Episode 8 - Open for Business

In this week's episode, host Franklin Shelby analyzes the efforts by states across the country to re-open the economy and get Americans back work. Specifically, we look at Gov. Greg Abbott's efforts in Texas and Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida.

We then discuss the media's narratives attached to certain states' efforts to do so. Franklin also reviews the IHME's (University of Washington) latest coronavirus projections as we head into the summer months.

If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe on iTunes and leave a rating/review. You can also find out more about the show and its host on twitter at FranklinFOTU and Fate of the Union, searching Fate of the Union on Medium, and at franklinfotu@gmail.com. 

Transcript

This week’s episode is dedicated to reviewing the efforts of states across the country to open up the economy and get Americans back to work. As we will see, both the states efforts and the media’s response to these efforts has become a largely partisan issue. 

But first, lets revisit the IHME numbers regarding the projections of corona virus infections and deaths. As a refresher, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation or IHME has become a prominent model for projections concerning covid 19 after the imperial college of london’s model quickly appeared to be overstated. A few weeks ago we addressed the IHME’s corona virus death projections. At the time, we noted that the June first date in the projections forecasted over 70000 deaths, and a few hundred deaths spread out over the next couple months thorugh august 4th. We also noted that the 70000 mark on june 1st was a slight increase over the previsou projections for that date which was just under 69000. However, as we also noted, the projected dates for the next two months through august 4th had been about cut in half.

So, here’s where the numbers are now on the date of recording – 5/21/20. Now, the projected deaths for the US as of June 1st is just under 111000. As of august 4th, the projected deaths as a result of covid 19 stands at 143,357. 

So that’s obvisouly a stark contrast and a steep increase the last projections we took a look at. It’s been framed by many on the left that the reason for this spike in projected deaths is tied to Americans either disobeying stay at home orders and social distancing guidelines, or states easing these rules and thus individuals have been coming into contact much more with each other as a result. However, the real answer may lie in the number of tests being performed. If there is a rise in availability of testing, then we should reasonably expect a rise in projected deaths since we would be discovering more virus infections in the process. 

For example, lets look at Texas – a state with a relatively large population and one that has been at the forefront of the states opening back up. This is from ABC News. Texas began reopening after its stay-at-home order was lifted on April 30. Restaurants are open for in-person dining at 25% capacity. Movie theaters and malls are also open at 25% capacity.

“Texas has seen a steady rise in novel coronavirus cases and fatalities since reopening just over two weeks ago. There are now 45,198 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. That is an increase of 1,347 cases from Thursday to Friday. The new numbers have not yet been recorded for Saturday.

The state also experienced its highest and second-highest daily death toll just a day apart. On Thursday, 58 deaths were recorded in 24 hours and Friday that number dropped only slightly to 56, according to the health department. The total number of fatalities is at 1,272

Gov. Greg Abbott's communications director John Wittman told ABC News that the amount of testing has doubled since reopening, contributing to the rise in cases.

"Since [COVID-19 testing] started, we did 330,000 tests in March and April. Since May 1, we have done over 330,000 -- so in 16 days we have doubled our testing from the previous entire two months," Wittman said. 

The state has tested nearly 646,000 people out of a population of 29 million. Cases are most likely higher because of how few people have been tested.”

Incredibly, it’s not until the very last sentence of the article do we get the explanation for the rise in covid cases. Moreover, the fact that reporting is coming out on a two week lag is also crucial to remember. 

What the piece does not touch upon, but is vitally important to remember, is the percentage of infections related to the total number of people tested, and then the percentage of deaths from covid compared to the total number of infections along with the total population in question. These types of analyses will more accurately depict the nature of the virus in certain parts of the country. In Texas, there have been 770,241 tests and 51,323 cases as of may 20th. Also, there have been 1,419 deaths resulting from the virus of the same date.

6.66% cases out of tests; 2.76% death rate comparing deaths to number of cases;  130,172 infections, 86300 deaths in us according to IHME estimates as of may 14th. The national average for the death rate out of the number of infections in about 5.92%. So Texas numbers regarding the death rate are comparable to those taken from the national as a whole. Texas is within one percentage point of the national numbers while still starting to open up the economy.

Here’s another interesting review of the virus from Avik Roy, President of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity.  The FREO Official website states that it is a non-profit think tank focused on expanding economic opportunity to those who least have it. Roy looks at the corona virus numbers compared to other potentially fatal hazards in the US from recent years. 

For example, he tweeted a picture showing that even when accounting for a 150,000 estimated total deaths from the virus (which is slightly higher than IHME’s current 143,000 projected deaths), the virus is comparable or even less fatal than other causes in the US. In 2016, heart disease killed 635 thousand Americans; unintentional injuries 160 thousand; chronic low respiratory disease just under 156 thousand. So, according to Roy, even when rounding up current projected virus deaths, it is no more deadly than several other fatal causes in the US. Moreover, it is comparable to other leading causes of death in being overwhelmingly concentrated in Americans 65 years old or older.

This type of analysis is a more comprehensive review of the virus’ impact in the same vein as previous statements made by senator ron Johnson from Wisconsin. In a previous episode, we reviewed the senator’s statement early on in the pandemic in which he noted that car accidents account for tens of thousands of deaths per year, and yet millions of Americans voluntarily drive every day. We discusses that this statement was simply an analogy that stood for the idea that at a certain point an actions’ potentially fatal consequences, while certainly present and possible, ceased to be a reasonable impediment that stopped a person from engaging in an activity. Thirty three thousand plus car accident deaths per year obviously does not stop Americans from driving out of fear of possibly fatal consequences.

Here, Roy posits numbers that demonstrate that this virus cannot be reasonably viewed as a more deadly threat to the American people than other well-known causes of death. Combine this with the general axiom put forth by those like senator Johnson that Americans are not deterred from acting in some ways by distantly deadly possibilities. Thus, it is reasonable at this point in time to start opening up the economy. The rise in availability of testing only strengthens this plan.

So going forward I think the most useful numbers to keep an eye on are number of infections, and number of infections compared to number of tests. Similarly, we should keep an eye on number of virus deaths compared to the number tested. If the death rate, either rationally or within a certain locality remains around 6% then a rise in the number of infections is not posing any more of a deadly threat in terms of prognosis for any given infected individual, putting aside senior citizens. Moreover, we should keep tabs on the number of tests insofar as it may be the true answer to why more coronavirus diagnoses are being made and not because of opening the states back up.