The Wire - September 16, 2024

//The Wire//2330Z September 16, 2024//

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//BLUF: DETAILS OF SECOND TRUMP SHOOTING REMAIN SUSPICIOUS. GAS PIPELINE EXPLODES IN TEXAS.//

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-HomeFront-

Florida: The suspect who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump yesterday afternoon has been identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, an activist heavily involved in the Ukrainian War as an advocate for western volunteers. All of the suspect’s social media accounts have been purged from existence, likely in response to federal censorship requests.

Texas: This afternoon a natural gas pipeline exploded in La Porte, following a motor vehicle accident (MVA) that resulted in a valve being struck, causing a substantial fire. Local evacuations were reported due to the intensity of the fire, however no injuries have been reported by local media. AC: The circumstances leading up to the initial MVA are unclear; local authorities have not stated whether or not this was indeed an accident, or the result of a malign actor.

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Analyst Comments: As one might expect, the details regarding the second Trump assassination attempt remain largely unconfirmed. However, considering the importance and significance of current events, some analytical leeway is to be expected. As such, the details that have been released (or mostly discovered on social media) are even more suspicious than the first attempt. However, as the suspect is still alive for the time being, the chances for follow-on information remain more likely than the previous attempt: The suspect having a very large online presence, many contacts within government agencies (due to his highly-suspect work to recruit volunteers for Ukraine), and his highly-documented activist work all give a much more complex picture than the previous effort to target Trump. If the suspect remains alive, more information is likely to become available to the public in due time, however this potential remains uncertain.

Regarding the USSS response, even fewer details have been released. Considering the suspect does not appear to have successfully used his weapon, many might believe the Secret Service’s actions to be a success. However, one must remember that close protection details are usually the last line of defense for a protectee. Considering the “zero-fail” nature of the USSS, if any malign actor is even able to get within rifle range of the protectee in the first place, this would be a failure of the highest order. Even moreso if the potential shooter remained alive to egress from the area.

It is not clear how the suspect knew that Trump would be playing golf at that time and place, nor is it known how the suspect would be able to occupy a position that allowed for a comparatively high chance of success. How (or if) the suspect knew that Trump was only one or two holes away is also not clear, with this detail alone causing questions of whether or not the suspect had prior knowledge of Trump’s movement. However, if the suspect had laid an ambush site and waited for Trump to make his way around the course, this could have been the reason for why the suspect was able to get well within rifle range of Trump.

Many may liken this to be another cascading series of failures among the USSS, when the more specific details of the engagement are factored in. The suspect was able to know where Trump was with shocking accuracy, had time to conceal himself in the foliage along a high-traffic roadway that is hard to approach without being spotted, and construct a fighting position that included at least two homemade bulletproof panels for protection. One major unknown detail pertains to how long the suspect remained in his hide site at the perimeter fence before being spotted and engaged. The construction of a hasty fighting position clearly indicates the suspect had vastly more time on his hands than he needed to be operationally effe