Leading Local Insights
Leading Local Insights
The Money Trail: Political Shakeups and Down Ballot Races Captivating Local Ad Dollars
The 2024 election landscape is anything but constant. Recent changes at the top of the Democratic ticket, the assassination attempts, and key non-presidential races are impacting local political advertising spend. Get much needed clarity from BIA’s Nicole Ovadia, VP Forecasting and Analysis, and Steve Passwaiter, President of Silver Oak Political, in this podcast episode.
Listen as Nicole and Steve discuss:
- BIA’s new (and increased) political ad forecast projections driven by heightened fundraising.
- How Kamala Harris might utilize inherited campaign funds differently from the Biden campaign.
- Financial dynamics of pivotal Senate races in Montana, Ohio, and Arizona, and their effects on voter turnout.
- Importance of traditionally blue and swing states and why the Ohio Senate race could break spending records.
- Growing influence of state Supreme Court and legislative races on local political advertising.
This episode touches on the evolving landscape of political advertising, and sets the stage for the next episode, where trends in CTV and OTT political spending will be explored.
Hello and welcome to BIA Advisory Services' Leading Local Insights podcast, where we discuss and analyze all things related to local advertising spending. In this special episode, we are focused on the 2024 election this November. This is actually the second of a series that we're working on all about the 2024 election, everything, media spending, local advertising. Last time, we focused on the presidential race, which we will update on because there's been some updates, but in this episode we are going to focus on the non-presidential races, or those quote down-ballot races. A lot of money will be spent in these races and, as we will discuss, we'll talk about which markets, which media and which races you really need to watch.
Nicole Ovadia:My name is Nicole Ovadia and I'm the VP of Forecasting and Analysis for BIA Advisory Services. Once again, I am honored to be joined by Steve Passwaiter, president of Silver Oak, a DC-based political consulting firm. Steve is a monthly contributor to Ad Age, where he writes a column on political advertising, and I happen to think he's a smart, funny and insightful guy. Steve, thank you so much for joining us today and please say hi to all of your fans.
Steve Passwaiter:Well, thank you, Nicole. That's a generous introduction, to say the least, and very pleased to be joining you once again for this webinar.
Nicole Ovadia:Not too much has happened in the last couple of weeks. Right, it's been quiet.
Steve Passwaiter:No, no, it's been. That's the thing about politics, right? It's so boring and nothing much ever happens and there's never anything to talk about in this world for sure. But we've been kind of working against that here in the last few weeks. It's very difficult to keep up with the news cycles these days, given all the developments that are going on across the country.
Nicole Ovadia:Yeah, so just to kind of, you know, level set. So last we spoke. Since that time there's been an assassination attempt, there's been a change on the Democratic side of the ticket and BIA Advisory Services. We've actually updated our forecast. It happened to happen over the course of the last couple of weeks as well. Our forecast we have taken from $11.1 billion to $11.7 billion, so we're increasing our expectations for this political cycle. Basically, what we're seeing is more fundraising and more dollars, and so we think that both parties have the resources available to them, or will, in order to spend at higher levels than we were first predicting. We don't quite think it'll get over $12 billion, but things are a little healthier than we thought back in March when we last did our update. So, steve, knowing that we made these adjustments and some of the other things that have happened, you know, come to light in the last couple of weeks, how do you feel about that? What other expectations? What are you hearing from others in terms of expectations for spending overall for this cycle?
Steve Passwaiter:I think your new estimate is right in the ballpark, and most of the estimates that I've been paying attention to are focusing somewhere in maybe the high 10 billions to roughly 12 billion, in maybe the high 10 billions to roughly 12 billion. That's where most of them are landing. So your forecast is certainly within that range and it does make sense, given what we've seen happen. You know there's sort of been the presidential side of it where Trump was way behind. Then the trial in New York happens. He's found guilty. All of a sudden, money has started flowing in to Mr Trump and at the end of June he actually had more cash on him than President Biden, which was strange that never happens, right.
Steve Passwaiter:And that was the first that Trump actually had a financial advantage. And now that the president has decided to withdraw from the race, we're seeing all this grassroots fundraising come into the Harris campaign and whether she inherits the money from Mr Biden or not. There are a couple of little legal complications in there that the FEC will have to sort through, but it seems like we're coming and going in waves and one side gets the momentum, then the other side gets the momentum, but the bottom line is there seems to be an almost endless pool of contributions for all of these candidates to take advantage of for the rest of the 100 plus days in this election cycle.
Nicole Ovadia:Yeah, I mean the most interesting thing and, I think, most important thing you just said is that donations are still flowing right. I mean, when you and I are discussing what will the political advertising spend be, the first thing we look at is the donations, and recent events on both sides of the ticket have galvanized both sides. If you will have opened up the wallets even further, whereas a couple of weeks ago we saw some hesitation, especially on the Democratic side. Oh, I might not donate, I'm not going to give my money unless Biden drops out. That has come to fruition and so everyone who was quote holding back their dollars in theory, we'll open up on both sides 100 percent, which, again, the more money they raise, the more money they spend.
Steve Passwaiter:It always comes down to what the donors do, and you can't promote your campaign if you can't raise funds. One begets the other, clearly, and without it you're stuck, and I believe the donors have had a lot of sway and influence over what's happened to Joe Biden in the last week, and the fact that they were closing their wallets to his candidacy is something that, while he still had a fair amount of money handy, it's very expensive coming down the homestretch of the campaign and you can't survive on what you had. That wasn't going to work and that I'm certain had a lot to do with the decision that he took regarding his status in the race?
Nicole Ovadia:Absolutely. And one more question on the presidential race before we move to down ballot. But, as you noted, harris is likely to get Biden's dollars. Let's make the assumption that she does. Can you talk a little bit about how you expect her to spend the money and how that might be different from how Biden would have spent the money? For example, I'm expecting to see the Democrats and the Republicans ramp up their spending in August a little earlier than they might have quote introducing Harris to the country, if you will and Trump doing opposite you know doing opposite messaging a little earlier, like we'll see that coming in now and into early August, whereas if Biden had remained on the ticket, they might have held their money a little later and started spending in September or October. What are your thoughts on spending patterns or what you might see out of the Harris campaign?
Steve Passwaiter:It has been a quiet week in presidential spending. The only thing that has happened so far this week and we're recording this on the 24th the only thing that's happened so far is that the Biden campaign pulled about $50,000 of advertising that they had going this week.
Steve Passwaiter:I believe Georgia and Pennsylvania were the two states where they were active and they pulled those ads To your original point. I believe that's right If you're the Democrats. Joe Biden has been in public life for over 50 years, a well-known commodity. He's been president for the last four. Everybody knows who he is and pretty much what he stood for.
Steve Passwaiter:Kamala Harris is a bit of a different is in a bit of a different situation in that she is not so well-known to the country, to the country. One of the issues of being the vice president is, you know, sometimes, like we used to say about kids, they're seen and not heard. Vice presidents are usually not seen and not heard. That's a big problem. So I believe they will have to do an introduction to position her in the minds of the voters. To position her in the minds of the voters Obviously the Republicans, and whether it's the Trump campaign or it's one of the PACs supporting the former president he will need to define Harris in his own right and with the voters that are supporting him or those that are leaning towards supporting him.
Steve Passwaiter:They're going to have to put Kamala Harris's record out there and let people make decisions about whether they think she's got what it takes to be the president of the United States, and does that all have to happen a little earlier? It might. Certainly, the Democrats have their convention this month and they want to present a very united front going into Chicago. Getting behind Kamala Harris early makes a lot of sense, and that's what they're clearly trying to do, and they would most likely have come out of the convention with a pretty heavy ad schedule. Now we know that's absolutely certainly going to happen. And then we've also got the issue of early voting People. Early voting deadlines are coming up and that makes her getting out there and putting a record on the line and talking about what she believes and what she would do if she sits behind the Resolute desk is something she really will need to do to solidify the party behind her.
Nicole Ovadia:Absolutely, yeah, I mean. So that's very interesting to see how the change at the top of the ticket will change the messaging from both the Democrats and the Republicans. And that leads me into the bulk of the conversation we're going to have on this podcast today, which is the down ballot races. So what I'd like to do actually is I want to start with in what ways did changing the ticket, the top of the ticket on the Democratic side, change the conversation that we're going to be having about issues related to this election? So, for example, I mean I was expecting abortion to be a major, a major push for the Democrats.
Nicole Ovadia:With Biden at the top of the ticket, being less people being less enthused on the Democratic side, I was expecting the Democrats to push the abortion, messaging the pro-life, pro-choice you know conversation that's happening, messaging the pro-life, pro-choice conversation that's happening, and those ballot initiatives to get people to come out and vote and also hope that Biden would get votes along those lines. So, with Harris at the top of the ticket, the get out and vote might not be what the Democrats are pushing. So does that change the conversation about other issues related to gun control? Does that change the conversation about other issues related to gun control?
Steve Passwaiter:When it comes to Dobbs, which is certainly at the center of all this, there might be an argument to be made that having a woman pushing that message from the top of the ticket might be more impactful than having President Biden do it. And it's already been an issue in many, many, many Democratic ads already, and I would believe that it will continue to dominate the subject matter that Democrats put forth for the rest of this cycle. You're correct, in the enthusiasm gap. There has been a notable enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats and there are those who believe and I tend to be one of those that the move to put these, these ballot measures in these, in certain states that would enshrine that right into state institutions, was a get out the vote effort, and you know certainly they want to get the legislation passed. But it's also a convenient get out the vote for a candidate for whom most people might not have been too terribly enthused to get out, and so there are a number of states that already have it on the ballo There's a few other states where the signatures have been gathered and they're currently being validated, which would put the measure on the ballot as well, but Florida is one of those states.
Steve Passwaiter:Florida also has a legalization of marijuana on the ballot, and I think that might have been a couple of reasons. You might remember earlier in the year when President Biden said he thought Florida was in play again and that may have been part of the reason why he was trying to push that hypothesis out there, to anybody who wanted to listen to it, that he could win Florida, despite the fact that the GOP has about a million more registered voters in Florida than the Democrats do. We'll see.
Nicole Ovadia:Right, he was saying that around, you know, when DeSantis was peaking. So I mean, there's a lot of there's a lot of wishful thinking, of course, that that is spoken about, but you just that was a great segue. Actually, I'm going to move to down ballot races right now and I'm going to start with Montana. Well, actually, I'm going to start with the Senate and you're going to take me to Montana, because that's going to be the answer in terms of what are you seeing in terms of Senate races that are keeping your attention. And the reason why I said Montana is because they just put an abortion initiative on the ballot and I agree, I think it was for the same reason, just to get more Democrats to come out and vote. But that I mean that state alone is off the charts. I'm sure you're going to talk about Ohio too, but if you could talk about some of the Senate races that are attracting the most dollars, have attracted the most dollars and will attract the most dollars going forward for the rest of this cycle.
Steve Passwaiter:Sure, there really aren't any surprises in the Senate. We know the states where control of the Senate is going to be determined in November. From the Democratic perspective, West Virginia is lost, they know it, and there's not really much there. So that means that they're fighting very diligently to hang on to John Tester's seat in Montana and Sherrod Brown's seat in Ohio and Bob Casey's seat in Pennsylvania. We've got an open seat in Michigan where the Democrats are trying to hang on. They're also seeing what they can do about keeping Tammy Baldwin from Wisconsin in the Senate. And then you've got that open seat in Arizona. That's attracting a lot of attention, and even next door in New Mexico. We'll have to see what happens there, because you've got the daughter of a former Republican senator running against an incumbent Democrat there and no one really put New Mexico into play. But New Mexico has been showing some signs. We'll have to see what the change at the top of the ticket has done. We'll have to see what the change at the top of the ticket has done. Mexico has a leans Democrat rating on it now for the presidential race. It has not supported a Republican candidate in quite some time and has been pretty reliably blue. I should also make sure not to leave out Nevada as well, where Jackie Posen is running against Sam Brown.
Steve Passwaiter:Brown got a nice mention for Mr Trump in his acceptance speech at the RNC last week. Brown's a veteran was rather badly hurt in the service to his country and, not surprisingly, that's where the money's going right, when all the money's going. I mean, right now Ohio sits at the top, but a lot of that is based on the fact that Ohio had a pretty interesting Republican primary back in the spring. That put a lot of money out there. But having said that, the Democrats are vigorously defending Sherrod Brown's record. He's been very much on the attack and one of the more resilient politicians in a state that is increasingly moving red.
Steve Passwaiter:Sherrod Brown is one of those very resilient candidates. But you hear 300 million in Ohio and it's like well, okay, you got Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton, Youngstown, You've got all these media markets in Ohio that can handle that kind of stuff. Don't want to leave the people in Wheeling Steubenville out either. I'll start getting nasty emails from people, but there's a lot of media markets to handle that in Ohio and a lot of reasonably decent sized media markets. When you move to Montana, that's a very different story.
Nicole Ovadia:There's no impressions.
Steve Passwaiter:Right. So when you see that there's $200 million already committed in that Senate race in Montana between Tester and Sheehy, where exactly is all that money going?
Nicole Ovadia:How Right he is like where exactly is all?
Steve Passwaiter:that money going and, not surprisingly, buying media in Montana is getting to be more and more difficult because the places that you would normally look for eyeballs and making impressions with voters are quickly disappearing in a tsunami of demand, are quickly disappearing in a tsunami of demand, particularly when you look at linear. Things like CTV and cable are not so simple in those places where the state is so huge and everybody is so spread out. So, if you think in broadcast television, every year there's less and less reach, which means it takes more spots now to buy the same amount of weight that you would have bought two years ago or four years ago and, with that in mind, creates an artificial spike in pricing because it's not like the inventory is expanding at the same kind of rate that you know. The audience declines are going. Therefore it gets expensive, prohibitively expensive, very quickly and that's what has to be going on in Montana, because we were talking about the ballot initiative earlier.
Steve Passwaiter:But you also have a governor's race. You also have a mildly competitive race in Montana's first congressional district where Ryan Zinke is in a rematch from 2022, and Zinke is not without his controversy and he's kind of a headline grabber. That race isn't a swing race necessarily, but it could be competitive and there is money being spent. So we sort of feel for all these folks trying to compete for, for media in that state when there's such a huge demand already there and we're not even inside Labor Day yet. So we know a lot of the, a lot of the money's you know already committed, but there will clearly be more. There's more money to be spent in that period of time.
Nicole Ovadia:Absolutely so what I'm hearing from you, I mean I'm I think that at the end of the day, when all this is done, the Ohio race will be one of the top five non-presidential races spending of all time. And on the Montana side, it sounds like you and I need to open up a newspaper in Helena and shut it down like middle of November and we'll be good to go Like that's. You know, just another business idea for us. We. Can, you know, more impressions in Montana? Whatever you can possibly do, yeah, I agree.
Nicole Ovadia:Yeah, turning the page a little bit. Oh, there you go. Just to keep the newspaper analogy going. Let's move on to the house. So I don't think you've got much to say in terms of the House, but what are you looking at? I feel like the House. Earlier on, you know months, months back, we were thinking there might have been a way that either the Democrats or the Republicans could take everything. And if that were on the table you know, the House, the Senate and the White House for either party I think that would have changed the way that this entire election is happening. But it doesn't seem to be that very likely for one party to take over all three and I feel like that's going to change the spending of some of these House races. That might have once been OK. Well, if we could get control of the House, we should spend money if it's tenable. It doesn't seem to be the case. So in the House right now, what are you seeing? Are there any races you're keeping an eye on that are of significant note?
Steve Passwaiter:There are always interesting things happening in the House. Most of the actions so far where the big money has been to date have been in these notable primaries.
Nicole Ovadia:That happens.
Steve Passwaiter:The biggest spend thus far this year remains New York 16, which was the battle with Jamal Bowman and Westchester County executive Latimer, and Latimer was a rather prominent winner in that one. That one wasn't even close and it hadn't been polling to be close and it turned out the polling and the results were pretty much right next to each other as far as where they thought the margin was. And Bowman, I think that race was about a $25 million race. Now that's primarily New York city. So while that's good money in New York, 25 million, you know, goes a lot farther in Montana than it does.
Nicole Ovadia:That's a Tuesday in New York, oh yeah.
Steve Passwaiter:And but still that that race is is the leader. There was also the earlier primary election this year to replace Santos.
Nicole Ovadia:Santos.
Steve Passwaiter:And that race was about $20 million. What was interesting about the Bowman race was the involvement of the United Democracy Project, which is an arm of AIPAC. It's the political arm of AIPAC and AIPAC clearly was somewhat unsettled by Jamal Bowman's comments regarding things that have been happening in the Middle East and they put out of that $25 million. They put about $15 million of that in ads that were against Bowman, pretty much calling him out for not being a really good Democrat because he didn't agree with 100 percent of the Biden agenda.
Steve Passwaiter:That same process is now happening in Missouri's first district, which is currently held by Cori Bush, another member of the squad. They're also making the same case. They're also making the same case. They're getting behind Wesley Bell, who I believe was the county district attorney, I believe maybe for St Louis, and they're putting the money behind Bell in that race to try to get Cori Bush unseated. And we'll see whether they're successful. The Missouri primary is coming up. They're successful, the Missouri primaries coming up and she's pretty much. There's been some polling indicating that she's been slipping behind a bit and we'll we'll have to see. This has been one of the bigger stories. But the house itself.
Steve Passwaiter:It's such a narrow margin on the Republican side that it's only going to take a handful of seats, and that's probably a good thing, because there really aren't many more than a handful of seats that are really considered toss-ups this year's election, and we could likely have a discussion about how is it that a 435 seat house of representatives only has a handful of seats that are really competitive, and we could lament the power of incumbency, and it is. There aren't many. One I always like to keep an eye on is the 2nd District of Nebraska.
Nicole Ovadia:Yeah.
Steve Passwaiter:Nebraska is a deep, deep hue of red pretty much every year. The way Nebraska awards its electoral votes Whoever wins the state overall gets two votes and then I think the rest get divided between the congressional districts. And Nebraska too, which includes the Omaha area, is a much friendlier district towards Democrats than Republicans. The Nebraska legislature did redraw the district a bit to pull in more rural areas to try to help the Republican side, because that's Nebraska right.
Steve Passwaiter:There was even some talk about changing the way that they awarded the votes and kind of a winner take all thing, but there wasn't enough time in the legislative session to do that out there and that can be an important electoral vote. Joe biden won that electoral vote in 2020, even though the district re-elected don bacon, who is a republican, uh, former general in that, uh, in that in that district. Um, they, they re reelected him, but they voted for Biden overall and that's an important electoral vote and probably remains that. And some of the one of the Democratic presidential packs has money booked for Omaha post Labor Day. So the Democrats see that you can make the same argument about Maine's second district, which is held by Jared Golden, who's a Democrat, former military, very distinguished military record, who is running ads in his district saying I don't go along with everything my party believes in. I vote. I'm an independent, just like pretty much a lot of people up here in Maine, and I vote for what the district says, not what my party says. And he was citing examples of how because Maine's second congressional district has gone Republican and Maine does the same thing, so Maine too and Nebraska too, kind of balance each other out. Trump won that electoral vote the last time and Nebraska too is always knock down, drag out race. It's a rematch from the 22 candidates and Democrats see an opportunity to potentially pick up a seat there and I'm sure they will do everything in their power to try to pull that off.
Steve Passwaiter:You know some of the other seats. There's a couple in Pennsylvania. California obviously has some seats there. Where you are in New York State, new York 19 is getting looked at as a real pickup opportunity and the Democrats did put an abortion issue on the ballot in New York State this year, thinking that perhaps that would help voter turnout in some of those swing districts and might help them get more Democrats elected. That's how close it is and it's going to be kind of fascinating to see whether Democrats can pull those few seats over and win and take control of the House of Representatives again, of Representatives Again. You know the Senate does look like it's going Republican. It'll be close. I think the Senate is probably leaning more toward the Republican side at this point just because Democrats are defending so many more seats than Republicans are.
Nicole Ovadia:Mm-hmm, very interesting. Yeah, I think it's fascinating to see, yeah, how much blue money, if you will, will be spent in Nebraska this year. And you know, just keeping our eyes on on pockets of spending and why and how, and it really a lot of this depends on what the Democrats and Republicans think are possible. Right, they're going to throw their money behind races that they think they have a chance, and that continues to evolve and change. So we will continue to evolve and change our forecast as it does.
Nicole Ovadia:One last thing that I wanted to talk about not just the Senate, not just the House, but there are other races as well Governors, state Supreme Court you alluded to that earlier especially when it comes to abortion rights and women's rights and codifying abortion access in certain states, or limiting abortion access in certain states or limiting there are a lot of different issues on the ballots related to that, but the state Supreme Court races are becoming more and more important, or Americans are realizing their importance their local, if you will state, supreme Court's importance over their lives and paying attention to those races a little bit more. Are there any governor or state Supreme Court races that you're keeping an eye on? That, again, will draw people out to the polls for other reasons besides the presidential election.
Steve Passwaiter:There's really one big governor's race this year, and maybe you could argue there's two where potential changes could take place. North Carolina is the most prominent of those states. Governor Cooper is term limited and we have a race between Attorney General Stein and Lieutenant Governor Robinson, and that one will probably be worth keeping eyes on, because the North Carolina state legislature is as it's currently construed is, so overwhelmingly Republican that they actually could override any vetoes that Governor Cooper would issue. And Cooper is also being banned.
Steve Passwaiter:His name is being bandied about as a partial, you know possible vice president, you know, to join vice president Harris on the top of the democratic ticket. That's one that's interesting. And then you've also got the New Hampshire race, where governor Sununu has decided that he's he's had enough and we've got, I think, a pretty spirited race up there. Kelly Ayotte, the former Republican senator, has jumped in on the Republican side, but that could be kind of close. Sununu was pretty popular and was, I'm sure. Had he run for re-election he would have most likely have won. But maybe that puts the race in New Hampshire in a little bit of doubt and gives the Democrats an opportunity for a pickup in a state that I'm sure they'd love to have.
Nicole Ovadia:So interesting. Ok, so we have covered a lot of topics today, and I think that this was a very insightful and very helpful conversation. So, first and foremost, I very much want to thank you, steve. Thank you for being here, thank you for the conversation and thank you for all of your amazing insights. I hope that you'll be able to join us again as we continue this series, and do you have any parting thoughts or any summary that you'd like to share with the audience?
Steve Passwaiter:Do you have any parting thoughts or any summary that you'd like to share with the audience? What we do know is this is one of the big reasons that people are raising money hand over fist the way they are is because of how competitive this is, which reflects how closely divided we are as a nation on the directions that we would prefer to see the country take in the next four years. And it is that competition that drives the donations, which drives the spending that all of our friends in media look forward to, and you know, get their catcher's mitts out and get ready to take in all the money and there will be money. And I think you had talked about state Supreme courts and state legislatures. One thing that I advise my media clients about is don't lose track of what's happening in your own backyard. It's always fun to swing for the fences here in DC where the money is, but increasingly state Supreme Court races and state legislative races are increasingly well funded.
Steve Passwaiter:You think about last year here in Virginia, where there was nearly 70 million dollars spent on state legislative races here, and now that instead of one federal decision regarding reproductive rights, we now have 50 individual decisions about reproductive rights and a lot of time and attention and therefore money is being spent in these places getting to know the people in your local parties at the county level, making sure you're eating a lot of rubber chicken at banquets, and really getting to understand that political is a vertical.
Steve Passwaiter:If you're going to do well in it, it's going to require the same kind of attention that you would give to any other prominent vertical, whether that's automotive or retail or professional services or whatever it happens to be. It needs time and attention and it's not just an even year thing. You have to do it in the off year. Sometimes the off year is really where you need to make your case, because if you do it, you do it in the even years. You run the risk that people are too busy and really don't hear what you're saying, because in their brain they're thinking of the 20 different things they have to execute before the end of the day. So just a little food for thought there for folks on the SAL side.
Nicole Ovadia:I completely agree with you and I love how you stress the importance of local. I mean, that's our bread and butter here at BIA Advisory Services. We focus on local. We think that's what people have the most control over in terms of the dollars being spent in their markets and we look forward to bringing you more in this series related to political advertising. .
Nicole Ovadia:In the next episode we're expecting to cover all things CTV and OTT. So we didn't go into the specific media and how the dollars would be spent, but there's a lot of nuance and that is changing, so we're going to dive into that. We've got some experts lined up to talk about CTV OTT trends in terms of political spending, both at the presidential level and, as you said, it's the local level where that's growing and exploding, so very excited to bring that podcast to you next time. Until then, I ask our audience if you have any questions, comments, concerns, please feel free to email us at info at BIA dot com. And until next time, I hope you all have a wonderful day, keep consuming all of this media, keep keeping up with all of everything that's going on politically, and we'll be back in a couple of weeks to talk about CTV OTT, and I hope you have a wonderful afternoon.