad, voice and I say your name. I promise I'm not getting your name right the first time, it's just not happening. I've called kids by the dog's name before.

Speaker 1: 9:33

Oh gosh.

Speaker 2: 9:33

So I'm like I'm not going to get my name right, oh gosh so really yeah, yeah, awesome yeah.

Speaker 1: 9:41

So I mean, those are, those are kind of those. Those are experiences that I had going through 2021. So I'm I'm prepped for worst case scenarios. Now, of course, I'm hoping that we don't enter a market like that, but I mean, imagine that now we're dealing with a situation where, if we have that much competition at these interest rates, at these prices now, because prices have not softened enough, because of just the prices have gone up.

Speaker 2: 10:11

Yeah, prices are up here Across the board.

Speaker 1: 10:13

Prices have gone up. Now the only thing that has sat long enough, you know, I mean new construction and inventory, softened a little bit as far as like how much they had.

Speaker 2: 10:30

Well, yeah, and for the first time in gosh I don't remember exactly how long I was reading about this the other day and researching it New construction has dipped below resale home pricing.

Speaker 1: 10:41

Yes.

Speaker 2: 10:42

And the reason for the reason for that is inventory. People that are stuck in three and three and a half and 4% mortgages that haven't wanted to move where new construction has been the game in town, offering incentives and pushing inventory out as much as possible. And so you see, flood the market with that supply and that supply of price and continues to go down while or at least it doesn't go up as quickly as resale homes because there's nothing on the market for them.

Speaker 1: 11:07

Yeah Well, it is insane. What a weird market. It is weird because enough of those current buyers saw all that inventory and what they had to offer and they said I didn't want any of those choosings now. So now they're going back to OK, what is on the resale market. You know which is like nothing. You know which is nothing right now.

Speaker 2: 11:26

And I tell you what a lot of people think as rates go down, people will list their house and inventory will go up. Inventory goes down in low interest rate environments. I promise you that happens because let's look at this rationally so if you are a seller and you are now willing to sell your house, that you have a three and a half, four percent mortgages because rates go down to five and a half or five percent and you can, you got enough equity in your house. You could put enough money down to kind of, you know, offset that payment hike for the higher rate to get the house you really want or to move to that state you really want to move to or to downsize, because, whatever your reason is now, you're going to be moving into a higher interest rate environment. Yes, you put your house on the market, but you also take one off when you buy it.

Speaker 2: 12:09

So the largest portion of home buyers is still the first time home buyer, taking it more than a third of home buyers nationwide, and those people are millennials and Gen Zs for the most part, which is the largest generation of first time home buyers we have ever had, and 93 percent of those people finance their home via mortgage. So they're going to be doing a lot of mortgage applications, they're going to be looking to purchase homes and they are not going to be putting homes on the market as a seller. In low interest rate environments, inventory goes down and we talked about it a little bit earlier. The amount of people that are saying I'm going to wait until rates go down and then I'm going to buy, you're doing what everybody else is doing. And if you're doing what everybody else is doing, you are entering a crowded market with more scarce supply and we are going to have a 2020, 2021 with five, five and a half percent interest rates and set it to an half, three percent interest rates.

Speaker 1: 13:04

That's what's going to happen and you still have some time it's worse on the affordability crisis now.

Speaker 2: 13:11

Way worse.

Speaker 1: 13:12

Way worse because now we're dealing with harder I mean now we're dealing with prices that are harder to purchase, and we're also dealing with still higher interest rates than when they were at the lowest point. So, therefore, the monthly payments are higher on these more expensive homes and you're dealing with a competitive market scenario that you're going to be in.

Speaker 2: 13:42

Yeah, one of the ways.

Speaker 1: 13:44

We haven't left the seller's market. It just softened enough for buyers to kind of. If buyers were savvy enough to figure out how to buy that we're willing to buy and figure out how to get through all this. Over the last year or so they got a good deal because they saw long term that they're in a situation that, as long as they could write it out, no matter what, they would set themselves up for success and get into a home ownership now versus continuing to rent out for yeah, those people are going to benefit on the way down.

Speaker 2: 14:19

The things that we have been trying to say to people of thinking long term instead of short term. Don't act out of fear, act out of rationality. Warren Buffett said it best. I think we said it on the last podcast when people are fearful, I'm greedy. When people are greedy, I'm fearful. People have been fearful, and it would have been a great time to be greedy in this market, because there were deals to pick up.

Speaker 1: 14:41

That's when all the cash investors are buying. They follow that philosophy.

Speaker 2: 14:46

Follow the smart money.

Speaker 1: 14:48

That's also when all the high end or in our industry we call them luxury home sellers or luxury clients, the ones that Not, so payment conscious People that have a lot of money they can buy right now, so they are buying.

Speaker 2: 15:08

They're always affected less because they have much more runway to deal with. That's just reality. Yeah, you say we're in a seller's market. Let's see if I can share a slide on my. I want to show you.

Speaker 1: 15:21

Yeah, definitely Let me. I'm going to zoom out here so I can let you share it.

Speaker 2: 15:29

Make sure I share the right screen. Okay, so it's going to show entire screen. That's what I want to share. There we go.

Speaker 1: 15:44

Perfect.

Speaker 2: 15:44

All right, there she is.

Speaker 1: 15:45

The stage right here.

Speaker 2: 15:47

Okay. So look at this. This is supply over the last 40 years. If we look at supply numbers, heading into the gray recession they headed up and then way, way, way up, but we have been in 15 plus years of diminishing supply. Rates have been going down during these 15 years until just recently when we were at record low supply numbers, historically record. Now these, these vacillations right here are just seasonality of real estate. So this has always been a seller's market as we continued in this downtrend of inventory inside of inside this market, even as rates went up.

Speaker 2: 16:27

Another thing that I want to show is the difference and one of the biggest reasons why we have such low inventory. This shows household formations versus household completion, so new homes that are brought onto the market via new construction versus new home owners that are being brought into the market. And you can see during 2006 and 2007,. During 2006 and 2007, we had the largest amount of formations and the excuse me completions and the fewest amount of formations, so that was a vastly oversupplied market. Juxtaposed that to the past eight, nine, 10 years where we've had every single year but 2016. And that was just barely not. We've had more formations than we've had completions and we were bringing that into, like I said, the largest home, first time home buying generation that we have ever seen.

Speaker 2: 17:18

So, yes, it's still a seller's market. Yes, there's so many buyers. Yes, there's so few sellers. We just don't have enough homes to sell people. And now we're going to have more people coming into the market because of moves like this down right. Yeah.

Speaker 1: 17:36

So this is what's happened the past. I know you're showing this last, last week, and it looks like it's trended down even more.

Speaker 2: 17:45

Even down from there. Yeah, so we were here last week. We had a little bit of a bump up, but nothing to worry about, and then this is the Fed Day, right here.

Speaker 1: 17:53

Right.

Speaker 2: 17:54

So, as rates came way down when Powell started speaking and one of the major reasons that rates started to go down was we had so the Fed has a thing called a Doft plot, and a Doft plot will say where they think interest rates are going into the future the federal funds rate and we talked about what the federal funds rate was. If you want to know what that is, go back to last week's podcast number two and this Doft plot I had set on my Facebook. I had set in my Facebook group. We've been trying to yell this on the mountaintops for a good three months. This Doft plot is what's sent rates up in September right here. When the Fed met and they have a quarterly Doft plot to this they had shown that they thought rates were going to go higher. Looks like this so this Doft plot shows where they think rates are going to go, and the reason they do it is Dofts is because it's anonymous for which Fed governors think rates are going to be where, and so you can see this trend upward from June to September. And then here we see this large trend downward into December and then where they think rates are going into the future. So two things happen. They thought rates, rate cuts were going to happen now, in 2024, where here it showed no rate cuts in 2024. And then they showed where they thought rates were going to go into the future. Now this isn't the toruously volatile and it changes really quickly. But the sentiment to the Fed this is one of the reasons why I say we, the market, trades on the Fed, even though we know it's going to change into the future. The market trades on the Federal Reserve. Big thing that happened. So that was the biggest part. The Fed said they met and said, hey, we're not going to raise interest rates. Then they released their Doft plot and they released their statement. And their statement that changed from last month's statement was that hey, jobs aren't quite as strong as we thought they were, which is the first time that they've really admitted a. Hey, there's some weakness in the jobs market. And that was a big deal, because then that portends a Federal Reserve shift in policy. They've said that they were okay with losing jobs in order to fix inflation. So they said one, looks like jobs are weakening. And then two, powell said hey, we may need to reduce restriction on the economy before we hit our 2% target of inflation. Right now he's talking about the PCE report and right now that is a little above 3% and it's come down pretty dramatically and he's saying hey for the first time he's saying hey, we may need to reduce restriction of the economy before we get to 2%, which was huge.

Speaker 2: 20:33

The Fed was really spooked, in my opinion, when interest rates got up to 5% on the Tenure Treasury Really really spooked at this.

Speaker 2: 20:40

There's a whole lot of what's called bond vigilanteism happened in the 90s of Janet Yellen too, and so, as this move up to 5%, which is probably unnecessary, we always should have been in the low four area throughout this whole time, but the bond market spoke and was kind of like enough is enough. And then you saw the Fed change their tune and rates have come down since then and the data has supported that. That's why this time is different than last time. Last time, you remember we talked about rates coming down to 5.99 in January, which is right here. Before we got some negative job data, sent it up Interest applications in January. The first week in January had the largest spike week over week in history, because rates had moved from 7.3 down to 5.99. What is happening right now is one similar but two sustainable, because the data is matching what the market is, where the market is wanting to move, and that is accelerating the peso movement.

Speaker 1: 21:37

Okay, that's good yeah. Does all that make sense.

Speaker 2: 21:40

Sometimes I just get in the weeds and start talking and I forget that people don't do this every day.

Speaker 1: 21:45

That makes sense to me. Anyone that's currently on here on any of the platforms. Hopefully that made sense to you. Comment below if it did. If it didn't, that's fine, we'll return your comments later.

Speaker 2: 21:55

If you're either of our moms, stop commenting on how handsome we are. We get it, moms.

Speaker 1: 21:59

Yeah, exactly, I don't need any more pinned comments from my mother-in-law or my moms, my mom.

Speaker 2: 22:07

Your mom, my mom.

Speaker 1: 22:10

Oh, also a reminder anyone that's on our podcast, I know the last two episodes have been especially heavy visual aid heavy. So a quick reminder when you're listening to our podcast and we get into this stuff where we're explaining visual aid stuff, you can easily find what we've been talking about if you want to go back and watch this as the podcast video version or the live version on my YouTube channel, which, again, all of that is linked wherever you're listening to this podcast. So, quick reminder, go watch it there so you can make sure to know what the heck Brian's talking about.

Speaker 2: 22:51

I think it's a lot easier with visual aids.

Speaker 1: 22:53

Honestly, I think so too because if I was listening to this too, I'd be like what Dot plot, what, what?

Speaker 2: 22:59

do you say yeah?

Speaker 1: 23:01

Where's this graph?

Speaker 2: 23:03

Dot plot now you're at 5%. So look at this incredible Fibonacci thing that I drew way back, I think in June of this last year, and then we went to the very bottom of this Fibonacci sequence, which is incredible. This is a thing just for my own analysis that I draw and look how Incredible sometimes technicals break out or we hit the very bottom and then bounced up. This is the mortgage back security market, isn't that awesome.

Speaker 1: 23:33

Yeah, sorry, that's just awesome to me, so explain that.

Speaker 2: 23:39

Technicals are a great way to kind of see what, what, where a stock rate, bond or a, an asset might go, based off of, in historically, what has happened in there. So got it. You have moving averages, like you can see. Here's 20, 50 hundred and 200 a moving averages, and so 20 days move below the 50 to 100 and getting to the 200. That's very bear bullish. That means that this is heading down with a lot of force, because normally these moving averages hold. You can see it here. Look at how it held right on this 50 day moving average for a while one, two, three, four, five tests before it got through. Why at this level? Because it's 50 day moving average. Why? Because it is the average of what's a it's a. It's the average of where this, this asset, has been over the past 50 days. Those things are incredible.

Speaker 1: 24:31

No, it's definitely much smarter than. I'm in awe every time I see you walk me through this, brian. One thing I'd like to ask you. You know, you know one of my go-to lending partners. You study this like every day. It's almost like you're like a scholar with this. How, without I don't know. I'm trying to make sure this isn't a loaded question but like how, how often do you think this is the primary mode that most lenders operate and where they're actually like steady, almost none?

Speaker 2: 25:04

Unfortunately, almost none. When we do our first time homebuyer classes, I teach Homebuyers where how an interest rate is made and I have a little Like a illustration to kind of walk through what makes an interest rate when you get your loan and 90% as they learn that they know more than 90% of most lenders. Unfortunately, people don't. I don't know. I think I'm just fortunate that I really enjoy this stuff.

Speaker 2: 25:30

When I was in real sir lending pre real estate crash, during the crash and post crash, and I really dived deep into how the market was moving in, why, during that time, and it's just a love that stayed with me. But no, I try. I coach Hundreds of lenders probably on what's going on in the market and why Right, and a bunch of realtors. And no, it's, you don't have to know this stuff to be a good lender. I would. I don't know if I'm gonna go to a lender and I'm gonna ask them about what my locking or floating strategy should be, or should I be buying or should I not be buying. I would want somebody that studies it and knows this stuff the same way that you study market trends and days on market and list to a sale price. And I was gonna bring that up.

Speaker 1: 26:13

It seems like the same mode that I'm in for, because there I mean sure there's a lot of them when, when agents this doesn't get talked about a lot in my industry, but like there's a lot of agents that you know that that's obviously it's, it's expected of an agent that's working with the seller to do, yeah, right, I see, may you know, compare comparative market analysis to figure out what the home is worth, right, but not a lot of. I Don't know of that happening a lot in the industry on the buying side, or at least that's at least not what my experience was when I bought my home.

Speaker 1: 26:50

You know, Like when I first bought my house with the, with one of the realtors I was originally working with, when I asked well, you know, I know the house is ultimately what it should be worth to me. But I'd kind of like, just in general, I'm, I'm into analysis, I'd like to know, just in general, what is it?

Speaker 2: 27:11

lead me.

Speaker 1: 27:14

It should be worth compared to what is it listed at. And then all I got back was the shruggy emoji he or she, I'm not gonna name names it.

Speaker 1: 27:26

I printed out just a copy of 10 properties with different bedroom, bathroom count, different and widely different square footage, different stories and different like miles apart, and Was not honed in at all and was and then didn't even tell me how to interpret the data and was like here you go. And then I'm like what do I do with this? You know so, like I think I think, if I do you ever run into that where, like you have a home buyer that savvy enough that might be asking a question to you but like don't know, Yep, there are times yeah, there are times.

Speaker 2: 28:09

In home buyer, we're super handholdy. We do zooms with people all the time we go over this market data. We ain't we one of the one of the big things that people don't want to feel stupid, and Sometimes they'll feel stupid asking a question that they feel like is basic, but the reality is this is too big a decision and none of this is basic. This is your first, second, third time in your life dealing with this information. Ask all the questions that you can think of, or ask the same question as many different ways as you need to until it clicks. So we handhold a lot, we do zooms a lot, and the reason is it's too big of a deal to not understand. And I find there's two clients. There's ones that really want to understand and know what's going on and why, and that's so fun to nerd out with them, and there's ones that just know that, I know yeah and the others just want to know that I know.

Speaker 2: 28:58

And they're like okay, if you know, then I can trust you. That's the kind of consumer I am. If I'm talking to somebody who's an expert in their field, I'm like, hey, I'm just gonna follow your lead here. I've hired you because I trust you, so you, I've already vetted you, I trust you and I know you know what you're talking about. This isn't for me to know, this is for you to be an expert on. But there are some people want to know all the things and some people just want to know that you know the things and you've got a. You got to be able to serve both of them. Well. But if you don't know any other things, you can't serve either of them and you just get this data thrown up on you and it's like here you go, see you later.

Speaker 1: 29:30

And I think I don't explain to you yeah.

Speaker 2: 29:33

I've narrowed it down to. There is such a low-barried entry to some of the most important things that we do in our society, insurance, financial planning, real estate lending, very low barriers of entry. Yeah, you got to take a test in real estate lending. That's pretty difficult. It's not the easiest test in the world, but it's not the hardest and if you study you'll pass it and it doesn't.

Speaker 1: 29:56

It doesn't teach you how to be good at taking care of people, it just teaches.

Speaker 2: 30:00

Oh, no, no, out of jail.

Speaker 1: 30:00

Basically.

Speaker 2: 30:01

Yeah, how's jail and what repairing rights are and how many hecticers are in a furlough and like, yeah, it's, it's crazy, but there's such a low-barry of entry that you have to. You have to have some sort of underlying drive Of. For most of us at service of people, for me it is just the incredible High that I get from somebody who didn't think they could buy a home, that I get to sit across and be like, yes, you do, you do get to buy. This is great, this is in your future. There's Nothing like that in the whole world. Helping my business partners raise their business to whatever level they want to raise it to, and be able to partner with them, I love it.

Speaker 1: 30:43

And then I just like, maybe this person.

Speaker 2: 30:47

Oh, hey, girl, she was the best these guys right, those guys right. Yeah, that's a. They're coming up on a year, that's right.

Speaker 1: 30:55

Or all these people behind us, you know yeah, that's there's nothing like it.

Speaker 2: 31:00

We get to do that and we get paid for it. That's crazy to me sometimes that I get paid to do this.

Speaker 1: 31:07

Right.

Speaker 2: 31:08

I would say I would do it for free, but I don't want that live or recorded forever on any podcast.

Speaker 1: 31:13

Oh, someone.

Speaker 2: 31:17

Brian's wife said no, yeah, yeah, what do you do? Agree with that? You think I'm off base at all.

Speaker 1: 31:27

No, I'm. I backed that up 100%. I'm right there with you on that. I mean, with that said shameless plug, I will throw this in here because I don't have any actual sponsored ads yet on any of these podcasts or anything. I don't know if we'll ever get there. But by the way, again, my name is Aaron Morrow. I'm a local realtor in the greater Seattle area. I primarily work with clients and King, Pierce and Snow Homish counties. Every day we're getting calls, texts and emails from people just like you looking to make their move to the greater Seattle area or buy or sell houses in this area, which I absolutely love, Brian absolutely loves. He works with everyone all throughout Washington.

Speaker 1: 32:08

So, whenever you're looking to make your next move, your next purchase or your sale. Give us a call, shoot sex, send us an email. My personal favorite is the zoom, though, so all of our contact information is going to be found below in the comments, after these lives are done. No, so that's what I'm going to be posting all of our contact information throughout everywhere where we said again Facebook, linkedin, tiktok, instagram, youtube, clapper.

Speaker 2: 32:36

There's no way you didn't make up some of those words. You made up some. There's not that there cannot be that many social medias, oh that sounds exhausting. We have ping pong, we have pivot table, we have grand finale. We got bifocal jib jab. Oh, do you remember jib jab?

Speaker 1: 32:54

Have you been on Wolf? Yeah, jib jab. Yeah, I remember it's right from.

Speaker 2: 32:57

Wolf.

Speaker 1: 32:59

Yeah, it's right from Wolf. Oh, yeah, I wanted, I wanted that I would have invested, not to segue, but like if that was a real service, I totally would have invested in Wolf and sent someone. Yeah, it included facts, facts. You could have fax someone to fax, you know, at the same time fax, phone calls, Facebook, I mean, they would have added to it. You would have been able to Instagram someone. Bomb, bomb them.

Speaker 2: 33:25

Loom video them at the same time. Look what this is. This is Wolf. You're live on a bajillion different social media is free, and I mean real and not real this is.

Speaker 1: 33:34

This is like the streaming version of Wolf from yeah, that show that we can't name because you know, for you know for corporate reasons.

Speaker 2: 33:44

I am in the office right now I'm in the office, that's just oh you're in your office, the office, I'm in my office too. Yeah, I went to the office today. I didn't do the home office, I went to the office.

Speaker 1: 33:57

Yeah, and you're buddy Ryan from the office from Wolf. Yeah, from Wolf. It's right, Wolf, exactly.

Speaker 2: 34:05

Yeah, good. Well, anything else we want to go over today, man?

Speaker 1: 34:10

I think I think that's about it for today. I think that was great. I'm glad that you kind of that was a two parter. I'm glad that you brought that up everyone Again. I think we're going to keep tracking what's going on and telling you what's going on to the market, but it is starting to pick up. I still think it's a better time if you can get in right now.

Speaker 1: 34:32

My final thoughts are if you have been on the fence and you are someone that has the ability to buy right now, like you looked into it, you are pre-approved, there's a price point that works for you and you just weren't excited about the monthly payments. But you can afford the monthly payments right now. This is the time to get in right now. Don't wait Now. Of course, if you're someone that can't get approved, approved yet, or your circumstances are different I'm not, that's different, you know but if you are someone that can buy and has the opportunity to buy in, just you're just waiting for those interest rates to drop, I I don't think that's a good strategic move for you right now. So that's my final thoughts for you.

Speaker 2: 35:20

Even if you don't use Aaron Morrill, Greater Seattle Realtor, or Brian Lathlin from the Flan Group. This isn't a self promotion you have to use this.

Speaker 1: 35:27

No, find, find someone You're not using us. Find someone you know like and trust, but still get in the money Deep in our core.

Speaker 2: 35:35

This is what we, as people who watch the market every day, this is what we believe, right? Not I want to sell you a house or give you a mortgage. I want you to get a house because it's going to be the best thing.

Speaker 1: 35:46

This is what we believe in, folks. The American dream. We want you to get into it right now.

Speaker 2: 35:51

You're at a unique time in history where talk to a lender, just call and talk to him.

Speaker 1: 35:56

Please do In fact here I'll throw this out here as a bone to. If you're on my other social media profiles and I think even on my YouTube, if you go to my Lincoln bio, I have a tab on my Lincoln bio where there's a national section. So if you're out of state, there's a national lender that you can talk to just to start that conversation going, and you can talk to a national network that I've built up of the team of rotors that I know like and trust. You can chat with them. There is absolutely zero obligation, but I would just like you to get that ball rolling to look into ownership, and that's the hardest part is getting that process going because, like I've talked to Brian, I think that biggest hurdle is people starting that conversation.

Speaker 2: 36:51

And.

Speaker 1: 36:51

I think some people, some people they don't even, I think they're afraid of you know, because, brian, would you agree? Some lenders, they don't even have that conversation if the client won't even like fill out the loan application. Yeah, it's just like start talking to someone.

Speaker 2: 37:12

You know, yeah, some people are very transactional and some people are very relational. I think this job would be other. It's so stressful as it is. It would be utterly undueable if we were just transactional, if all you were were a number that we're sending through. I would not want to come to work every day. I wouldn't do it, especially in times that are hard. But, yeah, find somebody that you jive with, find somebody that you can trust, find somebody that you know cares actually about you, and talk to them, have a conversation, ask them where the market's going and why. You've listened to this podcast. You may know a little bit. Think of it like this If you came into a large sum of money, you would talk to a financial planner right away what do I do with this money? How do I protect it? You have a chance right now in this market. We've all we've laid out the reasons why what's going to happen is going to happen, and we've been pretty accurate on how we got here, predicting what would happen to get us here.

Speaker 1: 38:00

Yep.

Speaker 2: 38:01

You are coming into a large sum of money. Talk to somebody. You have the opportunity to talk to somebody you can trust about what to do with it and how.

Speaker 1: 38:08

Right, exactly, yeah, I think that's a good, good final thought, ryan.

Speaker 2: 38:13

So all right everyone.

Speaker 1: 38:15

thanks so much for joining us. If you're watching this back later and you'd like to reach out to us again, all the contact information is below Tune in next week. Well, actually I'm trying to. I'm looking at our calendar on next week. Yeah, we will do one more next week, and then Brandon and I are going to talk about the week after, because I know we got the holidays going on. Some of us celebrate Christmas y'all, I don't know, who yeah?

Speaker 2: 38:41

some of us have six kids. Yeah yeah, I've got one.

Speaker 1: 38:48

So, like some of us on this podcast, have between one and six kids.

Speaker 2: 38:54

I gotta tell you I think one is harder than six. They kind of cordon off and play with each other a lot. The house is always a little bit messier than you like.

Speaker 1: 39:01

There's always socks somewhere, but one you got to, especially the age of your one. You got to laser focus. I think if I were to do like a video walkthrough for you to show you my house, you'd be like why is your house just as messy as mine with six children?

Speaker 2: 39:15

Because one is harder.

Speaker 1: 39:17

Yeah, I've been like you know what? She's super artsy, you know. We let, we, let we, we let that flourish, you know right. So let that create. Well, plus, I'll also throw this out here we are. We're a family that fosters dogs, so we. So we have two resident dogs and we have usually one in rotation right now. So we are foster dog. His name's tango. He's the little blue healer mix, I think. He's mixed with either a Boston terrier or, like a friend I will. Well, he's already adopted.

Speaker 2: 39:57

He's already spoken for why would you bring him up then?

Speaker 1: 40:01

he had 18 applications and so, like we round, people come.

Speaker 2: 40:05

Oh, he was Okay. So this is a lot like the real estate market now.

Speaker 1: 40:09

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 40:09

Oh yeah, so it's definitely demand.

Speaker 1: 40:11

Yeah, Anyway, so well, it'll be interesting. You know what I will let you know. The next one that we get you know.

Speaker 2: 40:17

I didn't know.

Speaker 1: 40:18

I didn't know. You're in the market for a little cute blue, You're like not even my wife but she's fine so far, one of the best foster pups we've had. He is. I think this would have worked better if I was trying to sell them right now and he wasn't but because now it's just like gloating on everyone live streaming that wants this dog, that can't have him anymore, you know.

Speaker 1: 40:40

But super kind of trained, super potty trained, doesn't complain, just chill. Sits there playful with the dog, playful with my kiddos, you know, like well, well, even dog, but he'll just leave it alone if you want to. He's not like you know, he doesn't have that separation anxiety that some dogs come with that are.

Speaker 2: 40:59

Yeah, playful, yeah Well, good, no other cute dog you can't have. That's what the taste we're leaving with you. See you later.

Speaker 1: 41:06

Yeah, tango. Okay, sounds good, brian. Well, I will, we will. We will all see you next week, Sounds good. Everyone See you next week, okay, all right.