The Trump hand grenade

The global gas market faces turmoil and increased price volatility should Donald Trump return to the white house. Listen to a discussion why a Trump victory in November will be “like dropping a hand grenade on the energy markets”, the implications of Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure and Putin’s shadow fleet of LNG vessels. And will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?

Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel

Guests: Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics; Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

Transcript

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 0:08

Hello listeners and welcome to the Montel Weekly podcast, bring You Energy Matters in an informal setting given the tumultuous events of recent weeks in the Middle East and Russian advances in Ukraine. We return to the topic of geopolitics, the world around us is getting ever more uncertain and dare I say it, unsafe. What are the main concerns and what impact could they have on energy markets in Europe? I'm Richard Sverrisson and helping me to discuss the ramifications of the current geopolitical situation and uncertainties, Tobias Federico of Montel Analytics and Wayne, Bryan of London Stock Exchange Group LSEG for shorts. Warm. Welcome to you gentlemen.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 0:49

Thank you, Richard.

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 0:50

Thank you Richard. Good to see you again.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 0:51

Good to have you back, Wayne. Now I want just to, before we get into the geopolitics, I just wanna talk about where we are in the markets and the fundamental situation where what, in terms of wholesale gas prices, Wayne, where are we?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 1:03

What we saw was over recent weeks, we saw that geopolitical influence in terms of prices, sorry, in terms of prices. Prices were. Heading towards that sort of 23 Euro support line. And of course we had that, say trifecta, if not more of news outbreaks, mostly geopolitical. That really sent us back up. But what we've seen over the last probably few days is return to fundamentals. We've seen some easing of the geopolitical risk premiums, and what we've seen now is gas markets returning more to fundamentals, which for this summer are quite bearish.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 1:31

What's your view? Tobias, lower gas prices are driving power prices down right?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 1:35

Absolutely. Gas prices, NC O2 emission prices are the main price drivers. Right now it's gas prices and we really saw an upward trend in the electricity markets. We came from 70 euro reach, we reached almost 100. We didn't really hit them, but now it also came down parallel to the gas prices.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 1:53

And, we're ahead of the summer, it's, it feels bitterly cold at the moment, but I think prices are gonna remain in this level. Would you say for the coming weeks and months?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 2:02

We are speaking about a year ahead contracts, so the current weather really doesn't impact that. But nevertheless, you see always a correlation between spot market prices in year ahead prices, even though, at least in the power market and the gas market's driven are different. But in the power market, you see it has no fundamental impact, but it has a psychological impact.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 2:21

Sure, absolutely. And. Demand. Wayne, we, hear on almost on a weekly basis stories of demand destruction industry potentially thinking about relocating. Would it be fair to say that demand has fallen by 20% since pre COVID levels?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 2:37

Depend on your metrics. It's around that level. So we model demand destruction in both LD Z slash residential and also in the industrial sector. What we've noted is firstly the EU mandated target of 15%. We've been comfortably hitting that. For example, I'll take Germany because it's a stronger usage there at around 12.5%, 12% in terms of LDZ. You've got the Netherlands and Belgium, which are higher. So yeah, we are still seeing demand destruction, but I wouldn't just frame it as demand disruption. I would also frame it as behavioral changes. We've seen a shift in how consumers. Think about their energy usage and I can put myself in that bracket as well as not just myself, friends, family, et cetera. So yes, there is demand destruction, but for me now it's more about awareness of prices, adjusting your behavior as well as demand. Destruction. That's the residential industrial sector. Still heavy levels, and again, we have a model for that. We are looking at Germany, it's around 13% at the moment of demand destruction we see in the industrial sector and varying levels in different countries as well. So we see that present in both residential.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 3:46

And that's for mainly for gas though, right? Oh, only talking gas, yeah. So if I turn to you then Tobias to talk about power and Germany in particular is some of this. Demand destruction as we call it, or, a massive fall off in industrial electricity use. Is any of that gonna come back?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 4:03

Definitely not so quickly, honestly, because we are seeing an industrial sector, a few clouds on the horizon, and big companies are planning to lay off people right. We saw that, for example, Tesla, which is not, it's a nice example. It's not a big energy consumer in total, but it is a nice example to, to show that. And we are also seeing this in other heavy industry sectors that they at least planning to lay off people. So I think the reverse is to come looking into the electricity reduction consumption from the indu industrial sector. And this is not due to efficiency. This is due to really less demand and less productivity and less production.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 4:40

And would you say then that the threat of relocation or sort of offshoring as you called it in the break, when is that a real one?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 4:47

It is there, honestly. And it's not only driven by energy, it's also driven by, by other factors. General increasing costs general increasing interest rates. What we saw there. So refinancing some loans you had. This is also a parameter, so it's not only energy, but maybe it's caused by energy.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 5:05

And that's obviously there, you're talking about there's some. The macro economic clouds in as in a very sticky, high inflation interest rates. Low historically, but still very high for some industries. And especially, we are not gonna be talking about that so much today, but about the for, for renewables and new renewables growth. Now I'd like to turn to the geopolitics, which was, which is the topic of this this podcast. Wayne. With Ukraine, Russia, where are we now? We've seen for example, very recently some mighty, some serious attacks on their infrastructure on a gas storage unit. What's the impact that's having?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 5:40

In terms of the impact? We saw a slight uptick in prices with the attack on the storage facilities in in Western Ukraine. However, if you look at the operator, G-T-S-O-U, they come out and said that the facilities were still working. But what it does, it raises the specter of further attacks as we get closer to the transit deal. And this is something we've been talking about over the past couple of weeks that I wouldn't call it spite, but I would say as we get closer to the end of the year and expire of the contract, unfortunately we could see some further attacks with Russia knowing that, things are not gonna go back to how they were. It looks likely there's gonna be no interruptible capacity offered at different points. We've seen different quotes. Actually a lot of people in the market are not a hundred percent sure if we are gonna see any redistribution of flows. I think we did a webinar recently and we asked the audience, and it's 50, literally 50 50 split. So that uncertainty still looming. But I think for me, what the risk will be is. If they do start targeting it, it's gonna, there's about there's still a couple of BCM of foreign traders gas stored inside Ukraine, so that raises some concerns. But conversely, what it could do, we were talking about when we get close to filling storages towards the end of this summer season. There was a lot of talk of gas then being sent to Ukraine. So in essence that could be counter effect and be bearish for the European gas if there's nowhere to put that gas because now the risk premiums, I dunno about the insurance numbers, it's something we wanna try and get to the bottom of, actually surely have risen if you are transferring gas from Europe into the Ukraine and that, sorry. And as we get closer. To this expiry, then I start to fear what might happen. But on this, on the plus side, as we saw this morning, that huge aid package 97, 90 8 billion split between Taiwan Ukraine, and of course Israel. I think that's gonna enable them to really put more protection on these energy facilities. So perhaps that could counter way that. The threat from Russia. But I still think we haven't heard the last of this story in terms of attacks on infrastructure, especially gas. We've seen the power plants destroyed, but I think gas they may target more once that relationship ceases.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 7:43

Yeah. So we are, we're talking on Wednesday and the A package was ratified early in the early hours on the Wednesday. Yes. If, can you just talk us through the transit deal that comes to an end this year. That's the transit deal between UK and Russia. It seems slightly odd as well 'cause these two countries are at war, but yet they have a transit deal.

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 8:00

Yeah. It's something that people always ask, why are they still doing? I think it was beneficial for both parties, but I think as hostilities have continued to. I'd say worsen over the last few weeks. It's certainly got a bit stronger in terms of the impact on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and the impact on its population in terms of residential areas as well. So I think for me, that transit deal, yeah. People are now wondering, especially the likes of Austria, Italy, et cetera, how are they gonna get around this? And I think LNG to some degree would be the answer. But I still think there might, something might still happen in terms of we may still see some of that, but again, looking at the eus latest stance regarding Russian slash Belarusian Gas Imports pipeline and LNG and recent statements from G-T-S-O-U. It's looking less likely as we move closer to the end of the year. But our view is there'll be no renewing of this transit deal and the

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 8:54

GTSU? That's the Ukrainian correct transit gas transit operator. Tobias if I can ask you, so what are your expectations from the 1st of January next year? It's, will we see, would. Russian pipeline gas outta the system completely?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 9:09

I think so. If the contract will not be continued, which is a quite old one, honestly. So it was over years. We won't have any Russian guideline pipeline gas out of the Ukraine. Maybe in other flows could be well possible, but this deal will be finished. I'm quite sure it will not be continued. So the transit flow out of Ukraine will be zero then.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 9:30

Would you expect Russia to also, attack some of the pipeline system or within Ukraine?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 9:35

Could well be, but I think it's a difficult target. Honestly, a pipeline either it's, if it's on a surface, it's not quite big. It's only a few things, but most of them are not on the surface, they're below earth, so hitting them it's difficult. And when you look into pumping stations that might be talking about, it's, I think they are much more. Targets to be hit rather than the pipelines itself.

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 9:56

They have storage facilities for me is the one.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 9:58

Yeah. And these are often traders not, or you say they're non Ukrainians who own this storage facilities.

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 10:04

They call it The custom warehouse scheme for, yeah. For foreign traders to deposit gas in Ukraine and be exempt from any sort of tax and any other fees.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 10:12

So foreign companies, that's a way of helping the Ukrainians, but also in terms of a tightness of supply for Europe that can be pumped into continental Europe. So where do we stand then in terms of LNG import, REGAS capacity at the moment? Wayne, do we have too much of it, do you think?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 10:29

Maybe. Maybe I'll say too much. We've never got enough of the way the market is going at the moment. We have strong capacity, but again we have to think from next winter we're seeing this huge influx, or sorry, ramp up of global production, US projects coming online. So I think then we're gonna be in a very good, but now we do have some spare capacity. Yeah. And it's about attracting that LNG. And as much as we talk about the summer is quite bearish, which it is. And from a fundamental perspective, you still need to secure that LNG. You still need to maybe be in some competition with Asia, which is Asia's quite loose at the moment as well. So both markets are in a reasonably good position. But I think the fear for us, and we, I mentioned this mentioned this is what's gonna happen this winter. It's quite tight and for us, the summer's bearish. But as I highlighted earlier, that. For me and for us as a, in our team, we look at the risk for the winter and it's quite clear that if we do have a cold winter, and this is in our forecast, we do scenarios and we look at the cold potential for cold winter, we would enter summer 25 with storage is around 27%. Think where we were. It's almost half of what we, more than half of what we, how we entered this year. So think about the impacts of that. You've got the loss of some German coal capacity as well this winter January, as we just spoke about. You've got the loss of the additional Russian volumes. So for me, yeah, it's we, the energy capacity's great. We might need more further along down the line once that huge wave starts coming along.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 11:53

And how about Germany Tobias, does that have enough or should it have more? Or what, where do we stand?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 11:57

If you want to play the LNG market, really right, you need to have over capacities because you like a foam, you have to suck up all the surplus gas coming into the system at very low prices. And, for my personal opinion, we shouldn't have more and we need more. And again, as Wayne has said, I think we are not ready for two cold winters in a row. Maybe for one, but not for two. So we have to play the LNG market correctly, and this means working with our capacities, which is a little bit difficult, especially when you look into investments into LNG terminals where you have an average capacity rate, which might be below 50%. But we need that to play the market correctly.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 12:34

But that's not cheap either.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 12:36

Exactly. But what is securities of supply worth? Yeah. And if you compare that, that's never a stranded investment.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 12:43

Absolutely. And what about Russian LNG? Is that gonna be out the picture, do you think is gonna be, you, can you expect to see the EU happen at EU level or more national level?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 12:55

Well. Or let's say on a shadow level, maybe. I think officially not, but you never know. Molecules don't have a tag and a flag on it. You don't know where it really comes from. So might be some de rooting things where, I don't know, India I don't know where. So there will be Russian gas in the system. Not on purpose, but maybe by coincidence through some backdoor, through some loopholes.

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 13:18

Completely agree. Completely agree with that. And even people talk about this loss of. Russian, LNG. But let's just not forget if Europe does, it's not in a position to do it now, by the way, that's why you've seen nothing since the announcement. People are quite hesitant to say, oh yeah, we'll ban Russian NNG tomorrow because we know we need it for at least the next year or so. But I think what will happen after that, and again, it's just gonna be redistributed to the, into the global NNG system, the flows will go, like you've mentioned, towards India, towards China, some of that gas that would've gone there will come to Europe. So it's still gonna be in the system. And like we spoke about, who knows where the molecules that we receive come from. We've seen what's happened in the oil market. We've seen these shadow fleet, they call it. It's, yeah, like you said, there's, it's not like we can air tag gas molecules.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 13:59

No, absolutely. It's, it that's a good one. Good, Good point. I'd like to turn to now to the crisis in the Middle East. It's obviously, it's a total tragedy in human terms, but in terms of the energy or energy supplies to Europe, what. Let's talk a little bit about that because I think we've seen in recent weeks there was a real scare and a threat of escalation, but that's eased, is it? Would you say, Wayne?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 14:25

Yes, I certainly would. And I think, again, it's something I spoke about earlier. If you look at how this played out. So of course Israel attacked the consulate in Syria. Then Iran was not say forced, but Iran decided we're gonna, we're gonna respond to this. We're gonna let our people know that we're gonna respond to this. And then of course, and I wouldn't say I find it funny because war isn't funny, but what I find interesting is they launched this huge barrage of drones and missiles. They announced it live on tv. We know these shahi drones are very slow. So Israel already know where they're coming from, what direction, what sort of time they'll arrive in conjunction with uk, I think France, America. As these missiles were heading towards Israel, they didn't stand a chance. And I think Iran knew that. So it was symbolic. We saw one missile get through, I think it hit an airfield, but there was no death saw, just a small bit of damage. And then of course, we saw Israel respond with a few token drones that entered were in Iran, which again was shot down. There's rumors that Israel actually did hit some targets, but we've seen no confirmation of that yet. And again, at the end of that, it's a kind of both. Both sides have okay, we've satisfied our people's requirements. We're defending our sovereignty, et cetera. And I don't think either wants to get, at the moment, dragged into a larger scale war. But it was quite a shock for the first time ever. We saw Iran directly attack Israel from its own soil, which took it to a whole new level. But that escalation a lot of people expected in looking at the price curves, the market expected it. Has not come to pass. And I think now both sides of can say they've won in some respect. So I don't see, unless something else occurs, I don't see. A ramp up to back to those levels and looking at the market, we've seen the sort of reaction to that, but it's still a tinderbox. As I said, things can change. Geopolitics can move at such a rate of knots. We could see some more action this weekend. You just don't know. So

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 16:17

Yeah, I think just to provide the listeners with some context we are here at the end of the German Energy Day where you both gave excellent presentations today. So when, with some of these comments some of these issues were mentioned in your presentations, but to be a, we're talking okay, deescalation. But, and, but there's often been a mention of the closing of the straight homers and that could have a dramatic impact, of course, but is it likely to happen? Is this a realistic concern, would you say, Tobias?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 16:44

It depends a little bit on the timeframe you're looking at. I think in the, as Wayne has said, in a short period, not. Because the deescalation somehow was there. We have been expecting either a overt, really huge attack from Israel, but it was a little bit more covert. And in the interfect it was drones against drone, which is a different type of warfare and there is a little bit of a danger. But it was also that Iran was kidnapping one of the container ships connected to Israel in the strai of Haus. And of course that has an impact. Because compared to the Hootie attacks in the Red Sea shipping routes could be deviated around the Cape of Good Pope instead of using the sue canal. So that would increase cost, but it would not decrease volumes in total. But looking into the strait of a moose there, we are having the potential impact of decreasing energy supply, which is primarily oil, but looking into Germany, which is natural gas LNG from Qatar. So if that would have been blocked, then we would have an issue. Not only Europe, but all of the world and the American capacities as far as I can see, are not that big to compensate that right now.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 17:50

No, absolutely. So that's that is. Still a concern, although given the deescalation or the not deescalation we fear that hasn't quite happened. And turning to the Red Sea Wayne are LNG vessels likely to resume using that route in the near term? If there's, in the current given,

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 18:06

I don't think we're quite ready for that yet. And actually, again, this is another question that needs to be looked into in terms of how's the insurance premiums now traveling through there. That's another question you need to look at. Are they still at elevated rates? But I think in the short term, I don't think we're gonna see a return to how it was at the moment, but I think. Over the next few months, if things don't escalate further and we see a quite simmering of the tensions then, or some resolution, it seems a bit far fetched at the moment then yes, we're back to normal. But I don't see at that, that happening in the short term. Maybe into the new year perhaps.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 18:39

And you both mentioned the US and I'd like to, I think finally just mention there's some key elections happening this year. We'll start off with the one that's happening in November, so the US presidential election, it's a bit shocking to think that the primary democracy, the, the land of the free has got, the only two options are two men in eighties or near eighties white men I should say as well. What happens? It looks likely at the moment or there's a trial ongoing, but it looks likely that Trump will win the presidential election to this. What kind of what are the ramifications of that for, we'll start off with LNG, Global Supply.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 19:14

We are both laughing. The thing is that it could be become the worst nightmare as you has mentioned today, and Richard, this was really good. Donald Trump is like a hand grenade throwing into the whole geopolitical risks, and we really see that looking into LNG. We might have two possibilities. One is gas first for America because, having low gas prices means an increase for their economy and the economic growth which also means then less gas for the whole world market. And then depends on how we reacts in the far east. Might well be that we will get a gas shortage in the first step, or it could be the other way around. Yeah, we will sell our gas, but on our terms, which means increasing gas prices. So both ways, I think it's quite likely to have increasing LNG prices for Europe.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 20:00

He's a businessman. He doesn't wanna, cut off his nose despite his face. Does he really?

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 20:03

Yeah. But he wants to earn money, so

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 20:05

Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 20:05

Selling the same volume at a higher price.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 20:08

But you've mentioned as well before Wayne about potential tariffs with China that could come into play. How do you see that playing out?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 20:16

I say, as I mentioned earlier, I think there's literally a hand grenade into the sort of global geopolitical situation at the moment. And I think. Nothing's off the table and that's what's concerned. I think when Trump was last in power, I was in my previous role trading, I used to have his Twitter feed up on one of my screens because he would say things that even his team wouldn't know about, just straight to the world. And some of that was related to oil, for example. Used to move a lot on his comments, of course, what he did with the gas market in terms of, let's just ramp up and export, tear up all of these environmental agreements. Ramp up production and let's get America back in business again. So I think you've got that impact as well. But also, like Tamaya said, you've got the chance of increased prices. But back to the tariffs, of course, I've already seen, I've started to watch a few of his rallies now. I'm not a fan by the way, but just to gauge how he is. And I've heard him mention tariffs and China's still playing us and nato, and I'll stop that. He will walk into office with about 3000 ideas and no one will know which way he's gonna turn next. And that for me is the concern. And the one thing I associate with Donald Trump. Volatility. And that's all I'll say on that in terms of that's what he brings. Unpredictability, volatility, uncertainty, words that traders don't really like. Volatility, yes, but just the unpredictability of him and what he can do on any given minute and the impact he can have on the global, not just the global energy market, but just the global markets in general. Because yeah, some of his ideas are. Quite off the chart, should I say, compared to your usual politician,

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 21:47

I would like to add something to that because we are in a world where when you say, just say words. They suddenly get a meaning and they get an impact. When he spoke about, while everybody has to con contribute to the 2% NATO tariff, or if not Russia, you feel free to invade. These are just words, but it's so dangerous. Yeah. And that's something where could become the versus nightmare.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 22:11

Absolutely. And round the corner Tobias are European elections and we've seen in certain European countries claw back in, in terms of the green transition in terms of some of the policies that were put in place has so far, happened so much in Germany. Germany has its other issues but. Do you see that there's a danger, there could be a backlash and that could come in the next European parliament. I know you're not a regulation specialist as it were, but that it is part of the political picture here that if the parliament or the formation of the Parliament contains maybe not a majority, but certainly a blocking minority of people who are opposed to the, these kind of green or environmental policies that could really slow down this energy transition and maybe hinder some of the targets.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 22:55

Yeah. Could well be if I just can speak for Germany, we see a movement onto the, let's say, extreme wings, right and left. And what they both have in common is that if you look into the right wing. It's strong nationalism. So why should we in Germany, so Germany first and what both have together, and that's a little bit. Weird is that they seem to be huge friends with Russia. So if those forces are going to be increased a maybe agreement with Russia to import gas might be possible if they would be in power, which is quite unlikely. But nevertheless, we do see that the majority of the German voters have the tendency to go. To the extreme left and right because with the German government, they only see most of the negative parts, which is, at least that's the impression that this current government to make this energy transition possible, they're forbidding everything. It's forbidden to run a car on a gasoline motor. It's forbidden to heat with natural gas. You have to have. He pumped. You have to have an electric car. And all this forbiddenness really impacts I think the general mood within Germany and that might have an impact also on the European Parliament.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 24:07

Because it creates problems in the day-to-day life, doesn't it? It puts in obstacles and they have to work around, and I think that

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 24:13

expensive obstacles as well. If you're talking like electric cars and the sort as well. So yeah.

Tobias Federico, Director, Montel Analytics: 24:19

And it's uncomfortable. And you change something which is today uncomfortable with something which might be in the future uncomfortable, which is climate change. But I don't see that. Yeah, it's a little bit warmer. But just saying this ironically so you trade two different things and that's makes it really difficult in the storytelling against the general population.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 24:38

And just finally, Wayne, India is that, as an action in India, the world's biggest democracy, world's biggest will that any kind of consequence for energy?

Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG: 24:47

I think Modi is gonna win by all accounts. So if he does, I don't personally see any change to India's current policies, but of course, if the other side get in, there could be some changes. But I just don't see Modi not winning personally.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 25:01

I think I think one thing is certain in all this talk of uncertainty that it's gonna be a very rocky ride and a rollercoaster ride in, in, in the weeks, months, and probably even years to come. Gentlemen, thank you very much again for being guests on the Montel Weekly podcast.