Served with Andy Roddick
THE WIMBLEDON DRAW BREAKDOWN presented by Ozlo Sleepbuds
Andy Roddick and Jon Wertheim bring you a full breakdown of the Wimbledon draw. Feel the energy and get ready for the ultimate grass tournament as they analyze both the ATP and WTA matchups. Who will end up as Champion? Andy and Jon pick all the winners.
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Andy Roddick and Jon Wertheim bring you a full breakdown of the Wimbledon draw. Feel the energy and get ready for the ultimate grass tournament as they analyze both the ATP and WTA matchups. Who will end up as Champion? Andy and Jon pick all the winners.
Proud Sponsors:
Visit www.ozlosleep.com today to learn more!
Pre-order your Ozlo Sleepbuds today and save up to $120
Served is sponsored by Olipop! Check out the link below and use the code: SERVED20 to get 20% off your order: https://drinkolipop.com/served20
Keep up with us on socials!
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/servedpodcast/
X: https://twitter.com/Served_Podcast
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@served_podcast?_t=8jZtCnzdAnX&_r=1
Watch the Episodes on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0k_--YLuTNuDvq1Dw4zHmw
Hey everyone, welcome to the Draw Breakdown, wimbledon style presented by Oslo Sleep Buds. They will be our presenting sponsor through Wimbledon in its entirety. We are happy to have them on board. We are going to tell you more about the product later in the show, but let's get to it.
Speaker 1:I left the last show basically saying that I wanted to talk about the women's draw first, because there are so many women that could make a dent in this tournament in this draw, and I haven't looked at the draws. So just a reminder if you saw our Roland Garros draw breakdown, we do it a little differently. I think Mike's probably looked at it. I think our guy John Wertheim, I think he has looked at the draw. I have not looked at the draw, so I will look at it for the first time. Right in front of you, I have this one that says women's and this one that says men's, and I have not seen them yet. So I'll just tell you quickly who I'm looking at.
Speaker 1:And the question that I've been asking is JW. I want your thoughts on this too. Is Igor Sviatek the most dominant player on earth right now, with Novak kind of not getting off to the year, the start of the year. That we're accustomed to, that we feel entitled to, frankly, that we're spoiled as tennis fans from him with his consistent level of quality. But Sviatek has kind of jumped into that role. You know five slams already. Young age rolled through Roland Garros again. Is she one of your top four favorites on the women's side? One of your top four?
Speaker 2:favorites on the women's side. We should back up and talk about why we are even having this conversation. As you say, here's a player she's 45-4 on the year. She's lost four matches all year. She's number one. She won the previous major rolling away. She's a former Wimbledon junior champ and we're having a very legitimate discussion about. Is she among the top four or five contenders? The short answer is yes, but I think there's a larger discussion here. Why are we all so skeptical? What is it about her game that makes us all so skeptical? Because on paper, it should be Iga versus the field, and yet a lot of people, the two of us included, are sort of saying well, she's in the mix, but I wouldn't necessarily make her my first choice. Why is that Surfaces?
Speaker 1:right Everything that she does well naturally in her game, right, that heavy ball flight on her forehand side, the ability on clay and on hard to get out of the corners, especially on clay where she slides and then turns back. She's already got a step closer to back to the center. When she goes for those kind of big slides On grass, she has to either run through it the movement's not awkward or not great for her. Uh, when she split steps and uh, I talked to a like one of the most revered coaches a couple of weeks ago and he brought up a great point. He basically said that uh, some of the players that thrive on clay have like a high split step so they pop up and down pretty quickly. You need that low center of gravity. Uh, on grass right, think of like a Leighton Hewitt or a Novak Djokovic or a Roger Federer. They're always kind of sunk into the court.
Speaker 1:Iga, for all her greatness in her footwork, kind of has that like pogo jump which makes it tough to break to the edges with her movement. The second serve is attackable. You can beat her. I mean, this is all relative right. When I talk about the greats and the way that you have to play them. It doesn't mean that there's a weakness, it doesn't mean that it's a slight, but the game plan is you have to run traffic hard through Iga's forehand side Grass. The ball gets through the court a little bit more. You can attack that forehand side and she can't just switch directions, meaning high lofty one up to the back end, or turn it over physical back to the forehand side. So basically, everything in her game gets better as soon as she steps on a clay court. Naturally right Doesn't have to make adjustments. The adjustments that she makes are purely strategic, based on who's on the other side of the court, whereas at Wimbledon she has to adjust her movement. She probably has to adjust her ball flight, especially on the forehand side, a little bit more than she wants. Second, serve is extremely gettable, especially on this surface. You can attack. Basically where you have to go to make her a little bit weaker is way more open on grass right. So it's not a mystery how you beat her and it is easier to execute. You don't get that skid low ball flat deep through the court on a clay court and she can back up right. She can give herself space where at Wimbledon she's going to have to play a little bit more up on the baseline. And then you mix that with I'm looking at kind of just a lazy list of names written down. Coco will be good on grass.
Speaker 1:Sabalenka's game is made for grass. Rabakhin has already won Wimbledon. Jess Pagula, you could argue. Grass is, you know, maybe her biggest upside is on the service Von Jeroseva. Obviously won Wimbledon last year. Zhang is going to be able to serve to the court Ange Jabbour, it's her best surface. So you combine the ego of things as far as style and then you bring in the other players who you know there's six or seven here in the top 15 that you could make the argument that grass is their best surface. So those factors combined are why we are talking about ego like we are at this tournament.
Speaker 1:It's not as if we've forgotten that she's great, we haven't. Just me saying she's more vulnerable on grass and might not be one of the top three or four favorites doesn't mean I completely don't. I didn't forget her legacy. I've been, you know, on the front end of saying I think she's going to be one of the best women's players of all time. You know, I could even be convinced that she wins Wimbledon, you know someday for sure, but it's going to be the toughest slog for sure, you know, danielle Collins.
Speaker 1:I'm looking at another name. She steps up in the middle of court and starts tagging that forehand with her pace of shot. That's a tough matchup. Madison Keys a lot tougher matchup. Ostapenko a lot tougher matchup Kalinskaya a lot tougher matchup Svitolina tougher matchup Siniakova, alexandra. There's so much depth on the women's side for this event. It's just I'm looking at the top 30 ranked players and that's before we get to the bolters and the. You know one, miss Emma Raducanu has entered the conversation, uh, this week by playing well, beating Jess Pagula and finding some form just in time for Wimbledon. So, uh, all that to say, I think it's going to get weird.
Speaker 1:Uh, during this draw. There's going to be a lot of high quality matches, uh, on the women's side. Um, some really big names on the men's side that I want to see where they end up. Berrettini is one that nobody wants to play first round, you know, and I see your smile, which means he dropped someone. Who's going to play someone first round. It's like this Vera Rafa of Roland Garros, but you don't want to see him.
Speaker 1:John Leonard Struff is another one that, like nobody wants to see, right, he can come forward. He's basically Michael Steech. Uh, with a two-handed backhand, plays the exact same. The body type uh, is similar. So this is what's fun about these draw shows is that you want to see where the sleepers uh, kind of end up. Jordan Thompson's, another one that is well versed on grass that no one wants to, you know, not as intimidating, not the big serve like Berrettini Can't take the racket out of your hands but just a nuanced player who, once he gets on a grass court, is instantly better. So, without further ado, mike, what are we? Producer? Mike, am I doing the women's or the men's first? I think let's go with the women's first.
Speaker 3:Let's go with the women's Real quick, though. Where are you?
Speaker 1:Oh sorry, I am in rome. I uh, I actually am looking out, uh, to my left. We are traveling, um, I can see right here if I bend down, so I'm looking out to my left straight away. I can see the top of the stadium for the rome masters right out to my left.
Speaker 1:As we're having this conversation, you're a few weeks late, late yeah, that's hence me, me with me, with clay, that's, that's, that's uh just trying to stay on brand uh. What else are we looking for? Or what else were you curious about? You've already seen you. You, uh have solved for your biases, um, but what? What was exciting? You, before you actually saw the draw?
Speaker 2:uh, this week, jw well, I think some of the mystery and it hasn't you know it's we're let's time stamp this. It's friday morning, the draw just came out and I think we're all waiting to see. Are the players that are on our draw sheets? Are they going to stay in the draw? Are there going to be some, uh, some late withdrawals that are going to change things a little bit? Um, it looks like novak is officially in. I think murray's a bit of a question mark as you and I speak right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I just want to clear something up real quick because I've been catching strays for the last week Me saying so. When I said Novak, if he was really hurt he should pull out before the draw is made. That doesn't mean if he has a chance to play, you pull out, right? Mike literally said when would he pull out, right? Mike literally said when would he pull out when we were dealing with a knee surgery, uh, you know, etc. Etc. And I said okay, if he's really hurt, knows he's not going to play, he's going to pull out before, before the draw is out.
Speaker 1:Um, not the same as andy murray. This is a largely. He's never ceremonial in the way he approaches a match, but this is his last Wimbledon. He wants to say goodbye to the home crowd. If Novak was playing his last tournament and he was 90-something in the world, you would also want him to play regardless of hurting himself further. X, y and Z.
Speaker 1:Murray's not worried about future damage to his body. He wants to get on the court and take that victory celebration. The two couldn't be further apart right now. One is the number two seed where if you pull out late, it's your prerogative. I'm just saying if he knew he wasn't going to play on a Tuesday, he would have pulled out before the draw. It's that simple. No reason to get emotional about it.
Speaker 1:That's the way it's always been done. It's the way it's always been done. It's the classy thing to do and, by the way, it's what he said this week, right? He said I'm not going to play if I don't think I can win and if I know I can't play, he goes. I'm going to pull out earlier because I want to make a spot in the draw for someone else. He literally parroted exactly what we were talking about, but yet still catching strays, and we can't do right on this show. You know one way or the other, but Murray and Noel like completely different scenarios. I am going to turn over the women's draw and take a look at it for the first time.
Speaker 3:But first we have to take a break.
Speaker 1:Got it and we'll be back right after this. Apparently, all right, welcome back. Hopefully, producerael butt out. Um, not sleep, butt out. Uh, I'll tell you. I just had a beautiful plate of caprese pasta. You know what sucks about italy and their offerings for food and beverage? Not, but you know what sucks.
Speaker 1:What's that I don't see any Alipop, and it's could have used one. Alright, I'm going to turn over this women's draw and then we are going to start filling out the brackets, so I know I'm going to see Iga. Sviatak, ooh, kennen, that's not easy, that's a tricky one. Kennan's game translates to grass really well, hard, flat through. The court can switch directions. I'm not going to take her over Iga.
Speaker 2:You'll recall the first round last year. Kennan's got some rough draws coming her way. Um, sometimes she overcomes them, sometimes not. That's a that's a rough first rounder, though for two former major champions.
Speaker 1:Don't often get that yeah, that's, that's a, that's a, that's a rough one. And also, remember, iga hasn't played a match, a competitive match on grass. Like come out of the gates, it's easy to drop serve once you're down. Two, three, oh, like that's. She needs a good start in that one, and it's not as if she has seven weeks of clay court tennis behind her and she's going into Roland Garros. So I like Martich in the second round, I like Iga, I have Iga through to the third round. Oh, putin, save a Kerber, that's a good one.
Speaker 2:That's a good one, huh.
Speaker 1:Putin save. I didn't mention her in the sleepers and I feel bad now.
Speaker 2:You said something really interesting. Why don't we do it right here in like 30 seconds? But you made a really good point that you don't have to necessarily be 6'10 and a big server to succeed on grass and here in Putin, save a Kerber. These are not two physical giants, but they both are good on the surface.
Speaker 1:Why Kerber's? These are not two physical giants, but they both are good on the surface. Why don't you explain why? Uh, it's an oversimplification to say height is good, the the?
Speaker 1:The laziest way to analyze grass court tennis, in my opinion, is big serve good on grass, and I actually don't think that's the case. I think being able to knock down returns, uh, like Isner, doesn't hold any more on grass than he does on a normal surface but he doesn't have time to set up right. He hits one return and you can switch directions on him right away and he'll tell you this much. Anyways, fast, twitch muscles right, where you can react quickly, that pays dividends. On a grass court slow and dope he doesn't really pay many dividends. No matter how hard you serve, it's not going to help you hold anymore and you have to be able to break. So the lazy analysis where, like, that's a big server, he's automatically going to be great on grass, doesn't always hold water. Now, if you're a big server like Becker and you can come in and you can make a bunch of returns and you can slice and get in and same with Pete like they were great on grass. You know their serves are always great, but the sum of the parts were better.
Speaker 1:On Grass Pete could get forward, he could chip and come in. He had the skill set to make his service games even better. So Putin-Seva, again low to the ground. Kerber, former Wimbledon champion, low to the ground, can both get it through the court. I don't know who I like in this one. I think I'm going to take Putin-Seva just on like a recency bias. I'm basically just going to take her because she won. Oh, siniakova, that's Putin.
Speaker 3:Seba.
Speaker 1:Siniakova is a brutal suck around. I like Siniakova. Okay, now that's the popcorn one We've come to.
Speaker 2:Our first impasse is Siniakova.
Speaker 1:Iga.
Speaker 2:That's not good.
Speaker 1:That's a good upset pick huh, iga has a tough drop. Yeah, exactly, tenon is really good, I think. I think martich, I think she can handle that I said senyakova iga is.
Speaker 2:Uh, that's one to circle, huh that's a big one.
Speaker 1:I think that's a big one. Um, um garcia. All right, uh, blenkova potapova. Okay, garcia potapova. I like potapova to the third round no, no, bernie, para big lefty serve uh, all right, no, not no. Potapova played pretty well. She played all right. Last week. She won some matches um tamjanovich ostapenko. Who do you like in that one jw? That's a good, uh, that's, that's a repeat, that's that's, that's one for the youtube.
Speaker 2:Uh, remember they played at wimbledon and had had words um tamjanovich on the nice. See, she got a wild card. Bad luck with injuries, I. I think I gotta go ostapenko, um, but that's uh, that's a good. There's some history there.
Speaker 1:I like Ostapenko through to the third round. Potapova, I mean Iga's draw is like brutal. She does not like the matchup against Ostapenko, Is she? 0-4 against her?
Speaker 2:Never beaten Ostapenko. No, never beaten Ostapenko 0-4 against Ostapenko.
Speaker 1:Oh my gosh, I hate this draw for Igaa and I realize, even though I went off on why I don't like her on grass as much as the other surfaces I still have a really hard time picking against her, exactly. Um, all right, daniel collins, I like her moving through against losing uh losing record at wimbledon.
Speaker 2:I just saw.
Speaker 1:But that's surprising.
Speaker 2:I think you're right but isn't it, isn't it? Yeah, I and maybe that, but that's surprising, I think you're right, but isn't it, isn't it?
Speaker 1:Yeah, and maybe that's just a movement thing, like where you're not a fluent mover, where you maybe she slips and stuff, but I still like I mean she's hitting the ball, great. Well, she's had some time off. She hasn't played a Sheree. I still have Collins, third round, even with that. Camillo, sorry, I was like Georgie. No, she's not playing, maybe ever. I guess I like Haddad through against Collins. There's not like a huge favorite in that section. Honestly, that's kind of the weakest little one so far. I'll go Collins just friend of the show, right, danimal Over.
Speaker 2:Yeah, haddad, maya is one of those players that everybody likes. One so far I'll go collins, just friend of the show right, danimal um over.
Speaker 1:Yeah, dad maya is one of those players that everybody likes and then she seldom brings it at the big events uh, yeah, and also I I have this thing where, like, if they played first round, I might view it a little bit differently. But if they play third round, that means danimal's gotten two matches in and when she gets a, like you, but when she has wind behind her, she's a completely different player. So if they play third round, this isn't on like just a head to head basis. This is if they play. I didn't say anything to Novak or Roland Garros, like I. All of a sudden I had him in the semis. I'm like well, novak. So it's a completely different scenario than him playing. You know, same matchup first round, um, you got to give credit to, uh, to the, the players that can find form, um in a hurry, uh, kuchikova she's falling off.
Speaker 2:Sinyakova has a higher singles ranking than Kuchikova. Just a little side note.
Speaker 1:Sinyakova is good on grass. I'm just telling you like she can. She can absolutely play, uh, on grass. Okay to play collins. I like I'm gonna save you, so we move it along here. I like vandross of a. I like von vendros of a. I keep thinking I'm gonna pick an upset of ego and then I just can't do it. Exactly um, which says something. Um, yeah, that's like a testament to her greatness, because I don't like to eat the matchups for her, but I'm not going to pick against her, so I don't know if you saw the slip that Vondrosova had, which looked really bad.
Speaker 2:I don't know. I mean, everything is case by case, but I'm curious how much of this injury withdrawal is preventative and cautionary and precautionary, and how much of it do you think these players are coming dinged up?
Speaker 1:um, I think a lot of it's precautionary. I think we saw a lot of precautionary stuff um in berlin, um, rightfully so. Um, you know, if you take a slip, but the thing with von droseva and with a lot of the other players who kind of had those slip and then withdrawal, is they, they all walked off. Um, it didn't look like she had a limp. So hopefully it's one of those things where you tweak it. You know, I see anti-inflammatories, uh, volterran, everything, all of these things where you can reduce inflammation. Um, I don't know, I haven't heard much about her, um, because other stories have been taken up all the oxygen, but I haven't heard much about her because other stories have been taking up all the oxygen, but I haven't heard much about her coming into this tournament. But I love, I thought it was so good for her Wimbledon prospects that she played well at Roland Garros.
Speaker 1:And finally, just found a little bit of rhythm and a cadence and, you know, to be in a tournament for 10 days the same tournament not having played two tournaments in 10 days like she has for the rest of the season I thought was a really good sign. So I have Iga Vondrozova in the quarters, rabakina another one of the Berlin casualties retiring down 3-1. It looked like it was stomach issues. It sounded like it was more.
Speaker 2:This is a chronic thing with her. I mean, this is the players really struggle to stay healthy.
Speaker 1:Yes, and it's weird and she'll, she'll be defending tournaments. So indian wells, rome, uh, missed both of them, um, kind of on the eve of the tournament, um, but I just, uh, I like you know who I really like. I I like Leila Fernandez on this Wozniacki.
Speaker 2:Slow down. Wozniacki Parks is a good one, huh yeah. Parks has that big serve.
Speaker 1:There it is, though John Wozniacki is going to find a way to hit behind her. She can push directions. I like Woz in that one. Wozniacki Fernandez is a good one. I'm going to take Layla through to the third round. I'm going to take Rabakina.
Speaker 1:It's just so hard, rabakina, you don't know what you're going to get, but you can't bet against her on the surface. I mean, her game and maybe Sabalenka are kind of like made for the surface. I have Rabakina through to the fourth round. Okay, now we're going to get fun.
Speaker 1:I am taking in the next quarter, just the ball down. Um kind of has that. You know, the check ball flight normally is a little bit flatter and through the court, which is great on grass, uh, I don't like samsonova, um, she kind of needs some time on that forehand side almost has like a little delay where she can kind of lay it off and create a bunch of speed, but also like it's tough to catch up to um on a grass court. I like I'm gonna go kalinskaya, rabak and uh in the fourth round. Uh, jabor, I think the people's favorite for this event, obviously, having made the finals the last two years and just coming up a little bit short Heartbreak Hotel against Von Drozdova last year, where she was probably the heavy favorite and Von Drozdova was outside of the top 40. Svitolina Semi's last year, if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 2:Memorable run. Niemeyer had a nice run two years ago, but she's fallen off a bit. Yeah, Spitalina semis last year.
Speaker 1:All right, I don't like doing this, but Jabbour, I just Casualties in Berlin that like she lost the first set to Coco 7-6, and then took a pass. It looked like it was a neck issue, which if you're playing a set it's normally stiff and you're just kind of making it worse by trying to serve, so that felt very precautionary. I have Svitolina in the fourth round.
Speaker 2:Yes, you have your board through on that section, john I guess she, she sure can't complain about her draw, but um, I do not think she makes her third straight final, if that's jumping ahead, uh.
Speaker 1:But yeah, I do have to burn through okay, I don't hate, I don't hate that at all. Oh, this is a, this is a tough section. Bolter and pagula crash course. Let's just, let's just pencil them in in the third round. Bolter, uh, obviously having the best year of her career. Um, I think last year she was probably 70 or 80 in the world at wimbledon. Now she's top 30, has really made a lot of you know, big, big, big stride. That's a tough one because that's going to be on center court for sure. Uh, in great britain, um, I, I gotta do it, though I'm taking pagula to the quarters, oh, really, and maybe, yeah, and maybe that's my heart, but I just no, uh, no, ashland kruger love um no, I mean, I just just Pagoulas five in the world and is really good on grass.
Speaker 1:No, there's no disrespect.
Speaker 2:And probably benefits from this hiatus she took. I don't read much into her losing to Raducanu, having won a title last week. No, no, I don't.
Speaker 1:I don't think. I don't know if she benefits from it, but I think, as we talked about in the last pod, I think she needed to win that tournament. She needed to beat a big competition, took out some massive grass court players like Sini, akiba, goff, and then Kellen Skye saved four match points in the final. So I've been outspoken the last couple of weeks about loving Jess Pagula's game on grass. I've been outspoken the last couple of weeks about loving Jess Pagula's game on grass. So I guess I have to put you know money where my mouth is. And so, true to form, who do you have through? So we're going to go, we'll fill through to the quarters and then we'll come back and finish it. On the women's side Iga Vondrozova, rabakina Pagula but like I have no confidence in this, half A million upsets just waiting to happen. I mean Putinsaeva, siniakova is a monster. Second round Siniakova, iga, that's a big and Siniakova has played big matches. Iga has a brutal draw. Kennan great on grass. I think she'll get through the second one.
Speaker 1:Siniakova really good on grass. Ostapenko or Potapova really good on grass. Vondrozova really good on grass. Iga's got a brutal draw and it's like the respect tax means you can't. It's weird. I could have her in the semis and also I might take 51% that she doesn't get there. You know what I'm saying? Like she, she's like the most likely, but this is a this is a tough draw. Like this is a really, really, really tough draw for for Iga. I mean, she plays fourth round but she's never beaten Ostapenko. Like tennis is matchups.
Speaker 1:And that matchup is like easier, ostapenko just fires through the court.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we haven't. I mean, let's just be clear too this is a player who's never been beyond the quarters. She won junior Wimbledon, but this is a player who's never been beyond the quarters. I just, I don't know how much. We can't really quantify, you say, or attacks. I mean I just I think there's gotta be something on both sides of the net, both her own confidence and then the opponent as well. There's got to be something to say. This is the world's number one player, who won the previous major, who's winning 90 percent of her matches and only gets better as the tournament goes on. But I think you're right, it's, I think I think you nailed it. It's kind of a combination of a brutal draw and yet in a vacuum. I'm not sure I would pick against Egan any single one of these matches.
Speaker 1:Exactly, and that's the problem with just throwing out. Things is like again, I can see her losing three times along the way to the semis, but it's like, do you bet it? She's still, in my mind, the most likely to make it there. No-transcript on other surfaces, and it's kind of similar um for Iga. So all right, let's, let's flip to the uh, the bottom half. Queen Wen like her a lot, I like her a lot. I like her. Taylor Townsend Pavlyuchenkova I like Nguyen. Through to the fourth round. I like her draw.
Speaker 2:I agree, live up to her seating. I mean, I don't know, I see a wild card Raducanu lurking who's shown some form of late. But yeah, mean alexandrova is legit.
Speaker 1:That's a brutal first round draw for radicanu and I didn't see that yeah against the seed. Yeah, exactly, yeah you're right, alexandrova, can she won? Did she win berlin last? She won something on grass leading into wimbledon last year. I think she beat. She beat coco at berlin last year yeah, right, right, she beat Coco. Yeah, that's right. That's a tough oh gosh, I don't even know who I'm going to. Who do you like there, JW? I don't know who I like. That's popcorn.
Speaker 2:I always it's as much hard overhead. We always like Taylor Townsend, especially on a fast surface that rewards net play.
Speaker 1:This is an interesting little pocket here, though I mean, I guess, I guess, uh man, I'll tell you oh gosh, that's a draw, alexandrova, and then second round. Whoever wins that, radicano, alexandrova has merton's second round. Who's really capable? And grass also. Yeah, that's a nice, a nice. I don't think Sakari gets through that section.
Speaker 2:Coming off a first-round loss at her previous major yeah, I love Kazukina, not on grass. What state is the land of opportunity? Is that like Arkansas or New Mexico? There's a lot of big opportunity here, in this little pocket?
Speaker 1:I don't know. It's someplace that Alexandrarova has never been man. I don't know who to choose in this Alexandrova-Raducanu match.
Speaker 2:How do we feel about Raducanu and the crucible of center court and sort of youngish player coming back to the scene of the crime? This is where her 2021 run got its momentum. Is that a plus or minus?
Speaker 1:like the shoulders are heavier now with with, with weight of expectation and eyeballs didn't play last year, um, so this is like a two-year build-up. Um, I think, uh, I I'm gonna go with alexandrova, uh, to the fourth round. Oh, all right, she hasn't been high on confidence. So this section is really confusing to me, agree, and because I have no idea who's coming through that little section, that little Alexandrova, raducanu, mertens, sakari section, because I don't know who's coming through there, I'm taking Queen Wen to the quarters.
Speaker 2:I think on numbers you have to. This is a very strange pocket of the draw, though, isn't it? Yeah, a little soft.
Speaker 1:Yeah, in this next little pocket pocket it's kind of opportunity knocking, because cause of kina, it's probably her worst service. Um, she can't really flatten out that forehand. It's just not her shot shape, um. But I don't. But dosa muclava would normally be like a layup here, but she just hasn't played any tennis.
Speaker 2:She's coming back from injury and re-injured this week, unfortunately. You're talking Mukhova, right yeah? Is she even going to play? I don't, yeah, exactly What'd she say? She's ready to inflict some damage. She told the WTA website, but now she's injured again. This is this is a very talented athletic player who's had deep runs at Wimbledon, who just cannot stay healthy.
Speaker 1:And has been in the finalist at Roland Garros, also knows how to play these big events. I mean, this is I don't know how Andreva is on Like we don't have a lot, we don't have a huge sample size here. Okay, I'm going Kha'Zix Kena, at least to the third round. I think Bedosa if Muhaba plays, I still think I'm taking Bedosa. I think it's a huge ask to come out and just all of a sudden play well, andreeva.
Speaker 2:I guess to the third round. Well, um, andreva, I guess to the third round. We feel this is this is the first event, and no doubt not the last, at which andreva's seated, but she plays a young junior rival right off the bat it doesn't bother, I don't think that's a huge deal.
Speaker 1:I think it's more just service specific and playing in majors. And she, I have kazakina and dreva. I'm taking kazakina to the fourth round, even though I don't really like really, yeah, we, we, we don't know. I mean, andreva had a nice run on the clay last year and didn't really do much in the grass.
Speaker 2:We don't, I, I just don't, I think I think she got to middle weekend and then she smacked her racket in the grass and got in trouble with the adults.
Speaker 1:Who hasn't gotten in trouble for that? Yeah, exactly, all right, I'll take.
Speaker 2:Andreeva, but keep going.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you could be right. Maybe I hate that Sabalenka, I mean Sabalenka's in the quarters.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think she's at full health, yeah in the quarters.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think I think she's at full health. Yeah, I think she's. Without looking at the matchups and only knowing what I know so far, I think she's my favorite. Um, just based on playing style uh, in question marks around rabakina and her health and short of matches coming in, uh, yeah, I think I think sabalenka is my favorite. All right, paolini is going to get through the third round. I have her right there in that little pocket with Cerebus.
Speaker 2:Tormo Never won a match at Wimbledon. Yeah, that's fine. Not often you see a top eight seed. Who has?
Speaker 1:an over, but way more than any other. Any other tournament like the Google Quirton you know, rule of being seated three and everyone hoping you're in that section of the Casper rude situation like more than any other tournament. You see good players relegated to mediocrity on grass very quickly. Um uh, oh, I know. Okay, upset special. What do you got? I have andrescu in the fourth round, bianca andrescu in the fourth round yeah, I could see that.
Speaker 2:What's the upset over Paolini?
Speaker 1:to get there no, just that entire section, when you haven't played much tennis and you know however long unseated. Yeah so Paolini in the third round, which is not really. It's an upset on paper, but it's more just like someone unseated that I'm punching in. I've gone chalk for a lot so far. K kostiak, maddie keyes tricky little one against trevisan. Um kostiak, what do you, I think, kostiak on grass. Does she have results on grass?
Speaker 2:she has. She has athleticism, but I don't know if she has. I'm I'm forever getting. Uh, I'm still on the madison keys train. I gotta tell you, maybe not to win events, but there is just so much power. I don't think she's losing eight players bunch next to her, do you? I know?
Speaker 1:uh, keys, andrescu, that's what I.
Speaker 2:That's where I'm at. That's a repeat from last year. Yeah, that's good andresco.
Speaker 1:I watched her play that match against osaka a couple weeks ago. She played pretty well, like she's. She's kind of her re-entering the conversation. Winning a bunch of matches at roland garros, like in playing well straight away off of her latest injury, has been pretty impressive. Now I want to pencil her in, potentially to the quarters. I just don't know if her body can take that many matches. That's always the question, yeah, or matches in a short week when your body hasn't. But it's a day off in between. All right, I'm right. Upset special BB in the quarters.
Speaker 2:Whoa, all right, it was Keyes Andreeva last year. Yeah, you said Andreeva. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. So you have Andreescu, our little 2019 magic. Okay, that's good, I have.
Speaker 1:Andreescu in the quarters, somehow Take it. Azarenka played pretty well last week. Azarenka Sloan, first round. Pliskova in there. Osaka, okay, I have. Alright, now we're getting fun.
Speaker 2:This is a good section here. What do we got?
Speaker 1:I have Osaka Vika third round Matchup matchup. Matchup matchup Vika second serve. Osaka can go after it. Osaka's in the third round. That means she's found form. I have osaka in the fourth round whoa, that would be her.
Speaker 2:That would be her career.
Speaker 1:Best wimbledon showing, I think I know I, by the way, I hate all of my picks, just just wait, wait, a minute.
Speaker 2:We got plush.
Speaker 1:Give a former finalist and number one player we don't like her plushie was not getting through as a ranker she's too solid, like there's a reason, like there's recency bias, but it's just if osaka wins two matches and she's got some momentum yeah that's the rank.
Speaker 1:I don't actually I'm gonna leave a. I'm gonna leave that one open and come back to it because I have so much respect for Vika. All right, kristea, coco, coco, coco, coco, coco. All right, and I don't see anyone bothering her. Dola Hyde is a decent. It's a pretty good first round matchup for her because she basically tops out on the forehand. I don't know that she can again, similar to Sviatek, you go through that forehand side on Coco like flat through that side. That's the plan and Dolehide can rip. But the shot shape is a little spinny for this deal. Coco Osaka Ooh man, this section is going to get me in trouble. I'm going to look like an idiot when?
Speaker 2:uh, yeah, right when. When dionne perry at her one band handed backhand, uh, um, we women. Emma navarro, top top 20 american player I love her.
Speaker 1:She lost first round in berlin.
Speaker 2:I don't know grass yeah, I think it's on your second Wimbledon, I think On the grass.
Speaker 1:A lot of times you just don't know, on grass it's such a specific service and if someone doesn't have a track record, it's hard to bet on that versus someone who does Coco Osaka? Who do you have? Do you have Vika through in that fourth round?
Speaker 2:I do, that's tough, I do. I scribble it down and now I'm looking at it. I don't know. Um, I mean, I do think. Just just big picture between you know, coco loses first round last year and that was the low ebb of her career. Perhaps, yeah, comes back now. So she's defending nothing, not that she really cares about that. She's got the ego kryptonite thing, but egos on the other side of the draw, and this is very different, by the way, and grass is very thing, but Eager's on the other side of the draw and Grass is very different, by the way, and Grass is very different. And yeah, and she's on a preferred surface. And now I'm looking at Coco's draw and boy, coco has nothing to complain about, at least week one. Yeah, I think you're probably right. I think on Grass, experience, inform. I think Azarenka probably beats, I don't know.
Speaker 3:Coco beats Azarenka.
Speaker 2:I'm with you Coco beats Azarenka. I like Coco and Jerez.
Speaker 1:God, they're like a sneaky team. For some reason I want to take Osaka, but I need to remember that she doesn't have a record on grass, but she was number one in the world been to a third round, then again, she doesn't have much of a record at rolling garros either, and she came within a point of beating the champion. Yeah, all right, just because she's the person I want to bet against the least, I'm gonna go coco semis and now I'm going backwards yeah, so let's let.
Speaker 3:So we we've gotten through the quarters. Tell us your quarters real quick, all right.
Speaker 1:So we're going to reset here quickly. We were going through the draw. Uh, top top of the food chain, I have Ega Vondrozova, um, but like the Ega's draw again is just so rough, like starting with Kenan uh Siniak of a third round, ostapenko, fourth round, who she's never beaten. I just have so much respect for Iga. Like I know the surface doesn't warrant this, but I have Iga in the semis. I have Pagula in this next thing and I'm thinking about doing something crazy. I'm doing it. Pagula gets to her first Grand Slam semi-final ever her first major semi-final ever.
Speaker 1:Oh wow, that's uh, yeah, first, yeah, geez, and that's. There's some stuff to see there, like that's brought up a lot that's that's a Pagula all right, I don't. I don't like this what I'm about to do. I think I'm betting with my heart here. I think I'm betting with my heart here, oh, and we're doing this pagula to beat ego.
Speaker 1:This is a good, this is this. This is so stupid. This is a good chance to plug our redraw show. So so basically all the picks that John and I fuck up. We're going to come early second week and basically make fun of ourselves and then do a redraw from I don't know round of 16 or quarters on whatever producer Mike decides.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it'll be. We'll record it next Monday, put it out quickly.
Speaker 1:Magula's in the final guys, oh my.
Speaker 2:God, wow, you're so triggered by that call. Remember how much shit you gave me for the good vibes of Rafa beating Zverev and going with karma and hard overhead. I think there's a real. You ever see the stat where, like, if you're an 80% free throw shooter, right, pretty good, four out of five shots go in. If I give you three free throws, the odds are better than 50-50. You're going to miss one and I feel like that's a little what's going on with Iga. Like you can't keep. I think she wins each one of these matches independently, but there's enough of a there's enough of a.
Speaker 3:There's enough of a missed.
Speaker 1:Um, I gotta get through though I gotta say I mean I picked gula in the final and I think she's like 55 45 to be bolter in the third round. So I don't know how this works. When you actually when you're not, when you actually write out a draw, like we're doing, and it's a live thing you have to fill in each section. You're not just lazily going pick a winner, pick a dark horse, like every other analyst on earth, and that's how they do their show. It's really easy to sit here and go like that I can do. But when you actually fill out the, the balls and strikes of tough third rounds, tough fourth rounds, tough quarters, it becomes a lot more complicated and you end up with picks where you're like how did, how did I get here exactly? Pagula's never been past the quarters and I have her in the finals of wimbledon. Like how does this work?
Speaker 2:well, and, and, and, there's the variable of injury. Right, I mean, that's why I have somebody like is she gonna show up, is she gonna like I'm?
Speaker 1:I'm a crazy person for not taking rabakina right, but it's like is she gonna get to the quarters? Is she gonna play? Like what's? What's her state of mind? How are we doing this? I have pagula in the final. I have pagula in the final, all right, all right.
Speaker 3:What about the other side?
Speaker 1:wait, is this abalenka's in the final? I have sabalenka beating pagula in the final. That's that's it. Uh, so I have zhang sabalenka up top.
Speaker 2:Whoa, whoa, whoa.
Speaker 3:Yeah, seriously man, that was rushed, what? All right, talk us through it. Talk us through it. What's your, yeah, what's your other corner?
Speaker 1:I'm gonna talk through. I have queen when and sabalenka in the court. This part is like so you're hearing, like my the angsty picks also, unlike most analysts, the ones I'm not confident in. I think I talk through more as opposed to I like sabalenka going through. I think she's the favorite against anyone she's the most. I think she's the most bankable name in this draw currently.
Speaker 1:Um played a match against Kazakina in Berlin, crushed her and then said listen, I'm mentally fried, like I need to just take a bit. Take a minute before, uh, wimbledon. Let my body reset, which I think is a mature decision. I'm not going to take anyone over her. I think she has a decent draw to get to the quarters against Zhang and then I just like her up there. I like the matchup against. I have Coco in the semis against beating Andreescu in the quarters and then so I rush through it because it's like one of the ones that makes sense to me as I'm looking at it. On the draw maybe more so than any other part of the draw that I've looked at I like Sabalenka. Sabalenka's going to win Wimbledon this year. Jw, who do you have in the bottom half there?
Speaker 2:I just I hate the variable of injury. So Sabalenka complained about a shoulder. We don't like shoulder plus tennis is a bad combo, but I don't know if she's just resting it for 10 days. I really like Coco, in part because of her draw. I also think I mean, tell me, I'm reading too much into this, but there's one player that really bedevils her and that's Iga. I mean this is like Serena Sharapova stuff. I mean this is really a bad head-to-head, sure? I don't know what you mean does it not?
Speaker 2:well? I mean, there's one player in the draw who really yeah, exactly, but does it not give her some solace, knowing I am not going?
Speaker 1:to play this player. That got that got super awkward when you were saying that, didn't it a?
Speaker 2:little bit. Yeah, we're talking women's tennis here. Um, I don't know, I I think, uh, I mean, you know again, let's also back up and do note that last year the player that won this event was unseated, had a losing career record at the tournament. So, uh, no one knows shit about shit. But I think, um, I, I really like coco to get to the final so you have coco ego.
Speaker 1:Are you going to do the thing? Are you going to put coco the final to have her upsetting ego in the finals of wimbledon? Precisely, you bet, don't criticize. Don't criticize me for betting with your heart, and then do this like literally roll back the tape here. This is where you edit, you do the wayne's world thing where you go back in time, mike, and then you play what he said, where he was just ripping on me for betting with my heart, and then he just did that coco's gonna have a nice first week.
Speaker 2:She's gonna get her teeth into this tournament. Brad's gonna get in her head and give her the pep talk she's relaxed knowing she doesn't have to play ega. If she plays her at all, it's not going to be until the trophy is on the court. Then all she has to do is win 12 games. You know what I've realized?
Speaker 1:Boom Doing these draw shows with you. You know, what I've realized Is that you start at the story that you want to write, whether it's Rafa in the semis, whether it's Rafa in the finals, last one, you start where you work backwards from, you're giving up the game. It blows the roof off of tennis. If Coco, oh, how do we make it even more dramatic? Let's let her beat Iga, who is her mental, like you know, taking up a lot of brain space All right, I'm cooking popcorn for this, john.
Speaker 2:I love it, you're giving up the game here. That's the key to media. You don't root for players, you root for storyline, and Coco awarding Iga in the final doesn't get better than that.
Speaker 1:True, but I like it. But I have a one word counter.
Speaker 3:Sabalenka. All right, one word counter.
Speaker 1:So this is actually like Mike. I don't know if we can release this. I think I'm embarrassed by all of our picks.
Speaker 3:So you got Sabalenka over over Pagula.
Speaker 1:I have Sabalenka over Pagula and then John has Coco over Iga on grass.
Speaker 3:Oh, can't wait for this redraft show.
Speaker 1:I hope listen.
Speaker 2:Has Coco ever played Sabalenka in a big, major match? Oh yeah, that's right she did. I think it was that.
Speaker 3:Um, all right, we got a redraft show in a week so we can uh we're gonna paper over this, yeah right, oh, I need a break before we go on to the men's yeah, let's, let's take a break.
Speaker 1:I need to like break.
Speaker 1:I need to, I need to come to terms with our decision. We will be right back with more served presented by Oslo sleep buds. All right, Welcome back to serve presented by Oslo sleep buds. Unfortunately, after, after those picks, I think they're going to dump us. I think they're so embarrassed by what we just did in the last segment that I think we're. I think we used to be presented by Oslo, uh, sleep buds. I will tell you something like in in. Luckily, we've gotten a lot of interest, uh, for sponsorship from companies that we love their product or are excited about their product, that we love their product or are excited about their product Wilson Olipop, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1:So I was dialed right. Oslo sends me this beautiful package, of which I think John was just holding it up, and we traveled overnight flight, First time our kids have been on, you know, to Europe. So making sure they're sleeping, kind of rattled, leaving 18,000 suitcases as we're leaving the house. And what did I do, Mike Hayden, I needed it. I needed the sleep buds. And what did I do? I put them in my checked bag like a moron. And guess how many without those sleep buds? Guess how many minutes I slept on the flight Guess. If you said one, you guessed too high.
Speaker 3:It was a big fat zero burger. You were missing out on the built-in noise-canceling, wonderfully relaxing babbling brook sound effects.
Speaker 1:As I told our friend when we were getting through, this deal is like. I sleep next to a babbling brook every night and I hope she doesn't listen to this, uh, or I hope she's in the next room, I hope she doesn't hear me doing the show, uh, but you guys have used them right jw, did you?
Speaker 2:yeah, I, I am not merely clairvoyant, I'm not just clairvoyant, but well rested. No, it's awesome, there's an ad me seriously here, I'll hold. Uh, do you have yours, mike, you got yours yeah, I got mine uh, they do have a babbling brook, that's. I thought it also bluetooth into your favorite podcast.
Speaker 3:Uh, I went to bed last night, you know, with the ever relaxing served with andy roddick it was. It was so relaxing. Put me. You know what's not relaxing is john's picks.
Speaker 1:Those aren't relaxing speaking of picks.
Speaker 1:I don't like my picks either, to be fair. All right, let's get to the. Let's get to the guys. Uh, thank you, uh, to oslo sleep buds for giving us some swag and at least giving two out of the three of us some sleep. The other one is a moron who packed it in the wrong bag, but I will not make that mistake again. All right, let's get it. Let's see. I know who the top seed is. I know who I'm going to look at first Yannick, sinner, huffman oh my God. Baratini and Sinner.
Speaker 2:Second round oh, that's the one that's why you.
Speaker 1:That's why you had that a shit-eating grin on your face. Oh, that's a big one. And then fuchovich gets the worst draws in majors. Like he can't get all right, obviously, center, but I mean, I'm not. Listen. I love barrettini on grass. I think he's two-time queens winner, wimbledon finalist, like great great grass court player, but like I obviously can't pick against sinner off of the heels of holly being number one in the world, I just, but that's not, that's not the second round that that sinners team wanted to see. I'll tell you that much, right, um?
Speaker 2:can we just stop to uh note sidebar what an absolute star model barrettini is. Now that you're in italy, you're going to see this guy, and I'm always thinking 99 out of 100 people that walk by the Hugo Boss billboard or see this guy on a bus with a fancy Hugo Boss watch. Do not realize this is a former top 10 player in Wimbledon finalists. So if he doesn't make it past the second round, at least he has a lucrative modeling career. But yeah, imagine being the stallion stalwart and you've reached a wimbledon final and you're feeling healthy and you're finally back and then you find out you have to play the other wimbledon, the other, uh, italian, who's the number one seed in the second round. That's a. It's a rough draw for both of these guys so it was bigger.
Speaker 1:In italy is center, um, you know it's. So you were going through that thing with Berrettini's plot link career and the only thing I had in my head as you were going through it is actual fan of the show Ben Stiller and Zoolander going. Berrettini's really, really, really really really good looking, well played.
Speaker 1:All right Greek spore through to the third round. Uh, there is some scar tissue there. They played first round of holly, and center lost the first set. Greek sport tends to get leads against uh guys in the top five, and then he hasn't beaten a guy in the top five. Uh, center, center, chicken dinner. Through to the fourth round. Uh, nico jari, your guy wait, what's that sound?
Speaker 2:I hear it's.
Speaker 1:It's the upset whistle yeah, well, I don't, I don't. Did you learn your lesson from roland garros? Because you were kind of uh I'm down on.
Speaker 2:Uh, my, my passion for chileans now runs as thin as the country is itself. Uh, I'm, I'm this.
Speaker 3:I'm over.
Speaker 2:I'm over Chile.
Speaker 1:I've had it with those guys.
Speaker 1:I'm going Chapo over. Uh, chapo, former semi-finalist at Wimbledon, altmeyer, that's not going to do anything. Lloyd Harris, uh, mickelson, alex Mickelson can play on the surface. Uh, mickelson, I have Mickelson Chapo in the third round. I'm taking Mickelson in Ben Shelton's section. I don't like doing it. I love Ben Shelton, but he has not shown us enough on the grass. First round of Queens, another, a very ordinary loss, um, last week as well, yeah, which who'd never want to match on tour, I don't think before at tour level. So, chapo, mickelson. I don't know who I like in that one, yet I'll go, I'm going I mean, this is probably just a homer pick like fellow American, I'm going Mickelson to the fourth round and I'm going center, obviously, through that one. Dimitrov Manorino is normally really good on grass and he hasn't won many matches so far this season. He's, he's playing the uh.
Speaker 2:This is. This is the men's 35 championship here. This is this is this is the lamaray club championship, exactly manorino, right, they're gonna have cocktails, uh, on the 17th green afterwards um, I'm taking manorino.
Speaker 1:I'm taking dimitrov through this section, though like dimitrov I have in the fourth round um laevich gareen warinka, um manor, I like manor, manorino, dimitro, I like dimitroff in that section um, you don't.
Speaker 2:You don't like the career slam for stan.
Speaker 1:He's only one wimbledon away no, I don't, I don't okay. Oh, this is a tough one, man. This is a really tough second round too, as we look down this.
Speaker 2:Next the triple z first Chinese male ever seated at a major that's really cool and he played great in where was it?
Speaker 1:Halle, I think. Triple Z and Strufe. Second round Two sleepers, huh, yeah, I just don't know enough about Triple Z Like I saw him when he was playing. He played Eubanks. Eubanks served for the match, but Eubanks is a grass quarter who you think of? He transitions into the net a lot. He doesn't actually serve and volley a ton. Maybe situationally he does a little bit Curious to see how Triple Z I don't know how he fends off serving volleyers like quick return, quick off the mark, passing shot. I'm going Struff, third round, upset triple Z. This is it. I'm going. You guys are going to think this is nuts Daniil, who you know. I love Medvedev Mueller. Okay, so I have Medvedev Struff. I'm going Struff to the fourth round.
Speaker 2:That's an upset pick.
Speaker 1:It is. That's probably dumb. So I have Dimitrov Struff. I'm going to take Dimitrov just because I feel like he's more likely to get to the fourth round, not because in that individual matchup, but I think he's most likely to get to that fourth round because struff obviously has medvedev triple z. That's a. That's a pretty big cause. But I have sinner dimitrov, uh on the top, uh, the chuckster this is. This is the second quadrant.
Speaker 2:We're starting now, right this is, yeah, this.
Speaker 1:So I'm going. Uh, second, second, uh quarter. Uh, alcaraz is just going through. That's a. That's a pretty comfortable draw. Um, I don't know, like la hall, that much qualifier from estonia, but I don't think that it will matter. Um, tiafo obviously has been struggling, as a seed in that section is normally very good on grass. Uh has had, I'm sure he would tell you he's had a bad year by his standard. You're a victim of your own shadow sometimes and then got hurt in Queens. So Arnaldi, even that one. I don't know if I like Francis, I don't know how healthy he is, I don't even know how well Arnaldi plays. I just know that that's a little bit of a struggle in the goo right now. Chorich I guess I'll take Chorich to the third round, even though he hasn't been playing well. Alcaraz is going to do it.
Speaker 2:That's a nice draw. Right For a defending champion, that's a comfortable draw.
Speaker 1:Umber, who normally is streaky on fast courts. I haven't heard his name in like six weeks. Um, he played okay at monte carlo and then he's kind of been a little bit slow since then. Oh, there's one, okay, we got him. Oh, not, uh. So sorry, uh, by that bias I'm in that next little section down. I have alcaraz in the fourth, that's an upset pick right, that's enough. Nakashima can play on grass. By the way, yeah, exactly, almost beat. Curious the year, that curious uh, in the round of 16, was it? Yeah?
Speaker 2:two years ago. Yeah, two years ago yeah, round of 16.
Speaker 1:He lost to curious in five um, but then he played jordan thompson second round. That's a tricky little section that those are two really good grass court players.
Speaker 2:Um, bear, I'm about three or four Aussies to keep an eye on, I would say, and Jordan Thompson is one of them.
Speaker 1:Gosh, it's tough. I'm going Okay, this is, you got more. You guys are going to hate this. Umber is going to get through. I have, I'm taking this. You guys are going to like like this. I hate this so much. I really don't like these shows. They stress me out. I gotta be honest. They stress me. I hate doing these shows. We got a mulligan coming the read. I don't like a mulligan man. That's not real life. Um, alcor, I have not gonna uh, real life, um alcor, I am not gonna uh, we got a second serve um.
Speaker 1:Who do you like? Nakashima, thompson, thompson, you like thompson over nakashima there? Yeah, I think so. And then do you like, do you have umbear through, or?
Speaker 2:thompson, I don't, I don't, I mean so look at, look at umbear, who's not a great grass court player.
Speaker 1:Which is shocking, because his game should be good on grass.
Speaker 2:Yeah, right, and it's sort of what about? I don't even know if he wins that first match? Van de Zandtjorp is apparently halfway. He sort of talked existentially about how he doesn't know if he even wants to keep playing tennis. So I'm not sure what we read there. Liam Brody nice guy, but a wild card. I don't know what we read there. This, this is an interesting boy. If you're, if you're, Carlos Alcaraz, you, you owe a fruit basket to the tennis gods. This is your defending champion. You're coming off winning the previous major and you can. I mean, what a nice, nice, nice horse week.
Speaker 3:First tennis gods mentioned.
Speaker 1:I like Alcaraz in the quarters Tennis gods are getting Harry and Davids.
Speaker 2:All right. Who do you got Alcaraz in the quarters, yeah.
Speaker 1:I'm trying to think. I think I'm going to go Nakashima in the fourth round again.
Speaker 2:To beat Jordan Thompson, all right.
Speaker 1:I don't feel good about it, but I don't know. It's probably a homer pick, honestly. Okay, I mean this draw for Alcaraz. As I'm looking through now, I'm down to the Tommy Paul section. I like Tommy Bublik's not easy, but I'm going to take Tommy Paul. The fourth round, tommy Paul in the quarters against Alcaraz, is that section? That section is that's exactly what I have. That's not.
Speaker 2:Casper Rude, with two career Wimbledon wins to his record.
Speaker 1:No, it's a short trip to London for him most years and I love Casper. But Navone, who's seated in that section, I think I read that he's never won a tour level match on anything, except for Clay, clay. Yeah, so Sonago can play. Okay, sonago plays Navone. He's going to win that. That's like the biggest, like that looks. That's not an upset. That's like Sonago is going to be a five to one favorite in the match against the seed. Sonago can actually play. Sonago is going to be a five to one favorite in the match against the seed. Sonago can actually play. Sonago is going to be in the?
Speaker 1:uh, in the fourth round, sonago, paul uh, tommy paul tommy paul, though tommy paul, right, tommy paul, yeah, I think he's playing great. So pedro martinez mac. I mean, max purcell is a little weird because he comes in on everything, but I think tommy returns well enough. Zuzu bergs kazoo, I mean public, is brutal, like he could be nasty on grass, but he could also lose first round events exactly all by far the most reliable choice, uh, in this section, sonico can play on grass, though watch out for him. I like him in the fourth round. All right, I'm flipping over to the rublev section. Um, I mean, all of a sudden I'm looking at musetti, like in the grass quarter after queens and that rubble one-hander, nice slice.
Speaker 2:Well, you were giving me shit for musetti last week. I I think musetti's got a real chance here. I don't. I don't trust rubel anymore.
Speaker 1:I like how you're I like how you're, I like your grass court. Bona fides were just, you know, one-hander. He's got a nice slice.
Speaker 2:He just got to the final of Queens Club. I believe, yeah, I have Rublev winning that. Oh, I didn't see this one. Wait, look at Korda Davidovich-Fokina.
Speaker 1:I know. Are you Musetti to the fourth round? Are you Musetti to the fourth round? Are you Musetti to the fourth round or are?
Speaker 2:you, rublev, I'm a grudging, grudging Rublev, which is par for the course. You know what? I'm not a Rublev full believer. But fourth, round show. You know what? Sean Wortham.
Speaker 1:What do you got you know what? Ru? What do you got Rublev, second serve, your boy Grasscourt. Musetti was knocking down one hand of returns. Grasscetti was knocking down one hand of returns. I'm going to have more faith in your guy than you do. That's what I'm going to do. I'm going to flip your guy on you Big, low Musetti. Fourth round.
Speaker 2:Grasscourt. Okay, um Busetti. Fourth round. All right.
Speaker 1:Good man, good man. Okay, davidovich Fikina, like sneaky, beat Hercotch first round, who's one of the top five or six grass court players that low center of gravity situation we were talking about. He has not been playing well this year. Okay, I got my second. Like kind of upset controversial situation. Um, yeah, I think sits upon, gets more credit on grass than he deserves. I don't think he returns first serves well at all. Um, I don't think if he can't lean back and elevate that, that that backhand, um, I don't know that I like it. I think there's been some turnover, his trainer publicly calling him out for basically, basically, like the worst thing someone could say about you if they leave your camp is that I'm leaving your camp because you don't work hard enough. That's brutal, that would cause me so much stress. I like subcourt on the quarters no argument. Taylor Fritz, rinder Kanesh.
Speaker 2:Hey, this Taylor Fritz. Does this make you nervous? This Taylor Fritz match o'connell no lefty, I don't know.
Speaker 1:No um, the lefty thing is really is really problematic for guys that don't have a strong left hand on their backhand side. Right, like you're serving someone pulls you wide and if you can kind of like and especially that flat ball, like I like playing lefties even though my backhand sucked because at least it was flat and punchy so I could return, I actually returned lefties better on my backhand side on that wide one than I would on my forehand side where I kind of had to like grind a forehand return and like it was easier to square up. I think Taylor has that thing. He has a really strong left hand.
Speaker 2:He doesn't get beat for pace on his backhand. Very often he gets beat for movement, but I like that, doesn't For the record. Chris, I was saying one for the record. He's a righty but one-handed backhand Got it Well, one-handed backhand.
Speaker 1:I knew there was something.
Speaker 2:yeah right, nice to see Rinder Nesh. Remember? This is the guy who had to retire when he kicked this courtside signage leading the match in Paris. Nice to see. That has not prevented him from playing the next major All right, this is going to be a quick section for me.
Speaker 1:Tabilo, great job in Rome. Dan Evans is another person who fell at Queens. Okay, taylor Fritz. Oh, this is going to get really. I'm going to bet with my heart here on this one coming up. Okay, so, taylor Fritz, I have him through to the fourth round, the next section. Jack Draper Ooh.
Speaker 2:A lot of heat.
Speaker 1:Second round Battle of the Brits, jack Draper, cam Norrie. Very interesting Cam Norrie, that's lefty-lefty Do you know, Jack Draper number five.
Speaker 2:One of the boards I saw number five with the oddsmakers. That's absurd, absurd, right.
Speaker 1:I mean nice run-up, nice game got. That's because they've been reading john wortham's mailbag about jack draper that's because they're, uh, that's because they're, they're brits uh, you're juicing the numbers there. You like draper over nori.
Speaker 2:I do, though, yeah, I do okay, and then nori's had a rough, rough year so I'm assuming you have zverev through in his little section.
Speaker 3:Marcus.
Speaker 1:Garone can play on grass, but I don't think he's going to beat Zverev. Okay, zverev Draper.
Speaker 2:Zverev.
Speaker 1:You think, yeah, Draper is really good, Returning first serves consistently. And also I worry about his body. Like he's never played extended five set tournaments before His body kind of goes sideways sometimes I'm not totally confident in his fitness level. Three to five set format Zverev Now this is a big one. Zverev, Taylor Fritz on grass. What do you think about that one JW?
Speaker 2:Zverev too. What do you think about that one jw? There too, I I think my uh irrational and seldom, uh seldom reciprocated love of sebastian korter makes it. So I don't have to answer that. But no, I I think that's an opportunity for fritz. I just don't know if that match happens, zvera, fritz on grass. I think I might go fritz, is that crazy?
Speaker 1:no well, also, I'm more worried about draper than anyone. Fritz is going to have to go through. All right, guys, I mean I have all of it. Let's just Fritz for fun, I'm doing the Wartham thing where I'm writing my story backwards Korda Fritz. This would be amazing, by the way, this would be so much fun. Korda Fritz would be fun. Yeah, I'm going Fritz to the semis.
Speaker 3:Woo His first major semi.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and that can be said about a lot of people these days, to be fair, it's true. Can be said about our boy Rublev, can be said it can. Ok, so let's take it this way. The only person in this section there's two guys in this section that I think have been to a semi of a major, oh no, nishikori's in there, never mind, didn't see him tucked in there, but I was going to say it was Zverev and then Sneaky Kamnori at Wimbledon a couple years ago. All right, I have Fritz in the semis. Apparently Fritz in the semis. Apparently Fritz in the semis. The bottom section Hubie Hercotch. He's going Murray, we don't even know if Murray's going to play. I have Hubie through to the third round. I have Sarundalo Mahach. I don, third round. I have Sarundalo Mahach. Like I don't know. I don't think it matters as much.
Speaker 2:Mahach, it's a huge ball and he's not a huge guy.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I'll go him Hubie either way. Like he's in the, I like him in the fourth round in that section, regardless of who he plays. Oje Ali Asim is another guy who fell in Hala and retired FAA Demonur. Okay, I like the Demon in the fourth round against Hubie Hercotch, and I need to think about that one. First, let's look down at the bottom, which means let's check out Novak. Novak has a nice draw.
Speaker 2:I was gonna say, no, novak can't compete, and uh, carlos can both go to Harry and David's. Uh, novak's owes someone a fruit basket too. Look at this, he.
Speaker 1:He doesn't play a top 100 player until the third round yeah, novak, okay, I'm, I'm gonna, and obviously Eubanks is in there, very capable on grass. We'll give Banks some love. Holger Runel searching, searching, searching, searching, yeah, but oh okay. Well, karen Hatchinoff is going to be in the fourth round, karen.
Speaker 2:Hatchinoff is going to be in the fourth round Beating you think beating Eubanks.
Speaker 1:I have Eubanks in there, but that could just be because I really like Eubanks, right, but and also he's really good on grass. Okay, so I'm going to save everyone some time on this next section, echeverry great player, novak. I like Novak. I mean maybe he has one leg, I don't know, and I still have him. I have Novak in the semis If he decides he's going to play Novak. Do you have Demon Demon Hercotch? If you have them in the fourth round, who do you like there? I do, and I have Demon Demon Hercotch, if you have them in the fourth round, who do you like there?
Speaker 2:I do and I have Demon. I just I don't trust Hercotch. I know big game success on grass, I just don't trust him, especially in a tight match. And I think Demon, especially coming off a very nice Roland Garros but also he's a really nice grass court player.
Speaker 3:And the movement and the speed.
Speaker 1:Yeah, exactly exactly second week player last year and uh well, I'll tell you this if you're, if you're novak's crew, and you get someone who plays, you know, kind of through the court flat on each side, moves, well, or you get like the biggest server potentially on earth, you'll take you want. If you Novak, you want that matchup against demon, I think, because demon can't take the racket out of Novak's hand and her coach can make it to where it's like, all of a sudden we're playing, we're playing a sets from four all on a breaker right, he can do that to players and then it's like kind of, you know, you trim the margins and you get a shorter shelf life. All right, so I'll work backwards from the bottom half.
Speaker 3:Wait real quick. I do have a question. You know, say, god forbid, novak is hampered or unable to continue. He does play but then is unable to continue with the knee. Who do you see coming out of that, and how does that affect the lead up to the semis?
Speaker 1:I think I like Harkoch if Novak's not there. He got a bunch of matches in. I don't hate what John's saying as far as just trust versus, you know, demon et cetera. I just think he just thumps, he just throws bombs and he's going to get. Looks at Demon. Second serve Hatchinov. I think it's a pick-em. Honestly. Hatchinov is capable, makes run at majors, can play the longer format, but I think Novak, if even close to healthy, is going to find his way through this tournament. I think big, big deal is that the first week, right, you're looking at first round, second round, third round. I don't see that those matches dictating that he's going to be on the court forever. If he's even close to healthy, it doesn't look like the types of matches where he's going to be pushed four or five hours on that knee, which is obviously a bigger deal. Now Say something controversial when you have surgery, you don't want to play long matches. Crazy, right.
Speaker 2:Funny how that works. Novak Herkoc 7-0 head-to-head for Novak, but yeah, I think. But I think Mike's question is a good one, which is basically we're we all have great faith in Novak and his track record speaks for itself, but if this injury is makes him a non-starter, or he plays 15 minutes, has a bad slip and says you know what? I want to play the Olympics, no, mas, it's a whole different conversation.
Speaker 1:So and also also, if you give me one name, who I think will be in the final from the bottom half, because novak is projecting strength and health. You know, practicing with center, you don't take on a practice against the number one player in the world, um, if you're not feeling okay, because there are some psychological things in play. Um, so if you're asking me, assuming novak is even close to healthy and he's obviously going to play, which is crazy considering where we were two weeks ago, where I said something nuts and said that's a short timeline three weeks from surgery to first round wimbledon is a short timeline. And that got me in trouble because that was apparently a fucking stupid thing to say.
Speaker 2:It's your West bias. Where does that leave us? You've got a Rome pool to get to?
Speaker 1:Where does this leave us? I have Novak in the final, I have Alcarez, alcarez, sinner. Who do you got Sinner Novak final? And I have Sinner winning the tournament, not because I think he's better on grass than Novak, I just think he's more likely to be there. No, I'm Sinner plays Bar tini second round. I just want to do, I just want to do a redraw now now, just right now, we'll do an all cast after hours I'm gonna.
Speaker 1:So here's what I want to say. I want to, I'm gonna like, bitch out of this center. Alcarez, call a little bit, because I do want to see them play like it does matter, like it's. So you can't. How am I picking a mat? I mean, this is, this is why it's dumb, and we're just guessing at a certain point, because I'm gonna have 11 or 12 more days of intel if we actually get to this match.
Speaker 1:So at roland garros, I picked center at the beginning of the tournament and then by the time the semis came, I'm like, I think I like Alcaraz in this given match, right, so listen, it all changes. I think the most bankable person coming into this, most matches good lead-up, is Sinner. But I also think Alcaraz's draw is a lot more straightforward than Yannick Sinner's. You know, dealing with Berrettini, dealing with a guy he barely beat in three sets in Greek Spore, dimitrov versus, you know, I guess, sinner. But I'm reserving the right to change that based on the eye test and what I see for the rest of this tournament. But I like whoever. I choose between Sinner and Alcaraz, I like winning. Just because of Novak's knee, I have him in the final, but does that mean he's healthy? Does that mean he gets there? There is. I'm gonna say another thing. There is a more than zero chance that that knee will bother him and it will affect the tournament. Maybe that's crazy, is that? Is that just fucking nuts?
Speaker 2:producer Mike the 37 year old with knee surgery. Uh, might be affected by the knee three weeks later. Man, you are filled with hate today, andy ron, oh, dude, it's coming for me I feel.
Speaker 1:I feel block city coming. I'm gonna be like matabo on twitter just blocking fools yeah, take, take john's advice. Finally, yeah, it's like I say something crazy. Like three weeks is a short turnaround. We just don't know about Novak's knee and they're like your kids are assholes. I'm like, all right, awesome.
Speaker 3:So John.
Speaker 1:That seems like the same.
Speaker 3:John, does your quarter semis champion align with Andy's?
Speaker 2:It does not, but that's okay. That's why we do these shows. Tell us what I missed. We have a defending champion who also won the previous major, who beat Sinner to get there. Sinner, who has a tougher draw, he plays a fellow Italian, potentially in round two. This sounds silly and gossipy, but it's logistically. His girlfriend is a seated player on the women's side.
Speaker 3:I just don't know why, you would.
Speaker 2:Logistically, his girlfriend is a seated player on the women's side, he's got to sit in a bar. Ask alex diminor about the game.
Speaker 1:She's a seated player at the brunch open when, when I mean like was she a seat in australia like?
Speaker 2:has he done this before? Is this his job? I'm just trying to figure out why. Why things would change if alcaraz beat sinner in a a semifinal on clay when Sinner won the previous major. Why would the script flip?
Speaker 1:I think Alcaraz is significantly better. I think he's better than Sinner on clay. I think that's Sinner's worst service and it could be Alcaraz's best service, I don't know.
Speaker 2:I just don't know what in the script would have flipped where you wouldn't. It's like momentum investing. Why would pick against NVIDIA when it's on like?
Speaker 1:I don't have a good, obviously I'm, so I'm not arguing against you. All of your points are valid, past logistical schedule Even the girlfriend one.
Speaker 1:I think it will be fine. I don't think that's a factor at all, but I don't know between Sinner and Alcaraz, if we get there, I want to see the eye test. You know we'll see, but I don't know. I do these shows or we do these shows in these live look ins and I feel incredibly insecure by the end of them with my picks, always, always. And they weren't horrible at Roland Garros, but you know, ben Wertheim does his picks.
Speaker 2:Wait, all jokes aside, I mean I always try to make this point Like look, you can pick a winner, it doesn't make you a genius, you can pick, it doesn't make you a moron. But for the record, I think we actually did pretty well at Roland Garros.
Speaker 1:No, yeah, you had a rough first three days, but then your guys held strong after that.
Speaker 2:Freaking Chile. How's this for a segue? We have dipped our toes in this draw, but I want to see your kids cannonballing into the pool in five minutes.
Speaker 1:The kids will be cannonballing very shortly. That I am confident in the kids will be cannonballing very shortly, that I am confident in. What I am not confident in is pretty much everything that Wertheim and I have said over the last hour and a half. As I'm looking at my sheets, I have lots of regrets. Jw final thoughts when are you heading?
Speaker 2:over to London and what's your program over there? Leaving in about 24 hours? I'm getting too old for these red eyes, but Tennis Channel will have a six-hour show. Some people in Santa Monica, some of us in Wimbledon. Always a fun time of the year, always a fun tournament, and you know I mean. Part of what we love about sports is the fact they're unscripted. So don't take any of these picks personally.
Speaker 1:All right. Well, I can't wait to see you in our walk of shame through the redraw show. That'll be fun. I'm sure we will have plenty of text. So, as much banter as you give Wertheim and I on Twitter, you can't match the shtick we give each other when someone's pick loses. Just so we're all clear. We're all in this together. We do the exact same things that you're doing, just maybe we're not quite as personal. Anyways, but thank you for watching, listening to Serve. We feel lucky that you choose to spend time with us and we'll see you later on during Wimbledon to spend time with us, and we'll see you later on during Wimbledon. This is Serve, presented by Oslo Sleep Buds, which I am definitely using. Will not make the mistake of putting them in my checked luggage.
Speaker 3:Yeah, John, don't put them in your luggage, John.
Speaker 1:Yeah, seriously, make sure you have those in your backpack. All right, this has been Serve presented by Oslo Sleep Budbuds. Thanks for watching.