GIKN Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap Up 2024 06 28
Hello and welcome to this week's episode of the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up for the week ending June 28st, 2024. I'm Neil Bisson, a retired intelligence officer with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, and the Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network and your host for the Global Intelligence Wrap up.
Every week, I dive deep into the latest headlines, providing insights into national security, foreign interference, espionage, and terrorism and all things spy related.
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MUSIC
In this first story we start by diving into a highly pertinent topic: the caution urged by RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme on naming alleged foreign state colluders within the Canadian Parliament. This discussion stems from a recent article titled "RCMP Commissioner Urges ‘Caution’ on Naming Alleged Foreign State Colluders".
The head of Canada's national police force has entered a deepening political debate about whether to name parliamentarians who are allegedly assisting foreign governments.
Opposition MPs have been pushing for transparency on this matter.
However, RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme has urged caution, warning that revealing these identities could have unintended consequences.
Duheme's concern is primarily about the reliability of single source reporting.
He pointed out that sometimes information comes from a single source, which may not always be reliable.
This is significant from an intelligence perspective because the release of unverified names could jeopardize lives and ongoing investigations.
Earlier this month, the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians or (NSICOP) released a report alleging that federal politicians are “wittingly” or “semi-wittingly” colluding with foreign states.
NDP MP Jenny Kwan is among those calling for the identities to be revealed, arguing that keeping them secret damages the reputation of all members of the House of Commons and erodes public trust in elected officials.
This issue is not just about naming names.
It taps into broader concerns about foreign interference and the integrity of national institutions.
The debate highlights the delicate balance between transparency and security.
Comparing this to similar events, such as past allegations of foreign interference in elections, we see a consistent theme: the challenge of addressing potential threats without compromising intelligence methods or international partnerships.
In the article, Duheme emphasized the risk of compromising investigations and the importance of protecting the tradecraft involved in intelligence work.
He also mentioned the impact on international partners supplying some of that information.
From my professional experience, I can attest to the critical need for careful handling of sensitive information to maintain both national and international security.
Furthermore, the Liberal government cites the official secrets act as a reason for not naming individuals, arguing that doing so would break the law.
This perspective underscores the legal and ethical complexities in dealing with such sensitive information.
However, it also provides a scape-clause for any MP, National Security or Intelligence Officer who reads the unredacted documents.
To summarize, while the call for transparency is understandable, the potential risks of naming parliamentarians based on single source reporting cannot be ignored.
This does not excuse the government from taking needed action to investigate, arrest and prosecute individuals who are proven to have engaged or are engaging in foreign interference.
Let’s be honest here, this is straight up treason, and a message needs to be sent to both the MPs engaging in this activity and the foreign state nations benefiting from their treasonous actions.
It is essential to balance the public's right to know with the imperative to protect national security and the integrity of ongoing investigations.
Looking ahead, with Bill C-70 now being passed, we will have more tools to counter foreign interference by creating a foreign agent registry and expanding intelligence-gathering powers, marking a significant step forward.
MUSIC
In our next story we focus on a significant cybersecurity report revealing intensified attacks on Taiwanese organizations by a suspected China-backed hacking group, RedJuliett.
According to a US-based cybersecurity firm, this group compromised two dozen organizations between November 2023 and April 2024, likely in support of Beijing’s intelligence-gathering activities on Taiwan.
RedJuliett exploited vulnerabilities in internet-facing appliances such as firewalls and VPNs, targeting tech firms, government agencies, and universities.
They conducted network reconnaissance and attempted exploitation against more than 70 Taiwanese organizations, including de facto embassies, technology industries, and critical technology fields.
This escalation in cyber-attacks highlights the persistent and growing threat of cyber-espionage, particularly from state-sponsored groups.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has a vested interest in its diplomatic relations and technological advancements.
This situation is reminiscent of previous instances where cyber-espionage has been employed to gain strategic advantages.
Recorded Future, the cybersecurity firm, expects Chinese state-sponsored hackers to continue targeting Taiwan for intelligence-gathering.
They anticipate a continued focus on conducting reconnaissance and exploiting public-facing devices, a tactic that has proved successful against a wide range of global targets.
Yet again, this underscores the need for robust cybersecurity measures and international cooperation to counter such threats. Any successes by groups like RedJulliet simply emboldens the Chinese Government to use these same tactics against other targets in the west.
To sum up, the report on RedJuliett’s intensified cyber-attacks against Taiwanese organizations underscores the ongoing and evolving nature of cyber-espionage.
It is crucial for nations to stay vigilant and invest in cybersecurity to protect their critical infrastructure and national security interests.
As this situation develops, I'll keep a close eye on the implications and potential responses from Taiwan, Canada and our allies.
MUSIC
Our next story brings us to a complex and politically charged topic: “Sikh assassinations: Are the US and Canada raising the heat on India?”
A year after the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, ongoing court cases in Canada and the US are focusing on alleged Indian overseas murder plots, testing New Delhi’s ties with both Ottawa and Washington.
This news article explores the significant developments in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a proponent of the Khalistan movement, who was killed outside a community shrine near Vancouver. This incident has led to diplomatic and legal measures in Canada and the US, putting India under intense scrutiny.
In Canada, a hearing on June 25 provided prosecutors another opportunity to present evidence linking India to Nijjar’s murder.
Meanwhile, in the US, the extradition of Nikhil Gupta from the Czech Republic has highlighted another plot against a Sikh separatist leader, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.
From an intelligence perspective, these developments are not just isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern of alleged state-sponsored extraterritorial execution operations by India to suppress separatist movements.
The significance lies in the impact these operations have on international relations, particularly with Western countries that house significant Sikh diasporas.
Nijjar’s assassination and the subsequent court cases must be viewed in the context of the long-standing Khalistan movement, which seeks to establish a separate Sikh state in India's Punjab region.
This movement, though diminished in India, has seen a resurgence among the diaspora.
Relations between India and Canada have been strained since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suggested Indian government involvement in Nijjar’s murder.
This accusation led to a diplomatic standoff, including the withdrawal of Indian diplomats and the suspension of visa services for Canadians.
Similarly, in the US, the case against Nikhil Gupta underscores the global dimension of these operations.
Gupta was accused of conspiring to assassinate Pannun, another Sikh separatist leader, under the direction of a Research and Analysis Wing or (RAW) intelligence officer identified as Vikram Yadav.
Experts have noted that such extraterritorial operations are indicative of a broader strategy by states to counter perceived threats beyond their borders.
These actions are part of a sophisticated strategy to manage internal dissent and external influence.
The implications for national security are profound, as they challenge both Canadian and American sovereignty and our ability to protect residents and citizens from deadly foreign state actions.
To summarize, the cases involving the assassinations of Sikh separatist leaders like Nijjar and the plots against Pannun reveal a complex web of international intrigue and state-sponsored assassinations.
These actions have significant implications for diplomatic relations and international law enforcement collaboration.
Looking ahead, we can expect these cases to continue to shape the geopolitical landscape, especially in terms of how countries address the presence and activities of foreign state actors within their borders.
MUSIC
In the next story we’re examining the tragic and alarming series of terrorist attacks in Russia’s Dagestan region from the article entitled "‘Terror attack’ on synagogue, churches in Russia’s Dagestan: What we know" by Al Jazeera. This article highlights the recent violence that resulted in the deaths of policemen and civilians, marking a significant escalation in regional security concerns.
The article delves into the coordinated attacks that took place in Dagestan on Sunday. Armed men attacked a synagogue, an Orthodox church, and a police post, resulting in the deaths of at least 19 people, including 15 police officers and four civilians.
From an intelligence perspective, these attacks are significant for several reasons.
First, they represent a direct challenge to Russian state authority in a region already fraught with historical and ethnic tensions.
The choice of targets – religious institutions and law enforcement – suggests a calculated effort to incite fear and division within the community.
Dagestan is in the North Caucasus region along the Caspian Sea and has a predominantly Muslim population.
It is home to over 50 ethnicities, earning it the nickname “the Mountain of Languages.”
The region’s historical context is crucial to understanding the current security situation.
Dagestan borders Chechnya, another North Caucasian republic with a history of separatist conflict, which has occasionally spilled over into Dagestan.
The attacks in Dagestan are reminiscent of the wider pattern of violence in the North Caucasus, often linked to separatist and extremist groups.
The recent history of terrorist activity, including the large-scale attack on a concert in Moscow claimed by ISLAMIC STATE KORASAN PROVINCE or ISIS-K, further underscores the persistent threat of terrorism in Russia.
Al Jazeera’s coverage includes insights from Domitilla Sagramoso, a lecturer in Security and Development at King’s College London.
She suggests a probable connection between the attackers and ISIS, given the nature of the targets: Orthodox churches and synagogues.
From my professional analysis, the coordinated nature of these attacks and the selection of high-profile targets align with tactics commonly employed by ISIS and similar extremist groups.
This connection, if confirmed, would indicate a troubling expansion of ISIS activities within Russia, particularly in the North Caucasus region.
To summarize, the attacks in Dagestan represent a significant escalation in regional violence and underscore the ongoing threat of terrorism in the North Caucasus.
The implications for national security are profound, particularly in terms of maintaining regional stability and preventing further extremist violence.
Looking forward, it is crucial for Russian authorities to address both the immediate security threats and the underlying socio-political issues that contribute to such acts of violence.
Enhanced counterterrorism measures and community engagement will be vital in preventing future attacks and maintaining stability.
MUSIC
In this next story we shift gears to what India believes is a threat that hasn’t stopped and is growing in Canada.
In this next news story we examine a poignant and politically charged issue highlighted in the article "No government should overlook the threat of terrorism emanating from its territories for political gains: Indian envoy to Canada".
This article discusses India’s call to action against terrorism on the 39th anniversary of the 1985 Air India bombing, an event that claimed 329 lives, most of whom were Canadians of Indian descent.
I’ll analyze the Indian envoy’s strong statement emphasizing that no government should ignore terrorism emanating from its territories for political gains.
This statement comes amid rising tensions between Canada and India over issues related to terrorism and the glorification of militancy.
The Kanishka bombing of 1985, where Air India Flight 182 was destroyed by a bomb mid-flight, serves as a grim reminder of the catastrophic impact of terrorism.
The bombing, attributed to Sikh militants resulted in the loss of 329 lives, marking it as the worst aviation disaster in Canadian history.
The Indian High Commission in Canada commemorated the 39th anniversary of this tragic event, underscoring the need for global cooperation against terrorism.
High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma’s remarks stressed that human lives should never be compromised for political gains.
He called for robust legal and social actions to combat terrorism, urging governments, security agencies, and international organizations to work together to dismantle terrorist networks and counter their ideologies.
This strong stance by India comes at a time of strained relations with Canada, particularly after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegations regarding the involvement of Indian agents in the killing of Nijjar.
India has rejected these claims as baseless and motivated, highlighting ongoing diplomatic tensions.
From an intelligence perspective, the statement by the Indian envoy reflects a broader concern about the politicization of terrorism.
Allowing terrorism to fester for political gains undermines international security efforts and sets a dangerous precedent.
The emphasis on collective action to counter terrorism aligns with global counter-terrorism strategies, which advocate for international cooperation and stringent measures to disrupt terrorist activities.
However, the actions of Sikh terrorists almost 40 years ago, does not justify the extrajudicial execution operations against Canadian Citizens like Nijjar.
India’s objection to the Canadian Parliament’s recent observance of a moment of silence for Nijjar, as well as the protest actions outside the Indian consulate in Vancouver, further exemplifies the friction between the two countries over the handling of terrorism-related issues.
The commemoration of the Kanishka bombing serves as a reminder of the devastating consequences of terrorism and the ongoing need for international vigilance and cooperation.
India’s concerns in relation to ongoing terrorist activity in Canada needs to be reinforced with solid information that can be used by Canadian Law Enforcement and Intelligence agencies to investigate.
However, situations like the assassination of Nijjar only change the focus of India’s concern over Sikh extremism to issues of foreign interference and criminal activity by individuals solicited to take action by the Indian Government.
MUSIC
We now focus our attention on a story that has dominated the news this week by starting with the article entitled “WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange set to be freed after U.S. plea deal” from Global News.
Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, is plead guilty to violating U.S. espionage law.
This plea deal concludes a 14-year-long legal battle and allowed Assange to return to his home country, Australia.
Assange agreed to plead guilty to conspiring to obtain and disclose classified U.S. national defense documents.
This development marks the end of an era that saw Assange spend over five years in a British high-security jail and seven years in the Ecuadorian embassy in London.
From an intelligence perspective, this case has been a focal point in the discourse on the balance between national security and freedom of the press.
The U.S. government has viewed Assange as a threat, accusing him of endangering lives through the mass release of classified documents.
On the other hand, many see Assange as a hero for transparency and exposing government misconduct.
WikiLeaks came to prominence in 2010 after releasing hundreds of thousands of classified U.S. military documents related to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
One of the most notorious releases was a 2007 video showing a U.S. Apache helicopter attacking and killing suspected insurgents in Iraq, including two Reuters journalists.
This incident highlighted the complex and often controversial nature of intelligence operations and the dissemination of classified information.
Assange’s legal troubles began in 2010 when he was arrested in Britain on a European arrest warrant over sex-crime allegations in Sweden, which were later dropped.
To avoid extradition to Sweden, he sought asylum in the Ecuadorian embassy in London, where he remained until 2019.
His time there was marked by ongoing legal battles and significant public interest.
Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has criticized the plea deal, stating that Assange’s actions endangered lives and that he should have been prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
This perspective underscores the ongoing debate about the consequences of leaking classified information.
In contrast, press freedom advocates argue that Assange’s prosecution sets a dangerous precedent for journalists and whistleblowers.
Alan Rusbridger, a former editor of The Guardian, expressed concern over the use of espionage laws against those who reveal uncomfortable truths.
Stella Assange, Julian’s wife, has voiced her worry about the guilty plea under the Espionage Act and its implications for journalists.
From my perspective, Assange’s decision to release national security and military documents and videos without fully appreciating the consequences of their release shows a lack of responsible journalism. He equated national security issues to less than that of celebrity gossip photos and simply wanted attention for his actions.
However, recent national security leaks to the media in Canada have demonstrated issues like Foreign Interference are needed to be published to garner the necessary attention of citizens and MPs.
In summary, Julian Assange’s plea deal and impending release mark a significant moment in the intersection of national security and press freedom.
This case has highlighted the challenges and ethical dilemmas inherent in handling classified information and the role of journalists and whistleblowers. As we move forward, it’s essential to stay informed and vigilant about the evolving landscape of global intelligence and its impact on our freedoms.
MUSIC
In the next section we’re examining a critical development in the Indo-Pacific region that has significant implications for global security.
Our main topic is an article titled “Should Russia’s outreach in Indo-Pacific be a ‘wake-up call’ for Canada?” from Global News.
Russia’s recent efforts to strengthen ties with allies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly North Korea and Vietnam, should indeed serve as a wake-up call for Canada and other Western nations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent tour of North Korea and Vietnam, which included signing multiple agreements and a mutual defense pact with North Korea, highlights a strategic shift that could alter the balance of power in the region.
From an intelligence perspective, these developments underscore Russia’s intent to assert its influence beyond Europe and into the Indo-Pacific.
This move is particularly significant as it challenges the notion that China is the sole great power threat in the region.
The United States has already expressed concern over this outreach, emphasizing the need to strengthen alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
Russia’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific is not a recent development.
Since at least 2014, Putin has sought to expand Russia’s economic and military footprint in Asia as a countermeasure to Western sanctions and geopolitical pressures.
Russia’s military presence in the region, collaboration with China, and engagement in the Arctic are all part of a broader strategy to extend its influence.
This outreach has significant implications for Canada, which has been focusing on its Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s growing influence.
The recent agreements between Russia and North Korea, as well as Russia’s deepening ties with Vietnam, present new challenges that Canada must address in its strategic planning.
Balkan Devlen, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, warns that Canada must recognize the threat posed by Russia in the Indo-Pacific.
He suggests learning from Japanese and South Korean allies about the connectivity and the threat that Russia poses.
Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that Canada has a stake in the region, particularly through its military role in monitoring UN sanctions on North Korea.
Jeff Reeves, a senior Washington fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, points out that Russia’s outreach in Asia has been ongoing for the past 15 years.
This long-term strategy should not come as a surprise, but rather as a call to revisit and possibly revise existing assumptions and strategies.
In summary, Russia’s increasing engagement in the Indo-Pacific region signals a need for Canada and its allies to reassess their strategies and recognize the multifaceted nature of threats in the region.
As the global power dynamics continue to evolve, it is crucial for Canada to stay vigilant and adaptive in its approach to maintaining regional stability and security.
From an intelligence perspective, this means that newly formed or more intense ties between Russia and Indo-Pacific countries means that a sharing of intelligence on the US, Canada and our allies will become a priority for these current and possibly future enemy foreign states.
Intelligence collaboration between Russia, North Korea, Vietnam and other countries in that region equates to a force multiplier for any espionage, sabotage, foreign interference or other national security threats against North American, European, and Australian allies.
A comprehensive and strategic counter measure discussion needs to take place among all the 5 eye countries on how to approach a potentially new threat from newly minted Russian allies.
OUTTRO
That's it for this week's episode of Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up. Before we go, I’d like to wish all of our Canadian listeners a Happy Canada Day weekend. As well for those listeners in the United States, Happy 4th of July.
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