EVs: The Long View on Today's Challenges

Amidst the clamor of critics ready to toll the bell on electric vehicles, we're here to shine a light on the untold story of resilience and innovation that's charging ahead. This episode isn't just a rundown of EVs' current tussles with sales and infrastructure—it's a deep dive into the unyielding spirit of a sector that's rapidly outpacing its gas-guzzling ancestors. You'll ride shotgun with us as we explore the technological leaps in battery life and vehicle efficiency that are setting the stage for a future where electric reigns supreme. Together with industry experts, we dissect the forces at play in a market undergoing a seismic shift, and why the rumble of an EV motor may soon be the heartbeat of roads worldwide.

Shift gears and buckle up as we unpack the electrifying rise of China in the global EV arena—a storyline that could very well dictate the future of transportation. The stakes? Innovation, jobs, and industry leadership. This episode lays bare the contrast between China's full-throttle EV embrace and the West's more reserved gear-shifting, a move that could see American automakers playing catch up in the race to electric dominance. The conversation with our esteemed guests, automotive analysts and policy advisors, navigates through the complexities of national strategies and the high voltage of international competition. Listen closely as we chart a course through the challenges and triumphs that could either stall or supercharge the global pursuit of electric vehicles.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:01

In recent months, the headlines in the West at least, would have you think electric vehicles are dead. Tesla's had massive layoffs after slumping sales. Ford is losing $100,000 on every new car it sells and is apparently cutting back on commitments for battery purchases. Gm is stumbling, while Rivian's also in a bad way. So there are plenty of EV opponents crowing on LinkedIn and elsewhere, celebrating these troubles and claiming that EVs are inferior products foisted on the West by inept governments before their time. Some of that is true. Our vehicles are not as good as they could be. They are currently too expensive for all. But the early adopters and our charging networks are inadequate and often poorly maintained. And for the past several months the previous TORG growth of EVs has flatlined, stuck at about 9% of new auto sales. The early adopter market is probably sated and the masses haven't yet seen an affordable and attractive model.

Speaker 1: 0:57

But the critics proclaiming the demise of EVs are short-sighted. To write off EVs is premature and also mistaken. They will eventually be proven to be the superior technology and they will dominate future markets. The question then will be who dominates those world auto markets? And to understand what's really going on, you have to drop the short-term snapshot view. You have to adopt a long view and look at the evolution in technology, and you have to look at what's going on in China.

Speaker 1: 1:27

First, the technology. Yes, evs can reduce carbon emissions and even in a state with the most coal-fired generation, west Virginia, an EV slightly bests the emissions from an internal combustion engine. That's because the electric propulsion system is so much more effective. The electric propulsion system is so much more effective. The US DOE data shows that EVs are 4.4 times more efficient than ICE vehicles. Second, and most important, ev and battery technology is still young, for that matter. So is the accompanying charging infrastructure, and it's still a mess. One need only look at Elon Musk's firing of his entire Tesla charging team, even while pledging on X on May 10th that he's going to make a $500 million investment in charging, to see how convoluted that world is. But let's look at the technology. It's inevitably going to get better, because battery tech is still in its infancy.

Speaker 1: 2:18

Battery companies are making new announcements near daily with respect to battery chemistries, energy densities, charging speeds and durations. We see it already in our market. In the United States, the number of EV options offering over 300 miles of range is up six-fold in the last three years, to 30 models, with another 20 to be offered later this year. That shouldn't be a surprise. Battery tech is all about material science and, with human brains yoked to supercomputers, there's no doubt as to the direction battery chemistry is going To. Take two examples China's contemporary Amperex technology just announced a battery that will take a car over one million miles in its lifetime, and that single company has a thousand scientists with advanced degrees in battery chemistry. Contemporary Amperex owns one-third of global lithium-ion battery markets. And then the Lucid Air's battery can charge about 300 miles in 15 minutes.

Speaker 1: 3:13

That rate of technological change isn't stopping there. It's only going to accelerate. By contrast, mature internal combustion engine technology doesn't get that much better. For example, nissan recently stated it took the industry nearly three decades to improve a motor to be able to extract 10% more efficiency. So forget today's headlines, forget carbon and climate. Focus on the trends and the underlying technology, and they will lead you to one inevitable conclusion Today's bloodletting will be forgotten, as electric vehicles, once they're mature, are destined to be recognized as superior, better efficiency, far better acceleration with lower centers of gravity, more fun to drive.

Speaker 1: 3:55

Also, fewer parts to replace, no air filters, no oil filters, fewer brake pads, though there is more wear on tires, even with today's EV tech, which has a long way to go. Aaa reports that 96% of current EV owners say they would buy or lease another electric. The question ultimately won't then be are EVs better? Instead, the question will be who makes the best vehicle, which happens to be electric. That's where the problem lies for anybody who cares about the future of the US auto industry, because in the West we haven't yet embraced an electric future.

Speaker 1: 4:30

But China has A report last week from Inside EVs in which the reporter spent a week in the country, visiting Shanghai and the Beijing auto show, should scare anybody worried about the future of American or European auto industries. His comment, quote Western automakers are cooked and a lot of this is probably their own fault. Unquote. He further asked what we're doing about it besides trying to pass tariffs. And yes, whether the future is Trump or Biden, we will do that. Last week, the Wall Street Journal wrote that the current administration is expected to increase tariff rates on Chinese vehicles from 25 percent to around 100 percent to shield US markets from lower Chinese imports.

Speaker 1: 5:14

But don't make the mistake of thinking less expensive means less innovative or of lower quality, as that reporter commented. Quote the showroom floor was filled to the gills with newly electrified models from every single domestic automaker. They all had something to prove and by God they were trying, and no matter the price point. They all had responsive, integrated vehicle interfaces that were quick, pretty and ubiquitous. A basic infotainment system in any given moderately priced Chinese EV beats the brakes off of some systems in cars that cost six figures unquote. So while we dither here as to what to do and let our ideological rivalries get in the way of developing national economic strategies, we run the risk of letting yet another industry that we once dominated and mastered slip away.

Speaker 1: 6:01

China has intentionally become a world leader in battery innovation and production. It is also the leading maker and consumer of electric vehicles. 43% of cars sold in China in March had a plug, a total of 743,000. The US 135,000. Several years ago, elon Musk sent a warning shot over Detroit's bow with Tesla's Model 3 becoming the most widely sold car in the country. In response, gm, ford and Stellantis then vowed to spend millions, but they're generally aiming to protect market share. They're still sluggish and they're still not all in on the technology of tomorrow, and they're probably too late If Europe and North America raise the protectionist moat of tariffs, they will still lose the rest of the world's auto markets to China and they will continue to fall behind, as the inside EV correspondent put it. At what point does blame shift from Chinese economic policy to the actions of the automakers themselves? I would add governments to that list.

Speaker 1: 7:05

So we need to dispense with the short-sighted and politically driven views as to what's occurring today. Try to understand what's really happening here and adopt the long view suggesting that the electric drive is inevitably a superior technology. We need to recognize this for what it is a global competition for the future of mobility, one of the planet's most important industries. Then we need to get behind a national policy, irrespective of which party is in power, to develop better battery tech and lower cost vehicles. The effort to win this game, or at least make a better showing and remain competitive, won't be comfortable. It won't be easy and mistakes will be made along the way. Then we can either point fingers, raise recriminations and adopt our typical short-term view, or we can learn from our mistakes and move forward. A leading industry is at stake, supporting millions of well-paying jobs. Do or do not. There is no try.