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Ramping up batteries

Montel News Season 6 Episode 37

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0:00 | 34:38

It's clear for many that Europe needs to ramp up battery energy storage capacity over the next decade to help decarbonise the economy. But where does this leave battery developers and manufacturers who must navigate the complex markets and battle against negative pricing?

In this episode, Richard speaks to Neoen’s MD of Sweden about the largest battery in the Nordic region that will start operating early next year. In addition, we hear from Rystad Energy’s battery expert about the market conditions and the competitive threat from China that we have already seen start to impact local European manufacturers.

Host: Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guests: Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen
               Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy

 

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Hello listeners and welcome to the Montel Weekly podcast where we bring you the latest news issues and changes happening in the energy sector. This week we're focusing on batteries Europe plans to ramp up battery energy storage capacity over the next decade to help decarbonize the economy. Our own journalists here at Montel News have covered the issue extensively in recent weeks, but it's a tricky balancing act for battery developers who must navigate the complex markets to optimize revenue. And there are pressures to install batteries to take excess renewable energy off the grid to tackle the risk of negative pricing. And some countries have seen a massive rise in available battery capacity this year alone. Are they the answer to the green energy transition? And what are some of the complexities that follow this simple sounding solution? Well over 600 kilometers away from Stockholm in the Isbillen Power Reserve in Northern Sweden sits the largest battery in the Nordics. One of the project managers on the ground there sent us these recordings from the plant.

Project manager, Neoen:

I am standing at the gates of Neoen's second battery in Sweden, Isbillen Power Reserve with its installed capacity over 93.9 megawatt. It is the largest battery in the Nordics. BESS and power reserve is situated in the deep forest of northern Sweden, a hundred kilometers from the closest larger town, and three and a half kilometers from the closest house. This battery is situated in one of Sweden's largest wind farm clusters. With more than 200 wind turbines, the amount of batteries in this whole battery park adds up to the equivalent of 1,500 electric cars. The battery will primarily be used for balancing the power system by selling ancillary services to the transmission system operator sensor a cleft net. As I'm taking a few steps inside the gate, I find myself on a gravel surface the size of two football fields. On this surface stand, 36 green containers from EC filled with batteries. The containers are standard sized 20 feet containers, so approximately six meters long, two and a half meters wide, and three meters high. In front of every two containers there is an outdoor transformer stepping up the voltage to 32 kilovolts. These transformers are connected to switch gear, containers, and these containers are then connecting the battery. To the substation, just 50 meters behind me across the road where the grid company eon connects the battery and some wind farms in the nearby area to the 130 kilowatt regional grid. The construction is almost complete and in the coming months, the testing and commissioning will also be finished. Once the battery has been qualified with a transmission system operator since a claf net, the battery will go into operation. This is planned to happen during the middle of the spring 2025.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Well, I'm pleased to be joined now by Laetitia Prot from Neoen. Who led the development of that battery project and also Lars Lysdal from Rystad Energy who consults on batteries, solar pur, and sustainable fuels. Now a warm welcome to both of you.

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

Thank you. Nice to be here.

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Thank you. Hello.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

I'd like to start with you, Laetitia. We heard from your colleague Christian there about the battery you have in Sweden. I'd like to maybe you know, if you could clarify the main uses of batteries. I, you know, the wholesale market is. Generally divided into several timeframes. So we have the day ahead, we have the intraday market, and then we have the balancing market where, as far as I'm aware, that's the biggest use for batteries. Could you maybe explain the uses of batteries and how it works?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yes. Sure. So this is billing battery. We have been discussing in your introduction. It's been it's been built on the main purpose of doing frequency regulation for the grid. So it's basically capacity based business model where a short ta, short duration of batteries can address it. It's really like the megawatt part of the battery that will be valued. Not the megawatt hour part, the energy part of the battery, because the activation time is very quick, but very seldom. Like it's for example, on the, it's either continuous small activation or some sporadic activation in case of major default on the grid to avoid like blackout in the country. But. This is not really a very long duration storage. So this, and most of the batteries in Sweden that we have today have been built for this purpose to do like frequency regulation mainly. The magic of this is Billion battery project is that it's is the first of its kind extendable battery. Meaning it's been designed in terms of civil work, electrical work, to, to add a second hour of storage on it when market condition change and the future use cases of battery start to, to materialize and make sense. But so far it's been mostly driven by capacity market and not so much of this. They or they had arbitrage nor balancing ca business cases really like capacity and grid services driven.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Okay. So it's basically helping to keep the lights on when there is a massive problem in the grid where there's a drop or rise in frequency. So what kind of problems do batteries aim to solve? Laetitia?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

It's actually not a new thing that like all the grid networks have always needed some security reserve in all the countries in case there is a trip. Of a power plant or a, like a big storm, cutting a line or like when something happens, you need to have a backend plant to to maintain the grid. But it's been historically driven by like conventional generators and in some country, mostly thermal generators. So the idea is that batteries today are trying to replace this conventional asset to do the same. Service and, but we are just quicker to react and cheaper to render the service. So this. Innovation here. So we're trying to displace all conventional asset from the, from this use case.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

And obviously that's much cleaner if it's done with batteries that, that then are full of re renewal wedge, if you like. That we, I've seen some latest figures from Sweden, Laetitia saying that installed capacity in the most used balancing market. I know that's not where you're saying you are not active or this, where that battery is not used so much, but it's risen from. 80 megawatts at the start of the year to 530 at the beginning of October. Has that surprised you, the extent of the growth in battery capacity?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yeah. No, that's not surprising. And it's I mean it's very similar to what has happened to the uk, to France, to Germany. Like all the market maturing with like battery penetration very fast and displacing this conventional asset from the market. So it's actually even now going to be double the number you're, you are mentioning. So it's going to be up to a gigawatt. Potentially by year end qualified on the ancillary services. So it's a huge market and so it is been as its own, it's 10% of their market share the battery we've been talking about. And we have another battery also in Sweden totaling 145 megawatt with both of them. So yes, it's a very rapid battery rollout. And then we need to think about the next use case because it's al already saturated. If you look at the market sizes, the need is only half of the size of the battery fleet now. So we need to find more innovative use case for battery going forward.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

And what does it do to the business case? If you've seen this massive rollout? I mean, certainly is it as profitable? It can't be as profitable as it was like a year or so ago.

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yes. So we're exploring now more energy based use cases with the battery. And so for example, other under other ancillary services like A-F-R-M-F-R, which are actually Restoration Reserve instead of just containment reserve, meaning it's a longer reactive time of reserve and potentially more in energy intensive one. So we are exploring these ones. And then we are also exploring, of course, as you mentioned at the very beginning, the arbitrage use case. So basically trading with batteries capturing, low and high prices and trying to balance the system this or can bring new revenue streams. But I think, this is very promising for sure, but what is even more interesting, I think for the future use cases of batteries in Sweden is the bilateral agreement we can try to do with the main producer of main consumers. For example, on the nuclear. Ramping up. We have been doing this in Finland with TVO, the operator of this two, three brand new EPR in Finland. So we are providing direct service to them to help them ramp up their third 300 megawatt new facility. So it's a bilateral agreement. And service to them. And maybe in Sweden we will have similar other cases with some nuclear upgrade for to run into or for Force Mac nuclear plant. They may need some backup and they realize that battery is just cheaper and quicker to do these services. And also some other use case that could be interesting to explore in Sweden. And they are starting to explore it, I think in Germany and in France to do some decongestion on the grid. We know it's very known in the energy sector that the grid is full and it'll take 10 to 15 years to reinvest in all the grid infrastructure and battery could actually have to unlock some congested area or congestive lines to to bring more access to new producer or consumers by providing like the congestion. And at Nen, we have already done this kind of services. Since 2021 already with our Victoria and big battery in Australia, it's a 300 megawatt battery doing similar services. Providing a huge benefits to the local society because it's also lowering the electricity price for the end user by allowing more power flows and avoid big price gap between the countries on Interconnector, for example.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Absolutely. You. You've highlighted the use cases very eloquently there Laetitia. But Lars, if I can turn to you, have you been surprised by this rapid growth in battery capacity, certainly in, in the Nordic region, elsewhere in Europe?

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

Absolutely. And I think it's been predominantly driven, not only by the variability and the consumption of electricity and the variability in the. Generation of electricity, but also the fact that these systems, so the battery, a storage systems have come down tremendously in cost probably around half in terms of total system cost or over the last two, two and a half years in Europe. And that kind of drives new demand again. So we've seen tremendous. Demand for battery storage in the UK and Germany has been for many years, the UK now for a couple of years. And then Sweden has been quite hot also in, in Northern Europe. And then we're starting to see signs of this in Denmark also. And then in terms of Southern Europe, Spain, we're seeing a lot of interest, predominantly driven by solar. So there's a kind of a synergy aspect there. But also auctions coming in, in Greece and Turkey and Hungary. So yeah, it's a lot of people opening up for this 'cause it's like Laetitia mentioned, it's. It can be a quite a quick and and cheap, relatively cheap way to solve a lot of the grid issues or stability issues.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

A cheap way to de decongest if you like, or unlock some of the congestion that's on those networks. So that's a very interesting use case I think. But I think. But the sentiment is that we need to continue to do this and to find ways to do it. But what are the challenges in increasing the capacity or com the growing out, expanding, rolling out the these storage systems?

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

I'm not sure if there's a, an issue with the, this rolling out the systems themselves. We're seeing new use cases, like I mentioned a lot, like Europe hasn't been much of a market in terms of co-locating with solar or wind. We are seeing some examples of the solar colocation in Europe. I think it's two assets now, and there's some more push on the colocation with wind also. So that's kind of a new use case. I guess, and another thing that we're seeing is that because the costs are coming down so much and Laetitia is alluding to is that you can actually now justify the investment of a standalone battery storage plant. With only doing the revenue projection for day ahead and intraday energy trading. So basically charting the battery and paying for electricity when the prices are low and then discharging and getting the revenue when the prices are higher. And this is completely new and we're seeing this in Texas right now, actually, majority of the new and storage systems, there are the economics behind the investments are based on. Energy trading and not and the grid services the kind of legacy services for batteries are a bonus. In addition potentially, because I think a lot of investors have are scared of investing in batteries with with some of these markets being saturated from over investments in batteries. So maybe that's what you're referring to as a risk item. We've seen that in, in Germany in 20 18 19, and in the uk October last year when the prices for these these services plummeted. And I think we're starting to see that in Sweden also, that there's basically too many batteries competing for the same service, that being great service.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

So in the ancillary service. So they're moving more into day ahead and inter trading. That's quite a, that's a very interesting development in that sense. But what kind of size of batteries are we talking about here? Lars.

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

So like a big battery in in Germany are, is typically 200, 250 megawatts and I think they're a little bit smaller in the uk. But Europe is really lagging in terms of battery size. Like in in the US you have several gigawatt towers. You have one big one in New York, which is actually replacing gas peaker plants which I believe is around two gigawatt hours. I can't remember exactly. There are some examples of co-located batteries that are three and four gigawatt hours. So this is, you know, incredible scale just for reference so a four gigawatt hour battery with a four hour duration is typically one gigawatt. A big nuclear reactor is typically one gigawatt, so it gives you a little bit of reference for how big these systems are starting to get.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Okay. But that's fascinating. I think, it certainly things are developing very quick and I'd like to move over to the technological advantages that we can maybe see coming in the years ahead. I would like to come back to that and talk to Laetitia about that later as well. But. Lar, we, there's been a lot of news in certainly the Nordics and elsewhere about battery manufacturers. How experiencing severe problems. So we've had North Vault in Sweden and Freyr in Norway. There are others that can be mentioned. First of all what's underlying issues? What's tremendously difficult,

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

and this is batch manufacturing, battery cell manufacturing especially, is a very extremely difficult sector to be in, in terms of ramping up production at high volume and being profitable. And these, like the two examples you mentioned Freyr, Northwood are startup companies that, that basically starting from scratch, they don't have any kind of, they're not industrial spinoff companies. And then what happened to them and to all the players in Europe is that they were basically hit by a perfect storm with. Which kind of started with the inflation reduction Act being sanctioned in the us, which then made incentives so good to produce cells, battery cells, that many of them, it was very difficult to prioritize European production over American production and that's what happened with Friar. So they have to, had to prioritize their Georgia plant over there. Plant in Norway. And then there's many examples of that, like Tesla moving there. Norville also focusing more on, on the Canadian plant with the, with w has us similar incentives. And then you had a lot of, in 20, 22, 23, oil prices increased a lot and that meant that a lot of investors shifted their focus more over to oil and gas. And then you're advising interest rates and very high inflation. So then in the capital intensive industry, it was very hard to get to raise money. More difficult to pay off the s loans. And then on top of that, you had the EV slowdown, so the electric vehicle demand in Europe, which is still growing, but all the automakers are gonna scaling back their production forecasting and then they are requiring less battery cells to buy from these battery producers. So that's, that was another one on top of everything.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

So it's a bit of a perfect storm here, combined with the attractiveness of the USA and the IRA as a site for production for these sources. But Laetitia, if I cannot turn to you and say. And ask really, does it really matter where these batteries are produced? It seems, as Lars has mentioned, and I think you in insinuated as well, that you hinted at the costs are coming down quite rapidly. Does it matter if they're Chinese American or Scandinavian,

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

I mean, it actually matters when it comes to carbon footprint and traceability and forced labor topic. Which are very important to, to, to us. So yes, it, it matters. But at the same time, I mean, if you imagine big Chinese manufacturers installing like gga factories in Europe with a good level of carbon footprint and traceability, then for us. That's fine. And at the end we want maybe security of supply to have short delivery time for batteries and good carbo footprint and like sound companies. And also we need to remain that in stationary, like grid scale battery we're doing for the, in our business. For example in east billion power reserve, the battery we have been discussing earlier there, it's actually only like 30, close to 30% coming from the battery cells only. So it's not only about battery cells, it's the rule. Do you have a lot also of electrical equipment? Civilian electrical engineering and works and also like project management, if you look at the whole CapEx. So it's it's an important debate and it's nice to have industry. In Europe. But it's not the only the only driver for us as end users of the whole battery system, I would say.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Do you think we'll continue to see more, you know, local manufacturers in Europe struggle with competition from China and the us I mean, there, there is talk about the batteries being compared to the European. Solar industry, for example. Do you think that's a fair comparison?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Solar industry as I mean as Mayo Draghi said it in his report. For solar is a bit too late. It's difficult to catch up in front of Chinese manufacturers. Battery. Maybe there is still room to to go for it, for to have a European champion. But I'm not sure. It's not really my area of expertise.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Sure, sure. But Lars what's your view here? What are your thoughts in terms of, you know, European versus Asian competition and the, is it that. The subsidies are far greater in China and USA, so they're always, the Europeans would always struggle to compete and be competitive?

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

I think. I think there will be, it will be challenging, but because yeah, like you mentioned not only do the Chinese have a lot of subsidies and the Americans do also, but the Chinese also have a lower labor cost, and they have, but most importantly, they have the. The momentum and scale of this, I mean they, the Chinese government set out a plan to become the best in the world in battery cell manufacturing as part of EV or electric vehicle manufacturing in 2004 as a governmental program. So this is what they're reaping the benefits of now. So they started basically 20 years before the US and we don't see any major initiatives. In the eu yet not that have been sanctioned. There's critical Raw Materials Act, there's some project support here and there, but it's nowhere near the scale needed. Like you have to get on the same scale as the Inflation reduction Act for it to be really meaningful. But having said that, there are some really good projects out there. There are some projects that are focusing more on energy storage, which is easier, lower entry barriers to get into. And then. That meaning there's a lot of gigafactories in Europe also being set up to make these energy storage systems and they are more inclined to use newer players, I would think.'cause they're not as they don't have the same kind of scale and manufacturing and locking in one battery cell for seven years like the automakers do, and not the same level of quality needed perhaps. And also some of the new and some of the European manufacturers are. Asian and or Chinese and Korea and then players setting up factories in Europe. So that's promising. And then also some of the startups are more focused on one plant. I think a major issue with Northwell also. They invested in or targeted six cell factories and then manufacturing and battery cell recycling, and then energy storage systems manufacturing in Poland. And they had some solid state investment. So there was so much spread out for one small startup initially. It's very challenging, so I don't think they are the example of everybody else. So hopefully. Hopefully some of the European ma makers startup companies will also make it.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Laetitia Lars mentioned the fact that a lot more batteries are coming into the day ahead and intraday timeframe. Is this something that's interesting for you and what are your views here?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yeah, it's very interesting indeed. However, the Swedish market itself is not so liquid and there is not so much market potential for these spreads. Today, at least like Germany and Central Europe may have more interesting opportunity in that market. But here maybe, in early next year, 25, we're switching to the 15 minutes market instead of hourly trading windows. So this may bring more opportunities. To trade in trading. Yeah. Let's see,

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

so if the conditions were right, but the marketing conditions were there, then you'd be very interested in that. Is that what you're saying?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yeah, for sure.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Absolutely. What about the regulatory environment? You meant the 15 minute timeframe? The trading timeframe and on, on intraday day ahead, but intraday, sorry, but what? What about the regulatory framework? Is that fit for purpose here? For to give, to continue to give the story batteries a boost?

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

Yes. I think it's very important that you mention it and maybe I wanted to comment earlier on the where are the challenges for battery rollout? In Europe and specifically in Sweden. I think we have some good European tool. Picasso and Marie to give a market, like a market design and access for for Swedish batteries. But Sweden has been, is a bit lagging behind in implementing this. Like it's Sweden itself is three years late compared to the rest of European TSOs. Namely on a FR market. So today we cannot access to this market. We need to wait two to three more years before we can have this access. And then on, for example, on co-location, I think Lash mentioned it's a very good potential to be able to. To team up with wind and solar, to do something smart together. However for example, today there is some regulatory issues like in Sweden. You need to be physically behind the matter of such wind and solar, wind fab to be able to, to. To arbitrate together with the battery, whereas in several countries of Europe and in a lot of countries actually are allowed to do it virtually, which provides even more potential to balance each other on the same grid, but not necessarily behind the matter physically, right? So today in Sweden we, we cannot even do it in the same price zone, which is a bit an issue. So hopefully it'll change at some point. And then the other. Yeah. And the last challenge I see on the regulatory aspect is on the grid fees structures. So what I mean by grid fees is the cost of using the grid. With the battery, and it depends how DSOs and TSOs are seeing the battery. Some of them, like in Finland, they are very good at it. They consider, they just look at the net usage of the grid. Whereas in Sweden, you are being like paying grid fees on, on the capacity energy in feed and outfit, like in everywhere you're paying fees and it's by a factor of 50. The grid fees, the cost of operating a battery because of grid fees is 50 times higher in Sweden compared to Finland, for example. So it's just alighting the fact that there are room for improvement in how the regulation is made how battery are perceived by the DSO and TSO, namely in light of the cost of using the grid. The tax associated to it, because half of the grid trees is made of tax in Sweden is the energy tax. And I'm not really sure it's it's really the right the right way to, to develop more batteries.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

And that's also the case in other countries as well. In Europe, I think I've heard a lot about, being, having. Pay grid fees on, on, on charging the battery and also releasing the energy back into the system. So obviously there's a need for some kind of harmonization and and standardization across the board here. Lars, what are your feelings? Lars, I mean, what would be your regulatory, what would be on the top of your regulatory wishlist as it were?

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

I think co-locating with solar should be prioritized and making that regulatory, no regulatory hurdles on that. I think there's a lot of existing solar plants that could benefit from this. And if they could install batteries quite easily and not, and then you don't have the interconnection queue issue, which you see a lot in the us and it's starting to build up also in, in Europe. And for one solar asset, they could increase their kind of utilization of the the interconnection they have.'Cause they produce a lot of power midday which is then closing to the peak of, or the peak production is closing to the kind of interconnection capacity they have. And then is a very low evening and morning. And then obviously know when the sun is not shining. But if they could shift some of that over to the generation in the peak, over to with batteries over to morning and evening, then they can utilize and generate more.'cause often they're also curtailed. They could in theory, produce more than they are doing, but they're shut off from producing more. So if they could smoothen out that generation, then. That would be advantageous to them and the whole kind of grid system.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

Absolutely. That's like using solar power at night, which is, which would be the perfect answer here in many ways. But I'd like to just finish off by talking about the technology and what we can see coming. Are we still a very long way of having seasonal battery storage?

Lars Lysdal – Advisory Partner and battery expert, Rystad Energy:

I think having like batteries that are. That average duration of weeks is stable a long way away. There's look outside of this m iion, there's a lot of new technologies with flow batteries and gravity and cryogenic. But it's still quite immature and not really produced at scale. There are some efforts to, some of them are quite good, but, and what the issue is with this longer duration storage technology is that you're then competing with basically gas power peaker pads which are then installed. They are mature technology and they operate quite cheaply, relatively speaking to these new technologies and they have the CapEx sunk. That's a tough market to get into, I think. I think what we will see is that the lithium ion that we see today will increase in duration and eat into. More and more like now, it's a good system or a good system today paired with solar can generate power 24 7 basically all through the night. But you could have batteries that are such duration that it's basically can generate power two to three days if the EC and the economics could kinda support that. But that's still a few years away. We're seeing a tremendous cost decrease on these systems. And then that opens up new applications that we probably don't understand today, and that is largely driven by China and Europe actually. But the important thing is the manufacturing scale of these systems is increasing so much.'cause you've gone from. Single production systems with all labor to scaling up this into manufacturing lines and standardizing all the componentry making it all work together rather than shopping different parts into a system that. From legacy kind of power electronics and components. Now you're making complete battery systems that are also with inverters. So they go directly onto the grid through a transformer, but as one kind of produced system rather than different cometry underneath it.

Laetitia Prot – Managing Director Sweden, Neoen:

I agree with Lars. I think it would be an interesting breakthrough to have weekly storage capability because, for example, when you have a windy week in Sweden, the wind is likely to stay a few days. So you'd be happy to displace it to the next week. And not only by one hour because it will not solve your issue. And I've heard that, for example, data center could be helping on that because they're apparently about to display data from one data center to another. And Don and that's doing some like GSS style weekly storage response. But that's it.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:

No, that's, it's all very exciting. I know we've talked about on, in this pod, in, in previous episode, about, about dealing with the the that the magical German word Dunkerflaute in the, when it's it's dark in winter and there's no winds, but so hopefully storage can meet some of those challenges. Thank you very much Laetitia and Lars for joining me on the Montel Weekly podcast. It's been a fascinating discussion, and I'm sure it's a very exciting section. I think it's very fast moving. So thank you again.