The Weekly Trend

Episode 235: Heavenly Crown

Kevin Firari Season 6 Episode 1

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0:00 | 32:00

In this week's episode, David and Ian review the market developments witnessed in 2024, the start to 2025, the Santa Claus Rally, the U.S. Dollar, and the relationship between gold and U.S. equities. 

David Zarling

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, January 3rd, 2025, our first episode of 2025, S& P 500, currently sitting at 59. 40. I'm David Zierling, I'm here with Ian McMillan. Took a week off for Christmas, Ian. This is our first episode in the new year. How was your Christmas?

Ian McMillan

it's very good. Very relaxing. Big road trip up to Maryland to see Kate's side of the family. The kids got to see their cousins, which is Super fun now, they're all at the, I mean they're all walking, so they're all pretty much troublemakers.

David Zarling

That's awesome.

Ian McMillan

But no it was very good. What about yourself? I know you've had an interesting last few months.

David Zarling

Yeah. I appreciate that. It was a very special Christmas for our family as well. As you know, our family needs a savior and we follow Jesus and one of the rewards of doing that is you get heaven and you know, Jesus saved us without anything we can do. And. You know, I'm happy to let people know that my dad now has his heavenly crown. He passed away on December 23rd. And I'm so excited for him to have the best Christmas ever. I will miss him dearly. He was a chief counselor of mine, a great mentor and a great leader. But these are the things that await us all. And so I'm just. You know, happy for him that he gets to be with his savior. And we wait our turn as well. So I appreciate that. Ian don't, I don't want to spend an extraordinary amount of time on that topic, cause I don't know that our listeners, but to see me get emotional. But the year of 2024 will always be remembered for a variety of reasons. One of those will be dad in heaven. But I think it's also fair to say if I can pivot it this way a really nice year for Markets.

Ian McMillan

Nice year for markets first of before we go there, very beautifully said. But yes, 2024 also continuation of the bull market. I think there were signs very early on in 2024, I think it was mid early to mid January. We broke above that 4, 800 level. Just a great signal there. And we felt it would lead to continued strength. I don't know if it's gonna be 10%, 20%, 40% who knows, but we did feel like the trend would continue up and it did back to back 20% years. I think the first time this sent, is it the first time this century

David Zarling

Yeah. I mean, that, it by all intents and purposes back to back When I look back in history, you're right. There, we haven't seen that in quite some time, to have back to back 20 percent years.

Ian McMillan

and I think the I wanna say there was. Four straight years to end the 90s. We're using the S& P here.

David Zarling

Right.

Ian McMillan

I think four straight years. That's The longest streak I'll have to

David Zarling

Well, we could do this real quick. 1995 was 33%, 20 percent in 96. 1997, 31%, 1998, 26%. And 1999, just shy about

Ian McMillan

Five. Five straight years and that was the last time you had Back to back 20 percent years.

David Zarling

Yeah. You got to go all the way back to,

Ian McMillan

Now 2019, 29%, 2020, 16%, 2021, 26%. So a close one. Had we not missed out on 2020, which it's only 4 percent away, we we could have had a nice three year streak there. But nonetheless, something to be grateful for right? As a market participant, you know that you did not get to pick your trend. Or direction or the volatility within said trend. You don't really get to pick anything. You just get to constantly adapt. So when you are given a nice, and I would say for all intents and purposes, 2024, a low volatility year I think we had what the big correction in July. And then that was kind of it.

David Zarling

yeah.

Ian McMillan

And I don't even know if that was, I mean, I don't even know if that was 10%. It was okay. Barely. Let we'll call it nine and a half, 10%. So, I mean, that was your correction for the year. I got to say that's a low volatility year.

David Zarling

Oh yeah. That's a low volatility when you only have, one of those and you can expect one, you can expect one 10 percent correction. It's not a guarantee, you know, that's just the averages. If I may use that term. But to your point, very 2017 ish, not same degree. Cause I believe the biggest drawdown in 2017 was maybe less than 5 percent which is kind of unheard of. But boy, did we get volatility after that? Right. We, you know, 2018, 2020, 2022. So you did have three 20 plus percent corrections in a matter of four or five years there. But to your point, yeah, you just enjoy it when uptrends are happening. It's like sailing, you know, if the wind's at your back, enjoy it. You don't have to tack as hard in order to get somewhere. So you just, you sit back, you shut up and you enjoy it. And that's what we had for 2024. And does it continue right now? You know, we can continue to see rising 200 days, moving averages. We continue to see higher highs and higher lows at the same time. We have. Important lines in the sand that we can look at to see when that thesis, right? Cause we operate in thesis, you know, if the hypothesis is that the market's going to continue higher, well, mathematically it needs to go to higher prices,

Ian McMillan

That's

David Zarling

so we'll see.

Ian McMillan

works.

David Zarling

Yeah, I know again, not sexy, but it's just. The way it is and you know what for as good as Stocks were u. s. Stocks specifically in 2024, you know, it wasn't positive in 2024 treasuries

Ian McMillan

Terrible. I

David Zarling

Down 11%. So if you're sitting out there with a 60 40 portfolio, talk about putting an anchor on your boat.

Ian McMillan

I don't think we've owned long term treasuries for clients in I don't know four years.

David Zarling

Yeah, you know, that's one of my favorite charts.

Ian McMillan

I mean I

David Zarling

them.

Ian McMillan

mean it's chuh. You can't do it. I don't care right and then the whole arguments yield but you can go I mean again, you've heard us talk about this It's not like all of our clients have a risk tolerance of 100 percent equities, right? So, I mean we're involved in fixed income But it sure as heck isn't long duration U. S. Treasuries.

David Zarling

Right. I mean, for perspective's sake, you had convertible bonds up about 9 percent plus their yield. You had your triple B credit up about two and a half, plus it's about 8 percent yield. You have T bills now paying four and a half to five and a half percent. So there's places to be. I mean, even more, you know, if I can call it exotic, I don't know that it's exotic. Owning some Pacific floating rate

Ian McMillan

Floating, right? Yeah.

David Zarling

up about a percent, but yielding about nine percent. There's places to be, but to your point, treasuries. Not so much.

Ian McMillan

Terrible. Zero surprise, right? This is a rising rate environment until it is not. On the flip side of Treasuries going down, quite the development U. S. dollar.

David Zarling

Yeah.

Ian McMillan

So, what is this all about? Yeah.

David Zarling

Right. The dollar being up about 7 percent on the year breaking above a level we've talked about using DXY, a trade weighted dollar breaking above 100, one Oh one. Something that's been in place that level has where sellers have shown up since 2016. And now for all intents and purposes, we'll see where we go, but the next logical level using DXY would be somewhere near one 17. And I know you've highlighted done a great job highlighting here on the past. Is that good or bad? If we go to 117, is that good or bad?

Ian McMillan

I mean, so you just said I wasn't wearing this dollar up 7 percent in 2024. I mean, when we're talking about currencies, I think that's a pretty that's pretty solid move and it was not in a straight line.

David Zarling

No

Ian McMillan

but yeah, that's one of those kind of lame textbook rule of thumbs that gets thrown around strong dollar headwind for stocks. I mean and now again, I guess it could have been maybe with a weak dollar the s& p would have been up 35 last year I don't know,

David Zarling

right,

Ian McMillan

i'm it doesn't seem to be an issue I mean even gold kind of So we had dollar up seven percent gold priced in dollars was up. I mean it did better in stocks

David Zarling

right.

Ian McMillan

Gold did better than stocks last like slightly. I think gold's up like 28 maybe

David Zarling

Yeah Like when you talk that's a great point How many textbooks talk about a strong dollar with strong gold? That's not typically what you hear in your economic theory You would see weak dollar strong gold or strong dollar weak gold And then I know you highlighted as well, as good as gold did in dollars, just crushed it in other currencies. If you were in a

Ian McMillan

gosh. Yeah

David Zarling

you know, this podcast was Japanese centric, like we were broadcasting out of Tokyo and, you know, you were talking about equities versus. Gold, I your Nikkei was up 18 percent last year, but if you price gold and yen, I'm guessing that was a pretty, that, that was the place to be

Ian McMillan

I bet it was up like 50

David Zarling

33.

Ian McMillan

Okay.

David Zarling

Now I'm using a simple gold futures divided by yen dollar. There may be a better way to do that, but

Ian McMillan

No, I think that I think that displays the point perfectly

David Zarling

yeah it's about, you got about double if you were a Japanese investor and you had to invest in yen. That trade worked out great. And it is interesting that gold was as strong. What do you think about that? Gold being as strong as us equities, golden dollars being as strong as us equities. Price in dollars. What do you think about that? Because we've had That before,

Ian McMillan

yeah, we've had that before I know ryan gorman brought up So the last time that gold they're up together a lot But the last time that gold outperformed S& P When both were up. It's 2007.

David Zarling

Yeah. You did some good homework on this. So 05, 06, 07, 09, 2010, 11, 12, 16, 17, 19, 20, and 20, 2023

Ian McMillan

And I guess now 2024.

David Zarling

in now 2024 all years where S and P and gold were positive. But Ryan's point is 2007 was the last time they were both positive, but gold was better. And the obvious implication there would be potentially that, that right. We were all familiar with, I think everybody's ears perk up when you say 2007, 2008 is my guess. Anybody listening to this knows the market history of the great financial crisis, the mortgage crisis, housing crisis of 2008 in the first part of 2009. So it's worth paying attention to. I mean, it's not like. We just get to look at that and say, for sure, we're going to have a major correction, but it's worth saying if a correction unfolds in the math, we'll show us that because we mentioned lines in the sand that we can be looking at plus a 200 day moving average, that if we do have a a decent correction, 2025, a, we'll adapt to it, but B, Oh, wasn't it interesting what happened in 2024 with golden stocks it's worth looking at, I think,

Ian McMillan

I think so, too I would not and I would not have guessed that like I was when I saw that when you posted it because we share right we share in our team chat the three of us, interesting stuff that we see usually charts or some type of data point whether it's Dietrich or You know all the different zuccardi all the different stuff that gets posted that is And it'll never top price but I do think it's I don't want to say it's interesting, like, oh, it's interesting, and then I place it next to the toilet for reading material. I mean, it's interesting, I think it should be in the back of your head, and something to be aware of.

David Zarling

if it's environmental information,

Ian McMillan

Yeah.

David Zarling

it's kind of like seasonality, meaning you don't stay involved just based on seasonality. Use seasonality as an environmental indicator and is price confirming or refuting that indicator. Same thing with this situation with gold and stocks from 2024, same thing. For example, you're not all in cash right now just because of that, but you're aware of that in the background. Okay, there's a construction cone on the highway. Does that mean more are coming? Like, are we about to have a slowdown here?

Ian McMillan

Well, and I

David Zarling

have to tap the

Ian McMillan

something that I would say I witnessed in the, I think for sure Q4, but I would say it kind of grew throughout the year. Is the very literal takes on seasonality. They get passed around, you know, it'll say like, okay, on average, since 1952, you know, we know that December starts off weak and then usually bottoms around. The middle of the month. I believe that is the correct data.

David Zarling

Right.

Ian McMillan

So this year it didn't and we got this big. Oh I don't I mean it's I don't again. It's on it's like the whole why do we talk about when people quote the markets? On average up eight percent a year. Well, it's like never Between like five and eleven. It's always some kind of outlier ish number.

David Zarling

Yeah it's definitely an average defined by extremes.

Ian McMillan

So then we get, oh gosh, we didn't, you know, we didn't bottom, you know, stocks didn't stop going down on this December 16th. I don't know. I mean, we're back to Anyways, I just, I feel like the social media conversation around seasonality, which I do think seasonality is important, I think there's a lot of really broad principles and things there. But again, we talk about averages, and then when it doesn't happen, people feel some type of way about it.

David Zarling

Right. Well, I think, you know, speaking seasonally, there's the Santa Claus rally period,

Ian McMillan

Yes.

David Zarling

which is the last five trading days of the year, plus the first two of the next year. So we're now at that point today, meaning this is the final day of that Santa Claus rally period. And that's, it does have some significance going when we look back in time, where are we at with that? Are we positive in that?

Ian McMillan

I think we're gonna be negative. Even with today, let's say we were to close today, S& P's up 130 basis points. I mean, futures. So it's still be negative basically. Thanks to last week.

David Zarling

Is the party over then

Ian McMillan

Well we were right. We were negative Santa Claus rally last year. Is that right?

David Zarling

well, and I would add to that, the more important is the January barometer really just looking at

Ian McMillan

on there. Yeah.

David Zarling

how, you know, I know Jeffrey Hirsch highlighted this. He's from Stock Traders Almanac and, you know, does great follow up work on the work of his late father and as January goes, so goes the year is basically the message there. And that one has a little bit more statistical significance than the

Ian McMillan

be good. We're off to a good start two days in.

David Zarling

So it, it's like everything in markets. You can't. Take each data point in a vacuum. It's why we call it weight of evidence. You have to present all the evidence in the courtroom. Price is the final judge. And so if that is going to be a situation, well, we know that buyers have shown up on the S& P 500 at 58. 65. In November, December, and now potentially here in January, that if we hold this 5860, we'll call it level, well, that would be information confirming that buyers still have control of this market below that, do we have an intermediate correction on our hands? That's definitely possible that you have some type of corrective period, but it doesn't necessarily, even with that, you'd still have to clear. 5700, you'd still have to get below 5640, and then you have the 200 day moving average on the S& P currently sitting at 5560. So you have these construction cone markers on the side of the road that can kind of give us a heads up on. Do buyers really still have control of this market? Right now they do until those levels are cleared to the downside. Buyers have control.

Ian McMillan

I agree with that. And I want the market to go up

David Zarling

Yeah,

Ian McMillan

as much as everyone, but as much as anyone else, but December probably healthy. I mean, you know, you look at a price chart, I might try to go sideways and down, so I will take it.

David Zarling

for

Ian McMillan

I will take it. The correction through time versus correction through price.

David Zarling

Yeah, very true. I mean, S and P 500 hasn't gone anywhere for two months. So to your point, very nice consolidation. If this holds building out the auction process, you know, when you, even when you look at small caps using Russell 2000 futures, right, where we responded to a rising 200 day, you have important horizontal price levels where buyers have shown up since the beginning of October at the 2220 level. And then you have. Volume weighted average price from April of 2024, also marking that level that we're responding to. And so do small caps hold up here and you start to see breadth expand? Could be. I don't want to, I don't want to suggest that small cap performance is equal to breadth performance, but

Ian McMillan

Helps. Helps

David Zarling

it helps. Doesn't hurt. What else Ian

Ian McMillan

a lot more than the NASDAQ 100 going up.

David Zarling

Yeah, correct.

Ian McMillan

Crypto. Crypto had a nice 2024

David Zarling

Yeah.

Ian McMillan

in crypto related stocks. Very strong. All the ETFs. Bitcoin. Bitcoin still just much like equities kind of consolidating up here. Sitting around 98, 99, 000. Found support multiple times over the last six or seven weeks at 92, 000. So, holding in there for now.

David Zarling

Yeah. It's it.

Ian McMillan

something that's held up, you know, hey, bitcoins are priced in dollars.

David Zarling

Yep. Positive with a positive dollar worth paying attention to. And while international wasn't all that great, you do still have Argentina.

Ian McMillan

Argentina and Israel pretty much are lone places outside of U. S. borders. Argentina ARGT back to likely all time closing highs today. So. They have felt very little of the equity weakness. I know DAX German DAX was looking fine. Still looks fine. It's not an out performer,

David Zarling

But it's still in an uptrend,

Ian McMillan

but it's in an uptrend

David Zarling

correlated, it's kind of like the Dow Jones, you know, it's correlated, and so you want to pay attention to it, and while it's not an outperformer, it's still holding up nicely, it's good.

Ian McMillan

growth value. I would still say still in favor of growth, at least large, a large cap growth, large cap value, some

David Zarling

you even you, you even highlighted high beta versus low vol

Ian McMillan

I beta versus low ball.

David Zarling

To talk about that a little bit?

Ian McMillan

I think it's an important relationship. Again, like we said, something to keep an eye on to kind of put it up there with like high yield spreads. Just something to keep an eye on, and it's a little weak you know, that July sell off. It's still really been recovering off of that correction in equities back from July into, whatever it was, early August, Monday, August 5th, yep. I'd say it's fixed itself, and looks to be on the mend and potentially heading higher.

David Zarling

And you have, you know, sensitive areas or risk taking areas like semiconductors, cruise lines, airlines.

Ian McMillan

Airlines look great. Cruise lines look great. A lot of stuff in discretionary. I think Kevin has the discretionary workbook now.

David Zarling

Enjoy that,

Ian McMillan

and they look at XLY, right? I mean, there's, I would say, and of course, a lot of the comments you'll get, well, it's Amazon or it's Tesla. From an XLY standpoint, I get that, but beneath the surface, there's still I think there's a lot of pretty good stuff going on.

David Zarling

Well, in our

Ian McMillan

discretionary. Staples

David Zarling

weight consumer discretionary using RSPD. You know, pulling back, it broke out to new highs and has pulled back to that level in a very controlled manner without RSI getting oversold, a momentum indicator getting oversold. And do we see broad discretionary do well from this point? Time will tell, but it's a healthy looking chart. It's a healthy looking study of supply and demand. That's for sure. Totally agree with that. You know, it's not like we're sitting here talking about your risk off places, getting all the play. I think it's fair to say that healthcare still looks a little bit rough.

Ian McMillan

hitting new relative lows again. Materials. Materials probably moved into the top spot for worst sector right now. Jeez Louise.

David Zarling

True story. It just keeps heading lower.

Ian McMillan

Energy trying, maybe some type of mean reversion here for energy. We'll see.

David Zarling

Yeah, we will see. What are we seeing on oil that holding up? I know the, we don't want to

Ian McMillan

Yeah, big move. Big move back to 74 bucks. We're sitting at 67. So you've seen dollar go up. Oil up about 10 percent in the last three weeks. Interesting. Oil price in dollars was my point.

David Zarling

right

Ian McMillan

So, I don't know. Just interesting development.

David Zarling

and you better buy, it looks like you better buy your steak and put it in the freezer because those,

Ian McMillan

Cattle's getting expensive.

David Zarling

yeah, cattle's Ripper and Roran

Ian McMillan

Cocoa. Cocoa's expensive.

David Zarling

Put your chocolates in the freezer too. I can only imagine what those things look like priced in yen.

Ian McMillan

Coffee. Expensive. Yeah, look at that. Breakout for cattle.

David Zarling

So there's definitely, there's a,

Ian McMillan

gas was just back to two year highs.

David Zarling

yep, the Widowmaker, natural gas. It's

Ian McMillan

Alright, so then what? Oh, what should I feed my family this week? Rice? Rice is on a debt. Rice is just hitting new lows.

David Zarling

just give them pure sugar. You give them sugar's down.

Ian McMillan

Lean hogs, so maybe pork? We're

David Zarling

Yeah, give him some pork

Ian McMillan

eating more pork. Oats, orange juice

David Zarling

for sure, you know, could you know that I would say so you could just pour soy soybean oil on the rice, maybe add some sugar. Maybe that's good. Sounds terrible.

Ian McMillan

is expensive.

David Zarling

Yeah,

Ian McMillan

Copper is cheap, can't eat copper though. Probably wouldn't be good.

David Zarling

no. But yeah, 2020 24 was the year of every major currency pair struggling versus the dollar strength, US equity strength. But international you had to be really selective on where you had any exposure you know, we highlighted Argentina some spots in commodities, gold, which we talked about silver along with it, but copper and copper was positive on the year, but nothing really to write home about. So we'll see what 2025 brings. I mean, do we continue to see a downtrend in treasuries? Probably makes sense just from a standpoint of trends tend to trend. And if we're in a new 40 year upcycle and rates, that's, I mean, until the information changes, that's what we've got in 60, 40 portfolio. If you've caught one might want to pay attention to that

Ian McMillan

I'm telling you, don't hold out for the lower mortgage.

David Zarling

That's right.

Ian McMillan

don't think you want to play that game over the next decade.

David Zarling

Nope,

Ian McMillan

Don't.

David Zarling

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Ian McMillan

Yeah, good for those guys. Momentum had a good

David Zarling

real nice.

Ian McMillan

Lots of momentum funds did very well, beat the beat the benchmark, beat the S& P but a little birdie has told me that our sponsor may have been the best out of all those momentum funds. You'll have to go verify for yourself.

David Zarling

Well, that's it. You know, that's interesting. You bring up, so you look at something like. SPML versus S and P when you do that relationship, that's now breaking out to new highs.

Ian McMillan

Yep,

David Zarling

So as 2025 going to be a continuation of momentum, very well could be

Ian McMillan

that would be beautiful. You'll find no complaints from me.

David Zarling

no. And that's one of those factors that tends to persist and is one of the most prevalent factors in markets. We know that from different historical data sets and research papers that have been done that trends and generating alpha through momentum Is a factor that is viable that can, you know, it's kind of like understanding that you're in a forest because there's a bunch of trees and when you have tens continuing to move higher and momentum continue to be prevalent, you're in an uptrend and that's what we have on our hands. I'm sure 2025 we'll throw curve balls like every good market year does. It's not like markets move in a straight line and there's always a once in 100 year event that happens. Once a year because markets operate that way.

Ian McMillan

I think I read, so to your point on momentum, I think I read, and I'm trying to find this. Here it is. So, we talked about S& P has been it was up 20 percent in 2023, 2024. So, the 10 worst performing S& P stocks in 2023 were also down in 2024.

David Zarling

ah,

Ian McMillan

So, persistence to the downside, typically, I mean, just as equal as, Persistence to the upside. She had Enphase, FMC, Dollar General, Moderna, Pfizer. I will keep my comments to myself on those two. Estee Lauder. Paycom, Albemarle, a ES and Etsy all down two years in a row with the, I mean the broad market up. What, about 50% over the last two years?

David Zarling

Yup. I mean, but you know, Moderna is back to on a relevant basis versus S and P back to where we were pre COVID crash. So sad.

Ian McMillan

so sad,

David Zarling

No, I think that's, I think that's a great point to bring up as far as how trends persist. And so it was 2025, another period where trends persist. I don't, I can't tell you. I wish I could, because here's the truth. I don't know, but I do know that we can have a plan. We can adapt to different market environments using different important price levels that I highlighted already on this episode, that we can pay attention to these things. They can give us some clues on who's got control of this market. Cause in the end, it's about being on the right side of the trade. And if we see sellers take control of this market, invariably, it will lead to breaking those levels and breaking something like a 200 day moving average but one thing I know is 2025 won't be the same as 2024. And I'm not talking about uptrend. I'm just talking about what does it look like between now and December 31st, 2025, and it almost goes so fast,

Ian McMillan

so fast.

David Zarling

you know, it's crazy. Here we are January 3rd. And you know, before you know, it'll be July 4th. We'll be celebrating independence. And then I feel like from that point to Christmas is just a blink.

Ian McMillan

It is.

David Zarling

I don't know. Maybe that's just my age and maybe Connor has a different experience because he's younger. Maybe it feels like a really long time,

Ian McMillan

I wonder if it'll slow down for you. You got two out of the house now.

David Zarling

right?

Ian McMillan

if it'll slow down at all once you're Then it'll be too slow.

David Zarling

That'll be,

Ian McMillan

Once you're empty you and Emily are empty nesters, it'll be too slow and

David Zarling

yeah, you'll get, you're gonna get real annoyed with me real fast. Like does he alphabetize his memes? Like how is he

Ian McMillan

How does he find them so fast?

David Zarling

Yes, how does he do this? Why is he, stop talking to me. That's very possible. Well, Ian love doing this podcast with you. It's a great start to 2025. Anything else you want to highlight for our listeners before we sign off?

Ian McMillan

You know? You know, just If you hear me sniffling, that's me wiping my crocodile tears for Moderna and Pfizer. Being down so massively off the highs. But no, just, I You know? I don't know what What hand we're going to be dealt but we'll watch the trends as they unfold.

David Zarling

yep, we will adapt. So appreciate it, Ian. Thanks for being on here. You know, next week, whether it's you and Kevin, Or we're on the following week. Appreciate you. Thanks for the great 2024 and I'm excited for 2025. Thanks for everybody listening. Make sure you share it with your friends, your family. Give us a high ranking that lets us know that what we're providing to you is valuable. Thanks everybody.

Ian McMillan

Have a great weekend, everyone.