Salty Podcast 28.5 Bonus | 🌪️Hurricane Beryl Chat with Key West John 🗣️

Hey everybody, this is Captain Tinsley with a bonus episode of the Salty Podcast! In this special episode, I chat with Key West John about Hurricane Beryl.

John has been my go-to weather expert, and it's a bonus for me to have him on the air. We already went live earlier today due to a time change for an interview with a guest from the UK, so this worked out great.

We dive into the latest on Hurricane Beryl, discussing its path and potential impact. John shares his insights on hurricane tracking, the accuracy of forecasts, and the importance of staying vigilant. We also touch on some personal stories and experiences related to past hurricanes like Irma and Sally.

Join us for an engaging conversation about weather, sailing, and preparedness. If you're interested in the latest on Hurricane Beryl or want to hear some seasoned sailors' advice on storm preparation, this episode is for you!   🌪️🌊⛵️ 

Listen to the full episode and stay tuned for more updates from The Salty Podcast! 

#SaltyPodcast #HurricaneBeryl #KeyWestJohn #SailingLife #StormStories #SailingAdventures  #HurricaneBeryl #KeyWestJohn #SailingCommunity #SailingPodcast #BoatLife #LiveAboard #WeatherChat #SailingExperiences #NauticalTalk #StormSurvival #HurricaneChat 

Chapters

• 0:00 Hurricane Beryl Forecast and Discussion
• 11:07 Hurricane Precautions for Boats
• 18:50 Boat Hurricane Preparation and Insurance
• 26:35 Tracking Hurricane Trends and Predictions
• 36:36 Navigating Weather Websites for Predictions
• 43:10 Dockside Chat on Boat Life

Transcript

Capn Tinsley: 0:00

Hey everybody, this is Captain Tinsley. Salty Abandoned with a bonus episode of the Salty Podcast, A chat with Key West. John, hey, Key West.

Key West John: 0:10

John, thanks for referring to me as a bonus. That makes me feel really good. It's a bonus for me to be on the air with you.

Capn Tinsley: 0:20

Cool. Well, I already went live at 3 o'clock this afternoon because it was a guy from the UK, so we had to go a little earlier. So this worked out great that you were available. But you're my guy when it comes to weather, so I just thought it'd be kind of cool if you came on here and we talked a little bit about Hurricane Beryl. I think we're both we're. We're relaxing a little bit, right, we don't think?

Key West John: 0:44

it's going to come.

Key West John: 0:45

Yeah, at the moment. You know it's good to. You know we've been watching it for what? Seven days now and it's staying. You know pretty much they're getting really accurate with these forecasts but, as you all know, they can be inaccurate. So it's good to keep an eye on and keep watching. And this one has stayed pretty much true to form. As soon as they become named, then they get the cone, as they call it, that the National Hurricane Center puts out Prior to. That is everybody's model and what they think it's going to do, and you know it's just a guess. But this one stayed pretty much true to forecast and so far, so good for us.

Capn Tinsley: 1:28

Well, let's talk about, because I haven't entirely kept up with. All I know is there's a lot of boats in Grenada and St Lucia and all that down there, because it's below what do they call it? The demarcation line or whatever.

Key West John: 1:43

Yeah, it's below the hurricane. That has surprised a lot of people the last few years. You know right people. A few years ago they were headed to grenada so they'd be below the hurricane line I haven't talked to they.

Capn Tinsley: 1:54

Leave their boats there they had two.

Key West John: 1:57

I went bam, bam, you know, right through there, so it they have kind of moved a little farther south, it seems, like you know, for whatever reason. So, uh, that's basically we're starting to get um earlier ones, and the earlier ones usually get started down in the um the caribbean, like these are are these actually further south?

Key West John: 2:15

yeah, it's usually usually early, stays up, you know a little bit to the um, to the south, you know. So, so, so, and then we got this one coming behind this one, but it looks like it's got a less than 40% chance of development now. So it probably won't be as bad as barrel, barrel, barrel, barrel, whatever they're saying. It got up to 175 mile-an-hour winds at one time and and you know, that's kind of scary, that's intense. Fortunately it's staying on a good path. That will. You know. You're a place, I'm in another place. I have the island of Cuba. That protects me, because if it comes toward me it's got to cross Cuba and then that will weaken it.

Capn Tinsley: 3:04

Yeah, so let's just say that key west john is in key west, and then tinsley and then tinsley is right here. I hope you can see my cursor. I'm right there, so it looks like we're in the clear. Um, I did relax a little bit in 2020 and got walloped, but that's pretty cool.

Key West John: 3:26

Yeah, it's kind of. I remember Irma you know that was in 2017, the big one. Well, it was coming. You know, somewhat on this track Right here, wasn't it A little bit more? Oh, you got it. Look at this Right here. So we're clicking along there and we're thinking like, okay, it's, uh, it's coming. Um, do we want it? It was supposed to turn and go up the east coast of florida. So, you know, I'm saying, okay, get ready, turn, get ready. Then, all of a sudden, it doesn't turn, it keeps coming. And so now we're saying, okay, now don't turn, so, uh, but it then it. You know, as you well know, it eventually turned and kind of headed right for Key West, with just a little bit of a enough of a bend to the northeast, that the last 12 miles of the Keys stayed in pretty good shape, but then the middle Keys got hit pretty hard.

Capn Tinsley: 4:14

So it's all about right over Marathon and then went right up in here. So do you know? I've seen some pictures of what was going on in uh, in st lucia, and I've been trying to follow up with some of the people I've interviewed and some of the people I know and oh yeah, I know one boat that's in the dr and she said their boat is fine.

Capn Tinsley: 4:39

I know another one that's in st lucia and I haven't heard from them, um, and they were here, though I think they were at home in Colorado and they left their boat in St Lucia. And then I know some other people that have their boat in Antigua and I think that's okay.

Key West John: 4:54

Yeah, they probably had some pretty good winds. So it'll be interesting to see how their boats came out, because it was pretty strong when it came through there. What about in the ER? It was south of there so they were getting some pretty good winds. It was far enough south that they probably did not get really catastrophic winds. When you see those winds that they're saying, that's the winds that are right in the core and, as you know, as it moves out from there, it decreases exponentially on the winds that are right in the core and, as you know, as it moves out from there, it decreases exponentially on the wind.

Key West John: 5:28

So that you know, if you can get 50 or 100 miles away from the center, then you really reduce your catastrophic winds quite a bit. So but so far it's been out in the water. You know, south of Jamaica maybe far enough south of Jamaica that they didn't get a whole lot of damage. And then, as you were just showing me the pictures earlier about the Cayman Islands, they were not that bad.

Capn Tinsley: 5:53

Not yet. I mean, I've got a live shot here, I'll show you.

Key West John: 5:57

The last I saw was really close to the Cayman Islands, so they should be getting and here's another thing to factor in See this is Caymanman.

Capn Tinsley: 6:06

I mean, look how calm it is. I'm like that is so calm yeah, that's kind of this big old, did this break off into two?

Key West John: 6:14

that's what it looks like, yeah that's just kind of a little spin off on the. Uh on the bad side, see the the good. There's good and bads with that.

Capn Tinsley: 6:22

This storm has been moving fairly quickly.

Key West John: 6:25

We got the dirty side and the yeah, and the reason for that is if you think about the circulation is doing one thing. So if the movement is, you know, 20 knots or 20 miles per hour, that adds on the bad side. You know the side that's spinning, you know the northeast or you know the right side or whatever way you want to refer to it. Right, it's adding 20 knots to those winds because of the movement of the storm, but then the other side of the storm is taking 20 off of that. You know, because you know the way the movement, you know it reduces those winds on the south side. So it's kind of it's, I guess, a good way to look at theirs. It's just it's spinning and then you're it's moving and spinning and then just that just the spin or the movement adds to the spin. Right, that makes any sense.

Capn Tinsley: 7:14

So what do you think it's going?

Key West John: 7:15

to do so.

Capn Tinsley: 7:15

That's why that's when it gets to.

Key West John: 7:18

Uh, I think this is going to stick with it. I think it's going to stick with the plan. It'll go across the yucatan, it it would be really hard-pressed now to make a sharp turn toward you and come through the Cuban and the Yucatan, which then it would not lose a lot of its strength. But if it comes across the Yucatan, the Yucatan is a pretty large body of land and it will reduce quite a bit. It will come back to hurricane strength sometime before getting to texas, which hurricane strength 74 miles an hour. So not too, not too bad, I think. Uh, you know, as long as you can get through tomorrow afternoon without it making a sharp turn to the north and cutting the gap in qs.

Capn Tinsley: 8:01

Huh, is that what you're telling?

Key West John: 8:03

me oh yeah yeah, it's pretty much out of the thread here because of the gap across Cuba. But if it gets out to the western end of Cuba and did make that cut through the waters so that it didn't have land to interfere with it, it could get fairly strong for you. But you know they're pretty accurate on these models now.

Capn Tinsley: 8:27

It doesn't appear that's going to happen. Yeah, until they're not.

Key West John: 8:31

Yeah, it's like I've told you this before. Everybody says, oh well, it's going to turn before it gets to us. And the old man told me one time said hurricanes, they don't turn until they turn. So you can't count that until they really turn. But this one, this one, seems to be staying.

Capn Tinsley: 8:49

You know, pretty much true to form and like, so let me ask you know I'm moving my boat further, uh, to a marina that's more inland. Um, on the 16th, that was the soonest I could get in orange Beach, because of a fishing rodeo they didn't have an opening, and so do you think I can make it Until July 16th? Well, you think the other ones only got a 40% chance Of forming.

Key West John: 9:14

Earlier it was showing a pretty good chance Of development, but now it's showing less than 40% development. So yeah, I think you'll be fine. Guess what?

Capn Tinsley: 9:25

We have 66 people watching right now and most of them are on X.

Key West John: 9:30

Oh my.

Capn Tinsley: 9:32

So say hey to everybody. If you guys are on YouTube or I know I don't have X If you're on YouTube or Facebook, you can chat live. Unfortunately, x doesn't work that way, but it would be cool if we could see some questions. But I think I'm going to be good until July 16th.

Key West John: 9:57

Yeah, that looks pretty good for you. So you know, being a proper weather person, you can't say 100%.

Capn Tinsley: 10:05

Oh, yeah, yeah. Well, we'll have everybody sign a waiver before you know they leave the live stream. Exactly, yeah, so what are you going to do? What's your plan for when one does come towards Key West? Is it the same one as you had for? Was it Irma that you left for that one? Yes, you know, tie it, irma that you left for that one.

Key West John: 10:26

Yes, you know, tie it up and leave is your best bet. And you know, as I've told you, you know what I usually do, for obviously you're prepped. You want to take your canvas down because canvas will go flying. You know your Bimini top and then also your jib.

Capn Tinsley: 10:46

And then you and I both have furling mains.

Key West John: 10:47

So it's fairly easy. Yeah, we take the. I usually remove the, uh, the outhaul line, and then I can take the, the last little part of the sail that's exposed, wrap it around the mask and then either tape it or wrap a dock line around it to secure it, so you don't you don't want it to catch any kind of wind that it could, you know, take off and get going.

Capn Tinsley: 11:07

We have a question here. Florida Buckeyes says I was just in Key West. Does Key West John stay in place when a hurricane comes? And so, yeah, that's your. You were just answering that, I appreciate your question Florida Buckeyes.

Key West John: 11:21

Oh yeah, I usually I'll leave the boat here, but then, uh, if you know, if it's really bad, you know, you get off the boat obviously, and uh, you know you have it tied up, you leave it and you know. You know, take what comes and um but that's gotta be tough.

Capn Tinsley: 11:35

Yeah, that's gotta be tough yeah of course you know we've. Uh, he's got another question here. Florida Buckeyes says what's the criteria QS John uses to make the decision to stay or go, win rain or path, and he is living on his boat, so it is a little different for him where my boat is down the street and I live in a house. Yeah, yeah, what's your criteria, John?

Key West John: 12:02

Yeah, it's best not to try to stay on a boat when you get over 100 mile an hour winds. Yeah, it's best not to try to stay on a boat when you get over 100 mile an hour winds. It's you know, it's just you know. So I will, you know, tie it up really good and, you know, start driving or flying somewhere you know Orlando or something like that to get away from it. Because once you've tied it up, you've done all you can do. Then just let the boat hang on.

Key West John: 12:23

But I've tied it up, I think I've told you, during Irma, I put three dock lines on each point. So that's, uh, what's that? That's 12. And then, uh, you know, spring lines on each, on each side, and then, um, I take, uh, both of my anchor chains and take them out and tie them around, uh, the bow and, uh, pylons. So so you get, you get. You get it, you know, do it as secure as you can. And then, obviously, you know fenders. In case somebody breaks loose, you might help you fend off, but that's basically what you can do is just just tie it up, allow enough slack for any kind of surge that you're anticipating.

Capn Tinsley: 13:02

Yeah, and I think that was your biggest problem last time was somebody's dinghy broke loose on you and put a big hole.

Key West John: 13:08

Yeah, they did. They did a lot of scratches and I didn't notice it for the longest time. I was down in the water cleaning something and I said, oh, a lot of scratches here.

Capn Tinsley: 13:16

So they had left.

Key West John: 13:18

Here's one you should do If you come in anytime. You come into a big dinghy lot, don't leave your engine up. So he had his dinghy lot, don't leave your engine up. So he had his dinghy in the water with the engine up. So the prop just just had a heyday with it. Because, uh, you know, obviously another thing to you know, realize is don't use um sailing rigging. You know the. You know the rigging that you use for your sheets and your halyards and all that, that those lines do not stretch so they will break off. They're more prone to break a cleat loose or something like that. So you need dock lines that have the stretch because you need that shock absorbent. And he had a dinghy and he just tied it up with old sailing rigging and it broke his cleat off and then the engine came around and just was scraping on the boat.

Capn Tinsley: 14:06

Yeah, you actually did pretty good, because I was down there a couple months after Irma and there were boats everywhere and on the rocks up on Christmas Tree Island. In the marina they were sunk even Right. It's shocking that you did as well as you did.

Key West John: 14:24

Oh yeah, well, thanks, it worked out pretty good. But the big thing is that got you and it's hard to tell what's going to happen is right, you know the way this port is. We're on the north side of Key West, so if you get southerly winds, you know you're really protected. But Irma went to the east of us so it meant that we were now getting the northerly winds. So the stronger winds came from the north, which the stronger surge came, and that's why a lot of the boats in the marine they had tied up, thinking they were safe. If it had been a southerly wind they would have been okay, but they got pounded from the northerly winds and, like you say, christmas Tree Island out there, they really got pounded, washed into the rocks, as you well know.

Capn Tinsley: 15:07

And those boats were on anchor and some were on. I guess some of them were on mooring, I don't know yeah there are a lot of mooring out there that are really secure.

Key West John: 15:18

But, as you know, our friend Mark, he was on a mooring ball but the surge again, if it had been from the South it would have been okay, but the surge came from the North. It surged so high that that you uh that, that it just broke this, uh you know, up on the, uh the bow, you know broke the line there because it was just, you know, the surge came so high. So the mooring didn't come loose, it just the uh the surge got, you know, water lifts in a boat. It's not going to stop. How?

Capn Tinsley: 15:51

long did it take all those boats to get cleaned up? It was such a mess.

Key West John: 16:00

Oh, it was I think a year or so before they got it all cleaned up. And then you know, up the highway was really bad, you know, with all the debris.

Capn Tinsley: 16:05

Yeah, and here we had our last big one was sally in september 2020 and somebody I heard that there were 6 000 total boats between gulf shores orange beach and pensacola, and I don't know if that's a true number, but it seemed like it. And I mean the, um, the, what do you call them? The, the insurance adjusters. I mean, they wouldn't even come and look in, they were just oh okay, what do you have now?

Key West John: 16:31

okay, yeah yeah, yeah, I'm not down, yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't doubt the number six thousand there's.

Capn Tinsley: 16:40

You know, there's a lot, a lot of water and a lot of boats up there and so many people here were not prepared, because it was supposed to go to Louisiana, then it was supposed to go to. Mississippi, and then it was right on top of us, right on Orange Beach, and so a lot of people didn't have their storm shutters down, the boats didn't have triple lines, so many cars got flooded.

Capn Tinsley: 17:00

They were just in the wrong place. You know where people normally take them. They weren't there, it was just um, and even the city didn't call for an evacuation until it was too late. Everybody got fooled.

Key West John: 17:11

You know, I talked through the night on that, on that thing, and um, yeah, because I remember the text from you.

Capn Tinsley: 17:19

I was on the boat in case there's 81 people watching right now. My husband and I were on the boat because I thought we were just adjusting lines for storm surge and you stayed up all night. You're like, okay, it's going here. And then you're like it's coming right over you. I'll never forget that text from you.

Key West John: 17:34

You were drinking rum and qs radar and I, and I, and I, and because at first you know, I think earlier they had forecast you to have 45, 50 mile an hour winds, and then you know, at that time I thought which is still a lot when you're on a boat.

Key West John: 17:51

It's going to be more. I think it's going to be about 75 or 80. And then it made that turn and I kept watching and I said, well, you know, like I said, I told you, I said it's kind of hard, it's off the meter. You don't know really what your winds are getting to.

Capn Tinsley: 18:06

So you know I would, I have another question from Florida Buckeyes and I can answer part of this. One last question Is there a certain point that marinas make people leave or make them remove their boat, say for, on a mooring ball? Do you think I can speak for here? There are many marinas here that do make you leave and, um, you know, I'm on a sailboat. It's not like I pull my boat out of the water, so it is kind of a it's kind of stressful if you have a sailboat that's not trailerable and but, um, there are a couple, maybe one or two marinas here where there's they're kind of considered hurricane hole and they don't make you leave.

Capn Tinsley: 18:41

Yeah, what is your response to that?

Key West John: 18:44

oh, they, they uh. I don't know any of them in town that make you leave. Now, the ones with floating docks. A lot of times floating docks, the marines with floating docks, they will not allow you to stay on the floating dock, you think. Well, it kind of seems really good to be able to ride the surge, but the structure on that, if you can imagine, if you have, let's say, you got a 10 foot surge, now you're getting it way up on those pylons and then your, your weight of your boat puts a lot of stress, so on. But that's what.

Capn Tinsley: 19:16

That's where um I can speak to that too. We, barbara marina, which is on the intercoastal it's not even, you know, close to the gulf. Um, they were floating docks and when the next day they came in, all the boats and the docks were all in a pile.

Capn Tinsley: 19:33

Oh, boy yeah it was a disaster. It did for the longest time there was nothing. They had to just take every, all the boats out, all the float, the docks were all ruined and for the longest time they didn't have anything in there. And so it I just. I never imagined that happening, but it did.

Key West John: 19:48

Yeah, they have the floating docks. You know, safe Harbor has bought so many places and they're really keen on that. They will not allow boats to stay on the floating docks when a hurricane is approaching.

Capn Tinsley: 20:01

It's kind of tough, it's kind of tough. What do you do? You know, All these boats are just out there wandering around.

Key West John: 20:09

Yeah, you know they do something. I hope nobody from Marathon is listening, but Marathon's a unique place, kind of a different place. But they up in Marathon like the little boot key in the little harbor out there. They will take their boats and they go round. Not round, but they drive into the Run into the ground. Not run into the ground but into the islands. What do you call the islands with all the growth on them? They just pull up in there. Mangroves, mangroves. They pull into the mangroves and tie their up into the mangroves.

Capn Tinsley: 20:50

Yeah, and they and they, they have good success doing that yeah and there's places here, bayous, that you can go in, if you can put it in the middle and just tie it off on all the trees all around you um that that is, and I know they do that in the Keys too In some areas.

Key West John: 21:09

But it'd be scary. The bottom line is just dock lines, dock lines, dock lines, like you're in real estate and you'll see a location, location, location, getting a boat, dock lines, dock lines, dock lines. You know you can't have.

Capn Tinsley: 21:22

What I discovered is With my new boat, my slip is a little small for it to be jumping around in a storm, so it's best for me to move somewhere. It's very exposed and my marina does say because it's so exposed, they do ask us to leave.

Key West John: 21:39

Oh they do, oh yeah, yeah, because they mess everything up. Yeah, you know, one person breaks loose and then all hell breaks loose, so yeah, I got it. And all the dominoes have a problem.

Capn Tinsley: 21:55

Don't be that guy, right yeah.

Key West John: 21:58

Don't be, that guy Started it all.

Capn Tinsley: 22:01

We like your questions Florida Buckeyes. It just actually makes us talk about some useful stuff here. Yeah, that's been really good. And why is he a Buckeye? Your questions florida buckeyes. So it just actually makes us talk about some useful stuff here. Yeah, that's been really really good. And why is he a buckeye in florida? That's what I want to know. I guess he's a transplant. They are a lot of them here. Roll tide, roll tide.

Key West John: 22:21

They are a lot of buckeyes here, and I will not tell you what a person from ohio told me one time. But, uh, that's the reason that there are a lot of Buckeyes here. And I will not tell you what a person from Ohio told me one time. What did he say? The reason that there are a lot of them here? But there are a lot.

Capn Tinsley: 22:33

Why don't you tell me?

Key West John: 22:35

Well, okay, this is going to come from me. There's a lady who has a little boutique on Lazy Way Lane over here and anyway, I was talking to her one day and she'd been here 12 or 14 years and I said where did you come from? She said, oh, I'm originally from Ohio. And I said, gosh, why are there so many people from Ohio here? And she said have you ever been to Ohio? I said okay, many people from ohio here and she said have you?

Capn Tinsley: 23:08

ever been to ohio, I said okay, so sorry, but they're still cheering for their team, right? So, um, we have florida. Go ahead, feel free to ask a question. He was just in key west, so maybe he's thinking about locating there and living on a boat. Um, I personally think that, john, you should have just got in the boat and left as soon as you knew there was going to be a problem well it's.

Key West John: 23:29

It's just so hard when you start trying to move a boat, because you know, you know we don't go very fast, as you well know. So if you start trying to, you know, to say, well, do I go up the east coast or do I do the west coast? And if you start trying to say, well, do I go up the East Coast or do I do the West Coast, and if you make the wrong decision, then you end up out somewhere where you don't have a facility, like I have a perfect facility here. I got really really good pylons and just tie everything up. So you know, you pretty much just have to play the odds. Now, if you're in a powerboat yes, if you go 30 knots then you can make a choice Okay, I'm going to the East Coast, I'm going to the West Coast, and it finds you a good, safe place. But for us it's hard for us to run from something like that.

Capn Tinsley: 24:11

You just have to make sure you have really good insurance, and that's what I learned in the last storm Update your insurance.

Key West John: 24:23

Every time you add stuff I think you've done. You've done really well. A good point to make is that you've done really good to get a survey done, a current survey, so that if you did lose a boat you have a current survey with a with a good valuation on it.

Capn Tinsley: 24:34

That's something a lot survey when I bought it, and then I put a bunch of money into it and a few months later I got an addendum to the survey. And then like a year or so later I had done a bunch of more work and I got it approved from GEICO a special exception to get a second addendum to the survey. And I was able to raise my insurance both times.

Key West John: 24:56

And I learned that lesson.

Key West John: 24:58

That's really good to do. I've talked to several people and they did not have an agreed upon or any figures to back up the value and most of the insurance companies are going to really cut you pretty low on that. So I think doing that that's a really good point to make is to have a good recent survey, current survey with a good current valuation, and make sure that the insurance company has a copy of it, you know, so that they that you can. Mark was telling me. He said you need to talk with them and get an agreed upon value before bad things happen.

Capn Tinsley: 25:30

Yeah, and also to remember, there's a temper, at least for mine, there's a 10% hurricane deductible.

Key West John: 25:36

Oh boy.

Capn Tinsley: 25:37

So if you get it for 119, you can go ahead and knock off 10%, which is a rip-off, but that's the way it is for a hurricane.

Key West John: 25:43

Yeah, yeah, they had a lot of losses with Sally, and then with Irma, and then with Ian, you know, with Fort Miser. So I know that is tough on them, you know, because there are more and more boats and the boats are more expensive and it's a pretty good hit for them when they have a hurricane like that coming.

Capn Tinsley: 26:02

Don't you think they make a profit?

Key West John: 26:05

Oh yeah, they always make a profit In the long run, In the long run.

Capn Tinsley: 26:11

So let's go. Can we go back to Beryl? So do you think Grand Cayman is going to feel any effects here?

Key West John: 26:19

I'm surprised they're not already. You were showing me those live signs that might be their chamber of commerce, just putting that out, trying to tell the tourists to calm down. I was really surprised that the palms are not swaying there.

Capn Tinsley: 26:35

Isn't this Grand Cayman right here? Is this Grand Cayman right here? This is Jamaica.

Key West John: 26:41

It's pretty much, and that's Grand Cayman, there's Jamaica and then just about due south of Cuba. The central part of Cuba would be the the the Cayman Islands.

Capn Tinsley: 26:48

Right here, so it's right here. So it hadn't gotten there yet.

Key West John: 26:53

Okay, all right.

Capn Tinsley: 27:05

Well, yeah, so it's not a cloud in the sky, so it's a little hard to see the let me do the proper eyewear here. Here's Grand Cayman, right here it's all calm. Yeah, yeah, I'm surprised Calm before the storm. I've been to Grand Cayman. Look how calm that is. I know that's really funny.

Key West John: 27:19

I think they'll get it. This is a pretty tight little storm so you know it's not like Ian was so widespread. I stayed in for Ian. Ian went out. Pretty much the center was out around the Dr Tortuga's. Once again, I was tracking the eye on radar and also we were in Whoa. You got the eye on radar and also we were in the big horn. They just installed their big horn on their boat.

Capn Tinsley: 27:45

But anyway, I was there for Ian on my boat, remember, and I had triple lines everywhere, I had them crossing and everything.

Key West John: 27:53

Was that Ian? Okay, yeah.

Capn Tinsley: 27:58

That was the one that was. After that that went up more towards north Florida. Ian is the one that went into Fort Myers and all that.

Key West John: 28:06

Yeah, ian hit Fort Myers but that was such a big storm that you know they took Irma and planted it inside the eye of Ian. But Ian was, I was 140 miles from the eye of Ian and still having 50 mile an hour winds and that's just insane, you know to be that tall, and that's a lot when you're on a boat. Yeah, 50, you know. So I was glad I stayed in a marathon because Key West was having around 75 and 80 mile an hour winds.

Capn Tinsley: 28:34

Oh my gosh.

Key West John: 28:35

Oh gosh, I was glad I stayed, you know, kept a little more distance.

Capn Tinsley: 28:38

Well, whichever one that was last year that went kind of just grazed Key West. I went and got a hotel room because I was just I was getting like kind of bleh. Oh yeah, what was that one? Yeah.

Key West John: 28:53

Boats are not fun to ride the storm anyway.

Capn Tinsley: 28:58

Plus, it's just a little slightly dangerous. I went to the marker inn and I was cozy as could be oh yeah, that's a room with a view and watch your boat. So, yeah, yeah, that's so the alabama gulf coast and it looks like the whole florida gulf coast is looking good right now and the florida keys are looking good and um te Texas, the very bottom tip of Texas, looks like they may get something, aren't they kind of in the middle of the Looks?

Key West John: 29:26

like they'll get soaked. They'll get a lot of.

Capn Tinsley: 29:29

Something's going to happen there, but hopefully it'll be a hurricane.

Key West John: 29:35

No, it will reach hurricane strength a little bit before making landfall there, but I don't think it'll be too bad. It's going to be very windy and rainy it looks like there if I had to guess on it. But the big thing to emphasize on this is we're early in the season they're talking about. This is the strongest one this early in the season ever. It's.

Capn Tinsley: 29:59

July 3rd and we're already on barrel. Yeah, yeah, and it was a five.

Key West John: 30:04

Last year we had two start out of the Caribbean and they thought, okay, this is you know. They were indicating a bad year and it turned out not being a bad year, so well, let me take that Land did not encounter a bad year. We had two or three that went up the Atlantic. They all had that pattern going up the Atlantic. I forgot what their names were, but they were oh they went out to sea.

Key West John: 30:28

Yeah, one of them was 175, 80 miles an hour, but it was out in the middle of the Atlantic, thank God. So, yeah, I mean, if that thing had stayed a little more to the west, if the steering currents hadn't gotten it, it would have been bad for the bahamas and, uh, east coast of florida. So so it was a bad it did have bad storms, it's just they did not hit landfall.

Capn Tinsley: 30:49

Okay, well we'll come back on when the next storm? Uh, when we? I like talking hurricanes with you.

Key West John: 30:54

You're a smart fella oh, I don't know the reason.

Capn Tinsley: 30:58

He's a smart fella for you. There's 88. There's 87 people listening. By the way, don't you like it when 87 people listen to what you have to say? That is good the reason he's a smart is you're a lifetime sailor and then you flew for southwest. What was it? 25 years?

Key West John: 31:15

yeah, almost 30 yes almost 30 years.

Capn Tinsley: 31:18

So you were a captain, a pilot, and you tinker with 737s in retirement.

Key West John: 31:25

Right.

Capn Tinsley: 31:26

And you, just you know weather. I mean, the dude knows weather.

Key West John: 31:31

Well, I have a lot to learn, but I do. I have followed it for a long time and I do like to. I like it one for our knowledge. But then it's interesting to me. I start tracking these things as soon as they come off Africa, which most I'm doing, and every now and then we get them starting down in the Caribbean and I like to kind of keep a track on and see what develops and kind of see the pattern and and tell me this I've taken all the classes but it just doesn't stick.

Capn Tinsley: 31:57

You know, I've taken all the sailing classes in the captain's school, but the weather part is a little bit of a mystery. That's why I have Key West on. Why is it staying south? Is it a trough?

Key West John: 32:07

Oh, there's all kind of all the steering currents. You know you can have high pressure here or low pressure there. You know the different and the different upper level winds. You know the upper level winds. Uh, you know the upper level winds they're talking about. You know rough around 35, 40 000 feet and you know they might be. Uh, you know, let's see, I'm about to lose a battery here. They might be running that. Uh, you know, upper level winds sometimes can be 150 200 miles an hour. So depending on how those strong upper level winds are, uh can depend on how the the storms, how the steering currents work and move the storms. But I mean, it's almost like magic the way they have so much information and they can predict seven and ten days out and know that the storm's going to come here, here, here here, and then make a turn Like okay, and it sticks with that. It's pretty amazing how good.

Capn Tinsley: 32:54

Did you say that the European model is more reliable?

Key West John: 32:57

Well, most people like the euro model. They, um, uh, they're, they're you. You see, all those little they call it spaghetti models, all the little lines of the spaghetti, and each one of them has a different name and it's defined, it's.

Key West John: 33:11

I've forgotten how it's offered by a different organization right yeah, different organizations, different, sometimes they're individuals, but everything you know they come up with all that and it's they pretty much are in agreement and you'll get those. Uh, just so you know the progression. You know you get the little blip coming off and it has that little cone, the little uh orange or yellow orange or red cone, depending on the uh probably, and and then after, then along, and then they will start doing those spaghetti models that will show where the projected track of this is, and then it's not until the storm becomes a tropical depression and gets a tropical storm and gets a name. Then the National Hurricane Center starts using that little white, the thing we're most familiar with, the white cone.

Capn Tinsley: 33:57

A tropical storm gets a name right.

Key West John: 34:00

Yeah, and then, and then you know, originally they'll name it. They might say you know, tropical Depression number three, and then you know, maybe it's like yeah, and then maybe a day later they'll have a name on it. But then once it gets a name, then the National Hurricane Center every three hours issues that cone and and that you know, yeah, they take the spaghetti models and then the National Hurricane Center comes up with their and that's pretty much the official report.

Key West John: 34:31

And then I like to watch and this is what you can monitor trends Every three hours when that white cone comes out from the National Hurricane Center, see how the plot is, and then I take a picture of it and then when the next one comes out, I see is it trending to the north? Is it trending to the south? What's it? You know what's the? Is it picking up speed? So, oh, and one thing I was mentioning earlier about speed is that when storms are, they're moving fast and they go across land, they don't dissipate as much. So it's, you know, and this one has been moving at about uh, 18 to 22 miles per hour, so that's pretty, pretty fast for a hurricane. So it it could come across the yucatan without losing as much as if it were coming along. It's at five and six, seven miles an hour. Okay, a little bit of.

Key West John: 35:24

Well, that's what got, that's what got Charlie years ago, 2004. And uh, you know it was coming across and uh, and I never will forget, I was not in Orlando at the time, I was gone for a while, but my son was first year there in Orlando and then he said what about this hurricane's coming? I said I said once it gets that far inland it won't be that bad. Well then about the next morning? He called me. He said it's 105 mile an hour wind. And it was it. Charlie moved so fast uh, I forgot what it was, maybe a 20 mile an hour moving storm that it didn't lose its speed as quickly as if it had been a slower moving storm coming across land and what about andrew?

Capn Tinsley: 36:05

he came across the south tip of florida and went over and got louisiana.

Key West John: 36:10

Oh yeah, yeah yeah, my mom, you know, you know I, you know you and I talk and I always say you know, don't let your guard down until it's north of you, and but sometimes ivan came back down.

Capn Tinsley: 36:22

remember ivan in 2004 it went out, went up and came back down and formulated into something else yeah, but you're going to leave us alone.

Key West John: 36:30

You'll just keep going. Oh yeah, just keep it on. And really, mike's weather page has a compilation of a lot of good information, all those charts you can bring up that we've been talking about, the models, the cones and all that, and that's a good place to get your information, because you'll get the spaghetti models. Oh, and then the. I think I sent you that thing.

Capn Tinsley: 36:56

Yeah, I've got all the ones you sent me. We use Passage Weather all the time.

Key West John: 37:01

The intensity forecast. They'll take the intensity forecast out seven days and it'll go up. The little lines are going Passage weather, all the different colors. It'll have a little different colors on it and it'll go out, like you might say, 96 hours. It's going to be a cat tooth, but there again you have all the different models.

Capn Tinsley: 37:22

Which one are you talking about? Which webpage are you talking about right now? Which one?

Key West John: 37:26

Let's see, it would be called the intensity level or intensity forecast, and it'll be a page with different colors. It'll be, you know, yellow, green, blue. I mean blue, green, yellow, red.

Capn Tinsley: 37:43

Oh, I see it, it's this one Okay.

Key West John: 37:46

Yeah, it'll have the little graph. That's good to see because then that way you know, you know what. You know what's the future is going to be, you know how this thing you know is going to be. And that's what I saw early on a burl. I said, god, this thing's going to be a cat four. You know pretty quickly. And, uh, you know, so that's, that's a little helpful pay there again. You've got several different lines with several different opinions and you can maybe take the middle of the road or, if you have confidence in a certain person's forecast Plan for the worst, a lot of times somebody will have a really really bad one, somebody will have a really really tame one. It's kind of take the mean, I guess. Try to figure out what's the average and something like that.

Key West John: 38:32

But yeah, that's a little chart to do. But there again, Mike's Weather Page has all that information, tons of stuff, plus tons of ads.

Capn Tinsley: 38:39

if you want to look at all kinds of ads about everything, Well, the thing that I find helpful again I'm bragging on you is when I'm making a golf crossing. Find it helpful I just again I'm bragging on you is when I'm making a gulf crossing and you know. But but, by the way, I've been interviewing all these sailors and people tell me I hate the gulf, I, I'd much rather cross the atlantic.

Capn Tinsley: 38:57

And because oh yeah, it could get rough it's, it's kind of unpredictable and, uh, sometimes I've been out there and like oh, oh, yeah you have pretty rough weather out in the Gulf yeah yeah, especially in the winter.

Key West John: 39:13

Yeah, you would think that it senses fairly much an enclosed body of water, that it would be fairly calm, fairly sublime. But the rough gets rough and I'm like you. You hear a lot of people say, oh, the rough I mean the Gulf kicked my butt.

Capn Tinsley: 39:29

I'd rather cross the you. You hear a lot of people say, oh the rough.

Key West John: 39:31

I mean the gulf kicked my butt, I'd rather cross the Atlantic. I hear that, yeah, I don't know about that. I don't know if I'd trade that.

Capn Tinsley: 39:35

That's a long way across, yeah.

Key West John: 39:38

Yeah, I talked to one and he was in a 30, I think a 32-foot boat and he worked for I think you might know the guy up in Marathon in Keys Riggins up in Marathon, oh yeah.

Capn Tinsley: 39:53

Yeah.

Key West John: 39:54

He's the owner, yeah. And then Chris, the guy that worked for him, he crossed, went over the Atlantic and back in his 32-foot boat and I said, oh God, man, how'd you do it? He said, well, you just wake up one day and figure out that you're crazy, and then you just head out, Okay.

Capn Tinsley: 40:10

Well, I would need your prediction, the QS John prediction, that it's going to be calm. The best you can give me, John, I would just I mean, I live with whatever there is.

Key West John: 40:24

Yeah, we have a lot with the communications that are available now. Yeah, wanted to, with uh staying. And then with the communications that are available now and I'll have to admit, it's always nice when I'm, you know, sitting on the boat or in a nice comfortable chair and I'm looking at it and and then, um, via satellite, getting the information to you out in the gulf I say well, okay, the other five to seven should be over soon I know I'm like what soon?

Capn Tinsley: 40:54

I know I'm like what? Yeah, over soon, you mean anybody you really you're talking about tomorrow or something. Yeah, yeah, tomorrow I don't want it to be over with. I want it to be done now oh, that was great.

Key West John: 41:01

When you that other, that passage, weather that gives you, you know you got not only wind. You got uh waves and pressure uh, but the way deal. The funny thing mark uh that with long story short, when he was bringing his boat from the uh he's the one that told me about passage weather yeah, yeah, he's, he has some great information.

Key West John: 41:21

He was, he was coming up and I was giving him reports, just like I do along the way, because he was going, but you know, just a little north of cuba, bringing the boat all the way. He was having a motor because the boat had been damaged in the whichever hurricane it was down there. He lost his mask, but the whole way forth there here's.

Key West John: 41:37

So, yeah, so he's driving, he's driving along and, uh, I keep giving him waves. I said, all right, mark, yeah, it looks like you're going to have one to twos for the next Eight hours or whatever. Finally he says, john, I think those are in meters. And I looked and then finally I looked at the chart and I said, oh hell, those are in meters. I said, okay, let's change that to three to six. Yep, you have to read it and you also have to.

Capn Tinsley: 42:04

It's you? What is it UTC time? Okay, so here's Friday, three o'clock UTC time. Okay, so here's Friday, 3 o'clock UTC time. And this is a great site passageweathercom.

Key West John: 42:15

Yeah, I highly recommend it. It's good they're going to ask for money all the time. I've given them money one time, but you know, just you know whatever, don't lay money to them. Because it really is good. I mean, it's a great, great, great winds forecast and very accurate, you know they.

Capn Tinsley: 42:33

It really works out good well, look, this didn't look too bad right here. This is wednesday, july 11th.

Key West John: 42:39

Yeah, I think I said well, you can, you know, and it'll track that you can see the eyes that you know, they'll show you the eyes of the storms and all that pretty good and uh this doesn't look like it's going to get.

Capn Tinsley: 42:49

It's going to really dissipate after it crosses over the Yucatan. According to passage weather.

Key West John: 42:54

Yeah, and that they're usually pretty accurate. So I think that's what I think this one will be able to relax.

Capn Tinsley: 43:01

Um.

Key West John: 43:02

I definitely can pretty much right now, but uh, yeah, and you, you still have some a little bit of risk, but I think you're going to be okay. Well, stay tuned for the next one coming. Yes.

Capn Tinsley: 43:13

Yes, thank you for Key West John, for coming on and give us in your wisdom, and this was fun and we'll have to do it again, okay, Good deal.

Key West John: 43:21

Well, thanks a lot for and everyone. Have a happy time. If you ever come down, I'm on the E-Dock right in front of the Waterfront Brewery, come on by. At Key West Bite Marina Right, come on by anytime.

Capn Tinsley: 43:35

And how do we go out? We say Salty Abandon. Say it, john, salty Abandon, salty Abandon.