Canadian Intelligence Eh

Quick Hits - Episode 211: Terrorism experts make lots of bad predictions - where is the mea culpa?

Phil Gurski

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We often read or listen to 'experts' tell us with utter confidence that such-and-such is going to happen to us in the days ahead.  And yet, there are few if any studies that measure the accuracy of such predictions.  If it turns out that many prognoses fall far from the mark  are these people really 'experts'?  Borealis issues the challenge for a serious look at the nature and reliability of expertise in the national security world.