“What is your SDory, Saeed Langarudi?”
Interviewee: Saeed Langarudi
Interviewer: Christine Tang
Interview Date: 2020/07/23
Introduction
Hello, SD-cast listeners. My name is Christine Tang. I am an Interdisciplinary PhD Student in System Dynamics (SD) at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) and am the WPI SD Social Media Manager. In this podcast, I will interview someone in the System Dynamics/Systems Thinking community. This series is called “What is your SDory?”
This is Episode 2. Titled: “What is your SDory, Saeed Langarudi?”
Biography
Saeed Langarudi is a Research Assistant Professor at New Mexico State University. He earned his PhD in System Dynamics and Economics from WPI. He builds ecological economics and natural resources management models for the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute.
Interview
Christine: Thank you for joining us today, Saeed.
Saeed: Thank you very much for having me.
Christine: When and how did you ‘discover’ System Dynamics?
Saeed: The first time I heard about system dynamics was, I think, about 14 years ago when I was a masters student at Isfahan University of Technology in Iran. I took a course which was called “Dynamic Systems.” This was actually a misnomer due to bad translation from English to Farsi. This mistake is actually very common among native English speakers too. Many people think the term “dynamics” is the plural of the term “dynamic” which is wrong. The ‘s’ at the end of the word “dynamics” refers to “sciences” so the term “system dynamics” means the science or study of dynamic phenomena from [a] systems perspective. In fact, the term “system” is an adjective here. Not a noun. And yes, that was the first time I heard and learned about system dynamics. The course was taught by Prof. Nader Shetab who later became my thesis advisor.
Christine: What was the first (system dynamics) model you encountered?
Saeed: The first model I encountered was an insurgency management model which was developed by Ed Anderson. The model tells the story of Anglo-Irish civil conflicts. I was so fascinated that using system dynamics could apply mathematical models and numerical simulation to such soft problems. After all these years, I think that model is still one of my favorites. Maybe it’s nostalgia. Haha. I don’t know. But yeah, that’s the first model I encountered.
Christine: What was the first model you built?
Saeed: The first model...I assume your question, I mean that’s also for the previous question, I assume that you are asking about system dynamics models, right?
Christine: Yeah
Saeed: Or computer simulation models because we all create models from early ages. Different models. Anyway, so I also assume that you are asking about the first model that I built on my own, right? Because we all make models as exercises, practices, [these] kinds of things...but I don’t think that should count...so the first model that I built on my own was an extension to Professor Ali Mashayekhi, his dissertation model. The original model was to investigate Iran’s strategy of economic development based on oil resources, oil money basically. I decided to use the model for my masters thesis because I wanted to analyze Iran’s energy economy policies. The original model, however, lacked energy production and trade modules which kind of limited its policy space so I wanted to build a model to fill this gap basically. I chose this model because, at the time, it was the only serious system dynamics model available for the case of Iran so basically, I had no other choice [Saeed laughs. Christine is also smiling and laughing along but muted her microphone to reduce noise]. It was both good and bad. It was good because I didn’t have to review so many different models. It was bad because the model was written in DYNAMO which was obsolete at that time so I called Prof. Mashayekhi to see if he had the model in a modern format like Vensim or Stella. At that time, actually, I only had iThink software, not Stella. Anyway, he did not have the model so I had to create, basically re-create the whole model from scratch in a modern software using DYNAMO codes that were available from the appendix of the dissertation. It was not very difficult for me because I had learned system dynamics from George Richardson’s book Introduction to System Dynamics using DYNAMO. Also, in our system dynamics class at Isfahan University of Technology, we had to write DYNAMO codes using pen and paper [laughs]...and that was in 2000...I guess, 7? Anyway, I re-created the model in both iThink and Vensim. Then, I added the detailed oil and gas production and trade sectors to it. These new sectors expanded the energy policy space of the original model and...okay, I think I am talking too much. That is basically my first system dynamics model.
Christine: No, it’s okay. These interviews are for talking. [Christine is laughing but cut the noise out of this audio because she was mainly blowing a lot of air onto the microphone. Not a pleasant sound. She’ll try to “haha” laugh in the future instead of laughing with a closed mouth.]
Saeed: [Laughs] Yeah.
Christine: So...speaking of DYNAMO and equations. Do you think because you learned DYNAMO first and you learned how to write equations, that makes you a better modeler? And I know you have a very controversial opinion, [Saeed and Christine laugh] well, not controversial but...what are your thoughts on using software versus learning from equations?
Saeed: [Laughing] Oh no…
Christine: [Laughing] I threw in that question. Raafat wanted me to ask you that in this interview actually.
Saeed: [Laughing] So...that’s a...that’s a very interesting question so....So I believe that system dynamicists should develop this skill. I mean programming is...is a necessity for modelers, dynamic simulation modelers anyway--system dynamics, agent-based. I mean those who are doing this should have this skill; otherwise, they would not be able to understand what’s really going on under the hood. And yeah, to your previous question, I think that using DYNAMO codes and using program codes to learn system dynamics, using pen and paper, and doing a lot of mental simulation exercises made me a better modeler. I cannot say that I am an excellent modeler /* “Saeed is an excellent modeler.” - Christine */ but, that helped me a lot to become a better modeler. But, yeah, I can tell you more about my philosophy later if you want [laughs] regarding the software.
Christine: We plan to have a CLM /* which stands for Collective Learning Meeting */ about this and invite Karim and invite other people who develop the software. It will be a showdown.
[Laughter]
Saeed: The time that [someone] .was talking about isee systems’ new features, I was actually very tempted to jump in and then ask these hard questions but I realized that everybody was cheering and was very excited about that so I didn’t want to, you know, change the mood. So..but yeah, I think that is a very serious conversation that we need to have in our community and society. We’ll see...
Christine: What are you currently working on?
Saeed: The biggest projects that I am working on include both modeling and exploratory research. What area that I am working on is the complexity of dynamic interactions between water and agriculture. The current trend of agriculture in arid and semi-arid region is not really sustainable. That’s actually a global trend. We are either depleting our natural resources or seeing the agricultural communities get older and older and eventually disappear. I am trying to figure out how we can sustain...create a balance between agriculture and ecology. So that is basically the main area that I’m working in.
A closely related topic that I’m working on is the dynamics of information perception. The complexity in agriculture and ecology interactions from complexity in natural systems, in human decisions and the interplay between them. We already know a good deal of natural rules, physical rules and relationships so that’s not the problem but…Our lack of knowledge basically is the area of decision making and how these are connected to the natural systems. My research is focused on the dynamics of decision making. For example, all humans measure something, then report it, perceive it, and act upon it. In my opinion, our models are too general, basically, to represent these relationships. We need more accuracy. I would like to see if greater accuracy and modeling such phenomena can improve our understanding of the system’s complexity and whether it could lead to better policies or not.
Christine: What wiSDom do you have for students/those new to SD/ST?
Saeed: [Laughs] So I think I have to enter that discussion that I was trying to avoid. First of all, I think I am too young to give any word of wisdom. I mean...sometimes when we talk about wisdom it sounds like you are too old. So [laughs] I can share some of my ideas, not perhaps wisdom, regarding system dynamics...and that is, basically, that idea of developing...over-developing, basically, software. As I said before, I think we, system dynamicists and those who do modeling and dynamic simulation, should develop a good understanding of mathematics and computer programming especially. We need to understand the basic math behind numerical integration, difference equations or integrals. That’s something I discovered through the courses that I teach. I realized that the students are really struggling to understand what is really going on. Some of them, of course, not all of them. Mainly, because they do not have a good understanding of integration and basics of computer programming, these kinds of things. So from this point of view, I kind of disagree with the idea of...that [i.e. disagree] is kind of like a big word but I really disagree with the idea of making system dynamics accessible to all.
I know that many people, many big names actually believe in that. They want to make system dynamics more accessible to all. But that really scares me. To me it is like [saying] “let’s make everybody...a physician and then go and cure people.” And the current software development, I think, is going into this direction. I believe that system dynamics software have developed too far and that could be a double-edged sword.
These advancements have had profound impact on accessibility of modeling which was the original idea...that I disagree with.
The modeling tools are now available to a very broad range of students, scholars and practitioners. They have helped us to build models faster but that is actually the problem. That is the other side of the coin and the quality of the models could potentially suffer from this hasty modeling. I call that hasty modeling. You know the ability to develop models faster makes us to pay less attention to the accuracy of our assumptions. We also pay less attention to the meaning or interpretation of the simulation results. To me, it is like the difference between speaking and writing. When we talk, we pay less attention to the meaning of what we are saying compared to when we write. When we write, we think more deeply about the ideas that we want to communicate because we have more time to think about those things so naturally, writing is more accurate than speaking because it is slower, so I advocate the idea of slow modeling vs. hasty modeling. But these are just my personal views which may be totally wrong [laughs].
I’m thinking actually about this idea that tests some of these hypotheses. Maybe we could test some of these hypotheses and see if we can find evidence for these claims that I am making here. But yeah, that’s it. [Laughs]
Christine: You’re actually not the first person I’ve heard compare system [dynamicists] to physicians. The first person I heard to do that is Jay Forrester in his Forrester Seminar Series, talking about how system dynamics should be like a profession [where] you go through studying biology to going through med school to going through an internship and training with someone who is an expert.
Saeed: Yeah, that is probably where I heard that for the first time. I think I adopted this thinking from those seminars.
Christine: I’ve also heard talks about [the System Dynamics Society] possibly doing a certification type program...and maybe having people to recertify but that would be painful. But that’s what they do for physicians.
Saeed: And that’s what WPI was doing, right? Giving certificates for system dynamics, if I am not wrong?
Christine: Yes.
Saeed: I don’t know if they still do that or not but they were doing that.
Christine: Yes, we have a certificate program at WPI. You take five courses.
/* Then we got off topic for a bit and talked about editing and adding fun music to this podcast episode. Christine cut that part out. */
Okay, so the last question: Do you have any fun or funny system dynamics or systems thinking stories that you are willing to share?
Saeed: Ah, that’s the most difficult question. I think you should ask this from Raafat or Tim [Laughs]. They are experts in, you know, telling funny stories. SDories.
What I find funny is that, for a long time, my family did not believe that system dynamics modeling was a serious work or profession. And that’s thanks to the fun user interface of system dynamics software, especially ithink and Stella. I remember that the first time I was developing a serious model was for my masters thesis as I described. I was very close to defending my thesis and I had to work on my model to get all the results and finish writing. At that time we had iThink version 4 which really looked like a computer game at that time. I’m talking about 2008-2009 and graphical interfaces for simulation modelling were not so common. I mean those kinds of graphics were not so common in the software that we use [at] the time. That was around the time of Iranian New Year and I was in Isfahan. I was living with my sister and her family. For the holidays, they wanted to go to north [Iran] where our parents and other relatives live. They asked me to go with them, naturally, but I refused because I had a lot of work and I had to finish my thesis. When I told them I could not go because of my thesis then my nephew cried “Saeed is lying! He is not busy with work. He is always playing games on his laptop.” [Laughs] He was referring to that software. I mean iThink. He was thinking that I was always playing. They actually believed him [Laughs]. They thought I was really playing and not working. That was a long time ago but the story is still, I think, relevant today. My wife, Mahsa, always jokes about this. She says that “You are just playing. You are not working. Creating cobweb on the screen.”
So anyway, It’s not perhaps really funny but it is coming from a person who is not really funny. Not surprising.
Christine: I think people are funny in different ways. Sometimes we are just situationally funny. I think we tend to laugh a lot when we hang out together so…*shrug*
[Laughter]
Ending
Hello, SD-cast listeners. Sorry for the abrupt end to the interview. I cut the rest of the dialogue because we were chatting and joking about random non-system dynamics things like The Big Bang Theory and Sheldon Cooper’s “Bazinga!” catchphrase.
Anyway, I would also like to acknowledge that Saeed Langarudi and Raafat Zaini started the WPI Collective Learning Meetings (CLMs) as a safe weekly meeting place for people to present their work in progress and obtain feedback from peers. Most WPI System Dynamics CLMs are open to the public.
Raafat also suggested that I share the poems that I write about SD-cast guests. Here is a poem I wrote about Saeed.
Dr. Saeed L. Poem
Time will tell
Says Saeed L.
About software advances
That creates chances
For many; however,
Haste makes waste
Slow is better
Carefully construct your equations and code
Especially your reference mode
Make sure you check your math
And the labels on your graph
Thank you for listening to SD-cast
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Music:
Intro and End
“Limelight” by Podington Bear is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 International License. I cut the music track from 0:465-1:20 and moved the rest of the song to the end of the podcast
https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Podington_Bear/Haplessly_Happy/Limelight
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
Starting at ~16:07
Johannes Brahms – Hungarian Dance No. 5 in G minor
https://www.bbc.co.uk/teach/ten-pieces/classical-music-johannes-brahms-hungarian-dance/zfj4y9q
Saeed requested that I add this song to the podcast episode. I thought it fit best in the fun(ny) SDory section.
